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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

clapclapclap

By clapclapclap
in Daily Texan

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Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Say PHD, what’s the forecast for South Padre Island next week (starting Sunday)?

I just got back in town from Washington DC. Let me play with myself for a while before I begin to tackle that.

Edit:   Sunday chance of afternoon t'storms.
Then all week, hot.  Dry.  Dry.  Hot.  Hot/Dry.  Dry/Hot. 

It's South Padre in August.

Edited by phdhorn
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Rip76

Rip76 4928

Posted
Posted

Ha.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

90L

Special TWO issued

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a low pressure area has formed just off the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization. However, the system is likely to move inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before significant development can occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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boknowstecmo

boknowstecmo 216

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Rip76 said:

Ha.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

90L

Special TWO issued

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a low pressure area has formed just off the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization. However, the system is likely to move inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before significant development can occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Well, it tried. 

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Posted (edited)

We're getting a better picture of Dorian, and it's grayer.  Looks like it will miss the mountains of the Dominican Republic, hit Florida as a hurricane, and has a good chance of entering the Gulf.  A Texas strike is possible.

Edited by clapclapclap
That joke never gets old
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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025213_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

That image may adjust for each update, but right now the southern half of the cone puts it into the Gulf.  With the way the cone moves this far out it is possible Dorian could be moving westward or even southwestward after Florida.  Lots of historical examples of that, like Andrew and Katrina.  I'm not predicting a Texas hit, but way too early to rule it out.

Edit:  Looks like the 00Z UKMET has it turning from westward to southwestward about 170 miles east of Stuart, FL.

Edited by clapclapclap
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Iowa Horn

Iowa Horn 55

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1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

Dorian you better turn north! I just got posted up on the panhandle in 30A and it would bummer to cut this vacation short. It would also be a bummer to fly home and get hit by this thing if it keeps on going west.

A bigger bummer is if it gets in the Gulf and affects anywhere from Baton Rouge westward on Sept 6th or 7th

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Loco

Loco 3752

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sorry for being selfish here...  just want this thing to slide north.  Right now I am sitting on the edge of the cone of death... great that this is coming in during King Tides.  If it comes into Dade/Broward on a high tide, it's gonna really suck.

Edited by Loco
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Brew

Brew 3049

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ogie Ogilthorpe said:

Furk, on the west coast but that has it going right at me.

Right there with you. Our house is scheduled for impact windows and doors starting the first of the week and impact siding to follow. May be a day late and a dollar short. Luckily we did get all the trees trimmed and the dead stuff cleaned up this week.

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Loco

Loco 3752

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Euro and GFS keep shifting south and west, Euro more aggressively.  

 

That model run would be devastating.  N. Dade/S. Broward is very low lying and extremely densely developed and I bet it would pop out the back side little worse for wear.  The everglades would pump that thing up.  /nohanz&franz

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:

I’ll be watching this thread closely over the next 24 hours. Supposed to fly to Orlando Friday morning to take the kids to Disney World Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

The 5pm NHC track has a new attraction at Disney World

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