The Trump Economy: 3.2% GDP 1st Qtr 2019

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

1 minute ago, Zavala said:

Agreed. Rescuing the number crunchers is rewarding them for failure.

The Dow fell about 900 points in a few minutes after TARP was originally voted down.  There was no other choice but to pass it unless you wanted to see the entire global economy come to a screeching halt.

[sidis 9713]

18 minutes ago, Axiom of Choice said:

Question for you, amico:  

There are numoerous quantifiable economic indicators that get used in isolation to highlight some point, typically how well or poorly some politician or political policy is doing. The relevance on that indicator will then be challenged by the opposition and they will bring up some other isolated indicator.  What would have some use for these comparative purposes is an indicator that is a calculation from the top 15 or so generally agreed upon meaningful indicators.  Basically, a “QB rating” for the economy.  That way, if one were to spend massively and skyrocket the debt, this would negatively impact this overall indicator and so if one were to point to an increase in GDP in isolation, one could reply with this overall indicator that takes these things into consideration.  

Does such an economic indicator exist?  If so, what are they?  If none come to mind, any chance you could make one? 

it is a great question and one that macro-economists have been struggling with for some time.  in my opinion, the problem with the formulating the "best" single indicator of economic health for any particular system goes back to the very nature of economics itself...the allocation of scarce resources.  particularly in a capitalist context in which market competition is the primary engine and regardless of whether or not one believes it is the best engine for the population from a moralistic perspective, it is undeniably one that has casualties at all times.  thus, this creates the ability for one to always point to some indicator that informs the negative side of what is happening. thus, for any observer, it is incumbent upon them to evaluate the suite of data indicators an place value on what they believe is most important. 

have formulas been created with the types of various variable weighting that you are describing?  of course...by a lot of experienced and brilliant economists throughout history.  are any of them impenetrable to criticism and revision?  of course not.  how you weight things is going to be informed by your subjective perspective on what data and which indicators are most important.  gini coefficient, m2 money supply, money velocity, housing starts, wage growth, % of poverty, crime statistics, ppi, cpi, interest rates, gnp per capita, debt to gdp, deficit to gdp, srad, lrad, sras, p to e ratios in equities, currency strength, corporate after-tax profits, trade balance, inventories, lpr, whether or not the horns beat ou...

all have value if recorded properly and utilized properly.  and they are all inter-related but there are so many other exogenous variables that may get them out of whack (war, climate)...that trying to account for them all in a static formula is potentially dangerous based on the designer.

Edited May 3, 2019 by sidis

[Lagunamadre 1975]

24 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The tax bill was a giveaway to corporations.

But didn't they just give all of that extra money to their employees? 

[gsoda3 3234]

26 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The Dow fell about 900 points in a few minutes after TARP was originally voted down.  There was no other choice but to pass it unless you wanted to see the entire global economy come to a screeching halt.

it was a drastic drop, i don't remember exactly how much but i was on the desk and it was more a computer-driven reaction than anything else.  

 

that said, my thinking then, as it still is now, is there is/was a lot of bad debt that needed to be cleared out.  if that meant pain then so be it.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Inflation is low. Wages are increasing. Markets are up. Unemployment rate is fantastic. 

Credit whichever team you want, but we should be celebrating this.

[David Dennison 18608]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Inflation is low. Wages are increasing. Markets are up. Unemployment rate is fantastic. 

Credit whichever team you want, but we should be celebrating this.

It won't last.

Ahhhh, capitalism.

[sidis 9713]

2 minutes ago, Axiom of Choice said:

As I’m typing, I’m realizing that what I am after almost certainly does occur in discussions and publications by the experts, but what the general public gets is watered down useless tripe, the purpose of which is not to inform but to persuade.   

precisely.  they aid in making idiotic memes like the one posted above.  start here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-macroeconomics

moreover, again...the problem is with the very nature of economics itself.  it is the meanest bitch of all social disciplines in my opinion because, regardless of what one is evaluating (whether it's micro models for isolated community behavior or macro models for currency trading), the minute you think you have a model that fits the data for the past (or at least some segment of it), the exogenous variable that is human behavior (aka animal spirits, etc...) kicks in going forward and you're simply left there with a giant wtf look on your face.

however, to my point that i alluded to in the post you quoted above, the business cycle is one of the most reliable variables in evaluating the economy.  the problem is that when people think of cycles, they think in terms of sine waves and in our modern economy, it is more like a reverse sawtooth. and the drop is always there lurking when times appear at their best (2004/2005, now).  we used to have a decent plan for dealing with that by reserving the ability to stimulate through monetary and fiscal policy.  we are currently eating all the seeds and gloating about how full we are.

[Zavala 1384]

56 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The tax bill was a giveaway to corporations.

The tax bill was relief to American corporations at the cost of foreign corporations profiting in America. 

The incentive to keep companies here and move companies that have gone foreign here. I love it. Stop paying slave wages to 3rd world countries to produce goods for Americans, and start creating goods here.

Seems to have worked, at least in Texas, there is more cranes in every city than I've seen in a while. Good stuff.

[bernorange 8346]

Just now, sidis said:

... the minute you think you have a model that fits the data for the past (or at least some segment of it), the exogenous variable that is human behavior (aka animal spirits, etc...) kicks in going forward and you're simply left there with a giant wtf look on your face. ...

Love the visual.  Exogenous variable, Chaos Theory, or as I've put it numerous times, trying to play shoot the moon with infinite rails - our fiat monetary system is insane.  We'll manage until we can't.  Enjoy the ride.

[David Dennison 18608]

1 minute ago, Zavala said:

The tax bill was relief to American corporations at the cost of foreign corporations profiting in America. 

The incentive to keep companies here and move companies that have gone foreign here. I love it. Stop paying slave wages to 3rd world countries to produce goods for Americans, and start creating goods here.

Seems to have worked, at least in Texas, there is more cranes in every city than I've seen in a while. Good stuff.

LOL

[Zavala 1384]

6 minutes ago, sidis said:

precisely.  they aid in making idiotic memes like the one posted above.  start here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-macroeconomics

moreover, again...the problem is with the very nature of economics itself.  it is the meanest bitch of all social disciplines in my opinion because, regardless of what one is evaluating (whether it's micro models for isolated community behavior or macro models for currency trading), the minute you think you have a model that fits the data for the past (or at least some segment of it), the exogenous variable that is human behavior (aka animal spirits, etc...) kicks in going forward and you're simply left there with a giant wtf look on your face.

however, to my point that i alluded to in the post you quoted above, the business cycle is one of the most reliable variables in evaluating the economy.  the problem is that when people think of cycles, they think in terms of sine waves and in our modern economy, it is more like a reverse sawtooth. and the drop is always there lurking when times appear at their best (2004/2005, now).  we used to have a decent plan for dealing with that by reserving the ability to stimulate through monetary and fiscal policy.  we are currently eating all the seeds and gloating about how full we are.

I would hope that the natural order is let to go free, and government stays the fuck out of it. As soon as government gets involved the companies figure a way to leverage artificial mechanical created by the government to their favor. 

Competition is great, but competition with the regulators and government officials involved is shit. 

Also, the financial sector is inflated beyond belief with how cheap money is to borrow, and they produce jack shit.

[Zavala 1384]

56 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The Dow fell about 900 points in a few minutes after TARP was originally voted down.  There was no other choice but to pass it unless you wanted to see the entire global economy come to a screeching halt.

According to who? The banksters? 

So when this piss-poor balloon is stretched too thin, and starting to leak, you just slap expensive duct tape over the hole and keep pumping away?

[David Dennison 18608]

Just now, Zavala said:

According to who? The banksters? 

So when this piss-poor balloon is stretched too thin, and starting to leak, you just slap expensive duct tape over the hole and keep pumping away?

That's called capitalism.

[Zavala 1384]

11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It won't last.

Ahhhh, capitalism.

Capitalism, the system that has dragged the human race out of poverty.

Whats you better solution - Democratic Socialism? A system that has only been tried on successful existing economies, and caused them to crash. Led by a man who has never held a real job?

[Zavala 1384]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

That's called capitalism.

No, thats crony capitalism AKA corruption. Capitalism is not government bail-outs. 

Simple shit.

Quote

Socialism is where the government regulates and controls business. Capitalism is when the marketplace regulates and controls a business. Under capitalism, if a business becomes unprofitable because its products or services have no demand, it's run poorly, or someone else does it better, that business dies. When the government gives a failing business tax money taken from the people to prop up that failing business, the bailout subverts capitalism. The government is essentially regulating and controlling that business by giving it the means, at the expense of the people, to continue operating.

 

[David Dennison 18608]

2 minutes ago, Zavala said:

No, thats crony capitalism AKA corruption. Capitalism is not government bail-outs. 

Simple shit.

Oh, so you want utopian capitalism, not real capitalism involving human beings.

I understand why you're frustrated now. 

[David Dennison 18608]

4 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Capitalism, the system that has dragged the human race out of poverty.

Has it?

[sidis 9713]

1 minute ago, Zavala said:

No, thats crony capitalism AKA corruption. Capitalism is not government bail-outs. 

Simple shit. 

 

you trying to square this with your cult of personality-like devotion to trump policies when he engages in outright protectionism and directly subsidizes entire industries that lose out as a result is almost as dizzying as your declaration that unrestrained capitalism is the greatest economic system in the history of the world and "look at all the cranes!" while claiming that the allocators of that capital "produce jack shit."

which all pale in comparison to your meme about democratic socialists and nazis.

congrats.  you're killing it on this page.

[Zavala 1384]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Oh, so you want utopian capitalism, not real capitalism involving human beings.

I understand why you're frustrated now. 

You are blaming capitalism for government involvement into the economy. By definition you are incorrect. 

Of course the system involves human beings. Human beings who may fuck up, or may be corrupt. Human beings fuck up, their business should suffer the consequences. Instead, when they fuck up, they use corrupt political system to bail out their business. None of that is capitalism. That is government involvement in business, that is socialism.

[David Dennison 18608]

Just now, Zavala said:

You are blaming capitalism for government involvement into the economy. By definition you are incorrect. 

Of course the system involves human beings. Human beings who may fuck up, or may be corrupt. Human beings fuck up, their business should suffer the consequences. Instead, when they fuck up, they use corrupt political system to bail out their business. None of that is capitalism. That is government involvement in business, that is socialism.

Where does capitalism exist without the state?

[Zavala 1384]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Has it?

Yes. Capitalism creates a natural and free arena for competition. Competition creates innovation and efficiency.

1. The number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide declined by 80 percent from 1970 to 2006. People living on a dollar a day or less dramatically fell from 26.8 percent of the global population in 1970 to 5.4 percent in 2006 – an 80 percent decline. It is a truly remarkable achievement that doesn't receive a lot of media coverage because it highlights the success of capitalism.

"It was globalization, free trade, the boom in international entrepreneurship," American Enterprise Institute (AEI) president Arthur Brooks said in a 2012 speech. "In short, it was the free enterprise system, American style, which is our gift to the world."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/14525/5-statistics-showing-how-capitalism-solves-poverty-aaron-bandler

 

[Zavala 1384]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Where does capitalism exist without the state?

Everywhere. The state has the responsibility to protect the rights of all to participate in the economy. Upholding contracts, protecting rights, and allowing the free use of property. It's never been laissez-faire, it's always played a role in regulating the economy - just a limited role.

The state inspects goods, creates licensing systems for certain professions, all essential for public health and safety. These protect consumers from fraud and strengthen the free market economy, by making sure goods and services are reliable. 

[Foosters 17691]

you're like 23, right?

[David Dennison 18608]

2 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Yes. Capitalism creates a natural and free arena for competition. Competition creates innovation and efficiency.

1. The number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide declined by 80 percent from 1970 to 2006. People living on a dollar a day or less dramatically fell from 26.8 percent of the global population in 1970 to 5.4 percent in 2006 – an 80 percent decline. It is a truly remarkable achievement that doesn't receive a lot of media coverage because it highlights the success of capitalism.

"It was globalization, free trade, the boom in international entrepreneurship," American Enterprise Institute (AEI) president Arthur Brooks said in a 2012 speech. "In short, it was the free enterprise system, American style, which is our gift to the world."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/14525/5-statistics-showing-how-capitalism-solves-poverty-aaron-bandler

 

If capitalism and globalization are doing so well, explain Donald Trump and Brexit.

Also, who protects that natural and free arena for competition? Who protects capital?

[Zavala 1384]

7 minutes ago, sidis said:

you trying to square this with your cult of personality-like devotion to trump policies when he engages in outright protectionism and directly subsidizes entire industries that lose out as a result is almost as dizzying as your declaration that unrestrained capitalism is the greatest economic system in the history of the world and "look at all the cranes!" while claiming that the allocators of that capital "produce jack shit."

which all pale in comparison to your meme about democratic socialists and nazis.

congrats.  you're killing it on this page.

Please put me on ignore, I'll do the same for you.

Thanks.

[David Dennison 18608]

Just now, Zavala said:

Everywhere. The state has the responsibility to protect the rights of all to participate in the economy. Upholding contracts, protecting rights, and allowing the free use of property. It's never been laissez-faire, it's always played a role in regulating the economy - just a limited role.

The state inspects goods, creates licensing systems for certain professions, all essential for public health and safety. These protect consumers from fraud and strengthen the free market economy, by making sure goods and services are reliable. 

In other words, capitalism does not exist without government.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20342]

Thank God the Dems took control of the house so they could preserve the Obama economic expansion. The American economy is so strong that not even Trump has fucked it up yet. 

 

 

[Foosters 17691]

5 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Please put me on ignore, I'll do the same for you.

Thanks.

haha

you don't care to address how you can tout free-market capitalism while simultaneously supporting Trump's anti-free market policies? 

[sidis 9713]

5 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Please put me on ignore, I'll do the same for you.

Thanks. 

[Lagunamadre 1975]

27 minutes ago, Zavala said:

The tax bill was relief to American corporations at the cost of foreign corporations profiting in America. 

The incentive to keep companies here and move companies that have gone foreign here. I love it. Stop paying slave wages to 3rd world countries to produce goods for Americans, and start creating goods here.

Seems to have worked, at least in Texas, there is more cranes in every city than I've seen in a while. Good stuff.

Do you like capitalism or not? I'm confused. 

 

[Longhorn94 2427]

capitalism is at its most successful when paired with progressive democracy. capitalism left unchecked leads to the same place that all economic systems left unchecked lead. capitalism requires regulation and structure to grow and continue to exist. without structure and regulation, capitalism consumes itself and turns into an oligarchy where the "haves" remove the competition from the market.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

23 minutes ago, Zavala said:

 

TIL: We fought WWII because of Germany's economic policies.

[Longhorn94 2427]

Just now, Lagunamadre said:

Do you like capitalism or not? I'm confused. 

 

he only likes the parts that Trump tells him to like. ya know the parts that he believes benefits his political beliefs.  he doesnt like the rest, ya know all the good parts of capitalism about efficiency of markets and allocation of resources...

[Foosters 17691]

If Zavala actually thinks Nazis were Democratic Socialists, then we'd all be better putting him on ignore. 

I expect to see that stuff on Facebook from one-toothed yokels. Not from graduates of the University of Texas.

[elfenix 34168]

26 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Capitalism, the system that has dragged the human race out of poverty.

Whats you better solution - Democratic Socialism? A system that has only been tried on successful existing economies, and caused them to crash. Led by a man who has never held a real job?

this may be the dumbest picture ever posted on this site. 

[Longhorn94 2427]

Just now, Foosters said:

If Zavala actually thinks Nazis were Democratic Socialists, then we'd all be better putting him on ignore. 

I expect to see that stuff on Facebook from one-toothed yokels. Not from graduates of the University of Texas.

but but but NAZI stands for NAtional SocIalists! Its just a shortened version! see proof they were Democratic Socialists! I think we are done here.

[David Dennison 18608]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

capitalism is at its most successful when paired with progressive democracy. capitalism left unchecked leads to the same place that all economic systems left unchecked lead. capitalism requires regulation and structure to grow and continue to exist. without structure and regulation, capitalism consumes itself and turns into an oligarchy where the "haves" remove the competition from the market.

If only there was a way to "mix" the best elements of various systems to enhance their best qualities while keeping their worst qualities in check.

 

[Zavala 1384]

17 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Thank God the Dems took control of the house so they could preserve the Obama economic expansion. The American economy is so strong that not even Trump has fucked it up yet. 

 

 

 

 

Economy good - Thanks Obama and Democrats

Economy bad - ORANGE MAN BAD!

[Biff Tannen 45477]

Man, I remember when I was young and ventured into the cloak room and posted shit like I knew what I was talking about.  Granted, I still don't know what I'm talking about, but at least I only post movie references and ask occasional questions.

[suddenly shaggy 929]

Zavala is a blatant troll. Stop feeding him. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

1 hour ago, Zavala said:

According to who? The banksters? 

So when this piss-poor balloon is stretched too thin, and starting to leak, you just slap expensive duct tape over the hole and keep pumping away?

The huge market drop was according to the market. You know the sum collective thoughts of all participants.  Liquidity had completely dried up. A large infusion of capital was the only thing that was going to get the pump re-primed and your little five figure eTrade account wasn’t going to do the trick. 

[gsoda3 3234]

15 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The huge market drop was according to the market. You know the sum collective thoughts of all participants.  Liquidity had completely dried up.

yeah that's not what the market is.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

It won't last.

I'll bet you tell your kids that the gifts they get your for Christmas suck.

[Foosters 17691]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'll bet you tell your kids that the gifts they get your for Christmas suck.

Look, if the GOP wants to hammer the message that the economy is great and all you whining workers should just know how good you have it, by all means. Almost like they've forgotten the rage that lead to people voting to "burn it down" just two years ago.

[Js1 85056]

4 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Look, if the GOP wants to hammer the message that the economy is great and all you whining workers should just know how good you have it, by all means. Almost like they've forgotten the rage that lead to people voting to "burn it down" just two years ago.

Quote

 

THE ECONOMY IS GREAT

Your healthcare sucks because we still want to take it away from you.

 

That message didn't sell in 2018 and it won't sell in 2020. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Look, if the GOP wants to hammer the message that the economy is great and all you whining workers should just know how good you have it, by all means. Almost like they've forgotten the rage that lead to people voting to "burn it down" just two years ago.

You're right. The economy sucks. I yield to your superior intelligence. 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You're right. The economy sucks. I yield to your superior intelligence. 

This is how teenagers argue.

[EuroHorn 3204]

Glad the economy is doing well...

[Foosters 17691]

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

You're right. The economy sucks. I yield to your superior intelligence. 

Grow up.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

7 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Grow up.

This is how teenagers argue.