2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[Fudge Nuggets 19195]

Just closed on a house two weeks ago and damn glad I already have the flood insurance in place.  

Edited September 19, 2019 by Fudge Nuggets

[deadshank 24653]

1 hour ago, Lat22 said:

It’s a mess again. I tried to get out of the neighborhood to head south and couldn’t (without waking stalled cars and people’s front doors).

I live  in your neighborhood.  How bad is it now?

[UT_OB1 2224]

21 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Just closed on a house two weeks ago and damn glad I already have the flood insurance in place.  

I was supposed to close on a house tonight, but a freeze on new flood ins was put in place Tuesday.  Probably not closing until Monday now.  The mortgages  i've looked at have required that flood be escrowed (flood required no matter what)

[Vic Mackey 47057]

In Beaumont

[Trey3216 15346]

5 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

In Beaumont

damn

[Lat22 4014]

21 minutes ago, deadshank said:

I live  in your neighborhood.  How bad is it now?

Briarbrook and Sugar Hill is flooded at stop sign. One stalled car there. Turned left before I got there and made a uturn when I got to your street. I hear that Seagler and Briar Forest is impassable. Looks like the doves in south Texas will be safe this afternoon. 

[ztejas 43464]

On 9/18/2019 at 11:51 AM, Hate said:

and Harvey where we had about 41 inches of rain in a 4 day stretch.  I figure if we haven't flooded yet, it's not likely that we will,

Yeah if you didn't flood during Harvey then I can't imagine what would cause your street to flood. Anything worse than Harvey and Houston is fucked as a whole. 

[crash_davis 23113]

it's amazing that this shit is almost an annual basis not for houston/se texas area.  nope, nothing is wrong with the climate.

Edited September 19, 2019 by crash_davis

[deadshank 24653]

Just now, Lat22 said:

Briarbrook and Sugar Hill is flooded at stop sign. One stalled car there. Turned left before I got there and made a uturn when I got to your street. I hear that Seagler and Briar Forest is impassable. Looks like the doves in south Texas will be safe this afternoon. 

Thanks for the update.  What was your approach coming into BGP?  From BW8 by Buffalo Bayou?

 

[heinhorn 16]

Check this out: 

http://rainfall.dd6.org/maps.html

 

One of the gauges shows 34 inches in the last 24 hours.  42 inches in the last 72.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

40 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Just closed on a house two weeks ago and damn glad I already have the flood insurance in place.  

Doesn't it take 30 days for the policy to go into effect or is that not applicable on new home purchases?

[Trey3216 15346]

4 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

it's amazing that this shit is almost an annual basis not for houston/se texas area.  nope, nothing is wrong with the climate.

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19195]

6 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Doesn't it take 30 days for the policy to go into effect or is that not applicable on new home purchases?

I hope I don't have to find out because I'm stranded downtown right now and the policy is in the safety deposit box.  You could very well be right.

[MirrOlure 14787]

Greg Bostwick (Beaumont's most trusted meteorologist for damn near 40 years) just explained that the reason so many places that flooded today that didn't flood in Harvey is that the rainfall rate was higher this time, such that some areas got 30" in 24 hours.  Harvey was spread out over 3-4 days so areas near bayous, creeks and rivers were more adversely affected. 

[Lat22 4014]

14 minutes ago, deadshank said:

Thanks for the update.  What was your approach coming into BGP?  From BW8 by Buffalo Bayou?

 

I was trying to exit BGP. I was home. 

Edited September 19, 2019 by Lat22

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Truth. It's the development, stupid.

[deadshank 24653]

12 minutes ago, Lat22 said:

I was trying to exit BGP. I was home. 

Oh.  Come get me. 

[Teddyballgame 441]

21 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I hope I don't have to find out because I'm stranded downtown right now and the policy is in the safety deposit box.  You could very well be right.

Unfortunately that is correct.  It takes 30 days

[Horns99 155]

Briarbrook and Sugar Hill is flooded at stop sign. One stalled car there. Turned left before I got there and made a uturn when I got to your street. I hear that Seagler and Briar Forest is impassable. Looks like the doves in south Texas will be safe this afternoon. 

Front of the hood is much better now. No flooding in the streets anymore. I came in off Westheimer

[Girdwood 118]

57 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

That is exactly what is going on. Even parts of the Heights that didn't flood during Harvey are flooding today. Hell, my old house flooded and we weren't even close to flooding during Harvey or Memorial Day/Tax Day. Grade and pave over everything in sight and this is what happens. 

Houston area has a major impervious cover issue on their hands and the timeline is much faster than any climate change in my opinion.

[gmr548 16580]

Its both. Two 1,000 year rain events over three years in the same general area is an obvious hint that the climate, particularly the way tropical systems behave, is changing.

 

Obviously developing areas that were previously natural flood control and turning them into flood prone areas is also part of the problem. And it's correct that the consequence of that is felt a lot faster.

 

You can't engineer your way out of this problem. I don't know what we're going to do for SETX.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

[Honeysucklerose 990]

I hope I don't have to find out because I'm stranded downtown right now and the policy is in the safety deposit box.  You could very well be right.

It is generally 30 days

[Girdwood 118]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

You can't engineer your way out of this problem. I don't know what we're going to do for SETX.

Large detention ponds every sq mile might fix it. Might. That would probably only cost a trillion bucks. 

But really, it's only going to get worse especially in rapidly developing areas like the Heights. The topo and flood plain maps are irrelevant and outdated at this point. 

Anywhere between TC Jester and Durham is fucked right now. Even 19th Street businesses east of Shepherd/Durham had some flooding.

Edited September 19, 2019 by Girdwood

[GreenspointTexas 9608]

6 minutes ago, Girdwood said:

Large detention ponds every sq mile might fix it. Might. That would probably only cost a trillion bucks. 

But really, it's only going to get worse especially in rapidly developing areas like the Heights. The topo and flood plain maps are irrelevant and outdated at this point. 

Anywhere between TC Jester and Durham is fucked right now. Even 19th Street businesses east of Shepherd/Durham had some flooding.

That shit is in the floodplain anyway.

 

10th and lawrence (my hood) is just fine. U get what u pay for

[GreenspointTexas 9608]

3rd wettest storm in US history, behind Amelia (1978) and harvey

may pass amelia for #2

[Girdwood 118]

1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

That shit is in the floodplain anyway.

 

10th and lawrence (my hood) is just fine. U get what u pay for

Was referring to 19th St between Heights and Shepherd, but yeah all that other shit is in the floodplain.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Please excuse the question from someone who knows shit-all about Houston but what are the conditions like around the airport and MD Anderson?

My BIL is in Atlanta on a layover headed there for some tests and I’m just being a nervous nelly after seeing this on the news.

Y’all try and stay dry and safe!

[GreenspointTexas 9608]

Well the Bush airport is closed.. likely through tomorrow

 

Getting from there to the Med Center should be doable tomorrow, but it was a death sentence earlier today

[gmr548 16580]

5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Please excuse the question from someone who knows shit-all about Houston but what are the conditions like around the airport and MD Anderson?

My BIL is in Atlanta on a layover headed there for some tests and I’m just being a nervous nelly after seeing this on the news.

Y’all try and stay dry and safe!

Depends on which airport. IAH is northeast of town and kind of on the edge of the areas that saw the most concentrated rain. The airport suspended operations and driving in/out isn't happening. I'm sure it'll reopen to some extent tomorrow as the roads drain but I imagine it'll be backed up for a few days. I believe Hobby, which is southeast, is still operating, though I'd imagine there are heavy delays/cancellations. I don't know what it looks like on I-45 from Hobby to the city or what the best alternate routes would be.

As for MD Anderson, there is definitely some street flooding in/around downtown and the med center. My girlfriend is a grad student at UT Health Science Center, she didn't go down to the med center today because of driving conditions.

Overall, the primary impact in Houston is road flooding that is bringing transportation to a standstill. I don't believe there has been a lot of property damage or injuries/death in the city. That is happening in outer NE suburbs (though IAH is on the edge of it) and off to points east between the Houston area and Beaumont. Your BIL may or may not even be able to fly into Houston tonight, but I am sure by tomorrow it should be more navigable given that the storm has already begun to move on. It may be a pain in the ass (more so than usual) to get around while he's there but it isn't a violent windstorm where you're in danger just by being in the area type thing. As TXDOT likes to say, "turn around, don't drown" and he'll be fine.

And of course, best wishes to your BIL and your family.

[Lat22 4014]

Front of the hood is much better now. No flooding in the streets anymore. I came in off Westheimer

I made it out about 3. Water had receded but I did have to navigate around all of the abandoned stalls. Put my sunglasses on around El Campo and it was bone dry the rest of the way.

[Iceman 2715]

5 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I don't know what we're going to do for SETX.

As someone who relocated from South Montgomery County in April this year, I know exactly what the fuck to do.

I’m digging the borderline CR posts about climatology and urban sprawl.  It’s like saying the QB rules in the NFL have produced Pat Mahomes II.   No he’s a talent unlike we have ever seen.  Same with Imelda.  You got half the rain of Harvey in 1/4 of the time.  You motherfuckers  are blaming the most extreme of weather events on bullshit.  In Harvey, the deepest the water ever got at my house was up to my lower calf right at the edge of the street. It was barely touching my grass.  Neighbors shot us pics today of water up to the front porch. 

The solution is to fucking move, but people insist on living there. While I care dearly for some very close friends there, I feel for Houston, the metro, just like I do New Orleans.

You know the score, and stick around?  You fucking deal with it.

[gmr548 16580]

12 minutes ago, Iceman said:

The solution is to fucking move

This is of course the ultimate truth.

If I were king for a day, we'd be retreating from the gulf coast between roughly Lake Jackson/Freeport and New Orleans. Or, at the very least, a foundation redesign of the built environment and the development patterns of the Houston area. However, I won't be king anytime soon and neither of those things are going to happen in any major way. So here we are.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Thanks y’all.

We just heard he made it there but he’s having a mess of a time getting to his hotel.

He was diagnosed with colon cancer last year - he’s only 36 - and his latest scan showed something suspicious in his stomach.

They don’t know if it’s cancer that’s spread or scar tissue or something else but he’s skipping dealing with the doctors in Auburn and going to MDA for more tests and a biopsy.

They not only saved his life but kept him from living with a colostomy bag when all the local docs told him the bag was inevitable.

Those folks are miracle workers.

[Dewey 3286]

MD Anderson is the best, glad he made it in. 

[Bookman 4639]

16 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Truth. It's the development, stupid.

I'm no expert, but I think the rain probably has something to do with it as well.

[Hate 20108]

And to add insult to injury, there is a disturbance in the Caribbean that is forecast to move into the Gulf early next week.  Some weather models are predicting it to move towards the NW Gulf where the environment for development is more favorable.

 

A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly
to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. This system
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and significant
development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Greater Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

 

This is from a pro met on a board I follow:

Looking at the longer range, an active pattern looks to continue. The stubborn ridge that was parked over TX for much of August and first half of September looks to be gone as Imelda so-to-speak has buckled the stagnant weather pattern. Indications are that we'll get a fetch of deep tropical moisture continuing into the month of October and fronts beginning to work there way down here - likely stalling to our north - focusing an enhanced rainfall along the stalled boundary. In addition, a robust Kelvin Wave will likely heat up the tropics again during the next few weeks. Climatologically speaking, our threat begins to diminish come October, however, Mother Nature doesn't always follow the calendar.

[deadshank 24653]

14 hours ago, Lat22 said:

I made it out about 3. Water had receded but I did have to navigate around all of the abandoned stalls. Put my sunglasses on around El Campo and it was bone dry the rest of the way.

Are the birds flying?  

Headed out to Uvalde at noon. Can't wait for dry weather.

[Trey3216 15346]

Imelda is Fuck You?  

[Lat22 4014]

4 hours ago, deadshank said:

Are the birds flying?  

Headed out to Uvalde at noon. Can't wait for dry weather.

I’ll let you know in about 2 hours. Hot, dry and windy down in Brooks County. 

[Bevo 13577]

8 hours ago, Hate said:

And to add insult to injury, there is a disturbance in the Caribbean that is forecast to move into the Gulf early next week.  Some weather models are predicting it to move towards the NW Gulf where the environment for development is more favorable.

 

A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly
to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. This system
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and significant
development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Greater Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

 

This is from a pro met on a board I follow:

Looking at the longer range, an active pattern looks to continue. The stubborn ridge that was parked over TX for much of August and first half of September looks to be gone as Imelda so-to-speak has buckled the stagnant weather pattern. Indications are that we'll get a fetch of deep tropical moisture continuing into the month of October and fronts beginning to work there way down here - likely stalling to our north - focusing an enhanced rainfall along the stalled boundary. In addition, a robust Kelvin Wave will likely heat up the tropics again during the next few weeks. Climatologically speaking, our threat begins to diminish come October, however, Mother Nature doesn't always follow the calendar.

Lots of words. Does this mean that we will get rain in Austin?

[Hate 20108]

[Bevo 13577]

17 minutes ago, Hate said:

PLEASE

[clapclapclap 9000]

So it looks like the disturbance west of the Yucatan Peninsula will stay south and move west into Mexico, with only a 10% chance of development.  Hurricane Lorenzo Joe and post-TS Jerry should stay fish storms out in the Atlantic.  But TS Karen could do a weird loop and maybe head for the Gulf of Mexico next week:

[Dewey 3286]

From the space city blog

The much ballyhooed Tropical Storm Karen is moving north, but beyond that there’s not much clarity about what is going to happen. It may strengthen in five days, or it may dissipate. It may spiral around for awhile, or it may turn west. There remains a very small chance—call it 5 percent or less—that some remnant or version of Karen wanders across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 7-10 days. There is virtually no chance this would threaten Texas; and this is so far away, and so remote a possibility, it’s not something anyone local should be worried about.

https://spacecityweather.com/sunny-with-a-chance-of-showers-and-thunderstorms-this-weekend/

[Iceman 2715]

better hunker down, Galveston...