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2019 San Antonio Spurs Offseason Thread -- Rebuild or Run it Back?

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18575

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16 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Our roster is pretty filled out as of now, especially if we re-sign Rudy, under that premise the under contract roster looks like this:

Guards -- Murray, White, Mills, Forbes

Swing players -- DeRozan, Walker IV, Gay, Belinelli, Bertans

Bigs -- LMA, Poeltl, Metu

Now we could probably have Metu spend a lot of time in Austin, but Lonnie needs minutes with the big club so that's 12 under contract.  Pop will want his requisite old vet off the bench or two, so dependent on how young we want to go, I could see a trade out of 29 to get some roster flexibility and a better asset next year or 2020.

 

That's really young roster. I count 7 guys with 4 or fewer years of experience. I just can't see them adding 2 more rookies to that with only three spots to fill. Barring a trade, I can't imagine that one of the picks isn't a draft and stash or someone like the guy from Auburn that blew out his knee and won't see any time next season. BTW, I would love for them to draft him with their second pick.

And I don't think it's a big mystery what their needs are -- they've got to find a long wing defender and/or a stretch 4. They are woefully lacking front court players and have a logjam in the backcourt with young guys who need developmental minutes. I'm not sure exactly why but I'm drawn to Matisse Thybulle from Washington. He may be a little bit shorter than I'd prefer but he's got a 7 foot wingspan. He's a defensive terror who lacks consistency on offense. Get Chip to fix his jumper and he will be a nasty 3 and D guy. The thing that kind of stands out for me with him is that he's got a nose for the ball. Just seems like one of those guys that the ball seems to find wherever he is on the court. I don't think you can teach that.

 

1 hour ago, Chad said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Metu isn't a part of the Spurs organization in any capacity in the near future unless he improves drastically. Metu has potential, but has a penchant for slipping up on the court and Pop has no patience for those types of players see Livio Jean Charles. Don't be surprised if the Spurs grab his replacement with one of their first rounders.

I'm not sure where you get that about Metu from the grand sum of the 145 minutes he played all of last year. I haven't heard anything about him from my guy down there either way, but the only reason I could see them dumping him is if he has a bad attitude or work ethic. He's a project clearly, and they've always taken a long term approach with these types of players. 

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Where does the $9MM exception come from? 

If I understand it correctly, signing Gay puts them over the cap but below the tax. So it's the regular mid level exception. I think it's ~$9.4 million.

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LTtxfan

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1 hour ago, Llogg said:

In light of the Memphis-Utah trade, what are the thoughts on SA trying to make a run at Rubio somehow? Can they waive someone like Belinelli and use the MLE to get into that 12-15M range that Rubio is probably going to command?

Spurs don't need another guard....

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Patrick Bateman

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4 hours ago, Llogg said:

In light of the Memphis-Utah trade, what are the thoughts on SA trying to make a run at Rubio somehow? Can they waive someone like Belinelli and use the MLE to get into that 12-15M range that Rubio is probably going to command?

Why would we want another smallish PG/combo guard who can't shoot?  Jae Crowder would be more of a need.  Wing defender who's rugged enough to play some stretch 4 in a pinch (short though) and on an expiring contract.  If he could shoot the 3 like 2 or 3 years ago, he'd be real valuable as a rotational guy.  That said, I don't see who we would send out for him.

 

 

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angelfacedmongoloid

angelfacedmongoloid 80

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On 6/18/2019 at 3:10 PM, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Even though I'm as guilty as everybody else, I'm really trying to turn the page on the nephew and would be particularly appreciate if we could keep this thread clear of his bitchass going forward. This whole franchise and fanbase needs to move forward, which brings us to the the draft on Thursday.

I think the Spurs are going to get an impact player at 19. The field levels off after pick #3, so I think they have a good shot at finding a keeper. The thing you can never underestimate is the incompetence of the 18 teams picking in front of the Spurs. Zion is a no brainer as are the next two picks. So that leaves 15 picks for GMs to screw up before the Spurs go.

So let's break it down:


4. Pelicans - they are looking to move this pick allegedly. David Griffin mainly acted as Lebron's and Rich Paul's proxy in Cleveland (sure, let's give JR Smith 4 yrs/$57 million, great idea!).  IIRC, Griffin has never made a first round pick of his own. Nobody has any idea if he can competently identify young talent. If he's stuck with the pick, odds are he screws it up and nobody will care or notice because he lucked out in the lottery and will have draft picks coming out his ass from the Lakers over the next few years.

5. Cleveland - Koby Altman grew up in the Cavs highly dysfunctional organization. Again, zero history with making a first round pick. Odds are he screws it up.

6. Phoenix - James Jones is their GM du jour and a first timer at that. They are among the worst run teams in the league. Would be a stunner if they didn't botch the pick.

7. Chicago - Gar Forman has been there since 2009. He did draft Jimmy Butler at 30 but he also has guys like Tony Snell(#20), James Johnson(#16), Marquis Teague (#29), Doug McDermott -- he traded Nurkic and Gary Harris to get him (ouch), Bobby Portis, Denzell Valentine (#14), Lauri Markkanen via trade that included Jimmy Butler, Wendell Carter Jr and Chandler Hutchison on his resume. That isn't a great track record. The odds of him screwing this up are much greater than the odds of him not.

8. Atlanta - Travis Schlenk seems fairly competent. In only two drafts he has selected Trae Young and John Collins. Did they screw up by not taking Doncic? Probably, but Young is far from a bust and he probably makes a decent pick here because the guys in front of him will cull the herd for him.

9. Washington - they don't even have a GM right now. Almost certain that they screw the pooch with this pick.

10. Atlanta - see pick #8. I doubt they make two good selections in a row but figure they hit 50% between the both of them.

11. Minnesota - LOL. Will definitely screw up the pick. If they are lucky they will have to dump this with Wiggins so they don't have a chance to shit themselves again on draft night.

12. Charlotte - MJ. It is a given that they will screw up the pick.

13. Miami - they really haven't drafted well. Everybody thought Justice Winslow was a steal but hasn't panned out. Riley has built everything there (and subsequently run it into the ground) via trade and free agency. I think Wade was the last time they made an impact draft pick. They will probably screw it up.

14. Boston - Ainge has always done a pretty good job in the middle to late first round. He's had a lot of bullets, though and they are under pressure to do something. This seems like a place for him to swing for the fences and crap out instead of making the smart pick. I say they are due for a bust.

15. Detroit - Ed Stefanski made three nondescript non-impactful first round picks when he was with the Nets in the mid-2000s. He did draft Jrue Holiday when he was with the 76ers but also took Evan Turner #2 overall (yikes!) I would bank on him screwing this pick up.

16. Orlando - John Hammond has a pretty good track record in the draft from when he was with Milwaukee (Greek Freak, et al). He probably gets this one right, especially with all the morons picking in front of him.

17. Brooklyn - Sean Marks hasn't had much to work with since his predecessor traded away all their picks, but he did select Jarett Allen at 22. He's a coin filp at best to get this right.

18. Indiana - Kevin Pritchard has been there for three years. He selected TJ Leaf (#18) and Aaron Holiday (#23). Before that, at Portland he took Greg Oden over Kevin Durant (ouch - in any other industry that would be career suicide), Brandon Rush (#13), and Victor Claver (#22). He did draft one Patrick Mills at #55, though. He will almost for sure screw this up.

So there you have it. The first three picks are a given. Say one of the Atlanta picks is good, Orlando gets it right and maybe Brooklyn too. That puts the Spurs in actuality picking at #7. I think they find a decent player there.

So I don't really have the confidence that we are getting the defacto 7th pick by everyone else fucking up, not that you're wrong, but I do think some of the teams that usually blow it could get lucky and make a pick that works out.

Here's How I see it

5. Cleveland- They got their PG last in Collin Sexton, best players available here  will probably be one of the wing prospects that we don't have a chance of getting in on anyway

6. Phoenix- It's pretty well known that they a PG, hopefully they draft that way leaving another more wings and post players on the board for us

7. Chicago- Probably draft a PG here as well considering Lavine was running point for them last year (I think). Also you have to consider that the only players that were reportedly not available to trade are Markannen and Carter

8&10. Atlanta- Probably drafting a wing or big that we would want, which sucks. There's been lots of talk about them shopping these picks but who knows how all of that will work out. Point here is, they will probably take a player or 2 that we want off the board

9. Washington-I assume they take the best player available that plays a different position than Beal. Not sure when Wall comes back but I don't think they'll go PG here either. So a big or wing. Not sure if they take someone we want here, but I do think they fuck it up.

11. Minnesota- All the mocks have a big to go next to KAT here, or a wing. They suck at drafting so I'm not too worried about who they pick

12. Charlotte- I don't know. Another team that I agree will make a shitty pick. Hopefully they go for a guard and that gets us another solid forward or big pushed down for us to grab

13. Miami- Another position I don't know exactly what to expect, but they probably won't draft a center because they have Whiteside. They probably draft the best player available. Their roster is ass and everyone looks replaceable

14. Boston- Ainge does draft well, they just lost Horford and are looking to trade Baynes so drafting a Center here would make sense. Every mock I look at has them taking a different position. I expect them to draft outside of Tatum and Brown's positions here. It will be interesting to see what they do here

15. Detroit- They probably go with a guard here as they have Griffin and Drummond manning the frontcourt. If a solid PG is available here I would think that's who they draft

16. Orlando- Needs guards. They have Gordon-Isaac-Bamba which is a nice young frontcourt

17. Brooklyn- Most mocks have them taking either SF or PF in this spot, Marks seems pretty good so I wouldn't be surprised if someone we want is taken in this spot

18. Indiana- PG or SG is a need. With Oladipo's injury, they may look for a temporary replacement and long term depth, their starting PG is Darren Collison and Cory Joseph backs him up so this probably depends on availability and the Pacers draft board. Bogdonavic(if he re-signs), Sabonis, Turner is a solid frontcourt so I don't see them going PF or C here

Seems like there's lots of trade talks and I assume that we won't be major players as usual. Atlanta has a fuckton of picks so I'd imagine they are involved in some of those trades. Some teams may just draft what they view as the best available player regardless of what they have on their rosters.

Some players I'd like to see us draft with our 1st round picks assuming we don't trade them- PJ Washington, Thybulle, Hachimura, Goga Bitadze, Dylan Windler, Doumbouya, Chuma Okeke, Isaiah Roby. I'd rather we avoid Bol if he's available. Maybe we'll luck out again and a solid player or 2 will fall to us like Murray a few years ago. I'm confident we can put some of these guys in a position to succeed, which most other franchises aren't able to do. Some picks just don't work out because the organizations drafting these guys set them up to fail and it's nice to not  be a pile of shit like Charlotte, New York, Minnesota, Phoenix, etc

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housious

housious 468

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Glad we are re-signing Rudy. With all of the other shit going on, he's been good. 

I'm cautiously optimistic about the combo of Murray, White, Derozan, Gay, and Aldridge. It's not a championship team by any stretch of the imagination, but I think their potential could be a 3-5 seed in the west. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43537

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17 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Why would we want another smallish PG/combo guard who can't shoot?  Jae Crowder would be more of a need.  Wing defender who's rugged enough to play some stretch 4 in a pinch (short though) and on an expiring contract.  If he could shoot the 3 like 2 or 3 years ago, he'd be real valuable as a rotational guy.  That said, I don't see who we would send out for him.

 

 

Yuck. I'd rather make a run at neither. Crowder is somehow basically a poor man's Rudy at this point in his career. 

Bojan Bogdonavic, on the other hand... 

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angelfacedmongoloid

angelfacedmongoloid 80

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3 minutes ago, Llogg said:

Why down on Bol?

For me its the fact that he just missed most of the college season from the same type of fracture that plagued Yao Ming and Embiid his first few years. Other players seem to have overcome it but he's mostly an unknown to me. Not a huge fan of 7 footers with foot problems early in their careers

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SilasCoade

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2 minutes ago, angelfacedmongoloid said:

For me its the fact that he just missed most of the college season from the same type of fracture that plagued Yao Ming and Embiid his first few years. Other players seem to have overcome it but he's mostly an unknown to me. Not a huge fan of 7 footers with foot problems early in their careers

Valid, but as a late first round pick his upside is going to be higher than just about any other player available. As the Spurs still have some luxury of not needing impact play from their rookies, they would be the ideal team to let him not rush back from injury.

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angelfacedmongoloid

angelfacedmongoloid 80

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2 minutes ago, Llogg said:

Valid, but as a late first round pick his upside is going to be higher than just about any other player available. As the Spurs still have some luxury of not needing impact play from their rookies, they would be the ideal team to let him not rush back from injury.

Agreed. I wouldn't hate it with the 29 pick but would be surprised if he lasts that long.

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angelfacedmongoloid

angelfacedmongoloid 80

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I don't think we ever had a workout for Bol. And it appears we've had workouts for these other centers: Bruno Fernando, Goga Bitadze, Nic Claxton, Neemias Queta, EJ Montgomery, Luka Samanic, Marques Bolden, Josh Sharma and a bunch of other forwards that could possibly play the same postion. I'm pretty sure we never worked out Derrick White or Murray either the few years so the workouts don't mean much

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3932

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2 hours ago, ztejas said:

Yuck. I'd rather make a run at neither. Crowder is somehow basically a poor man's Rudy at this point in his career. 

Bojan Bogdonavic, on the other hand... 

And what would be the difference in cost and length of contract?    I also never said I wanted Crowder, simply he was more of a need than a silly idea of adding Rubio.

 

2 hours ago, angelfacedmongoloid said:

I don't think we ever had a workout for Bol. And it appears we've had workouts for these other centers: Bruno Fernando, Goga Bitadze, Nic Claxton, Neemias Queta, EJ Montgomery, Luka Samanic, Marques Bolden, Josh Sharma and a bunch of other forwards that could possibly play the same postion. I'm pretty sure we never worked out Derrick White or Murray either the few years so the workouts don't mean much

Wasn't the story that we never thought Murray would be available at our spot so we never worked him out?

 

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angelfacedmongoloid

angelfacedmongoloid 80

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34 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Wasn't the story that we never thought Murray would be available at our spot so we never worked him out?

 

I think that was case. I don't really remember what his draft position looked like at the time but if you go back and look at the 2016 mock drafts he was usually slotted in the 12-25 range. I think the same thing happened with Lonnie Walker-along the knee issue if I'm remembering correctly.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3932

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1 minute ago, Radical Larry said:

He lives on the second floor.

Upstairs from me.... I think I've seen him before.

From SI:

Quote

According to league sources, the Spurs are widely thought to have a serious interest in Samanic, but more likely for this spot, or if they were to come up in the 20s, than at No. 19. Many teams think this is his floor. His mixture of skill level and size at a young age have helped set him apart from the pack, the hope being that he develops into a useful stretch big who can play a variety of roles, and even playmake a little bit on the perimeter. There’s some optimism required with him, and some mixture of opinion, but San Antonio seem to be believers.

Samanic has to keep getting stronger to handle the physicality of the NBA, and he probably needs a year to get up to speed, but his talent level is certainly evident. I’m told he intends to come over and be a roster player next season, as opposed to being stashed in Europe for another year. He would fit the Spurs to a T.

Reportedly we fell in love with the guy.

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ztejas

ztejas 43537

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Is it just me or does the fact that the Spurs are reported to be interested in a guy immediately increase his draft stock? 

So, yeah, maybe 19 is early, but he probably doesn't fall to 29 if word gets out that "San Antonio really likes this guy in the 1st"

Anyways, welcome Samanic! Hope he can contribute some this season. 

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