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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

clapclapclap

By clapclapclap
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Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28794

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You mean, George Bush, the guy that had Texas and Arkansas reserves as well as federal entities parked on the border of LA 3 days before the storm hit but the dips hit governor waited until the levees broke to declare a state of emergency and allow federal and outside help?  

 

You our mean George Bush who organized an effort for every school district in east TX and northern LA send every extra school bus they had to NOLA days before the hurricane to begin evacuating people, yet the dips hit governor of LA and Ray Nagin refuses the help????   That same GWB?

 

get fucked  

Ray Nagin declared a state of emergency two days before the hurricane hit. I'm not sure how much else in your post is wrong. It's not like any Louisiana politician of either party has exactly distinguished themselves by their competence in recent memory. But the incompetence in the lead up to and aftermath of Katrina went all the way to the top. Michael Brown admitted they had no plan for that scale of disaster. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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In this post above I talked about the influence of the continental weather, and especially the highs, on hurricane tracks when they get close to the U.S.  Looks like that's exactly what's happening here.  That big ol' high I mentioned above is pushing Dorian to a halt, and looks like now with most of the models that it's going to drive it north.  They're expecting a pretty sharp turn by Monday as this occurs.  However, hurricanes have mass and weight and they just don't stop on a dime.  It'll take a little slowing down to do so, but it does look like the high will put up a roadblock for Florida.  But... even 30 miles' difference can mean the difference between a direct coastal hit and nothing much (skirting north offshore).  But... the models are trending that way.

And, once again, don't be a dumbass and say "the models were wrong, it's turning" or something.  As I said above, models > 72 hours out are almost worthless, and there won't be much improvement in the future as to track accuracy beyond that.  They are more made for < 72 hours, more like 48 hours and in, so take model tracks with a grain of salt.  The models didn't do anything "wrong", they're trying every few hours to adjust and become more accurate. 

(one little tidbit - the Euro model still rules; the American model is doing better but still has a ways to go; the UK model seems to be tailing off recently).

Anyway, this thing could turn again and go into Florida.  No bet is on with these.  However things are looking up for Florida.

The bad news is that Dorian is probably going to strengthen, expand, and get really bad - and on the current track make a direct hit for N. Ga. or S. S.Carolina.  But it too could be nudged off of the coast.

tl;dr:  Dorian just might skirt FL or be offshore enough to limit the damage, but it will get stronger, and is likely to hit Georgia or South Carolina (at this point, which could change) and it won't be pretty.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Just now, Chet Steadman said:

So the latest models show Dorian heading approx. 400 miles outside yesterday’s cone?

How does that happen in today’s meteorology?

When this dies down, I'll post a very good article (which I alluded to a few posts above) on 1) how the models are about at their max for algorhythmic accuracy (i.e. won't get much better in predicting future tracks than now), and as I just posted above, should be regarded > 72 hours out as coin flips.  Then why put them up like that if they're worthless or almost?  Good question, I guess the bitching and moaning if nothing were put up would be > than the bitching and moaning if models turn out to be "wrong."
 
The thing that can be improved in models, though, is likely storm intensity and size.  

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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23 hours ago, phdhorn said:

When this dies down, I'll post a very good article (which I alluded to a few posts above) on 1) how the models are about at their max for algorhythmic accuracy (i.e. won't get much better in predicting future tracks than now), and as I just posted above, should be regarded > 72 hours out as coin flips.  Then why put them up like that if they're worthless or almost?  Good question, I guess the bitching and moaning if nothing were put up would be > than the bitching and moaning if models turn out to be "wrong."
 
The thing that can be improved in models, though, is likely storm intensity and size.  

Weather is so complex, I am surprised that weather scientists can get as accurate as they can. The development of tornado and severe storm prediction and observations that have occurred during my lifetime is amazing.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105190

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Weather is so complex, I am surprised that weather scientists can get as accurate as they can. The development of tornado and severe storm prediction and observations that have occurred during my lifetime is amazing.

I remember hurricane tracking charts printed on our grocery bags. You’d cut it out, put it on the fridge, and track the storm with magnets.
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Reagan1k

Reagan1k 3024

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I remember hurricane tracking charts printed on our grocery bags. You’d cut it out, put it on the fridge, and track the storm with magnets.

We used to print big laminated ones with our company logo and product lines around the borders:  Gave them to distributors instead of calendars.  Every sales office would have them hanging on the wall and people used wipeable markers to track storms.  

 

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Loco

Loco 3753

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Gotta tell ya, sitting here in S Florida with that monster in the Bahamas feels fucking weird.  No shutters up, no gas lines this am, buddy in the keys wants me to come down and go fishing and it's a really nice day (always is right before the storm)

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Loco

Loco 3753

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I've dodged a few storms and had a glorious weekend in the keys....  uh not this time.

 

CSB:  Keys issued a VOLUNTARY evacuation statement for Visitors a few days ago...  "If you are visiting the Keys and you can leave, please do..."  yesterday they reversed that and asked people to come back if they can.  Keys are still reeling from the last storm that blasted them and their ONLY industries are Tourism and Alcoholism.  /CSB

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Iceman

Iceman 2724

Posted
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On 8/31/2019 at 8:22 AM, Chet Steadman said:

So the latest models show Dorian heading approx. 400 miles outside yesterday’s cone?

How does that happen in today’s meteorology?

Life is always predictable, no?

 

It's like the wife telling me there's no chance of showers because the TV said so.  yeah, well, looking out on the back porch, I see fucking rain.

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Reagan1k

Reagan1k 3024

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I remember hurricane tracking charts printed on our grocery bags. You’d cut it out, put it on the fridge, and track the storm with magnets.

We used to print big laminated ones with our company logo and product lines around the borders:  Gave them to distributors instead of calendars.  Every sales office would have them hanging on the wall and people used wipeable markers to track storms.  

 

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14346

Posted
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Gotta tell ya, sitting here in S Florida with that monster in the Bahamas feels fucking weird.  No shutters up, no gas lines this am, buddy in the keys wants me to come down and go fishing and it's a really nice day (always is right before the storm)

Reminds me of Andrew. Went out to play golf on Key Biscayne and came home to find out we were under the gun.

The next 6 weeks were less than enjoyable.
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Loco

Loco 3753

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1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:


Reminds me of Andrew. Went out to play golf on Key Biscayne and came home to find out we were under the gun.

The next 6 weeks were less than enjoyable.

I was in Gainesville during Andrew..   Nice day/weekend (no real impact at all)  Then a few of my friends got called up to the National Guard.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6559

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2 minutes ago, Loco said:

I was in Gainesville during Andrew..   Nice day/weekend (no real impact at all)  Then a few of my friends got called up to the National Guard.

I decided to go home from Austin before school started for a long weekend and my shit luck it was when Andrew hit.  We had to evacuate as my family’s house was on the Dade/Broward County line on the inter coastal.  Andrew was supposed to come ashore there but veered south to Homestead at the last minute and devastated that area vs Hallandale and Hollywood FL.  Even where we went to ride the storm out inland part of Hollywood the winds were brutal.

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Loco

Loco 3753

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I decided to go home from Austin before school started for a long weekend and my shit luck it was when Andrew hit.  We had to evacuate as my family’s house was on the Dade/Broward County line on the inter coastal.  Andrew was supposed to come ashore there but veered south to Homestead at the last minute and devastated that area vs Hallandale and Hollywood FL.  Even where we went to ride the storm out inland part of Hollywood the winds were brutal.

A guy who I worked with was in Homestead and rode it out during Andrew.  I asked him about the storm...  and he starts talking about this movie he has...  after a full critique of the movie he says, "the reason I have that movie is because I rented it from Blockbuster before the storm. And after the storm, there was no more Blockbuster."  He spent 6-7hrs under a mattress watching the storm through what used to be his ceiling/roof.  

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6559

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Loco said:

A guy who I worked with was in Homestead and rode it out during Andrew.  I asked him about the storm...  and he starts talking about this movie he has...  after a full critique of the movie he says, "the reason I have that movie is because I rented it from Blockbuster before the storm. And after the storm, there was no more Blockbuster."  He spent 6-7hrs under a mattress watching the storm through what used to be his ceiling/roof.  

All I can say is the sound of the winds is nothing I have ever heard.  It’s a frightening sound.  

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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A guy who I worked with was in Homestead and rode it out during Andrew.  I asked him about the storm...  and he starts talking about this movie he has...  after a full critique of the movie he says, "the reason I have that movie is because I rented it from Blockbuster before the storm. And after the storm, there was no more Blockbuster."  He spent 6-7hrs under a mattress watching the storm through what used to be his ceiling/roof.  
And every road out/in+convenience store is washed away. Riding out a hurricane has to be the dumbest decision ever
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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14346

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And every road out/in+convenience store is washed away. Riding out a hurricane has to be the dumbest decision ever

Not dumb necessarily, and for many there really isn’t a good option among several bad ones.

 

It beats riding out the storm on a packed interstate because you have to drive 500 miles to get out of risk area.

 

There is a difference between riding out a storm on the ground floor in a storm surge zone and being in a reinforced building safely away from surge and flooding.

 

The storm was terrible but it was the aftermath that really sucked. We didn’t get power back until October.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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It just made landfall at Elbow Cay of the Abaco Islands (GoogleMaps shows it a little bit further south over Tilloo Cay), 185 mph max sustained winds, gusts to 220 mph, 18-23' storm surge.

2 storm chasers are located about 7 miles north of the center. 

Jim Edds at the Hope Town Inn and Marina:

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms

Josh Morgerman in Marsh Harbour:

https://twitter.com/iCyclone

It's a small storm so the worst winds are in a relatively tight core.

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