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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

clapclapclap

By clapclapclap
in Daily Texan

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Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

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  • 4 weeks later...
phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Like clockwork.  1st storms of the Atlantic season are damn near always short-spinups in the Gulf.  This year is right in line.

Remember that longer-track (and usually more dangerous) storms usually don't get going until mid-late July.  Of course this season forecast to be quieter (due to Niño).

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
12 hours ago, TexArcher said:
30% of a becoming a tropical depression.  Time for my mother in far north Houston to freak out.  Here we go.

Make sure to check in with us after you check in on facebook

And don't forget your milk and eggs.

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Rip76

Rip76 4947

Posted
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From Jeff Linder this morning.

 

Tropical cyclone likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

 

Threat has increased westward overnight along the LA and TX coasts.

 

Discussion: 

Mid level (850mb) disturbance over GA is continuing to move SSE/S this morning and will be moving into N FL and eventually the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Global models are now in good agreement that this feature will work its wat from the 850mb level to the surface resulting in the formation of a tropical depression over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify with a large 200mb high pressure ridge over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. 

 

Track: 

While there was much spread and disagreement yesterday, starting yesterday afternoon and continuing overnight, that spread has decreased into a solution where any Gulf system would tend to track more westward. The GFS has abandoned the idea of the system remaining close to the FL coast and is now in fair agreement with the ECMWF of a slow westward track across the Gulf of Mexico. Most models now indicate a threat westward along the US Gulf coast toward TX and LA. As mentioned yesterday, both the westward and eastward track solution were viable, and it appears we are starting to see a trend toward the westward solution being the more favored. This more westward solution is likely due to a more WSW movement of the system in the Gulf of Mexico and the formation and building of a mid level high pressure ridge over the southern US mid to late week which would prevent any trough near the Great Lakes from pulling the system northward.

 

Intensity: 

While there is better agreement on the track this morning there remains a lot of spread on the intensity with the ECWMF model continuing to be the strongest. Looking at the upper air and surface features for a moment suggest that any storm in the Gulf will likely intensify. Upper level winds are forecast to be light with the surface feature located under a 200mb anticyclone which will help vent the surface low and provide good upper level outflow. Additionally, the system would appear to move over the warm Gulf waters with temperatures in the 84-86 degree range and per latest oceanic heat content there is plenty of heat content for development. Models also show the system slowing its westward movement allowing a longer time over those warm Gulf waters. A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question. 

 

Impacts: 

For now will not make any changes to the ongoing forecast for late this week/weekend. If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the NW Gulf…significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours. 

 

Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Check hurricane preparation kits and plans and be ready to enact those plans this week. Monitor weather forecast closely.   

 

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Posted (edited)

So in the last 100 years the only hurricanes to hit Texas in July were Cat 1's: 

7/15/03 Claudette - Port O'Conner

7/23/15 Dolly - S. Padre Island

7/24/59 Debra - Freeport

7/27/43 "The 1943 Surprise Hurricane" - Bolivar Peninsula/Baytown   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_Surprise_Hurricane

BUT...

7/24-7/26/79 Trop Storm Claudette - Port Arthur, stalled and dumped 42 inches on Alvin in 24 hours, at the time the one-day record.

And if you go back further in time...

7/21/1909 unnamed - Freeport:  a Cat 3 hurricane with a 10-ft storm surge

Edited by clapclapclap
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Rip76

Rip76 4947

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, lonestar3 said:

We've got a business fishing trip scheduled for Thurs/Fri at Port O'Connor. Would we be ahead of the storm or should I go ahead and brace myself for a non-short work week?

About 144 hours out as of right now.  Approx 6 days.

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