2020 House election thread

[Js1 85110]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


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She's right behind Carter in age.  I could see her and Carter both calling it quits soon enough.  

[cactusflinthead 27594]

22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


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That's my bet. 

All of these retirements in safer districts are going to draw resources and candidates that aren't going somewhere else.

I don't know if there's a Chet Edwards that can run and win a heavy R+ district, but I sure hope someone will make the effort to draw fire. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by cactusflinthead

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

And another one gone...

Dude, the Texas GOP is flipping out.  Olson, Marchant, Conaway, Flores, Hurd....

R+16 seat, because it contains the 2 worst parts of Texas - College Station and Waco. 

 

 

[Bateshorn 9905]

52 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

She's ranking on Approps.  It's about the only minority job where you get any run.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Gohmert (66) + R+25
Wright (66) R+9
Brady (64) R+28
Granger (76) R+18
Thornberry (61) R+33
Weber (66) R+12
Williams (69) R+11
Carter (77) R+10
Babin (71) R+26

These are some of the most likely because (1) they're getting up there in age; (2) they don't want to spend their final years in the minority, (3) their seats are relatively safe and (4) they're too old to potentially be introducing themselves to new voters in 2022 after redistricting 

Brady and granger are wishful thinking in my opinion. We will probably be stuck with them until they die in office.

[Js1 85110]

Democratic retirement - CA-53 Susan Davis (D) retires.  She's 75, so no big surprise.

D+38 seat that gave Clinton 64.5%, Harris 60%, Newsom 64.9% and Feinstein 54.9%.  She won her race 69.1-30.9 in 2018. Extremely safe.  She's been in Congress for 19 years, doesn't chair any committees and her seat is safe. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Js1

[Js1 85110]

Retirement day 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Retirement day 

 

The bad thing about this....... isn’t Liz Cheney the #2 republican now?

Wyoming has an opening in the senate and I hope she takes it. I shudder at the possibility of a speaker Cheney from Wyoming. What a horrible speaker she would be. Wyoming is still in the 1930’s.

[Js1 85110]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The bad thing about this....... isn’t Liz Cheney the #2 republican now?

Wyoming has an opening in the senate and I hope she takes it. I shudder at the possibility of a speaker Cheney from Wyoming. What a horrible speaker she would be. Wyoming is still in the 1930’s.

Seniority is not leadership. He’s #2 in terms of current tenure. She’s #3 in leadership. Don Young and Sensenbrenner have served since before Reagan was president. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Seniority is not leadership. He’s #2 in terms of current tenure. She’s #3 in leadership. Don Young and Sensenbrenner have served since before Reagan was president. 

Ahh yes....

 

I actually like don young tho. He’s the rare republican who votes for marijuana reform bills. 

[Hornius Emeritus 12420]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Seniority is not leadership. He’s #2 in terms of current tenure. She’s #3 in leadership. Don Young and Sensenbrenner have served since before Reagan was president. 

 

Sensenbrenner is retiring.
 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Uh...ok?

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

early voting has ended for special election house race NC09. Here’s an update.

Quote

Heavily gerrymandered NC09 encompasses two large, affluent, mostly suburban and usually Republican-friendly counties - Union and a small wedge of Mecklenburg - plus six small, rural, mostly majority-minority counties.

Mecklenburg and Union are the key to Republicans' historical advantage in NC09. Their large white Republican majorities enabled gerrymandering GOP legislators to lump rural Democratic-friendly counties into NC09 without risking the GOP's hold on this congressional seat, thus keeping those Democratic votes out of neighboring districts where they might have netted Democrats a fourth seat in the House.

But Mecklenburg/Union's Republican advantage slipped badly this year. Democrats improved their share in Mecklenburg from 45% of its early voters in 2018 to 49% this year, and in Union from 36% to 39%. If this turnout trend continues into election day, Republican Dan Bishop is doomed.

Democrats also enjoyed improved Early Voting share performance in Robeson, Anson, Scotland, and Bladen counties (the latter was the site of 2018's GOP-funded election fraud scheme), held their ground in Richmond County, and lost a tiny bit of their share in just one county (Cumberland, where Democratic voters still remained a healthy majority of early voters).

Republicans' slippage in Mecklenburg and Union counties is bad news not only for Dan Bishop, but likewise for Donald Trump. They're the heart of NC09's white, suburban, college-educated, conservative soccer mom territory - the demographic that was Trump's salvation in 2016. Bishop's death-grip embrace of Trump has made this election a referendum on his presidency, and a not-insignificant number of suburban Republicans are sitting this referendum out this year rather than vote for another Trump-enabler.

Looks like bad news for trump and his ilk is on the way. Now we wait and see if Trump and his minions can save this guy. Republicans usually win this seat by 10 points so I think the outcome will be viewed as a negative by the GOP no matter what happens here. 

 

[RayDog 682]

The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there.

NC1    D+17    Democratic
NC2    R+7    Republican
NC3    R+12    Vacant
NC4    D+17    Democratic
NC5    R+10    Republican
NC6    R+9    Republican
NC7    R+9    Republican
NC8    R+8    Republican
NC9    R+8    Vacant
NC10    R+12    Republican
NC11    R+14    Republican
NC12    D+18    Democratic
NC13    R+6    Republican

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Mike Li was saying that a couple of years ago. That's the danger of gerrymandering. They didn't think that they would ever lose the suburban vote. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

36 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there.

NC1    D+17    Democratic
NC2    R+7    Republican
NC3    R+12    Vacant
NC4    D+17    Democratic
NC5    R+10    Republican
NC6    R+9    Republican
NC7    R+9    Republican
NC8    R+8    Republican
NC9    R+8    Vacant
NC10    R+12    Republican
NC11    R+14    Republican
NC12    D+18    Democratic
NC13    R+6    Republican

I still can’t believe how rigged that state is. I’m really hoping the democrats can get someone to the table for the next map. That state should be 8-5 at worst given how close the elections are in NC.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

16 hours ago, RayDog said:

The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there.

NC1    D+17    Democratic
NC2    R+7    Republican
NC3    R+12    Vacant
NC4    D+17    Democratic
NC5    R+10    Republican
NC6    R+9    Republican
NC7    R+9    Republican
NC8    R+8    Republican
NC9    R+8    Vacant
NC10    R+12    Republican
NC11    R+14    Republican
NC12    D+18    Democratic
NC13    R+6    Republican

if the seat was going to flip, shouldn't it have flipped in 2018?  is the gerrymander broken in a way now it wasn't then?

[Js1 85110]

2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

if the seat was going to flip, shouldn't it have flipped in 2018?  is the gerrymander broken in a way now it wasn't then?

The 2018 result was R+0.4 - 905 votes separated the two.  And there was a lot of voting irregularity, including ballots potentially discarded or tampered with. 

R+8 seat, D+8.6 election.  R+0.4 result is not an unusual result.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The 2018 result was R+0.4 - 905 votes separated the two.  And there was a lot of voting irregularity, including ballots potentially discarded or tampered with. 

R+8 seat, D+8.6 election.  R+0.4 result is not an unusual result.  

i get NC07.  I'm just saying this thought that you'll see a ton of flips doesn't scan to me.

[Js1 85110]

2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

i get NC07.  I'm just saying this thought that you'll see a ton of flips doesn't scan to me.

Well by all polling measures, the suburbs are getting way more hostile to Republicans, even in the past year.

[Mapache 1117]

She's got my vote 

 

[atomheartbevo 89448]

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

The replies are amazing 

 

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

3 hours ago, Mapache said:

She's got my vote 

 

More like House erection thread!

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The replies are amazing 

 

Don’t really like that guy to be honest. He’s just about as close to a repub as you can get.

[Js1 85110]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Don’t really like that guy to be honest. He’s just about as close to a repub as you can get.

A Democrat in a SAFE D seat (he won it by 68) that has an A record from the NRA.

GTFO.  Even at the prez level, its D+20. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

A Democrat in a SAFE D seat (he won it by 68) that has an A record from the NRA.

GTFO.  Even at the prez level, its D+20. 

Has he had a primary challenger recently?

 

normally, I frown on Bernie and AOC challenging democrat incumbents and jeopardizing some of our seats, but I’m all for this one.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

The shitty democrats need to be challenged as much as possible. Democracy needs to get its shit together. 

 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Js1 85110]

13 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Has he had a primary challenger recently?

Unopposed in the primary in 08, 12, 14, 18.  He was primaried by a party switcher in 2016 and won 90-10. 

[RayDog 682]

6 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

i get NC07.  I'm just saying this thought that you'll see a ton of flips doesn't scan to me.

Recall that in 2018 Republican enthusiasm was down near 50% and then the Kavanaugh hearings it went up to 65%, essentially the same as for Democrats.

Right now Republican enthusiasm is way down and we could easily see a 5% or more swing from 2018 results in 2020 unless the Republicans manufacturer a way to boost enthusiasm.

There is also a 3% change out in votes every 2 years from olds dying and youngsters taking their place. And this is a presidential year that will increase Democratic turnout.

Edited September 9, 2019 by RayDog

[RayDog 682]

49 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Has he had a primary challenger recently?

 

normally, I frown on Bernie and AOC challenging democrat incumbents and jeopardizing some of our seats, but I’m all for this one.

The Justice Democrats called him out as someone they wanted to primary many months ago. I assume they are trying to find a candidate.

It went over poorly with mainstream Democrats so, while they originally said they would identify other Democrats that need primarying they have been quiet. I published a list of corporate house  Democrats on dailykos and that did not go well even there.

[Voldemort86 2259]

46 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Recall that in 2018 Republican enthusiasm was down near 50% and then the Kavanaugh hearings it went up to 65%, essentially the same as for Democrats.

Right now Republican enthusiasm is way down and we could easily see a 5% or more swing from 2018 results in 2020 unless the Republicans manufacturer a way to boost enthusiasm.

There is also a 3% change out in votes every 2 years from olds dying and youngsters taking their place. And this is a presidential year that will increase Democratic turnout.

It’s the thing I keep going back to.

democrats need to hope and pray that Ginsburg makes it. A Supreme Court vacancy will significantly help republicans across the board and trump as well. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Does anyone have any news or updates from the GOP mouth breathers attempt to “save the race” in NC09? Are trumpkins chanting racist and divisive shit in North Carolina tonight?

Edited September 9, 2019 by Voldemort86

[RayDog 682]

Here is a partial list of mostly corporate Democrats in the house by the amount of corporate PAC money they accepted to their 2018 campaigns (not their PACS) and the percentage of corporate donations (source:opensecrets). That is followed by the ratings and grade from progressivepunch which essentially tells how often they voted Republican. I think progressives should try to primary all of them.

Name	District	Corp. PAC	PAC %	Rating	Grade
Richard Neal	MA-1	$2,501,791	76.33%	2.60	C
Steny Hoyer	MD-5	$2,163,715	60.92%	-5.48	F
Ron Kind	WI-3	$1,683,793	78.05%	-4.77	F
Frank Pallone	NJ-6	$1,637,066	67.22%	3.99	B
James Clyburn	SC-6	$1,428,608	86.34%	-1.08	D
Terri Sewel	AL-7	$1,324,628	81.63%	-16.96	F
Kurt Schrader	OR-5	$1,322,953	70.99%	-19.70	F
Scott Peters	CA-52	$1,274,573	56.20%	-31.84	F
Mike Thompson	CA-5	$1,150,309	61.43%	-0.95	D
Ben R Lujan	NM-3	$1,120,126	68.67%	-2.66	D
Linda Sanchez	CA-38	$1,100,788	77.99%	11.76	A
Josh Gottheimer	NJ-5	$1,094,326	24.28%	-35.34	F
Cheri Bustos	IL-17	$1,072,622	41.77%	-24.70	F
Derek Kilmer	WA-6	$1,045,221	51.78%	-14.06	F
Henry Cuellar	TX-28	$1,030,377	66.63%	-44.44	F
Suzan DelBene	WA-1	$1,004,698	53.22%	-10.72	F
John Larson	CT-1	$987,993	70.94%	2.48	C
Collin Peterson	MN-7	$961,513	79.59%	-30.80	F
Jim Himes	CT-4	$937,673	48.28%	-12.69	F
Ami Bera	CA-7	$933,047	40.79%	-27.39	F
David Scott	GA-13	$921,249	94.12%	-15.45	F
Ed Perlmutter	CO-7	$893,069	63.84%	-15.66	F
Cedric Richmond	LA-2	$892,392	77.90%	-5.14	F
Jim Costa	CA-16	$892,340	58.10%	-40.27	F
Stephanie Murphy	FL-7	$866,738	46.95%	-32.67	F
Nancy Pelosi	CA-12	$866,700	26.58%	10.31	A
Raul Ruiz	CA-36	$808,925	39.07%	-30.67	F

[cactusflinthead 27594]

50 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Does anyone have any news or updates from the GOP mouth breathers attempt to “save the race” in NC09? Are trumpkins chanting racist and divisive shit in North Carolina tonight?

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

33 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Can’t say I feel bad for him...... or Air Force one.

[Js1 85110]

47 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Here is a partial list of mostly corporate Democrats in the house by the amount of corporate PAC money they accepted to their 2018 campaigns (not their PACS) and the percentage of corporate donations (source:opensecrets). That is followed by the ratings and grade from progressivepunch which essentially tells how often they voted Republican. I think progressives should try to primary all of them.

Name	District	Corp. PAC	PAC %	Rating	Grade
Richard Neal	MA-1	$2,501,791	76.33%	2.60	C
Steny Hoyer	MD-5	$2,163,715	60.92%	-5.48	F
Ron Kind	WI-3	$1,683,793	78.05%	-4.77	F
Frank Pallone	NJ-6	$1,637,066	67.22%	3.99	B
James Clyburn	SC-6	$1,428,608	86.34%	-1.08	D
Terri Sewel	AL-7	$1,324,628	81.63%	-16.96	F
Kurt Schrader	OR-5	$1,322,953	70.99%	-19.70	F
Scott Peters	CA-52	$1,274,573	56.20%	-31.84	F
Mike Thompson	CA-5	$1,150,309	61.43%	-0.95	D
Ben R Lujan	NM-3	$1,120,126	68.67%	-2.66	D
Linda Sanchez	CA-38	$1,100,788	77.99%	11.76	A
Josh Gottheimer	NJ-5	$1,094,326	24.28%	-35.34	F
Cheri Bustos	IL-17	$1,072,622	41.77%	-24.70	F
Derek Kilmer	WA-6	$1,045,221	51.78%	-14.06	F
Henry Cuellar	TX-28	$1,030,377	66.63%	-44.44	F
Suzan DelBene	WA-1	$1,004,698	53.22%	-10.72	F
John Larson	CT-1	$987,993	70.94%	2.48	C
Collin Peterson	MN-7	$961,513	79.59%	-30.80	F
Jim Himes	CT-4	$937,673	48.28%	-12.69	F
Ami Bera	CA-7	$933,047	40.79%	-27.39	F
David Scott	GA-13	$921,249	94.12%	-15.45	F
Ed Perlmutter	CO-7	$893,069	63.84%	-15.66	F
Cedric Richmond	LA-2	$892,392	77.90%	-5.14	F
Jim Costa	CA-16	$892,340	58.10%	-40.27	F
Stephanie Murphy	FL-7	$866,738	46.95%	-32.67	F
Nancy Pelosi	CA-12	$866,700	26.58%	10.31	A
Raul Ruiz	CA-36	$808,925	39.07%	-30.67	F

Lujan is probably going to be the next senator from NM

peterson is the most endangered democrat. Occupying an R+12 seat in Minnesota 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://mobile.twitter.com/McCreadyForNC/status/1171155856785924097

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/McCreadyForNC/status/1171155856785924097

 This is all just to make sure nothing goes haywire at the 11th hour, correct? It seemed to me very clearly that he was going to win. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 This is all just to make sure nothing goes haywire at the 11th hour, correct? It seemed to me very clearly that he was going to win. 

I'm gonna play it like there's a chance we could lose until we win. I'm not out there on the ledge with Brisket, but I can see it from here.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 This is all just to make sure nothing goes haywire at the 11th hour, correct? It seemed to me very clearly that he was going to win. 

Gotta fight until the very last second. Republicans always seem to win Election Day voting, we have to hope that McCready has built a sizable lead.

[Bojack 2073]

I can't believe this NC9 hasn't been a bigger story.  If democrats had pulled off some of the most blatant voter fraud in memory,  FoxNews and the rest of the right wing propaganda machine would've made household names of everyone involved.  Special election is happening today and it's barely a story anywhere.  

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

1 hour ago, Bojack said:

I can't believe this NC9 hasn't been a bigger story.  If democrats had pulled off some of the most blatant voter fraud in memory,  FoxNews and the rest of the right wing propaganda machine would've made household names of everyone involved.  Special election is happening today and it's barely a story anywhere.  

 

The seat should just be given to McCready, considering why we are having this special election. What a joke. 

[GopherRock 1765]

13 hours ago, Js1 said:

Lujan is probably going to be the next senator from NM

peterson is the most endangered democrat. Occupying an R+12 seat in Minnesota 

 

So long as he keeps doing the work of Big Sugar, and chairing the House Ag Committee, he's not going down. 

Here's a long profile from Minnpost last month about his complicated relationship with the sugar beet industry and other sectors of Big Sugar. 

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2019/08/sweet-deal-sugar-industry-organizes-new-super-pac-to-re-elect-collin-peterson/

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

So long as he keeps doing the work of Big Sugar, and chairing the House Ag Committee, he's not going down. 

Here's a long profile from Minnpost last month about his complicated relationship with the sugar beet industry and other sectors of Big Sugar. 

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2019/08/sweet-deal-sugar-industry-organizes-new-super-pac-to-re-elect-collin-peterson/

This.  Peterson has survived the tea party waves in 2010 and 2014, plus Trump in 2016.  That seat is his as long as he wants it (and Minnesota doesn't lose a CD and he gets redistricted out of a job).

[406W30th 1111]

Not sure if this has gotten much pub outside of Wisconsin, but Scott Walker has been hitting the airwaves to promote the batshit crazy idea of his 25-year old son running for Sensenbrenner's seat. Like his father before him, Matt Walker has never had a real job, unless interning for Paul Ryan counts. It's a Republican stronghold so he'd probably win if he runs but merciful Christ...

 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

15 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

Not sure if this has gotten much pub outside of Wisconsin, but Scott Walker has been hitting the airwaves to promote the batshit crazy idea of his 25-year old son running for Sensenbrenner's seat. Like his father before him, Matt Walker has never had a real job, unless interning for Paul Ryan counts. It's a Republican stronghold so he'd probably win if he runs but merciful Christ...

 

 

Scott Walker is a loser. I really hate that guy.  He is a huge huge advocate of partisan gerrymandering and Wisconsin GOP are some of the nastiest people you will ever find anywhere. They win elections with 45% of the vote ( or less) because of the heavily gerrymandered map and have a massive chip their shoulder while doing it.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Bojack said:

I can't believe this NC9 hasn't been a bigger story.  If democrats had pulled off some of the most blatant voter fraud in memory,  FoxNews and the rest of the right wing propaganda machine would've made household names of everyone involved.  Special election is happening today and it's barely a story anywhere.  

It will become a big story if McCready were to win. More congressional GOP would view it as a very bad sign for next year and retire. GOP fund raising would probably take a hit as well. They need this race 100x more then democrats do. That’s why it would be so freaking sweet if McCready wins.