2020 House election thread

[Bateshorn 9989]

Individual for the Dems, it’s an L.  For the GOP, it took the full weight of the party to win a plus 9 district.  This is a bit like beating  North Texas by 7 in your home opener.  I mean,  you won, but that’s not exactly going to a comfortable film room tomorrow. 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Welp. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And again, did any of our top 2020ers show up for McCready? 

Another 6-8 point overperformance. But when the GOP/Trump can narrow in on one race instead of 435, they pull it off. 

I blame Pelosi, the actual leader of the party right now.  She has done jack shit to get democrats excited and done nothing but hold her power in the fetal position on the floor while Trump and the Republicans shit all over her. 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

And again, did any of our top 2020ers show up for McCready? 
Another 6-8 point overperformance. But when the GOP/Trump can narrow in on one race instead of 435, they pull it off. 

Beto did.

[Message Board User 12405]

4 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I'm going to guess, no? Democrats better get on the same page-the GOP is pretty good about eating their own, so instead maybe the Democrats ought to consider the 'team before me' concept and form a flying V.

Just spitballing, but maybe McCready figured that the presence of Bernie or Warren or Biden in a GOP + 9 district would hurt rather than help.

[Ghost of LL 15674]

Individual for the Dems, it’s an L.  For the GOP, it took the full weight of the party to win a plus 9 district.  This is a bit like beating  North Texas by 7 in your home opener.  I mean,  you won, but that’s not exactly going to a comfortable film room tomorrow. 

Trump took this district by 12. That the GOP can’t muster a big win is a real problem.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Js1 87007]

3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Just spitballing, but maybe McCready figured that the presence of Bernie or Warren or Biden in a GOP + 9 district would hurt rather than help.

If Joe fucking Biden is a liability in a GOP + 9 district, we are fucked in 2020

[Message Board User 12405]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

If Joe fucking Biden is a liability in a GOP + 9 district, we are fucked in 2020

In the case of Biden, even if he did know there was an election (not a sure thing), he probably went to the wrong state and campaigned for George McGovern.

[Firemans4Horn 18501]

13 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

The 🦀 district!

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

This moral victory shit kills me.  

Dems:  “Wouldn’t want to alienate moderate Dems and independents with Warren or Bernie in a red district.”

GOP:  “let’s roll in Trump the white supremacist traitor that just wanted to have a secret meeting with the Taliban at Camp David to get out the vote!” 

GOP wins

Edited September 11, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[berlinerbaer 692]

Yeah. Maybe my standards are high. I want to win.

I'll feel better in the morning but right now I am disappoint.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

If the local D candidate doesn't want the national names there, then it's probably not going to happen. Bishop certainly wanted Trump. But, the McCready camp might not want them in there.

They spent 6 million plus defending a seat that hasn't been competitive in years. 

Edit: of course it's a damn shame. But, it's a long road ahead. This isn't a blowout. 

Edited September 11, 2019 by cactusflinthead

[Js1 87007]

20 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

Beto did.

 

Props to Beto. You want to lead this party next year? Show out this year. Show me you mean it. 

Kentucky governor race and Virginia state elections in November. Wanna see some 2020ers sticking their necks out. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26774]

Welp. 

It’s a special election. It’s interesting but not much else.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[UpperWestside 6263]

41 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

Beto did.

 

He is still my favorite for the Democrats. He probably won't get the nomination, but that's okay. I'll vote for whomever the nominee is solely because I will never cast a single vote for a Republican ever again, but Christ the Dems national party seems to kinda suck at helping with races like this one. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

This really isn’t a big deal guys.

the seat has been in republican hands since 1963. I think the GOP big whigs will be very disappointed when they do an in depth analysis of the voter data. Suburbs all across the country are rapidly turning on the GOP. Mcready won Mecklenburg. A democrat never wins there. 

 

Theres still a lot to like here if you’re a democrat. It sucks that the GOP won tho because we might’ve seen a lot more gop retirements as a result. We might still see some. The political environment right now looks pretty bad for the GOP. They always win this seat by over 10 points. It shouldn’t be close.

Edited September 11, 2019 by Voldemort86

[Js1 87007]

This won’t affect the retirements. Handel barely winning GA-6 in 2017 meant nothing when it came to massive GOP retirements. It’s winning a battle (a seat you already had) but losing the war (suburbs are GONE). 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

This won’t affect the retirements. Handel barely winning GA-6 in 2017 meant nothing when it came to massive GOP retirements. It’s winning a battle (a seat you already had) but losing the war (suburbs are GONE). 

Now we’re starting to see why Marchant and Olson bolted so fast. 

I had already pretty much assumed Hurd was toast with presidential election turnout and trump on the ballot. Dems will definitely be taking TX-23.

[Js1 87007]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

He was closer to a win when they were actively stuffing the ballot box.  How is this a positive?  doesnt this represents a backslide from 2018? 

[Js1 87007]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

He was closer to a win when they were actively stuffing the ballot box.  How is this a positive?  doesnt this represents a backslide from 2018? 

Not really a trend you can make like that when it’s a one off special in September versus an actual midterm election in November. It’s still a massive 7 point underperformance  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not really a trend you can make like that when it’s a one off special in September versus an actual midterm election in November. It’s still a massive 7 point underperformance  

Well, my thoughts may be simplistic, but none of those “why this is bad news for the GOP” tweets can be right.  Either this is a meaningless special election that we can extrapolate nothing from, or it indicates basically a hold serve —to slight backslide for Ds since 2018.  If the GOP guys with smaller PVIs won then, there is no reason from this to think they wouldn’t win again. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Well, my thoughts may be simplistic, but none of those “why this is bad news for the GOP” tweets can be right.  Either this is a meaningless special election that we can extrapolate nothing from, or it indicates basically a hold serve —to slight backslide for Ds since 2018.  If the GOP guys with smaller PVIs won then, there is no reason from this to think they wouldn’t win again. 

This is a heavily gerrymandered seat that the democrats never win. Repubs usually win here by 10+

 

theres still plenty of good signs to take from this if youre a democrat. Trump and repubs are extremely toxic in the suburbs.

[David Dennison 19442]

45 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

He was closer to a win when they were actively stuffing the ballot box.  How is this a positive?  doesnt this represents a backslide from 2018? 

No. 

This is problematic for Republicans in a big way.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Props to Beto. You want to lead this party next year? Show out this year. Show me you mean it. 
Kentucky governor race and Virginia state elections in November. Wanna see some 2020ers sticking their necks out. 

Here’s a graphic from Party Builder that shows the number of down ballot democratic candidates each presidential candidate has supported and how they award points.

[RayDog 682]

That is one reason why Beto would be a great VP.

The turnout in NC9 was almost 90,000 less than 2018. I think it is another case of Democrats shitting the bed in a special election. That district could still flip in 2020.

[Pancho 46088]

Not sure if serious..,

 

[RayDog 682]

He had a 2 point margin and at least 1.5% of his advantage will die in the next 14 months. Good luck.

[Bozo_Casanova 26774]

Stop trying to make Beto happen. It’s not going to happen.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13712]

NC 9 is a win and loss for both parties. The Dems may have lost some ground in NC since Nov 2018 but the GOP is still down since 2016. I wouldn’t expect Dems to pick up too many more house seats in 2020 than they did in 2018 as the remaining GOP seats are fairly red.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP has a gain in 2020 even with trump on the ballot.

but I don’t see the democrats losing the house at least based on current numbers. However anything could change.

[Bojack 2087]

The lack of Dem enthusiasm and turnout for this race is what bothers me.  You'd think voters in NC9 would be motivated since the 2018 election was stolen through blatant election fraud.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

NC 9 is a win and loss for both parties. The Dems may have lost some ground in NC since Nov 2018 but the GOP is still down since 2016. I wouldn’t expect Dems to pick up too many more house seats in 2020 than they did in 2018 as the remaining GOP seats are fairly red.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP has a gain in 2020 even with trump on the ballot.

but I don’t see the democrats losing the house at least based on current numbers. However anything could change.

The long term outlook seems to be pretty healthy for democrats in the house. The mindset now needs to be just holding onto that majority until redistricting and new maps in 2022. 

i should remind everyone here that the tea party backlash to Obama occurred in the 2010 election. The GOP got all they wanted in redistricting. I can’t imagine their luck will be any better than that for the foreseeable future. House democrats used to struggle coming up with money to compete, but actblue has helped democrats offset the money advantages bestowed on the house GOP in the past from losers like Sheldon adelson. That guy probably single handedly killed us in the Obama era midterms.

the house is very important to the Dems because the GOP seems to have some built in structural advantages in the senate and electoral college for the presidency. We can’t let the GOP manufacture an advantage in the house like they tried to do with that bullshit census question. The GOP knows they had pocket aces in the 2010 decade because of the political map and they hopefully won’t have it that way ever again.

Edited September 11, 2019 by Voldemort86

[horncyclist 1391]

This reminds me a lot of the Ossaf race in Georgia, though he of course had more resources and more enthusiasm. It's similar in that Republicans knew losing it would signal to everyone that the wheels are falling off so they pulled out all the stops to eek out a victory. Also kind of reminds me of the desperation to save Ted Cruz in Texas.

The GOP/Trump are desperately trying to plug holes in an increasingly leaky dam holding back a blue deluge. Eventually, it's going to break. Probably in 2020.

On another note I'm still shocked at the number of people who will still gladly vote republican. Who knew this country had so many people who hate America.

 

 

[Js1 87007]

17 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

This reminds me a lot of the Ossaf race in Georgia, though he of course had more resources and more enthusiasm. It's similar in that Republicans knew losing it would signal to everyone that the wheels are falling off so they pulled out all the stops to eek out a victory. 

 

Ding ding ding.

With their backs against the wall, they can funnel all of their resources - Trump, Pence, dark money, NRCC, RNC, etc. into the race and laser focus on one race.  It's way easier to do with special elections.  But when its 435 House faces, 33 Senate races, governorships, state leg races all on one day, they can't do it. 

Did Trump's rally make the difference? Maybe.  

[Ghost of LL 15674]

11 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Well, my thoughts may be simplistic, but none of those “why this is bad news for the GOP” tweets can be right.  Either this is a meaningless special election that we can extrapolate nothing from, or it indicates basically a hold serve —to slight backslide for Ds since 2018.  If the GOP guys with smaller PVIs won then, there is no reason from this to think they wouldn’t win again. 

I think it is a very small backslide, but it's hard to tell with the difference in turnout between a midterm election and a September special election (particularly in a district in which much of the Democratic turnout is dependent on rural African-Americans).

But a small backslide would be consistent with where the generic-ballot polling is right now.  The Democrats ended up winning the midterms by 9 points.  The generic ballot today has them up by 7 points.  

But a 7-point win for Democrats nationally would be another massive blue wave.  It means they retain the House (and may even increase their majority owing to Republican retirements and the attendant loss of the incumbency advantage).  It means they gain a bunch more state legislative seats, which is critical with redistricting coming up.

It also means they likely take the Senate.  And, most importantly, it means Trump's goose is well and truly cooked, Electoral College be damned.

If you're a Republican, I think you'd be working awfully hard to find any solace in the difference between the GOP performance in NC09 between the two elections.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13712]

 

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

The long term outlook seems to be pretty healthy for democrats in the house. The mindset now needs to be just holding onto that majority until redistricting and new maps in 2022. 

i should remind everyone here that the tea party backlash to Obama occurred in the 2010 election. The GOP got all they wanted in redistricting. I can’t imagine their luck will be any better than that for the foreseeable future. House democrats used to struggle coming up with money to compete, but actblue has helped democrats offset the money advantages bestowed on the house GOP in the past from losers like Sheldon adelson. That guy probably single handedly killed us in the Obama era midterms.

the house is very important to the Dems because the GOP seems to have some built in structural advantages in the senate and electoral college for the presidency. We can’t let the GOP manufacture an advantage in the house like they tried to do with that bullshit census question. The GOP knows they had pocket aces in the 2010 decade because of the political map and they hopefully won’t have it that way ever again.

North Carolina is going to be a problem for the House GOP next decade.  Right now, the GOP has 10 of the 13 House seats even though statewide they can't get 50% of the Presidential vote.  NC had a big shift to the Left with Obama in 2008 but its slowly turning more red again at least through 2016.

Still with the latest changes, the Dems should be able to win more of the NC state legislature, which in turn should allow them a better chance of 6-7 House seats.

[Ghost of LL 15674]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

North Carolina is going to be a problem for the House GOP next decade.  Right now, the GOP has 10 of the 13 House seats even though statewide they can't get 50% of the Presidential vote.  NC had a big shift to the Left with Obama in 2008 but its slowly turning more red again at least through 2016.

Still with the latest changes, the Dems should be able to win more of the NC state legislature, which in turn should allow them a better chance of 6-7 House seats.

Don't forget that the North Carolina Supreme Court declared the gerrymander unconstitutional.  I don't know if they're going to have to redraw before 2020, though.

[Js1 87007]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Don't forget that the North Carolina Supreme Court declared the gerrymander unconstitutional.  I don't know if they're going to have to redraw before 2020, though.

They have to re-draw the state house districts, I believe.  Which should make it more likely the Democrats make gains there which will help the 2022 Congressional map drawing. 

[RayDog 682]

5 hours ago, Bojack said:

The lack of Dem enthusiasm and turnout for this race is what bothers me.  You'd think voters in NC9 would be motivated since the 2018 election was stolen through blatant election fraud.  

The loss came down to one minority majority county that Democrats won by 5000 in 2018 and barely broke even this time.

[Bateshorn 9989]

48 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The loss came down to one minority majority county that Democrats won by 5000 in 2018 and barely broke even this time.

Yeah,  I wouldn't over think it.  They didn't quite get the turn out they needed in a off year special election.  They blew the doors off in Mecklenberg, that's a good sign statewide.  IT's sorta like VA:  The dems are starting to reliably win Henrico County outside of Richmond.  That makes the state all but unobtainable when you factor in No. VA.  If RDU continues to trend the way it has, I'm not sure there's enough rural votes statewide to over come the suburbs turning blue.

Edited September 11, 2019 by Bateshorn

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

North Carolina is going to be a problem for the House GOP next decade.  Right now, the GOP has 10 of the 13 House seats even though statewide they can't get 50% of the Presidential vote.  NC had a big shift to the Left with Obama in 2008 but its slowly turning more red again at least through 2016.

Still with the latest changes, the Dems should be able to win more of the NC state legislature, which in turn should allow them a better chance of 6-7 House seats.

The North Carolina GOP has suffered a massive credibility hit. They are the first state who comes to peoples minds when they think of “ extreme gerrymandering”. I have to assume that their 2020 map will be highly scrutinized. I’m addition, the NC map guru Thomas Hofeller is dead. 

Im thinking the democrats lot will improve here no matter what. I’d even be ok with a map that is 8-5 republican, but 10-3 is highway robbery given how Competitive that state is.

we should all be grateful that Thomas Hofeller is gone because I bet trump and the Texas GOP (who is scared shitless of the democrats gains) would’ve used him to draw rigged maps all over the country. That guy was evil.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The North Carolina GOP has suffered a massive credibility hit. They are the first state who comes to peoples minds when they think of “ extreme gerrymandering”. I have to assume that their 2020 map will be highly scrutinized. I’m addition, the NC map guru Thomas Hofeller is dead. 

Im thinking the democrats lot will improve here no matter what. I’d even be ok with a map that is 8-5 republican, but 10-3 is highway robbery given how Competitive that state is.

we should all be grateful that Thomas Hofeller is gone because I bet trump and the Texas GOP (who is scared shitless of the democrats gains) would’ve used him to draw rigged maps all over the country. That guy was evil.

Although I agree with you, the first time I saw the map of Texas, I didn't exactly think it was 'mild.'

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/13/republicans-clash-win-red-trump-1494754

house republicans are having a difficult time getting on the same page and are struggling to keep up with the democrats donor machine Actblue.

Another problem is probably demographics and where some of these repubs live. Does anyone really think tons of blue haired old men in their 70’s or 80’s will know how to log into a computer and donate to these candidates? Does anyone think the poor people in Alabama, West Virginia, and Idaho will be logging in to donate? 

I think a lot of the republicans voter base either won’t know how or can’t log in to donate to these candidates. We’re also overlooking the fact that the Republican Party at its core encourages people to be as selfish and individualistic as possible. I doubt tons of them will be lining up to donate either. Republicans policies are literally “ tax cuts for the rich and I have mine.......screw you”.

[Js1 87007]

20th incumbent sitting out for 2020 (16 Democrats, 4 Republicans)
3 Democratic retirements, 1 running for Senate
12 Republican retirements, 2 running for Senate, 1 running for Governor, 1 running for County Supervisor seat (lol) 

Paul Cook - CA-8 - R+9 district - 54% Trump district, all inner California with the Mojave desert along the NV border down to Lake Havasu City. 

 

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

That's the second one in Cali to leave for a county supervisor seat.

[Gil Bang 26182]

[Gil Bang 26182]

Fuck