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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

Posted
Posted

Dayum....14 years ago today Katina made landfall in La. / Miss.    

Who can forget this NWS message.  

WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
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Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

So far, pretty textbook... has done what is almost carbon copy of most long-track Aug/Sept storms.  Not much to say.

The only things to add here are:  1) models > 72 hrs. out are fairly useless, but they have to put something.  Look at path up to about 48 hours max, and even that's sketchy.  It's not that "a hurricane turned" it's that nothing could accurately predict its path over 2 days out... and probably will never (I have an article on that I'll post after all this... we're getting to the apparent max ability to predict these things' tracks now.. intensity is another story, still improving).

2) Where it might go is almost always based on "what's ahead", as in the location of systems (troughs, cyclones, ridges, etc.) and how they'll behave.  Right now as completely typical for the U.S. in August, a big high is dominating the area from the SE U.S. off into the Atlantic:

aug29surface.jpg.6396dbdece9357d9d92d0e7a7e5b0854.jpg

Hurricanes tend to either be bumped back out to the ocean by highs, or drawn in by lows (opposites don't attract in this case, similarities do).  There's that big  cool front, although weak, dominating the SE U.S.  That oughta provide enough resistance (unless it washes out) to push Dorian farther south... however if it turns out to be stronger, it could push it N-NE away from land (latest models seem to be hinting at that).  Anyway if that doesn't happen, then it'll slide under the high's southern section into S. or C. Florida.  Then it would be drawn up to that stationery front along the E. Gulf Coast and then natural friction, Coriolis and other stuff will turn it N/NE up the Atlantic seaboard.

The chances of it getting far west into the Gulf are pretty slim.

Guess the thing to hope for is that the front pushes it up and out, but I don't think at this point it's strong enough.  If this were a month later and a stronger September front was there, no problemo.  In this case though, it's probably going to get drawn by that little low trough (dotted lines), then we'll see.  Doesn't look at this point though like it'll miss land.   

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mchookem said:

um...is that NWS message re: Katrina real? i've never seen it, but it seems rather hyperbolic. don't laugh at me...

It’s 100% real. 

No CR, but the president had called every governor of surrounding states, as well as LA to be ready for the emergency, but the governor refused federal and outside aide for 3 days.   Stupid people played  stupid games 

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Dewey

Dewey 3286

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Posted

Hurts to see the updates, getting stronger, slow turn and now, depending on which model,  going north, not along the Fla coast, but right through the middle of the state. Still hoping for a best case scenario in this shit sandwich. Drop a pin out in the Atlantic and send Dorian that way. 

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texasdago

texasdago 7570

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We have family in Florida... very frustrating to see this.  Trying to convince them to hop in a car and drive over here.  Don't wish this stuff on anyone, speaking from personal experience.  Don't want it in Texas but would that they could all be fish storms.  

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Buffsoldier

Buffsoldier 1895

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, texasdago said:

We have family in Florida... very frustrating to see this.  Trying to convince them to hop in a car and drive over here.  Don't wish this stuff on anyone, speaking from personal experience.  Don't want it in Texas but would that they could all be fish storms.  

Fish storms?
the 4th awakens sharknado 4 GIF by SYFY

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BottleRocket said:

I’m in Ocala now driving around town with a buddy looking for propane and a generator. Was going to fly back to Austin on Monday but moved it up to Sunday so we don’t get stuck here.

For a generator find a pawn shop.  I'm sure all of the chain home improvement stores are sold out already.  Pawn shops always have generators.  That's what I did before Harvey.

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CleverNickname

CleverNickname 1308

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:

We were supposed to fly to Orlando this morning and back on Tuesday for Disney World and the opening of Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge at Hollywood Studios. We had to cancel. Orlando airport is scheduled to shut down on Monday at 2am. 

Dude, you saved Central Florida! Now it will recurve out. You've prevented billions of dollars of damage. 

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austingirl

austingirl 2191

Posted
Posted
On 8/29/2019 at 8:02 PM, mchookem said:

um...is that NWS message re: Katrina real? i've never seen it, but it seems rather hyperbolic. don't laugh at me...

Yes. I remember reading it then and getting goosebumps. Still does it to me. This is a good article about it, written 10 years later.

On 8/29/2019 at 9:28 PM, Trey3216 said:

It’s 100% real. 

No CR, but the president had called every governor of surrounding states, as well as LA to be ready for the emergency, but the governor refused federal and outside aide for 3 days.   Stupid people played  stupid games 

Read The Great Deluge if you're interested in learning just how fucked up things were. It opens with a discussion of how the animal shelters in NO had a better hurricane preparedness plan than did the local government. But that is a topic for another thread.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

Posted
Posted
We were supposed to fly to Orlando this morning and back on Tuesday for Disney World and the opening of Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge at Hollywood Studios. We had to cancel. Orlando airport is scheduled to shut down on Monday at 2am. 
Pansy. Hurricane ride wouldve been better than anything at universal.. plus itd be free
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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28776

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Hate said:

The local governments in NO had no plan other than to blame George Bush once the shit hit the fan /full cr

You mean this George Bush, the guy who waited a few days before cutting his vacation short for a flyover photo op?

150828reportkatrina-editorial.katrina.jp

KatrinaNewOrleansFlooded_edit2.jpg

You're talking about George "Heckuva job, Brownie" Bush? The guy who sent the Louisiana National Guard to fight in Iraq so they weren't there to help at home after Katrina?

That guy? 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

You mean this George Bush, the guy who waited a few days before cutting his vacation short for a flyover photo op?

150828reportkatrina-editorial.katrina.jp

KatrinaNewOrleansFlooded_edit2.jpg

You're talking about George "Heckuva job, Brownie" Bush? The guy who sent the Louisiana National Guard to fight in Iraq so they weren't there to help at home after Katrina?

That guy? 

You mean, George Bush, the guy that had Texas and Arkansas reserves as well as federal entities parked on the border of LA 3 days before the storm hit but the dips hit governor waited until the levees broke to declare a state of emergency and allow federal and outside help?  

 

You our mean George Bush who organized an effort for every school district in east TX and northern LA send every extra school bus they had to NOLA days before the hurricane to begin evacuating people, yet the dips hit governor of LA and Ray Nagin refuses the help????   That same GWB?

 

get fucked  

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