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The Trump Economy: 3.2% GDP 1st Qtr 2019

JustBecause

By JustBecause
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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Really ?  You need a definition of it ?  The economy was running at low inflation, no big issues looming.  People are gonna  be ready to get out, get on with their lives, pick back up at work,  go to restaurants,  take trips (those with money on the last one).   Some will start businesses.  

I'm in a  construction related industry, and none of my clients have put design work on hold, they're trying to get permits, they're trying to get projects finished. I talk to people in the real estate industry, and they're still seeing huge demands for new homes. 

That could all change if this goes on for a really long prolonged period of time. Who knows if I'm right, it's just an opinion, I've spoken with others about, and many share a similar outlook (at least here in Va. and a couple other places)  I'm not gonna woes me till I need to, but hey have at it.

Ah yes, construction in a rural mountain community loaded with second homes...a recession proof industry, impervious to 20+% unemployment and a 50% drop in the stock market. 

You and @markstanco should start a newsletter with tips on how to build an empire through a depression.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Ah yes, construction in a rural mountain community loaded with second homes...a recession proof industry, impervious to 20+% unemployment and a 50% drop in the stock market. 

You and @markstanco should start a newsletter with tips on how to build an empire through a depression.

You do understand that construction is one of THE major industries in the country ?  It crosses all socio economic worlds, but keep going this is fun.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45513

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

You do understand that construction is one of THE major industries in the country ?  It crosses all socio economic worlds, but keep going this is fun.

I don't know that industry nearly so well as you do, but it would be hard to convince me that a massive downturn isn't around the corner.

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Bullneck

Bullneck 18976

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Noted resident economist @Onboard 2.0 wants you to know there’s going to be a lot of “pent up demand” and that we’ll rebound quickly.

That's if people aren't afraid to spend money for fear that things could get worse.  Also, other than government payments many won't have money to spend given they live paycheck to paycheck.  

The coming recession might not be so bad (virus gone = back to business as usual) but but it looks like some underlying structural weaknesses, mainly gig economy/lack of wage growth since 1970 have been exposed.

Texas won't be immune with the Russians and Saudis dumping oil.  Surely everyone remember when we thought if the Iraqis and Iranians fought it out oil prices would skyrocket an we'd be selling $90 a barrel (make up a number to suit yourself) and all be rich.  In 1980 when I was at UT it was $37. In 1986 when I got out of the Marines and had to find a civilian job it was $14. 

 Ruh, roh

 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted

The best case scenario is the “V recovery” which is what is looking to be happening in China (who despite causing this mess, has had a really laudable and efficient response to limit the damage and get over it as quickly as possible). The V recovery implies “pent up demand”. I don’t think OnBoards point is “point and laugh” ridiculous, though it is a low probability, best case scenario.

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Bullneck

Bullneck 18976

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

The best case scenario is the “V recovery” which is what is looking to be happening in China (who despite causing this mess, has had a really laudable and efficient response to limit the damage and get over it as quickly as possible). The V recovery implies “pent up demand”. I don’t think OnBoards point is “point and laugh” ridiculous, though it is a low probability, best case scenario.

Or more likely, wishful thinking.  But the DC area has been in a building boom for many years so I can see how he might not have the same perspective as the rest of us.

It's March.  I think the real "best case basis" is many, many people will wait till after the election in November to really get rolling again.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
On 3/21/2020 at 12:53 PM, Rougarou said:

The best case scenario is the “V recovery” which is what is looking to be happening in China (who despite causing this mess, has had a really laudable and efficient response to limit the damage and get over it as quickly as possible). The V recovery implies “pent up demand”. I don’t think OnBoards point is “point and laugh” ridiculous, though it is a low probability, best case scenario.

Its easier for China to "pause" its economy.  A restaurant owner can be quarantined for 3 months and go right back to it.  US small businesses, especially those with storefronts, aren't going to make it out of the bottom.  That will cause the rest to fall like dominoes.  But if it is limited to 2 months and we actually pass the proper aid packages to keep small businesses from folding we could have a quick recovery. 

I'm not sure we need to bailout airlines and other similar large industries.  Let them declare bankruptcy, restructure, or firesale.  Bailout 401ks that hold the bag on bad stock if you want to bailout anyone.

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elfenix

elfenix 34168

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Posted
37 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

A restaurant owner can be quarantined for 3 months and go right back to it. 

yup.  in china the government tells everyone to sit down and shut the fuck up and they do.  here?  well the bank is still gonna take that mortgage payment from the restaurant's landlord on the 5th so the landlord really needs the rent on the 1st and the restaurant needs to pay its suppliers and the suppliers have to pay their suppliers and pay rent and the warehouse's landlord has to make its mortgage payments and maybe if we had competent, effective leadership s/he could tell the banks to hold on for a bit and pretend a month or two doesn't exist and just extend all the loans out for 2 months but even if they agreed it'd be so incompetently rolled out that half of them would be starting foreclosure proceedings next month. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29187

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Maybe capitalism isn't all it's cracked up to be. 

The problem is that capitalism is a capricious god and not enough of us believed in him, so now we've got to sate his anger with blood sacrifices of 2-4 million Americans.

Or, you know, we could remove everyone who thinks that way from power and let adults be in charge. 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The problem is that capitalism is a capricious god and not enough of us believed in him, so now we've got to sate his anger with blood sacrifices of 2-4 million Americans.

Or, you know, we could remove everyone who thinks that way from power and let adults be in charge. 

Feel free to start your own website, country , DSA, Bernie-type revolution, newsletter lol

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Because they can control every level of the chain.  You can get back to work after 3 months as if it was the next day without having to pay 3 months worth of back bills.

uhhh, that isn't how their market works but ok.

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32290

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Posted

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/oil-execs-to-trump-whose-side-are-you-on-145927

 

Quote

Last August, President Donald Trump stood before workers in Western Pennsylvania, where Shell Oil was building a new natural gas processing facility, and celebrated the nation’s shale boom.

"That’s our gold,” Trump declared. “That’s gold underneath our feet."

 

Quote

For almost the entirety of his administration, Trump has bragged about U.S. “energy dominance” and the riches that oil and gas would bring to the country thanks to his administration’s full-throated support. Now, however, Trump’s dream of a golden, dominant energy industry is almost gone and, industry executives said, so is his full-throated support.

 

Quote

Worse, some industry executives say, Trump seems either not to recognize the threat or to be unwilling or unable to address it, touting instead his excitement over lower prices for consumers.

"Good for the consumer, gasoline prices coming down!" Trump tweeted on March 9, as the domestic oil price fell by 25 percent.

 

Quote

In POLITICO interviews, half a dozen industry officials who have talked with White House officials in recent days described Trump as slow to comprehend the twin body blows a global pandemic and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia would have on an industry he has long supported. Oil prices at $20 a barrel threaten to rain destruction on an industry that has donated $1.8 million to Trump's reelection campaign and employs hundreds of thousands of people in states key to any hope to beat his eventual Democratic rival for the presidency.

Already, Trump’s favorability is quite low in Texas — 45 percent in a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll from early February, before the coronavirus crisis — compared to other predominantly Republican states, and he similarly lags in next-door New Mexico, a Democratic-leaning state which he hopes to win.

 

Quote

On March 19, industry representatives discussed with administration officials a draft letter asking Trump to redouble efforts to pressure Saudi Arabia to curb production, a person involved with the group told POLITICO. But staff at the State Department suggested sending the letter instead to Kushner instead, as the statement might be "too blunt" for the president, the person said.

At that point the companies threw the letter away, the person added.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

Posted
Posted
On 3/21/2020 at 11:57 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Not sure which is more appropriate.  This...

giphy.gif

 

or this...

giphy.gif

I projected basically zero sales once school shut down/ reasoning nobody was going to buy a house during times like that. I’m working on contracts 7 and 8’coming in tomorrow. I’m actually pretty shocked by how high demand is. Everyone else I speak with is reporting the same. 

If we have jobs to come back to this thing will all work out itself out with no big deal. 

I’ve personally predicted an outcome somewhere between the Great Recession and depression- with blood and carnage in the street, but apparently I’ve underestimated America’s ability and willingness to shrug it off, call it a flesh wound and get on with the business of spending.

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zork

zork 629

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I projected basically zero sales once school shut down/ reasoning nobody was going to buy a house during times like that. I’m working on contracts 7 and 8’coming in tomorrow. I’m actually pretty shocked by how high demand is. Everyone else I speak with is reporting the same. 

If we have jobs to come back to this thing will all work out itself out with no big deal. 

I’ve personally predicted an outcome somewhere between the Great Recession and depression- with blood and carnage in the street, but apparently I’ve underestimated America’s ability and willingness to shrug it off, call it a flesh wound and get on with the business of spending.

I hope you are right with your latest observation and it continues to stay steady or improve.  Too soon to tell AFAIK.  Where is your new house, in general, BTW?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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Posted
8 minutes ago, zork said:

I hope you are right with your latest observation and it continues to stay steady or improve.  Too soon to tell AFAIK.  Where is your new house, in general, BTW?

I work in north east houston. Bought a new place in Huffman. 6 acres but 45 minutes from Minute Maid park. Love the place. Shocked by this demand. I still think my initial instinct of 5 years of pain and misery is more likely to be right, but I liked the high points I saw from the stimulus package. I’m in wait and see mode and moving back a tiny tiny bit from the ledge. 

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I work in north east houston. Bought a new place in Huffman. 6 acres but 45 minutes from Minute Maid park. Love the place. Shocked by this demand. I still think my initial instinct of 5 years of pain and misery is more likely to be right, but I liked the high points I saw from the stimulus package. I’m in wait and see mode and moving back a tiny tiny bit from the ledge. 

Are both of your title shops in the Houston area?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, zork said:

Are both of your title shops in the Houston area?

Mortgage shop and title shop.  Mortgage in NE metro, title in NW metro area. 

Title I’m really uninvolved with. Keep the books, use my law license- act as a sounding board for a couple really talented women. Mortgage gets 90% of my attention. 

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staboner

staboner 4955

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Talked to a buddy that owns a construction business. 6 of his 8 projects were paused, he just laid off 30 employees. 

The speed at which things are tanking is unreal.

this disaster is going to really jostle the supply side of so many industries.  some people will be able to rebuild, some won't. Those that can stay alive and then lead have a great chance to really grab more business back than when they hit the pause button. 

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staboner

staboner 4955

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I'm sorry. It's an exploitative system that doesn't come anywhere close to compensating labor for the wealth it produces.

every system is exploitative (you socialists use the best adjectives, just the best), otherwise it wouldn't be a system. it eventually gets corrupted, just like everything else does. 

Oh fuck it whatever, I hate trying to argue with socialists.

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ndawg

ndawg 1242

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, staboner said:

every system is exploitative (you socialists use the best adjectives, just the best), otherwise it wouldn't be a system. it eventually gets corrupted, just like everything else does. 

Oh fuck it whatever, I hate trying to argue with socialists.

Maybe they don't like arguing with you, either.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18608

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, staboner said:

every system is exploitative (you socialists use the best adjectives, just the best), otherwise it wouldn't be a system. it eventually gets corrupted, just like everything else does. 

Oh fuck it whatever, I hate trying to argue with socialists.

None of that change the unfortunate reality that capitalism isn't all it's cracked up to be. Labor is called on once again has to rescue the ownership class.

One of these days, that shit isn't gonna wash.

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staboner

staboner 4955

Posted
Posted

the point, a joke, reality, just nothing. got nothing there guys. 

are you a robot? I have heard fascists make the best fucking robots, but its cool, I'll stop there as I feel this is derailing from the original conversation on how awesome the Q1 economy is doing

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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Posted

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/economy/unemployment-benefits-coronavirus/index.html

Quote

New York (CNN Business)A record number of Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week, as businesses shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Initial jobless claims soared to a seasonally adjusted 3.28 million in the week ended March 21, according to the Department of Labor.

That is the highest number of initial jobless claims in history, since the Department of Labor started tracking the data in 1967. The previous high was 695,000 claims filed in the week ending October 2, 1982.

Last week's jump marked a massive increase from a revised 282,000 claims in the prior week. Prior to the pandemic, initial claims had been hovering in the low 200,000s each week, reflecting a strong job market.

But in the last couple weeks, the coronavirus outbreak has forced many businesses to suddenly shut down as the country tries to slow the spreading virus. For many businesses that also means laying off workers, at least temporarily.

That is the key difference between the coronavirus shock compared with past periods of economic distress: it is sudden and impacts virtually every industry and business model around.

Economists now expect the US economy to fall into a recession in the second quarter, before staging a comeback later in the year after the spread of the virus slows.

 

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