2020 House election thread

[Ghost of LL 15492]

15 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Another one gone.

Duffy’s district, encompassing Wisconsin’s vast rural North Country, is unlikely to show up high on Democratic target lists: Trump won the district by 20 points in 2016, and while Democrats have historically competed in this part of the Midwest, rural areas have been moving steadily away from the party — as seen in the neighboring 8th District of Minnesota, which Republicans easily won in a tough year for the GOP following the retirement of longtime Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/republican-rep-sean-duffy-to-resign-next-month-cites-complications-related-to-his-wifes-pregnancy/2019/08/26/b1a676c8-c819-11e9-a4f3-c081a126de70_story.html

Interestingly, his wife is that awful homophobic bitch Rachel from the San Francisco season of The Real World (you Gen Xers know who I mean).

Meanwhile, she's 47.  I suddenly feel very old.

[YChang 3431]

14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Interestingly, his wife is that awful homophobic bitch Rachel from the San Francisco season of The Real World (you Gen Xers know who I mean).

Meanwhile, she's 47.  I suddenly feel very old.

They're both real world alums... aiyaiyai 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Another one gone.

Duffy’s district, encompassing Wisconsin’s vast rural North Country, is unlikely to show up high on Democratic target lists: Trump won the district by 20 points in 2016, and while Democrats have historically competed in this part of the Midwest, rural areas have been moving steadily away from the party — as seen in the neighboring 8th District of Minnesota, which Republicans easily won in a tough year for the GOP following the retirement of longtime Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/republican-rep-sean-duffy-to-resign-next-month-cites-complications-related-to-his-wifes-pregnancy/2019/08/26/b1a676c8-c819-11e9-a4f3-c081a126de70_story.html

I’m glad. Just so I don’t have to occasionally see him on tv anymore. He always comes on and acts like a complete asshole while saying idiotic things.

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Interestingly, his wife is that awful homophobic bitch Rachel from the San Francisco season of The Real World (you Gen Xers know who I mean).

Meanwhile, she's 47.  I suddenly feel very old.

Just googled her name, and... of course:

Rachel Campos-Duffy^[1] (born October 22, 1971) is an American television personality. She first appeared on television in 1994 as a cast member on the MTV reality television series The Real World: San Francisco, before moving onto to work as a television host. She was a guest host on the ABC talk show The View, before moving onto Fox News,^[2] where she has guest-hosted the show Outnumbered.^[3]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Wisconsin's Dem governor has to call for a special election to replace Duffy since his resignation takes place next month. 

Quote

Duffy's current term expires in 2021. Gov. Tony Evers must call a special election to fill the seat once Duffy resigns. The election must occur within 92 to 122 days of the governor's order for an election. Depending on when that call is made, a general election could occur on April 7, 2020, to coincide with the presidential preference primary and state Supreme Court election. 

It could be interesting if they add the special election on the same day as the presidential primary. Presumably there won't be a strong reason for GOP voters to vote that day as Trump doesn't have any competition. The Dem race still may be going on and it looks like Wisconsin is something like the 32nd or 33rd state to have a primary/caucus by then.

Anyway most likely the Dem and Rep running for Duffy's spot will fight again in Nov 2020 unless the loser gets killed.

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Just googled her name, and... of course:

Rachel Campos-Duffy^[1] (born October 22, 1971) is an American television personality. She first appeared on television in 1994 as a cast member on the MTV reality television series The Real World: San Francisco, before moving onto to work as a television host. She was a guest host on the ABC talk show The View, before moving onto Fox News,^[2] where she has guest-hosted the show Outnumbered.^[3]

What an incredibly shitty career path. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Another one maybe.

Solid red. It was R v. R in the last election. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

It’s been noted that many of the gop house members haven’t been in the minority in some time, if at all for some.  The minority has next to nothing to do. Now if they thought there was a good chance of winning the house back next year, they only have to stick it out another 16-17 months and take over again.  They must not like the chances. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

38 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Another one maybe.

Solid red. It was R v. R in the last election. 

 

I don’t care if it’s the reddest seat in the country. The more the better. 

One thing to take into consideration, Texas has a much earlier filing deadline than the other states. A lot of our representatives had less time to make a decision. I’m hoping we will see at least 10-15 more GOP walk away.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It’s been noted that many of the gop house members haven’t been in the minority in some time, if at all for some.  The minority has next to nothing to do. Now if they thought there was a good chance of winning the house back next year, they only have to stick it out another 16-17 months and take over again.  They must not like the chances. 

I can’t imagine repubs taking the house next year. Surburban women who drove us to victory in 2018 will be motivated to vote against him in 2020 and I think the generic ballot is still D+6 or D+7.

[tx 3 putt 76395]

7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m glad. Just so I don’t have to occasionally see him on tv anymore. He always comes on and acts like a complete asshole while saying idiotic things.

I’m sure his Fox News special contributor appearances are about to pick up

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/trump-gop-north-carolina-election-1476636

 

repubs seem worried about a special election in North Carolina 09 coming up. I don’t like the Dems chances, but I’m still hoping for the best.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

56 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/trump-gop-north-carolina-election-1476636

 

repubs seem worried about a special election in North Carolina 09 coming up. I don’t like the Dems chances, but I’m still hoping for the best.

Sad that Trump has to worry about a race that has zero impact on the national picture. I could see if this seat was deciding the House majority but its not.

[Voldemort86 2259]

28 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sad that Trump has to worry about a race that has zero impact on the national picture. I could see if this seat was deciding the House majority but its not.

Repubs are dumping tons of money into already, they’re sending all the big names.  This race is a much bigger deal for repubs than it is for us. 

If we win, some repubs think it will be a backbreaker in the house. It will kill any and all momentum and even more GOP will retire.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://eqvanalytics.com/nc09-dashboard.html

here’s a very good website to track NC-09.

 

the race appears to be going well for Mcready ( Dems). Repubs need this one badly, it will be fun to watch them squirm here.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://eqvanalytics.com/nc09-dashboard.html

here’s a very good website to track NC-09.

 

the race appears to be going well for Mcready ( Dems). Repubs need this one badly, it will be fun to watch them squirm here.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

13 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://eqvanalytics.com/nc09-dashboard.html

here’s a very good website to track NC-09.

 

the race appears to be going well for Mcready ( Dems). Repubs need this one badly, it will be fun to watch them squirm here.

that's a great website.  and it looks to be a curbstomping this time.  

 

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I think I remember reading that Trump was going down to NC09 the night before the election to help out.  If early returns keep going this way and it looks like a blowout is in the works, I wonder if his hatred of being associated with a loser will keep him away?

[Voldemort86 2259]

46 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think I remember reading that Trump was going down to NC09 the night before the election to help out.  If early returns keep going this way and it looks like a blowout is in the works, I wonder if his hatred of being associated with a loser will keep him away?

That would crack me up. I wouldn’t be surprised if he still shows up tho. The Republican Party has already invested tons of resources and they’re sending important people there. Might as well go all out. He might be able to save them 1 point or 2.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

May this scenario be repeated throughout the land.

If in fact it holds.

Dan Bishop's prospects in this election continue to flag as Republican voters mount a surprisingly weak turnout in Mecklenburg's Charlotte suburb and neighboring Union County. They're home to 60% of the district's registered voters, and 76% of its Republicans. Losing in either of them would seal Bishop's fate in this election...and the data suggests that he's losing in Mecklenburg right now, where Democrats have upped their share of ballot-casters from 46% at this point in 2018 to an amazing 52% today. This stunning Democratic advance in Mecklenburg has proven stubbornly resilient throughout the Early Voting period. Whatever the Bishop campaign is doing to try to stop the blood loss, it isn't working.

[RayDog 682]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

That would crack me up. I wouldn’t be surprised if he still shows up tho. The Republican Party has already invested tons of resources and they’re sending important people there. Might as well go all out. He might be able to save them 1 point or 2.

I think Trump would cost a point or two. Democrats are itching to vote against Trump and the best way to get out more Democratic vote is to put Trump on the ballot indirectly.

This is such an important race as a predictor of 2020. If Republican voter enthusiasm stays this low, we will see something unprecedented. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

45 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I think Trump would cost a point or two. Democrats are itching to vote against Trump and the best way to get out more Democratic vote is to put Trump on the ballot indirectly.

This is such an important race as a predictor of 2020. If Republican voter enthusiasm stays this low, we will see something unprecedented. 

The thing that keeps bailing republicans out is Supreme Court vacancies. Those fucktards have had one for 2016 and 2018. I pray that there isn’t one for 2020.

the Supreme Court motivates conservatives like no other. We need RBG to hang in there.

Edited August 30, 2019 by Voldemort86

[RayDog 682]

I suspect that if RGB survives for another year someone will make Clarence Thomas an offer he can't refuse so the Republicans have another supreme court hearing in the run-up to the election. That is about the only way the Republicans can get their enthusiasm level up again to the level it was in 2018.

If not that they will have to be creative and find something else. Another caravan scare won't be enough.

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, RayDog said:

I suspect that if RGB survives for another year someone will make Clarence Thomas an offer he can't refuse so the Republicans have another supreme court hearing in the run-up to the election. That is about the only way the Republicans can get their enthusiasm level up again to the level it was in 2018.

If not that they will have to be creative and find something else. Another caravan scare won't be enough.

Do you really think there will be a vacancy? Thomas will be 72 next summer. That’s “young” for a Supreme Court Justice. By comparison, Kennedy is 83 and Breyer is 81

 

I’m SICK of that shit. They always seem to come up at the worst time for dems.

Edited August 30, 2019 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2259]

Not much seems to have changed after today’s update in NC-09

Quote

It's still early days yet, and anything can happen between now and election day. But this statistic suggests that a significant number of NC09 Republicans, faced with the choice of voting for either a Democrat or a trump enabler, are voting instead with their butts, sitting this one out. Meanwhile, Democrats are fired up and voting. That's a perfect storm for Republican candidate Dan Bishop, who can't let go of the tiger's tail (his full-throated allegiance to Trump) at this late date, even though it's killing him at the ballot box.

It’s hard to imagine repubs gaining ground this weekend. Most republican are men and football is starting all over the country Friday and Saturday. Maybe I’m over analyzing it, but it’s just a guess.

[Js1 85110]

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

12 hours ago, RayDog said:

I suspect that if RGB survives for another year someone will make Clarence Thomas an offer he can't refuse so the Republicans have another supreme court hearing in the run-up to the election. That is about the only way the Republicans can get their enthusiasm level up again to the level it was in 2018.

If not that they will have to be creative and find something else. Another caravan scare won't be enough.

There is zero chance of this happening. Clarence Thomas will leave the Supreme Court about two years after he is actually dead, maybe more if the president at the time is a dem. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[Js1 85110]

24 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

There is zero chance of this happening. Clarence Thomas will leave the Supreme Court about two years after he is actually dead, maybe more if the president at the time is a dem. 

He'll be replaced by his crazy bitch of a wife. 

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

There is zero chance of this happening. Clarence Thomas will leave the Supreme Court about two years after he is actually dead, maybe more if the president at the time is a dem. 

I hope you are right.

Republicans will try to pull something to get enthusiasm up and a supreme Court vacancy and war are my two biggest fears.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

I hope you are right.

Republicans will try to pull something to get enthusiasm up and a supreme Court vacancy and war are my two biggest fears.

I’d say the American public would see right thru it if the GOP started a war, but it seemed to work real well for W

[Js1 85110]

Suck a fat chode, NCGOP.

Quote

On Tuesday, a three-judge panel delivered a major blow against Republican gerrymandering when it struck down North Carolina's state Senate and state House districts for violating the rights of Democratic voters.

The state court ruled that these maps, designed to entrench Republican rule, ran afoul of the state constitution’s guarantee of free and fair elections. These illegal districts were so extreme that they helped Republicans to maintain their legislative majorities in 2018's elections even though Democratic candidates won more votes statewide. If fairer districts are implemented for 2020, they could put Democrats in striking distance of a majority in one or both chambers.

Importantly, because this case was litigated solely under North Carolina’s state constitution, the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year that the U.S. Constitution prohibits challenges to partisan gerrymandering did not present an obstacle to the plaintiffs. And for the same reason, this decision should be insulated from federal review, much like a ruling from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court last year that replaced a Republican congressional gerrymander with a much fairer map.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Suck a fat chode, NCGOP.

 

BOOM

 

one step closer to a fairer map in North Carolina. I’m assuming the repubs will appeal now and the case will get kicked to the North Carolina state Supreme Court for a final say. The makeup of that court is 6 Dems and 1 republican. Good luck douchebags. Oh well at least they have a win in heavily republican gerrymandered NC-09 to fall back on. 

 

But wait......

 

Quote

Dan Bishop's prospects in this election are weighed down by GOP voters' surprisingly weak turnout in Mecklenburg's Charlotte suburb and neighboring Union County. That chunk of westernmost NC09 is home to 60% of the district's registered voters, and 76% of its Republicans. Losing in either Mecklenburg or Union would seal Bishop's fate in this election.

That's bad news for Bishop, because losing he is. In Mecklenburg County, Democrats have upped their share of ballot-casters from 46% of major-party voters at this point in 2018 to an amazing 51% today (unchanged from our last update). Meanwhile, in Union County, GOP voters continue to hold their traditional edge (Democrats still amount to less than half of major-party voters there), but Dems have improved their share from 35% last year to 43% today (also unchanged from our last update). These are stunning advances for Dems, given that Mecklenburg and Union form the deep red heart of NC09, which gerrymanderers counted on to yield a decade-long GOP advantage in this district.

Democrats have also modestly increased their already dominant shares in the district's other 6 counties. But Mecklenburg and Union are the crown jewels in this race.

Still 4 more early vote updates to look forward too, but it looks pretty good the Dems right now. Some GOP experts think if the GOP loses here,  it could result in even more house GOP retirements before 2020.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Voldemort86

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Why haven't I heard from this guy before?

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Why haven't I heard from this guy before?

 

A lot of people who vote GOP actually are.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

13 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Why haven't I heard from this guy before?

 

 

I dunno, but he had me at #unionstrong....and Lulz at his follow up

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Update in North Carolina gerrymandering case. 

No word as of yet if the repubs will appeal. They probably won’t because NC Supreme Court is 6 Dems and 1 repub. The part below is very gratifying. 

Quote

The court is leaving it up to the Republican state legislature to redraw the maps, but it is setting specific guidelines for them to follow: The new maps must be redrawn by September 18 (within two weeks), lawmakers can’t use data to try to draw a partisan advantage, and the redrawing process must be public. The court will also appoint a referee to review the redrawn maps before they are enacted, and if the legislature tries to delay, the referee could redraw the maps itself.

 The “referee” will probably make sure that the map is a little more skewed towards democrats. Right now, the congressional delegation in North Carolina is an unbelievably fucked up 10 repubs- 3 democrats. Yeah...... democrats won the popular vote statewide here in 2018.

i’m hoping for 8-5 repubs or 7-6 repubs after this. They still won the 2010 election and they are still going to draw the new map, but I can’t imagine them getting away with an egregiously rigged one ever again.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Here’s a link to the article for those interested.

 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/3/20848087/north-carolina-court-republican-gerrymander-state-legislature-map

[Js1 85110]

And another one gone...

Dude, the Texas GOP is flipping out.  Olson, Marchant, Conaway, Flores, Hurd....

R+16 seat, because it contains the 2 worst parts of Texas - College Station and Waco. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Js1 85110]

If indeed 2 more, that would be 7 - 32% of the GOP delegation in Texas.  In one cycle calling it quits. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

I can not stress how awful being in the minority is. Losing votes, nobody returns your phone calls, just endless days of answering constituent mail and being ignored.

I was on on a conference call the other day and we were discussing a lobbying strategy and somebody wanted to discuss ranking members and one of my buddies chimed in with "fuck 'em, they aren't worth the time to file the uber reimbursement"

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

i've seen stuff before saying you get higher turnout for open seats.  that'll be an interesting effect of all this.  maybe actual upballot impact.

[RDCanecutter 26281]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

R+16 seat, because it contains the 2 worst parts of Texas - College Station and Waco. 

The Huntsville-Livingston-Jasper Klanoplex try so hard at what they do, and yet you just left them off, as if they didn't exist.

Edited September 4, 2019 by RDCanecutter

[Post Oak 20187]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Flores has always been terrible.  I'm glad he's gone.  I wonder what kind of maga cretin they're going to run in his place.

[RDCanecutter 26281]

3 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Flores has always been terrible.  I'm glad he's gone.  I wonder what kind of maga cretin they're going to run in his place.

Lived in Texas before. Rested and Ready. Already owns Hat.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

That old fart carter has to be one of the people rumored to be stepping down.

[Js1 85110]

7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

That old fart carter has to be one of the people rumored to be stepping down.

Gohmert (66) + R+25
Wright (66) R+9
Brady (64) R+28
Granger (76) R+18
Thornberry (61) R+33
Weber (66) R+12
Williams (69) R+11
Carter (77) R+10
Babin (71) R+26

These are some of the most likely because (1) they're getting up there in age; (2) they don't want to spend their final years in the minority, (3) their seats are relatively safe and (4) they're too old to potentially be introducing themselves to new voters in 2022 after redistricting 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Js1

[Bateshorn 9905]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Carter
Mac Thornberry

I'd be shocked if Thornberry runs for reelection.  He's exhausted his tenure on Armed Services and has no other seniority.  I don't get a Don Young "ima stay here until I croak" vibe off him.

He can ride off to K street and print money lobbying for the defense industrial complex for the rest of time.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


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