Jump to content

2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

clapclapclap

By clapclapclap
in Daily Texan

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 794
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Posted Images

Dewey

Dewey 3286

Posted
Posted

More from a credible source, this, obviously deals with the Houston area,  but gives those curious about the storms brewing in the Atlantic a better understanding 

 

As one might expect in mid-September, the Atlantic tropics are sizzling. The National Hurricane Center has bumped up development chances for Invest 95L, now located near the Bahamas, to 80 percent over the next five days. There are some questions about where the center of this tropical disturbance will actually set up, and that will help determine its track. At present, most of the better modeling suggests a more northward formation, leading to a track that brings the storm to Florida, or keeps it east of the state, off the coast, like with Dorian. In any case, this is more tropical weather the Bahamas does not need. There is a lesser chance of a formation to the southwest, in which the bulk of the tropical system could drift westward, into the Gulf of Mexico. This might significantly increase Texas’ rain chances next week, but seems like the lower probability scenario for now.

There is also another system out there with a 40 percent chance of developing over the next five days. Right now, the odds appear to be against this system tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico.

annnnnd, maybe a cold front in the next 10 days or so

 

https://spacecityweather.com/a-hot-weekend-tropics-tracking-and-the-regions-first-front/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Link to comment
Share on other sites
crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dewey said:

More from a credible source, this, obviously deals with the Houston area,  but gives those curious about the storms brewing in the Atlantic a better understanding 

 

As one might expect in mid-September, the Atlantic tropics are sizzling. The National Hurricane Center has bumped up development chances for Invest 95L, now located near the Bahamas, to 80 percent over the next five days. There are some questions about where the center of this tropical disturbance will actually set up, and that will help determine its track. At present, most of the better modeling suggests a more northward formation, leading to a track that brings the storm to Florida, or keeps it east of the state, off the coast, like with Dorian. In any case, this is more tropical weather the Bahamas does not need. There is a lesser chance of a formation to the southwest, in which the bulk of the tropical system could drift westward, into the Gulf of Mexico. This might significantly increase Texas’ rain chances next week, but seems like the lower probability scenario for now.

There is also another system out there with a 40 percent chance of developing over the next five days. Right now, the odds appear to be against this system tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico.

annnnnd, maybe a cold front in the next 10 days or so

 

https://spacecityweather.com/a-hot-weekend-tropics-tracking-and-the-regions-first-front/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Joe Bastardi's video this morning was pretty blunt that he sees this thing staying off the east coast of Florida and becoming a hurricane hitting Chesapeake Bay next weekend. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

That one isn't going to come anywhere near the Gulf and it's going to remain tropical storm, maybe a weak cat 1, come up Florida and turn out into the Atlantic before it hits the Carolinas.

Kind of a worst-case Dorian scenario, but it'ill be weak and move quickly so damaged will be fairly low, at least not catastrophic.some wind damage, if it moves fast not a lot of flooding, but Florida will flood easily of course.

In general I think it'll be okay.

the worst part is that it's supposed to take almost an identical path over the Bahamas, and although it'll be much weaker and move  faster than Dorian (which of course just sat there for 2 days),  it's just another damaging shot for an area that is almost beyond damaged now.

Edited by phdhorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23561

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
2 hours ago, miguelito said:
My house can be a safe harbor for evacuating hot chicks.  I'm guaranteed to not get any rain.

That 2 bed 1 bath studio you call a house isnt going to work

To be fair, that sounds like a pretty f'n rad studio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

We are supposed to fly out of IAH tomorrow at 12:30 to Milwaukee.   I am thinking about changing our flight to one out of Austin.  United has send out emails and texts about the weather and they are waving any fees for changing.

I would if were you. While I doubt this will be a major storm, it will fuck up travel 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3359

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I tried to, but the waiver only applies if you keep the same cities.  Good job United, you fucking idiots.

Probably should try giving United a call. My wife could not get home after Harvey due to the airport being shut down. United allowed waivers to Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio but as you would imagine, those flights were full. I called United to route her to JAC since her parents have a vacation home there. The first representative I spoke to would not do it, so I asked for a supervisor who cleared the ticket without me having to ask twice. 

It makes sense. United, or any airline except AA, should want to clear up itineraries when weather disrupts over multiple days. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kevwun

kevwun 15835

Posted
Posted (edited)

I called and the lady said the same thing.  You have to keep the same departure and arrival city.  The only way we could have avoided Houston is if we had been connecting there.  I swear airlines try to make weather events as big of a clusterfuck as possible.  They should be encouraging anyone to fly out of a different city if it's possible.

Edited by kevwun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3359

Posted
Posted
Just now, kevwun said:

I called and the lady said the same thing.  You have to keep the same departure and arrival city.  The only way we could have avoided Houston is if we had been connecting there.  I swear airlines try to make weather events as big of a clusterfuck as possible.

Damn, that is BS. I guess Harvey was different since when I called the airport was closed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
texasdago

texasdago 7576

Posted
Posted

Issued 10 minutes ago....

  

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0860
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172041Z - 180241Z

Summary...As Tropical Storm Imelda continues to slowly drift
further inland, there will be an increasing threat of flash
flooding into the evening hours on the Upper Texas Coast. This may
include portions of the Houston Metro Area.

Discussion...There are two primary areas of concern for flash
flooding associated with Tropical Storm Imelda as it continues to
move inland late this afternoon and into the evening. The first
area would be associated with tropical rain bands to the east of
the track of the center, embedded within a ribbon of persistent,
enhanced moisture flux and stronger low-level flow in the eastern
semi-circle of the storm. Places around Galveston Bay would be the
most likely to be impacted by these rain bands. The second area
would be associated with increasing coastal convergence in the
coastal counties of Matagorda, Brazoria and Galveston. Winds
offshore would be likely to back slightly (increasing southerly
component) and remain stronger relative to over-land winds as
Imelda's center moves inland. This could increase convergence
closer to the coast, and coincide with a slight increase in
instability as more unstable air over the Gulf gets advected just
onshore. The combination of low-level convergence and instability
may support increasingly organized and stronger rain bands.
Overall, these expectations align with numerical model predictions
of the heaviest rain falling to the east and south of the center.
Given the slow motion of Imelda (likely to move only about 50
miles in 9 hours based on the official NHC forecast), organized
tropical rain bands may persist in these two areas for an extended
period of time, which would lead to an increasing flash flood
threat.

Rain rates in the stronger rain bands would be likely to reach the
2-3 in/hr range, and could exceed that if stronger instability can
develop onshore and coincide with low-level forcing mechanisms
mentioned above. If that occurs, rain rates into the 3-5 in/hr
range could occur on an isolated basis in the strongest, most
organized rain bands. Several gages in southern Harris County near
the Sam Houston Tollway and I-45 have measured 1.16 inches of rain
in 30 minutes (20:00 to 20:30Z), and 5-minute rain rates have been
as high as 0.36 inches. This is an early indicator of very high
instantaneous rain rates in the tropical rain bands, but thus far
the rain bands have been relatively narrow and transient relative
to stationary locations. However, if larger rain bands can become
established, more substantial hourly rain rates would be likely,
and this would be more likely to have notable flash flood impacts.

The concern for the overnight hours is if several inches of rain
from early rain bands pre-condition the ground along the Upper
Texas Coast this afternoon and early this evening, and then
another burst of convection develops closer to Imelda's center
overnight. Convection tends to concentrate closer to the center of
circulation in the overnight period of the diurnal cycle, and this
could enable additional heavy rain over areas that already
received heavy rainfall earlier in the day. The NHC forecast also
calls for the center to move very close to Houston by 06Z, which
would place a potentially favored area for nocturnal convection
directly over a major metro area. This will continue to be
monitored into the evening hours.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...