2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[Rip76 4925]

93L

Edited September 2, 2019 by Rip76

[Dewey 3286]

Moving at 1mph, winds at 165, thing is eating the Bahamas up. 

 

[Dewey 3286]

4 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

93L

Rain for south Texas and Mexico

[Rip76 4925]

Yup.

[phdhorn 6224]

As for Dorian, the high in the Western Atlantic that's been steering Dorian mostly west around it has collapsed this morning.  That's why Dorian has stopped, and if anything I've seen the eye wobble a bit NW even N.  Probably the turn... although there is nothing at this moment "steering" hurricanes, if no guiding force is acting on its course, the hurricane itself will tend to steer a bit NW/N as the actual spinning of the storm provides friction to propel it the opposite direction of its circulation, which usually wants to go northward.  However the water provides very little friction (land a lot more), but maybe enough to push it... even the small patches of land it's spinning over give it enough resistance to at least stop it, and that's what I think's happened and why it's slowed.

The next feature that's going to act on it is a small low pressure trough (I've circled it in red, off the NC/SC/GA coast - I've ciricled it in red here):



Dorian will start moving N/NE toward this trough today, although slowly.  Timing is critical... if those highs NW of the trough can push it a bit SE Dorian might steer a bit more off coast.  If those highs go slow or weaken, Dorian might stick near or (worse of course) past the coast inland.   There are lots of things mixing together to push/pull this thing, and no one can say exactly how they'll shake out.

[phdhorn 6224]

9 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

93L

Yeah, this one's not going to do much here.  It's going to track west and make landfall as a depression or TS in central Mexico.  Very little chance of this doing anything around us.

[6th Street 6392]

Is there going to be anything left of the Bahamas after this? The storm is basically stalled out there

[Hate 20108]

I guess the Atlantic received the memo that it's the peak of the hurricane season.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Is there going to be anything left of the Bahamas after this? The storm is basically stalled out there

Unless it's a concrete structure...I'm gonna guess no. Just hope the people have good structural safety and the death total is low

[phdhorn 6224]

6 minutes ago, Hate said:

I guess the Atlantic received the memo that it's the peak of the hurricane season.

2 (as posted above) won't get too strong, and will dive well south of Texas, might affect S. Texas with some rain.  Not a worrier.
3 is kinda high in the Atlantic, they almost always turn N/E there, and that one's forecast to.
1 is worth watching, fur shore...

Edited September 2, 2019 by phdhorn

[Bevo 13576]

24 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

2 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Is there going to be anything left of the Bahamas after this? The storm is basically stalled out there

 

Unless it's a concrete structure...I'm gonna guess no. Just hope the people have good structural safety and the death total is low

So you are saying no more Fyre Fest housing?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So you are saying no more Fyre Fest housing?

Probably better post Dorian than pre Fyre fest for housing after the storm passes

[Armybrat 40832]

3 hours ago, Jhawk said:

I’ve been to Freeport. Place looks like it’s been hit by many hurricanes. Total shithole except for a few beaches. 

15 years ago we stayed at a nice resort on Our Lacaya Beach for our son’s wedding. The area was still trying to recover from hurricane damage that occurred a year or two before.

[Jhawk 1075]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

2 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Is there going to be anything left of the Bahamas after this? The storm is basically stalled out there

 

Unless it's a concrete structure...I'm gonna guess no. Just hope the people have good structural safety and the death total is low

Referring back to my trip to Freeport, lot of concrete structures. The problem is everything in and around them gets destroyed and they get abandoned. Then you just have an abandoned spray painted shithole concrete structure that grass and trees are wildly growing in and around. Outside of the beach I was at for a day the place was seriously miserable looking. 

[Welch 635]

5 hours ago, phdhorn said:

The first models had Harvey staying way south and making landfall in Central America.  In fact, up to 72 hours before it even made landfall in Texas, almost no one was giving it much thought... it was supposed to be a weak storm that flamed out mildly somewhere around Belize/Costa Rica.

So those early models were, shall we say, a tad off.

As for the Bahamas, it's quite possible that this storm will permanently alter the shape of a few of those islands enough to force map updates.

Sure, but I don't think that's analogous to the situation we're in now, with a fully developed storm.

I'm thinking more about things like this NHC statement just before Harvey made landfall as a major hurricane, while anticipating a similar breakdown in steering currents:

Quote

The initial motion is 325/6, a little slower than before. The eye of Harvey should continue this general motion for the next several hours, which would bring it inland over southeastern Texas. After 12 h or so, the hurricane should become embedded in an area of weak steering currents and become nearly stationary. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey will move slowly through at least 72 h, and the new forecast track shows a slow cyclonic loop during that time. After 72 h, an equally slow motion toward the north or northeast appears likely.

I remember seeing it drift northwest towards San Antonio, wondering if the city could withstand low-end Cat 1 wind speeds.  But even local meteorologists never even mentioned it as a possibility.

 

[UTexasFight 9431]

NAture
From the ISS today

[Loco 3752]

At this point, they are going to run out of Kalik

[BLKNSTY 289]

http:// https://m.facebook.com/groups/1455960181305551?view=permalink&id=2469491529952406&refsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2Fmackeymedia%2Fvideos%2F10156592713773527%2F&_rdr

he really is surrounded by ocean.

[phdhorn 6224]

1 hour ago, Welch said:

I remember seeing it drift northwest towards San Antonio, wondering if the city could withstand low-end Cat 1 wind speeds.  But even local meteorologists never even mentioned it as a possibility.

 

I remember being a little scared about Rita.  That one was barreling NW up the Gulf straight into the Corpus area, and looked to be moving at about 15 mph or faster up 37 and curve right above the Austin/San Marcos corridor.  I was a little scared because if you get a Cat 5 or strong 4 and it moves at a good clip (and can even speed up once on land), even 150 miles inland, at that speed the hurricane, even while breaking up, would still be able to pack 100 mph winds at its core some 8 hours later.

Rita turned at the last minute and made a hard right up the upper Texas coast and laid waste to a good part of Beaumont, while we got virtually nothing.  Same to a lesser degree with Ike.  But for a few hours about a day before Rita's landfall, I was seriously considering boarding up and leaving.  90-100 mph winds (w/sustained gusts to 130) are not something I'd like to ride out.

Austin and points along 35 are not immune to severe hurricane destruction, although it's not nearly as likely as the coast (and of course Austin is vulnerable to copious rain and flooding with the right storm).  But under the right conditions (storm strength, speed, direction), we could suffer up to low Cat 3 damage, which is pretty bad.

Added:  Harvey came pretty close to devastating the Austin area.. it was moving at us with all that rain, and of course was moving very slow and stalled a bit.  If you remember, Harvey's most NW point was Bastrop - a mere 25 miles from Austin's eastern suburbs.  We saw what damage and flooding it did to Bastrop, a relatively small town... if all that rain had come just another 45 minutes NW, Austin's damage might have been in ten figures.  I remember sweating it out wondering if Harvey was going to pick up again and continue its movement, but it kind of stalled, then went a bit south, then finally NE out of Texas - sparing Austin by the thinnest of margins.

Edited September 2, 2019 by phdhorn

[Pancho 44759]

 

[DaysOff 7947]

Runway may be slippery with standing water. Suggest autobrakes max.

[RomaVicta 29905]

Holy fuck! 

Part of me wants to be there on the third floor of a concrete building with 500 gallons of water, 500 MREs, several cases of canned stew and soup, and some meat for a grill when it all passes. A case of liquor. Ten cases of beer. 

I'd distribute most of the water and MREs. Maybe have a big BBQ for me and the survivors when the sun comes out to improve morale.

The good deeds would make me feel better about my desire for disaster thrills porn.

I hope were loading navy amphibious ships with food, water, necessities, and whatever may be needed after an island goes under water. They're going to need it.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Man, I'm used to being pretty comfortable with knowing what to look for in these storms -- living on the Gulf Coast for 50 years, I hadn't realized how much I'd absorbed subconsciously about the timing and directional trends of storms out in the Gulf. Living in North Carolina, it's a whole other ball of wax, and I don't know which locals to trust, either. There's freakout queens worrying that power will be out for 2 weeks because of falling trees, and others who tell me that we're not liable to get more than a few hours of 35 mph wind, if even that much, out of this thing. It's not like they've got short memories, either. Fran tore the shit out of Cape Fear back in the late 90s, and they've had plenty of others.

Here in the Triangle, though, my expectation is that we'll just be spectators. If I'm wrong, hey, maybe land prices will come down and I can get my farm for a steal.

[Loco 3752]

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21186]

1 hour ago, BLKNSTY said:

http:// https://m.facebook.com/groups/1455960181305551?view=permalink&id=2469491529952406&refsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2Fmackeymedia%2Fvideos%2F10156592713773527%2F&_rdr

he really is surrounded by ocean.

That video was taken 8 hours ago...wonder if they're still with us. 

[Nueces River Rat 5538]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

I remember being a little scared about Rita.  That one was barreling NW up the Gulf straight into the Corpus area, and looked to be moving at about 15 mph or faster up 37 and curve right above the Austin/San Marcos corridor.  I was a little scared because if you get a Cat 5 or strong 4 and it moves at a good clip (and can even speed up once on land), even 150 miles inland, at that speed the hurricane, even while breaking up, would still be able to pack 100 mph winds at its core some 8 hours later.

Rita turned at the last minute and made a hard right up the upper Texas coast and laid waste to a good part of Beaumont, while we got virtually nothing.  Same to a lesser degree with Ike.  But for a few hours about a day before Rita's landfall, I was seriously considering boarding up and leaving.  90-100 mph winds (w/sustained gusts to 130) are not something I'd like to ride out.

Austin and points along 35 are not immune to severe hurricane destruction, although it's not nearly as likely as the coast (and of course Austin is vulnerable to copious rain and flooding with the right storm).  But under the right conditions (storm strength, speed, direction), we could suffer up to low Cat 3 damage, which is pretty bad.

Added:  Harvey came pretty close to devastating the Austin area.. it was moving at us with all that rain, and of course was moving very slow and stalled a bit.  If you remember, Harvey's most NW point was Bastrop - a mere 25 miles from Austin's eastern suburbs.  We saw what damage and flooding it did to Bastrop, a relatively small town... if all that rain had come just another 45 minutes NW, Austin's damage might have been in ten figures.  I remember sweating it out wondering if Harvey was going to pick up again and continue its movement, but it kind of stalled, then went a bit south, then finally NE out of Texas - sparing Austin by the thinnest of margins.

 Austin/San Antonio or basically anyone from San Antonio to Waco along I-35 is very vulenerable to tornados spawn off by a landfalling storm under the right circumstances which means they  basically barrel on west or west northwest bound  track and don't do what Harvey did which is hang around the coastal areas.    In fact, many of the storms that hit the coast in 50's, 60' and 70's caused havoc in that part of the state as well.   And of course landfalling storms have made it up to that part of the state and stalled  which caused some memorable flooding events.  More so than the rain received in the coastal areas from the same storm.

I was a kid  in 1980 when Hurricane Allen hit the coast and that storm was a monster.   The cloud shield basically filled up the entire Gulf of Mexico and it was a Cat 5 coming across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Evacuations were ordered from Galveston to  Brownsville because of the size of the storm which if we had to do that today with the growth in all the coastal areas and inland,  it would make the Rita and Ike evacuations look like chicken feed.   Fortunately it stalled out in the Gulf and weakened to a Cat 3 before landfall and the eye went over the King Ranch where only cows, deer, rattlesnakes,  and a few ranch hands lived and catastrophic damage was avoided in Corpus and the RGV.    We evacuated to Waco and stayed with some family and I do recall we had tornado warnings blaring out on TV as the storm made it's way inland.   

If Harvey had not slowed down once it hit inland, it possibly could have done some significant wind damage to the San Antonio area and in fact if I recall, some forecasters feared such a scenario and were even advising maybe not evacuating to San Antonio.   I look at some of the damage done inland around the Refugio area were the storm slowed down and stalled to see what could have been for at least some the San Antonio metro area.   Being almost 50 miles inland didn't do much to minimize the damage there and I hope it was a wake up call to some of think you just have to live a certain distance inland to avoid the catastrophic winds.   Not so by a long shot.  

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

On a call today.  30% of the gas stations in FL are out of fuel at this point and that number is expected to climb.

[MrPhlegm 3413]

On a call today.  30% of the gas stations in FL are out of fuel at this point and that number is expected to climb.

They got lots of gas in Tampa and Canaveral and are having FHP escort the trucks to replenish the stations. Only 30% out of gas is pretty good. Lots of gas stations have emergency generators so can still pump when elec is out. Lines were bad a couple of days ago. When I was out yesterday lines wern't bad. Only peeps in lines now are dumb yankee noobs who don't have a fucking clue.

Local news in Orlando have gone to all evacuate or DIE! 24 hours mode.

They just moved the cone farther east. Good shit.

Anyway I'm ready.

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, Nueces River Rat said:

 Austin/San Antonio or basically anyone from San Antonio to Waco along I-35 is very vulenerable to tornados spawn off by a landfalling storm under the right circumstances which means they  basically barrel on west or west northwest bound  track and don't do what Harvey did which is hang around the coastal areas.    In fact, many of the storms that hit the coast in 50's, 60' and 70's caused havoc in that part of the state as well.   And of course landfalling storms have made it up to that part of the state and stalled  which caused some memorable flooding events.  More so than the rain received in the coastal areas from the same storm.

I was a kid  in 1980 when Hurricane Allen hit the coast and that storm was a monster.   The cloud shield basically filled up the entire Gulf of Mexico and it was a Cat 5 coming across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Evacuations were ordered from Galveston to  Brownsville because of the size of the storm which if we had to do that today with the growth in all the coastal areas and inland,  it would make the Rita and Ike evacuations look like chicken feed.   Fortunately it stalled out in the Gulf and weakened to a Cat 3 before landfall and the eye went over the King Ranch where only cows, deer, rattlesnakes,  and a few ranch hands lived and catastrophic damage was avoided in Corpus and the RGV.    We evacuated to Waco and stayed with some family and I do recall we had tornado warnings blaring out on TV as the storm made it's way inland.   

If Harvey had not slowed down once it hit inland, it possibly could have done some significant wind damage to the San Antonio area and in fact if I recall, some forecasters feared such a scenario and were even advising maybe not evacuating to San Antonio.   I look at some of the damage done inland around the Refugio area were the storm slowed down and stalled to see what could have been for at least some the San Antonio metro area.   Being almost 50 miles inland didn't do much to minimize the damage there and I hope it was a wake up call to some of think you just have to live a certain distance inland to avoid the catastrophic winds.   Not so by a long shot.  

Yup. re Harvey I didn’t leave Port A until almost noon the day it hit. Ended up evacuating to South Padre because I wanted to avoid the potential rain in San Antonio or Austin. The weather down there was great and we got a cheap hotel on the beach, but it sucked watching the news and seeing what was happening at home.

[mchookem 16327]

i'm always amazed at how rational hurricanes make Phlegm.

[Zepol87 9185]

i'm always amazed at how rational hurricanes make Phlegm.

Yep I can understand every word

[Loco 3752]

2 hours ago, MrPhlegm said:

They just moved the cone farther east. Good shit.

 

Don't think so.  Storm is farther east than forecast. 

 

 

[Nueces River Rat 5538]

Yup. re Harvey I didn’t leave Port A until almost noon the day it hit. Ended up evacuating to South Padre because I wanted to avoid the potential rain in San Antonio or Austin. The weather down there was great and we got a cheap hotel on the beach, but it sucked watching the news and seeing what was happening at home.

Yes I should’ve gone south bound as well.

[Loco 3752]

Nothing like hanging out in your attic 

 

[Loco 3752]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

1 hour ago, Loco said:

 

pretty sure at that point its time to get to the roof

[Loco 3752]

6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

pretty sure at that point its time to get to the roof

Not with 150mph winds throwing 2x4s around...  but yeah ...  not a lot of great choices there

[HeHateMe 883]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Not with 150mph winds throwing 2x4s around...  but yeah ...  not a lot of great choices there

No shit. That looks like certain death.

[Surly Bevo 24908]

Still getting cell service or some data service though. So they got that going for them at least.

[Loco 3752]

I hope they had a hole in the roof already, but where camping in the attic to stay out of the water and wind...  just feel bad for them with kids etc..  and the storm just sitting on them.  Gonna be a lot of dead and missing Bahamians 

[Dewey 3286]

Dont know how to post the video,  but they're saying Abaco has been swiped of all structures, just scattered cars and tree stumps.  Scary shit.

[Trey3216 15346]

12-24 hours of that northwest and due north winds into that natural bay north of Freeport is horrific.  Just stacks water on top of water, especially with 150+ mph winds 

[Dewey 3286]

Theres a Twitter thread by Sean Breslin talking about the people of Abaco, specifically the Haitian immigrants and where they live on the island. Some real devastation. Very sad 

[triplehorn 2664]

1 hour ago, Dewey said:

Theres a Twitter thread by Sean Breslin talking about the people of Abaco, specifically the Haitian immigrants and where they live on the island. Some real devastation. Very sad 

 

 

[justhookit 4191]

8 hours ago, tjhooker said:

I'm sure it is absolutely beautiful right now in the Keys.  The media is trying their best to make this US miss as if it is going to hit the US.  There will be some beach erosion. The horror! 

Go fuck yourself. Seriously.

I still don’t have a home, 2 years after Harvey and a bunch of my friends lost literally everything they owned.

[Paco 1934]

Obligatory BODIES IN THE TREES

[Loco 3752]

 

[HornsOverIthaca 2333]

Let the bodies hit the TREEES

[Loco 3752]

What trees?