2nd Round: Warriors vs. Rockets

[Machinator 32102]

 

[Machinator 32102]

 

[d2o 1603]

24 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

Really this is all I am saying.   If he is gonna miss games, I think it will more be than just 2 gms.   If it is something that he will be consdiered healed from in just 7 days then I find it hard to believe that he would sit out playoff games.   Perhaps the diagnosis and timeline is just them being "optimistic"

Edited May 10, 2019 by d2o

[ztejas 44114]

13 minutes ago, d2o said:

If he is gonna miss games, I think it will more be than just 2 gms.

Yeah no shit no one is disagreeing with you. How many times are you going to change stances in this thread? Jesus Christ dude take a lap.

I think he would likely be back for game 4 or 5 of the WCF were the Ws to make it.

Edited May 10, 2019 by ztejas

[d2o 1603]

9 hours ago, ztejas said:

Yeah no shit no one is disagreeing with you. How many times are you going to change stances in this thread? Jesus Christ dude take a lap.

I think he would likely be back for game 4 or 5 of the WCF were the Ws to make it.

Haven't changed a thing.  

[UTDD 362]

My gut is that Durant is going to be out about 2 weeks, maybe three if his calf is not responding well after a week evaluation.  I would say the earliest he returns is late in the WCF.  If Houston had the Chris Paul from just last year, I'd like their chances, but he's now 2019 Chris Paul which is a very different player versus last year when at times he was the best player on the floor.  I think Golden State can beat either Denver or Portland even without Durant but I would not like their chances against Milwaukee or Toronto as much where it would be a very tough series for sure.  Golden State is not the same 2016 team that did not have Durant (their bench especially and an aging Iggy as well) but they are still pretty good.  Certainly you will likely see better ball movement and the team will have a chip on its shoulder to show they can still win and it may also galvanize better effort especially on defense.   

[ChickenSandwich 9921]

17 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I think Morey is a great GM, but they have been mortgaging the future over there. They need to win now. They haven't had a first round pick since 2015 and they had to trade this year's first rounder to dump more salary. That's 4 straight years without a first round pick and as I mentioned the only decent young asset they have on their roster is Capela. It's one thing to dump Ryan Anderson at $35 million over two years, it's entirely another to dump $85 million for Chris Paul over two years, especially when you've got nothing else to offer other than draft picks. Plus  rookie contracts make the rest of the cap much more palatable and balanced when you are constantly signing vets to make a championship run. Harden is good enough to keep them in the playoffs for the foreseeable future, but they are going to have to make chicken salad with the rest of that roster if they want to win a ring.

Harden is still in his prime and they will build around that. The window with Paul is small, but you run it back one more season with KD somewhere else and the following year is an expiring deal (CP3, also about the time the Capella deal starts to come closer to an end)  

They are set up nicely to compete for the WCF for the next few seasons. 

[ChickenSandwich 9921]

18 minutes ago, UTDD said:

My gut is that Durant is going to be out about 2 weeks, maybe three if his calf is not responding well after a week evaluation.  I would say the earliest he returns is late in the WCF.  If Houston had the Chris Paul from just last year, I'd like their chances, but he's now 2019 Chris Paul which is a very different player versus last year when at times he was the best player on the floor.  I think Golden State can beat either Denver or Portland even without Durant but I would not like their chances against Milwaukee or Toronto as much where it would be a very tough series for sure.  Golden State is not the same 2016 team that did not have Durant (their bench especially and an aging Iggy as well) but they are still pretty good.  Certainly you will likely see better ball movement and the team will have a chip on its shoulder to show they can still win and it may also galvanize better effort especially on defense.   

Strange about Paul, this is the worst he has played all season, and he had some brilliant stretches (more than 10games at a time) this season and still looked like himself. He was also shooting 40% from 3. Peak Paul was the Houston V GSW game in Oakland without Harden. He lead the squad to a hard fought win. 

I think the length and athleticism of GS has taken away his paint presence and the 3 isn’t falling.  

[aggie08 21736]

24 minutes ago, UTDD said:

My gut is that Durant is going to be out about 2 weeks, maybe three if his calf is not responding well after a week evaluation.  I would say the earliest he returns is late in the WCF.  If Houston had the Chris Paul from just last year, I'd like their chances, but he's now 2019 Chris Paul which is a very different player versus last year when at times he was the best player on the floor.  I think Golden State can beat either Denver or Portland even without Durant but I would not like their chances against Milwaukee or Toronto as much where it would be a very tough series for sure.  Golden State is not the same 2016 team that did not have Durant (their bench especially and an aging Iggy as well) but they are still pretty good.  Certainly you will likely see better ball movement and the team will have a chip on its shoulder to show they can still win and it may also galvanize better effort especially on defense.   

This feels a lot like Game 5 of the 2016 Finals when they were without Green.  They'll come out swinging and playing fast and loose since this is a "freebie", but ultimately their lack of depth and weird rotations will do them in in the 2nd half.  They'll have to hope they can get something, anything from the bench at home in Game 7.  Sure would have been nice to have another competent wing right about now instead of "wasting" their MLE on Boogie.

[aggie08 21736]

8 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Strange about Paul, this is the worst he has played all season, and he had some brilliant stretches (more than 10games at a time) this season and still looked like himself. He was also shooting 40% from 3. Peak Paul was the Houston V GSW game in Oakland without Harden. He lead the squad to a hard fought win. 

I think the length and athleticism of GS has taken away his paint presence and the 3 isn’t falling.  

I've been surprised that Kerr has kept Steph on Gordon and Klay on CP3 all series, even with Gordon going off at various times and getting to the rim with ease.  Steph can't guard Gordon; he's too strong and physical.  But he can reasonably guard CP3, especially this version of him.  But I think Kerr doesn't want to risk giving Paul any confidence--knowing how important he is to the Rockets' offense--so he's kept Klay smothering him.  It seems to be paying off.

[UTDD 362]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

This feels a lot like Game 5 of the 2016 Finals when they were without Green.  They'll come out swinging and playing fast and loose since this is a "freebie", but ultimately their lack of depth and weird rotations will do them in in the 2nd half.  They'll have to hope they can get something, anything from the bench at home in Game 7.  Sure would have been nice to have another competent wing right about now instead of "wasting" their MLE on Boogie.

Agreed a lot on the lack of another wing, they easily could have had even a marginally acceptable wing to play a tough 18-20 minutes as backup.  You have to sacrifice some depth to have four Top 25 NBA players on the same team but even so I think they could have had say an Ennis like player on the cheap.  Even if KD leaves this summer, I still think they can put together a very competitive team (just not an overwhelming favorite anymore but a mere contender in a tier of maybe 4-5 teams assuming Kawhi/KD do not team up on the Clippers) that can compete deep into the playoffs if healthy.

[UTDD 362]

14 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Strange about Paul, this is the worst he has played all season, and he had some brilliant stretches (more than 10games at a time) this season and still looked like himself. He was also shooting 40% from 3. Peak Paul was the Houston V GSW game in Oakland without Harden. He lead the squad to a hard fought win. 

I think the length and athleticism of GS has taken away his paint presence and the 3 isn’t falling.  

Very true, I am very curious to see how Paul, Harden, and Capela play tonight given the situation.  Very much so a defining moment/chance for Paul and Harden in particular to see how they handle this opportunity.

[aggie08 21736]

16 minutes ago, UTDD said:

Agreed a lot on the lack of another wing, they easily could have had even a marginally acceptable wing to play a tough 18-20 minutes as backup.  You have to sacrifice some depth to have four Top 25 NBA players on the same team but even so I think they could have had say an Ennis like player on the cheap.  Even if KD leaves this summer, I still think they can put together a very competitive team (just not an overwhelming favorite anymore but a mere contender in a tier of maybe 4-5 teams assuming Kawhi/KD do not team up on the Clippers) that can compete deep into the playoffs if healthy.

Agreed.  They'll use their MLE on something useful next season instead of a risky gamble, cut bait with Livingston, and find a way to put NBA bodies on the bench.  Right now, they just have a shit bench and 3 rotation players sitting in street clothes, including Damian Jones.  He was their starting center at the beginning of the year when they were plaything their best basketball.  He's not a great player by any means, but he's an athletic warm body and fits into their system perfectly (set hard screen, roll to basket, catch ball, dunk ball).  They really like him.  Would have been interesting to see how the minutes would have been distributed between he, Looney, and Boogie against Houston had they all been healthy.

Edited May 10, 2019 by aggie08

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Durant being out will really benefit Capela and Chris Paul on offense.

Durant is a beast of a defender now.

[HoustonFrog 368]

I like how the NBA makes no time concessions for when the game is at GSW (9:30central, 7:30 local), but when it’s in Houston they move it back 30 minutes to 8pm central (6pm GSW).

I don’t mind moving it to 8pm in Houston, but they need to move the West Coast games to 9pm.


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[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

I like how the NBA makes no time concessions for when the game is at GSW (9:30central, 7:30 local), but when it’s in Houston they move it back 30 minutes to 8pm central (6pm GSW).

I don’t mind moving it to 8pm in Houston, but they need to move the West Coast games to 9pm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Shit really fucks with you if you watch a game on east coast time and it's 1245 at the start of the 4th

[Mitch Cumsteen 18913]

2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The window with Paul is small, but you run it back one more season with KD somewhere else and the following year is an expiring deal (CP3, also about the time the Capella deal starts to come closer to an end)  

That's not what I'm seeing when I look at their salaries and future cap. CP3 is signed up for three more years after this one. You run it back next year and he still has two more years after that at $41 and $44 million per. Capela is signed for four more years (one year beyond Paul). And also, Harden's deal is escalating. In CP3's last two years on his contract, Harden is making $37 and $40 million. Between those three guys alone they account for $93 million in 2020, $99 million in 2021, and $106 million in 2022. They also have Eric Gordon expiring after next season. I see their window as this year and next. After that, Morey is going to have to be a magician to straddle the cap and build out a championship roster.

[ChickenSandwich 9921]

Good info on Paul. I could see them trading Gordon who still has a ton of value for the right player. 

While Cap’s deal is longer, it is at a good number (20/yr w/growing salary cap) and he is still young. I think teams would take on that contract now even with this playoff performance. 

Harden is your superstar. We all know how hard it is to acquire one through FA, draft, or trade. Better or worse this team will be built around Harden for the next 5 years and he should be in his prime for most of it. 

Edited May 10, 2019 by ChickenSandwich

[d2o 1603]

44 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

1 hour ago, HoustonFrog said:

I like how the NBA makes no time concessions for when the game is at GSW (9:30central, 7:30 local), but when it’s in Houston they move it back 30 minutes to 8pm central (6pm GSW).

I don’t mind moving it to 8pm in Houston, but they need to move the West Coast games to 9pm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Read more  

Shit really fucks with you if you watch a game on east coast time and it's 1245 at the start of the 4th

Yeah that shit has been killing me.    I went to sleep with my son at 9.  Woke up at about 12:00 to catch the 2nd half and the game didnt end until after 1:00.   I really struggled to get through those last few mins.

[Skipper 6406]

4 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Agreed.  They'll use their MLE on something useful next season instead of a risky gamble, cut bait with Livingston, and find a way to put NBA bodies on the bench.  Right now, they just have a shit bench and 3 rotation players sitting in street clothes, including Damian Jones.  He was their starting center at the beginning of the year when they were plaything their best basketball.  He's not a great player by any means, but he's an athletic warm body and fits into their system perfectly (set hard screen, roll to basket, catch ball, dunk ball).  They really like him.  Would have been interesting to see how the minutes would have been distributed between he, Looney, and Boogie against Houston had they all been healthy.

Exactly.  Houston's window is right now.  GS will be much better on paper next year after replacing Durant than they are for the next 2 games with their shit depth.  Denver should be better as well.  

[Vic Mackey 47849]

Yeah if Houston can't take advantage of this opportunity right now, they never will with this core.

[immortal13 4059]

5 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

Yeah if Houston can't take advantage of this opportunity right now, they never will with this core.

Houston is going to choke

[Tylerocks 2595]

5 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

Houston is going to choke

Can a lower seeded team that is behind in a series choke?

[d2o 1603]

If that last quarter was any indication, Harden has not gotten over his tendency to choke.    That was terrible.

[d2o 1603]

Just now, Tylerocks said:

Can a lower seeded team that is behind in a series choke?

When they are favored to win the game, which they are.   Sure.

[NowThis 931]

2 minutes ago, Tylerocks said:

Can a lower seeded team that is behind in a series choke?

when 2 of GS starters are out

[immortal13 4059]

13 minutes ago, Tylerocks said:

Can a lower seeded team that is behind in a series choke?

With Durant out I don't see how you can't call it a choke if they lose tonight at home. 

[Tylerocks 2595]

I guess I'm thinking more in terms of the series.

 

I'd just call it a loss to a clearly superior team.

Them being without KD obviously improves the Rockets chances of winning, but doesn't mean it's going to be a breeze.

 

[ztejas 44114]

34 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

With Durant out I don't see how you can't call it a choke if they lose tonight at home. 

It's a choke if they choke. Like if Harden goes 6/25 shooting and CP3 tears a rotator cuff going for a helicopter flop. 

It isn't a choke if Klay and Curry combine for like 20 3s or some shit. 

[immortal13 4059]

It will be a choke if they lose tonight, period

[Vic Mackey 47849]

If Houston wins tonight, we get three game 7s on Sunday. That would be fun.

[Vic Mackey 47849]

1 hour ago, immortal13 said:

It will be a choke if they lose tonight, period

Absolutely. They are favored by 7-8 points. They would probably be favored even if KD played. There is no way you can justify or spin it if Houston loses tonight. As a basketball fan, I hope they win so we get another game 7 to enjoy. 

[HtownHorn 15243]

54 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

Absolutely. They are favored by 7-8 points. They would probably be favored even if KD played. There is no way you can justify or spin it if Houston loses tonight. As a basketball fan, I hope they win so we get another game 7 to enjoy. 

Yeah it will be a big choke by Harden and Paul, though Paul has been almost completely absent from this series. Harden was at least matching Durant, Paul has been the 4th best Rocket in this series, and if not for Austin Rivers going cold in game 5, 5th best Rocket.

[LTtxfan 49912]

Based on a few recent posts...... here 's some advice to make tonight's game more enjoyable for Rockets fans..... 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5477]

I just want another close game. 

[Dutchrudder 11229]

The NBA needs all the game 7s they can get, I think the Rockets will win this one, but game 7 is unlikely.

[BigOrange1 6610]

3 hours ago, d2o said:

If that last quarter was any indication, Harden has not gotten over his tendency to choke.    That was terrible.

how was it terrible?  click on this thread, watch it and tell me how it was terrible.  the point of offensive possessions is to put the ball in the basket.  the rockets did that remarkably well down the stretch.  harden gets shit on because he was playing team ball?

 

[LTtxfan 49912]

A game 7 for this great series would be EPIC....

 

[HtownHorn 15243]

30 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

how was it terrible?  click on this thread, watch it and tell me how it was terrible.  the point of offensive possessions is to put the ball in the basket.  the rockets did that remarkably well down the stretch.  harden gets shit on because he was playing team ball?

 

Yep, if Paul hits 2 of his 6 missed 3 pointers(0-6), the Rockets likely win that game and are looking to close out the Warriors tonight. Game 5 was a game where no one outside of Harden and Tucker played worth a shit until Gordon's brief 4Q run which made his performance look presentable on the surface.

[Eskimohorn 5677]

It will be a choke if they lose tonight, period

The Warriors still have 3 all-stars and a nucleus than won a championship and 140 regular season games in two years. Klay and Steph can still light it up. It’s a pick’em game against an old ass Rockets team deep in a series.

[immortal13 4059]

30 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

 

The Warriors still have 3 all-stars and a nucleus than won a championship and 140 regular season games in two years. Klay and Steph can still light it up. It’s a pick’em game against an old ass Rockets team deep in a series.
 

 

Yeah, no shit.

It will still be a choke if the Rockets lose tonight.

[ztejas 44114]

2 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

I think the Rockets will win this one, but game 7 is unlikely.

Math is hard

[aggie08 21736]

52 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

 

The Warriors still have 3 all-stars and a nucleus than won a championship and 140 regular season games in two years. Klay and Steph can still light it up. It’s a pick’em game against an old ass Rockets team deep in a series.
 

 

-7.5 isn't exactly a pick 'em. It's a February line for Toronto vs. Atlanta. 

I'd agree with you that this game should be close if Golden State had a single person on the bench drawing a pulse. Iggy and Looney can't play 45 minutes, and their replacements are Jerebko and McKinnie.

Say the Splash Brothers combine for 60...where are the other 50 points coming from?

It would be a massive choke. In Oracle less so because bench players play better at home. But losing tonight would be disastrous for Houston.

Edited May 11, 2019 by aggie08

[Mitch Cumsteen 18913]

 

9 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

-7.0 isn't exactly a pick 'em. It's a February line for Toronto vs. Atlanta. 

I'd agree with you that this game should be close if Golden State had a single person on the bench drawing a pulse. Iggy and Looney can't play 45 minutes, and their replacements are Jerebko and McKinnie.

Say the Splash Brothers combine for 60...where are the other 50 points coming from?

It would be a massive choke. In Oracle less so because bench players play better at home. But losing tonight would be disastrous for Houston.

The Aggie is spot on. Will be interesting to see if it's a tight game and how Houston and particularly Harden react down the stretch.

I also think there is an element of "we won before Durant, let's show em that we don't really need him" type of thing coming from the warriors, especially in light of all the New York talk.

[Dutchrudder 11229]

20 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Math is hard

I mean I don't think they will win the ensuing game 7. 

[aggie08 21736]

7 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I also think there is an element of "we won before Durant

I'm certain some of that sentiment is circling around the locker room. They'll try to galvanize around it. But their 29-4 record w/o Durant at least included NBA basketball players outside of the Big 3. And those games weren't against Houston in the playoffs, where you wouldn't even dream of playing Bogut or Cook. Lord help me, but I'd take Nick Young right about now.

Edited May 11, 2019 by aggie08

[hobbes2702 13353]

21 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

-7.5 isn't exactly a pick 'em. It's a February line for Toronto vs. Atlanta. 

I'd agree with you that this game should be close if Golden State had a single person on the bench drawing a pulse. Iggy and Looney can't play 45 minutes, and their replacements are Jerebko and McKinnie.

Say the Splash Brothers combine for 60...where are the other 50 points coming from?

It would be a massive choke. In Oracle less so because bench players play better at home. But losing tonight would be disastrous for Houston.

You’ll know better than I will but why doesn’t McKinnie get at least a bit more time. Every time I watch him he’s giving effort, looks good on the offensive glass, and seems to be able to stand and hit corner threes as well as anyone else. Am I missing something?

[aggie08 21736]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

You’ll know better than I will but why doesn’t McKinnie get at least a bit more time. Every time I watch him he’s giving effort, looks good on the offensive glass, and seems to be able to stand and hit corner threes as well as anyone else. Am I missing something?

He'll get more time tonight, that's for sure. I actually like the guy. He's been great all year considering he came in with absolutely zero expectation. Like you say, sneaky good rebounder. But he's 0-5 from 3 so far in the series, and I want to say three of those didn't hit rim. The moment is probably a little big for him.

[aggie08 21736]

9 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And those games weren't against Houston in the playoffs, where you wouldn't even dream of playing Bogut

Or you start him. What the fuck do I know.

[aggie08 21736]

This is getting a little pathetic, CP3.