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The Trump Economy: 3.2% GDP 1st Qtr 2019

JustBecause

By JustBecause
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mdmost

mdmost 42775

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, WBT said:

As always, presidents get too much credit and too much blame for the economy.  With that being said, his re-election chances have got to be done, right?  The only thing he had going for him was the stock market run up and we're now barely above where we were at his inauguration and probably drop below there next week.  The election is 8 months away but I don't see enough of a recovery by then to make much difference.  This is going to sink him just like 2008 sunk McCain's chances.

Maybe by the summer, things will head back up. If this plateaus and things go back to a more normal state, then the market might go back up. 

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WBT

WBT 20397

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Generally true, but in this case, this dipshit is absolutely responsible, at least for the depths to which it is crashing.  A sane, rational president would at least have been able to mitigate it somewhat.  He actively makes it worse.

I don't think it would make much difference.  This was going to spread globally no matter what.

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Nivek

Nivek 16808

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

I don't think it would make much difference.  This was going to spread globally no matter what.

Having contingency plans in place and people BEFORE you need them is the responsibility of government.  Obama had these and we dealt with numerous other infectious diseases quite well with his administration.  Our current idiots simply pretended it wasn't real, it wasn't that bad, and it wasn't anything to worry about.  Now they are reeling because of what they are hearing about in other nations.   Why did we not plan ahead or get the testing done in a timely manner?  Why are we behind everyone else?   There is only one group of people to blame, Republicans.  They own this disease.  They voted for the idiot, they support the idiot, they spread the lies.  This is on them.

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Foosters

Foosters 17691

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

I don't think it would make much difference.  This was going to spread globally no matter what.

So the countries who were proactive and had testing and care in place having a much better handle on it than others is a coincidence?

And Iran and Italy having fucking meltdowns is just bad luck?

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5908

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Having contingency plans in place and people BEFORE you need them is the responsibility of government.  Obama had these and we dealt with numerous other infectious diseases quite well with his administration.  Our current idiots simply pretended it wasn't real, it wasn't that bad, and it wasn't anything to worry about.  Now they are reeling because of what they are hearing about in other nations.   Why did we not plan ahead or get the testing done in a timely manner?  Why are we behind everyone else?   There is only one group of people to blame, Republicans.  They own this disease.  They voted for the idiot, they support the idiot, they spread the lies.  This is on them.

Trump owns the economy now and whatever epidemics that arise under his presidency.  And he owns them by his own definitions for which he held others, Obama with a fully functioning CDC,  accountable.  Trump and the Republicans are being fitted for their albatrosses.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yeah, those Q3 and Q4 estimates seem...high.

I don't think so. There will be a lot of pent up potential energy turned kinetic once (if?) we get past the glut of this pandemic in June/July/August. This is an external locus of control thing that has affected the machine, not the inner working of the machine failing.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18608

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I don't think so. There will be a lot of pent up potential energy turned kinetic once (if?) we get past the glut of this pandemic in June/July/August. This is an external locus of control thing that has affected the machine, not the inner working of the machine failing.

Assuming people get their jobs back by then.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Assuming people get their jobs back by then.

The assumption is a fairly good one if you buy the premise that demand is pent up and artificially caged (quarantined?) and that in near immediacy the engine will be purring back to life and people will be clamoring to buy crap and eat out and get wasted in the streets and on beaches and back to fighting each other on worldstar and catching legacy diseases from hooking up and clubs, etc.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45513

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I don't think so. There will be a lot of pent up potential energy turned kinetic once (if?) we get past the glut of this pandemic in June/July/August. This is an external locus of control thing that has affected the machine, not the inner working of the machine failing.

That will be just in time for CV to start roaring back if it's seasonal, as they suspect.

I would take 6.25% U3 all day long.  That's about where we were in 2014.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

That will be just in time for it to start roaring back if it's seasonal, as they suspect.

I would take 6.25% U3 all day long.  That's about where we were in 2014.

I hope you are right.

The thing to bake in, however, is that people are modeling this out like the Spanish Flu which means this disaster will roar back EOQ4 and Q1FY21, affecting Q4 and early next year amounting the JPMC estimates as a mere bounce instead of a recovery. Obviously, nobody knows and if a vaccine is on the horizon during Q1FY21 that mitigates a lot of the damage you'd think...

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18608

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

The assumption is a fairly good one if you buy the premise that demand is pent up and artificially caged (quarantined?) and that in near immediacy the engine will be purring back to life and people will be clamoring to buy crap and eat out and get wasted in the streets and on beaches and back to fighting each other on worldstar and catching legacy diseases from hooking up and clubs, etc.

A lot of the places to eat are never coming back.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

A lot of the places to eat are never coming back.

Even if I agree with you here (not sure how to quantify "a lot"), there will be replacements and new eateries entering the fray to fill the void of those which are never going to come back once things are stabilized (assuming it's a profitable exercise).

Edited by Rougarou
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45477

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

The assumption is a fairly good one if you buy the premise that demand is pent up and artificially caged (quarantined?) and that in near immediacy the engine will be purring back to life and people will be clamoring to buy crap and eat out and get wasted in the streets and on beaches and back to fighting each other on worldstar and catching legacy diseases from hooking up and clubs, etc.

you live a wild life man

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32290

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Even if I agree with you here (not sure how to quantify "a lot"), there will be replacements and new eateries entering the fray to fill the void of those which are never going to come back once things are stabilized (assuming it's a profitable exercise).

Or, to be a total contrarian, we might be on the cusp of a Great Depression, and eating out will be the least of our worries.

 

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11074

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Or, to be a total contrarian, we might be on the cusp of a Great Depression, and eating out will be the least of our worries.

 

Mnuchin out there talking about 20% unemployment.  

My Nobel isn't in economics, but I think that could be bad.

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted (edited)

there was always going to be a blow off in the markets given this yuge run up.  now there is a plausible reason for it whether actually right or wrong.  

one comment though is that the stock buybacks from almost all of these companies really looks stupid.

edit: unless there was some savant CEO who saved his powder to buy now.

Edited by zork
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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5908

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

We are some lucky motherfuckers if unemployment peaks at 6.25.  I hope she's right.

thought the same--6.25 seems really low in light of what's going on--closing in on a full work stoppage while viral cases increase by the thousands daily.   Aside from education, university's are losing millions--meal plans and dorms having to get partially reimbursed, along with summer housing in limbo.  The service industry is hemorrhaging and oil and gas are tanking as well. The auto industry is shut down and transportation is nosediving.  With ridership now down 70-80 percent, the metro in DC is literally saying, don't take the metro to see the cherry blossoms. There's a lot going on right now which won't get sorted for a while longer, provided everything goes right.  DOTARDs stupidity hasn't crested by a long shot.       

Edited by Mdhorn
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19118

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Better try 10-20%

I think this is going to be the case.  My purely WAG is unemployment will peak around 15%.

It's also going to take longer to get down below 5%  than a lot of people are thinking.  We aren't going to turn on a dime and get back to where we were anytime soon.

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11074

Posted
Posted

From CNBC:

Judging by numerous forecasts from economists, the avalanche of furloughs will easily break the record for most in a single month.

Upcoming weekly jobless claims will shatter the standards set even during the worst points of the financial crisis and the early-1980s recession, with Bank of America forecasting a total of 3 million when the number is released Thursday. Those figures are expected to be so bad, in fact, that the Trump administration, according to several media reports, has asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

...

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3204

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

From CNBC:

Judging by numerous forecasts from economists, the avalanche of furloughs will easily break the record for most in a single month.

Upcoming weekly jobless claims will shatter the standards set even during the worst points of the financial crisis and the early-1980s recession, with Bank of America forecasting a total of 3 million when the number is released Thursday. Those figures are expected to be so bad, in fact, that the Trump administration, according to several media reports, has asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

...

Hooray?

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9882

Posted
Posted

I’d do incredibly indecent things for 6.25% unemployment at the end of this thing.  
 

The damage to the service industry alone is going to epic.  That will quickly infect the commercial real estate and associated manufacturing industries (who needs new pans and industrial stoves when 80% of America’s restaurants have closed permanently and thrown all that used equipment into auction).  If we manage to get out of this without an associated debt crisis it will be a fucking miracle.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11740

Posted
Posted (edited)

Let’s also not forget the oil sector and the oversized impact that the low price is going to have on Texas.

So in addition to all the service sector layoffs do to ppl staying at home, we get an oil downturn lay-off as well.

And what this is going to do to our state budget. Teacher layoffs, government workers furloughed, road projects canceled, increased child poverty, increased crime, increased child services... you see where this is headed.

Texas is going to feel this.... hard. 

Edited by Dnaguy
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9882

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Let’s also not forget the oil sector and the oversized impact that the low price is going to have on Texas.

So in addition to all the service sector layoffs do to ppl staying at home, we get an oil downturn lay-off as well.

And what this is going to do to our state budget. Teacher layoffs, government workers furloughed, road projects canceled, increased child poverty, increased crime, increased child services... you see where this is headed.

Texas is going to feel this.... hard. 

I mean, pull up the traffic map of Austin, LA, or DC at 8 am on Monday.  Nobody is driving.  The demand for gasoline is going to absolutely crash for at least the next 6-8 weeks. That has a cascading effect throughout the refinery process. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11740

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I mean, pull up the traffic map of Austin, LA, or DC at 8 am on Monday.  Nobody is driving.  The demand for gasoline is going to absolutely crash for at least the next 6-8 weeks. That has a cascading effect throughout the refinery process. 

Believe me... as someone who derives a living from processing carbon molecules on the back end, I know.

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11074

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

house of cards. 

That's the exact term I used with my step father back in December when he was crowing about Trump's economy.  

I told him I thought there's be a major correction this year, but obviously I didn't see this coming.  I was just talking about how the Fed and stimulus were just acting as a sugar high and the bill was coming due.

Add a pandemic to the mix...and specifically one that will disproportionately effect the largest economy in the world because of total ineptitude, and well...hold on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

That's the exact term I used with my step father back in December when he was crowing about Trump's economy.  

I’m assuming he spent much of the conversation talking about the exploding debt and how irresponsible it is for us to “KICK THIS CAN DOWN THE ROAD TO MY GRANDKIDS!”, right?

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11740

Posted
Posted

Let us all also remember that before this crisis, Trump was criticizing the fed for not having negative rates.

Thats right, he was advocating for negative rates while the economy was already on cocaine from a Corporate tax cut, trillion dollar deficit, and low interest rates (that were probably lower than they should have been strictly because Trump was constantly criticizing Powell on Twitter).

I mean, can you imagine how much worse this would be had he got his way!!?

Every impulse he has is wrong.

The only thing that has saved this country so far has been when people just refuse to do what he asks.... there a so many examples of ppl just refusing to do what he says and we’re better for it. It so incredibly frightening that we just forget it for self preservation.

 

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Bullneck

Bullneck 18976

Posted
Posted
On 3/18/2020 at 5:53 PM, David Dennison said:

Assuming people get their jobs back by then.

Having lived through the Texas Oil Bust in the '80s and the Florida Real Estate bust in the '00s my experience is that once the wheels come off the economy it takes a while to put them back on.

Or as Keynes said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Having lived through the Texas Oil Bust in the '80s and the Florida Real Estate bust in the '00s my experience is that once the wheels come off the economy it takes a while to put them back on.

Or as Keynes said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Noted resident economist @Onboard 2.0 wants you to know there’s going to be a lot of “pent up demand” and that we’ll rebound quickly.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Noted resident economist @Onboard 2.0 wants you to know there’s going to be a lot of “pent up demand” and that we’ll rebound quickly.

Thanks for the plug.  $9.95 for the whole newsletter.  Maybe you'd rather I just say we're all doomed.  Fuck me.

Look at why were shutting down, not because of market factors, inflation, or we've run out of oil.  

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Tell us about the “pent up demand”!

Really ?  You need a definition of it ?  The economy was running at low inflation, no big issues looming.  People are gonna  be ready to get out, get on with their lives, pick back up at work,  go to restaurants,  take trips (those with money on the last one).   Some will start businesses.  

I'm in a  construction related industry, and none of my clients have put design work on hold, they're trying to get permits, they're trying to get projects finished. I talk to people in the real estate industry, and they're still seeing huge demands for new homes. 

That could all change if this goes on for a really long prolonged period of time. Who knows if I'm right, it's just an opinion, I've spoken with others about, and many share a similar outlook (at least here in Va. and a couple other places)  I'm not gonna woes me till I need to, but hey have at it.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31184

Posted
Posted
On 3/18/2020 at 8:31 PM, zork said:

there was always going to be a blow off in the markets given this yuge run up.  now there is a plausible reason for it whether actually right or wrong.  

one comment though is that the stock buybacks from almost all of these companies really looks stupid.

edit: unless there was some savant CEO who saved his powder to buy now.

Yknow what else looks really stupid now?  The tax cut that enabled that shit.

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