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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

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By clapclapclap
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Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

I hate talking too much about these things in great depth because they never do what people predict, duh.

Nevertheless, a few of my observations:
1) Looks like it'll do something "west of the Mississippi" (I said didn't think so yesterday, yay for me). 
2) But... the west side of a storm is less expansive as you probably know (the storms distort so the eastern half is more expansive).
3) So, even if it moves up the Sabine area, chances of ATX getting anything significant out of it are low.
4) Even HOU/GAL would at this prediction get a good bit of rain but almost certainly little wind/tide damage (winds around a storm are counterclockwise so the water would blow pretty much parallel to the coast on a Sabine landing, meh).
5) At this point, still not a big deal, but of course this thing could move more west than north.  Then we'll see.

Still think it'll do more shit east of us, maybe soak the TX coast, but right now that's my story sticking to it blah blah (I just guaranteed this will move more west now).

 

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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8238

Posted
Posted

Hey, at least it's not sitting in the Bay of Campeche strengthening for a north run straight up the gulf with a rain-laden NE quadrant with Houston's name on it.

That won't happen until 60 days from now, right?

This feels like a storm that's gonna dump 10 inches on LA and we will get about 2-3 here in Beaumont.  Just making my prediction so I can gauge accuracy next week.

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CHEF DIESEL

CHEF DIESEL 126

Posted
Posted

In NOLA the 9th Ward still has the lowest levees at 20 feet. Many of the other levees in NOLA are 22 feet as a universal standard. It's hard to gauge right now but that 20 foot number elsewhere often translates to about 19 feet in the 9th Ward.

Uptown/Carrollton area of NOLA has 23 foot levees because that's where a lot of the money is at.

I wonder if the pump stations are working. So much federal money was dumped into new pump stations that should leave most of the city high and dry from big rains. City government can go to hell for letting the streets flood with all the pump station infrastructure paid for by people living outside of Louisiana.

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Lobwedgephil

Lobwedgephil 1146

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Seems like some of these models have had poor initialization. Recon will help with that a lot. 

Initialization seems fine, but nothing really matters until this thing develops. Not sure how much Recon today will help, it will certainly help by tomorrow. 

 

02L_tracks_latest.png

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Lobwedgephil

Lobwedgephil 1146

Posted
Posted
On 7/8/2019 at 12:32 PM, Kyrie Eleison said:

headed to NOLA Wed-Sun...will report back on cannibalism.

How's your trip going? 

From Crown Weather this afternoon:

Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, July 10, 2019

Some Thoughts About The Potential For Major Catastrophic Flooding In New Orleans This Weekend

I am EXTREMELY CONCERNED about the potential for flooding in New Orleans this weekend due to the combination of record river heights, heavy rainfall of up to 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, strong onshore winds and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.
The Mississippi River at New Orleans is already at 16 feet and is expected to reach 20 feet by Saturday morning. The levees can handle a surge of up to 20 feet before they fail. This forecast is not an exact science and does not include all of the rainfall that is expected in the coming days. In addition, it does not include the waves that will likely top 20 feet.

This all spells a potential major catastrophic flood disaster for New Orleans. In addition, other levees along the Mississippi River are likely to fail in the coming days and especially this weekend.

Bottom Line Is That New Orleans and cities and towns along the Mississippi River need to be preparing NOW for what could be the worst flooding since 1927. This looks about as bad as it can be in terms of flood threat.

Finally, the flooding that occurred today in New Orleans is just a prelude to what is likely coming in terms of flooding. The true flood conditions will not arrive until Friday night and Saturday. So, it is time now to think about evacuations.

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Paper_jam

Paper_jam 851

Posted
Posted

The NWS warning for New Orleans before Katrina was something else: 

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service_bulletin_for_Hurricane_Katrina

 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

Posted
Posted (edited)

I own a short term rental in Galveston that I book mainly through AirBnB.  I have a moderate cancellation policy, meaning that you get a 50% refund if you cancel more than 5 days out, but nothing if you cancel within 5.  They do have an "extenuating circumstances" clause that covers listed natural disasters, terrorism, and death of family members.  It doesn't really matter, but it doesn't mention hurricanes in the natural disasters.  Well the person booked for the weekend called AirBnB and told them that there are travel restrictions in place making it not safe for them to come from New Orleans.  The wonderful people at AirBnB didn't bother to ask them when they were coming or where they were coming from.  

They are from Austin (it is in their profile).  They are currently in North Carolina.  They are choosing to drive through New Orleans, and they are scheduled to check in Saturday night, when the storm will have passed through.  I'd be fine refunding them Thursday night if the storm was predicted to hit Galveston/Houston area Saturday morning.  Hell, even if it was going to hit over in Beaumont.  But giving them a full refund because of travel restrictions in New Orleans, where they aren't even located, for a stay in Galveston where it isn't even expected to hit is bull shit.  Yeah, its going to rain.  It is July on the coast.  That happens.  

Edited by UT_OB1
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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Yeah I think you're in the wrong on this one. If the current track holds, I have no idea how they could get from Nola to Galveston Friday or Saturday. 

If the current forecast track holds New Orleans will wash away into the bayou

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

clause that covers listed natural disasters, terrorism, and death of family members.  It doesn't really matter, but it doesn't mention hurricanes in the natural disasters.

Pretty sure Severe Storms covers Hurricanes 

Natural disasters that prevent the guest from traveling to or from the destination, or that make it unsafe to host guests. Examples include:

  • Severe storms
  • Earthquakes
  • Flooding
  • Tornados
  • Tsunamis
  • Wildfires
  • Blizzards or severe winter storms
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Pretty sure Severe Storms covers Hurricanes 

Natural disasters that prevent the guest from traveling to or from the destination, or that make it unsafe to host guests. Examples include:

  • Severe storms
  • Earthquakes
  • Flooding
  • Tornados
  • Tsunamis
  • Wildfires
  • Blizzards or severe winter storms

Yeah, I got know problem with hurricanes being included. I was more surprised by the fact it isn’t specifically

mentioned. Would certainly rank above earthquakes for me. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30711

Posted
Posted

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Orleans-Achilles-Heel-Hurricane-Storm-Surge-During-Mississippi-River-Flood

  https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_f31f5436-a347-11e9-beaa-67f2b43123a7.html 

 

As usual the national press misses the story.  This is the story.  Red areas are levees that are not up to the 20-22 feet height.   They did not think about an early storm with record Midwestern flooding causing river crest on a full moon on the same day the storm surge hits.

 

thumbnail?appId=aolwebmail&downloadWhenT

 

The%20Birds%20End%20of%20the%20World.jpg

 

It's the End of the World!!

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20555

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

How's your trip going? 

From Crown Weather this afternoon:

Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, July 10, 2019

Some Thoughts About The Potential For Major Catastrophic Flooding In New Orleans This Weekend

I am EXTREMELY CONCERNED about the potential for flooding in New Orleans this weekend due to the combination of record river heights, heavy rainfall of up to 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, strong onshore winds and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.
The Mississippi River at New Orleans is already at 16 feet and is expected to reach 20 feet by Saturday morning. The levees can handle a surge of up to 20 feet before they fail. This forecast is not an exact science and does not include all of the rainfall that is expected in the coming days. In addition, it does not include the waves that will likely top 20 feet.

This all spells a potential major catastrophic flood disaster for New Orleans. In addition, other levees along the Mississippi River are likely to fail in the coming days and especially this weekend.

Bottom Line Is That New Orleans and cities and towns along the Mississippi River need to be preparing NOW for what could be the worst flooding since 1927. This looks about as bad as it can be in terms of flood threat.

Finally, the flooding that occurred today in New Orleans is just a prelude to what is likely coming in terms of flooding. The true flood conditions will not arrive until Friday night and Saturday. So, it is time now to think about evacuations.

644397e7-c348-4845-8ad1-423573f13713_tex

 

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Zepol87

Zepol87 9340

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

I own a short term rental in Galveston that I book mainly through AirBnB.  I have a moderate cancellation policy, meaning that you get a 50% refund if you cancel more than 5 days out, but nothing if you cancel within 5.  They do have an "extenuating circumstances" clause that covers listed natural disasters, terrorism, and death of family members.  It doesn't really matter, but it doesn't mention hurricanes in the natural disasters.  Well the person booked for the weekend called AirBnB and told them that there are travel restrictions in place making it not safe for them to come from New Orleans.  The wonderful people at AirBnB didn't bother to ask them when they were coming or where they were coming from.  

They are from Austin (it is in their profile).  They are currently in North Carolina.  They are choosing to drive through New Orleans, and they are scheduled to check in Saturday night, when the storm will have passed through.  I'd be fine refunding them Thursday night if the storm was predicted to hit Galveston/Houston area Saturday morning.  Hell, even if it was going to hit over in Beaumont.  But giving them a full refund because of travel restrictions in New Orleans, where they aren't even located, for a stay in Galveston where it isn't even expected to hit is bull shit.  Yeah, its going to rain.  It is July on the coast.  That happens.  

Don't know you but you sound like a dick. 

So wtf is up with NO how are the levels and pumps not handling this storm that isn't even a tropical depression yet? 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

Don't know you but you sound like a dick. 

So wtf is up with NO how are the levels and pumps not handling this storm that isn't even a tropical depression yet? 

The Mississippi is already high from floods in the Midwest.  Top that off with extra heavy rains in the NOLA area and just upriver, and it’s a bad deal.  Top that off with a topical storm/hurricane, and it’s a fucking disaster.  

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5794

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

Gotcha. Just crazy that this not yet tropical storm is already fucking it up for that city. If a real storm comes through they are proper fucked this time. Really sucks

The French made a good decision to sell this city to the US when Jefferson was President.    And it's probably been their best move since then.  

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1594

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

The French made a good decision to sell this city to the US when Jefferson was President.    And it's probably been their best move since then.  

Jefferson may have purchased it, but Andrew Jackson saved it.  The battle for New Orleans is a great read and AJ (and his rag tag bunch), though he had his detractors, were nails along the Chalmette Plain in 1812.

Edited by jdhorn92
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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5794

Posted
Posted (edited)

My gut tells me this might be one of those events that gets overhyped too much (as most storms are now thanks to the media frenzy)  and unfortunately the NWS/NOAA is adding fuel to fire.  Keep it up NOAA because stuff like this makes you become like the boy who cried wolf and when the next big real one hits, people will ignore.  

This thing hasn't even formed as a depression and if you read the press and the advisories,   one would think the second coming of Katrina was hitting the Cajun coast.   Good fricken grief it will probably be a strong tropical storm and maybe a minimal hurricane.   Once upon a time along the coast we just used to treat those things  (as in depressions,  tropical storms and very minimal hurricanes) as a minor inconvenience, much like a typical severe weather event caused by a cold front or some other weather disturbance.   Now the National Guard, FEMA and all the other emergency agencies are placed on standby.  

Edited by Nueces River Rat
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Machinator

Machinator 32103

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Nueces River Rat said:

My gut tells me this might be one of those events that gets overhyped too much (as most storms are now thanks to the media frenzy)  and unfortunately the NWS/NOAA is adding fuel to fire.  Keep it up NOAA because stuff like this makes you become like the boy who cried wolf and when the next big real one hits, people will ignore.  

This thing hasn't even formed as a depression and if you read the press and the advisories,   one would think the second coming of Katrina was hitting the Cajun coast.   Good fricken grief it will probably be a strong tropical storm and maybe a minimal hurricane.   Once upon a time along the coast we just used to treat those things as a minor inconvenience, much like a typical severe weather event caused by a cold front or some other weather disturbance.   Now the National Guard, FEMA and all the other emergency agencies are places on standby.  

My understanding is that the strength of the storm isn't necessarily the issue as is the fact that the Mississippi is already at a dangerously high level, meaning that any halfway significant rain event will do real damage.

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Blotto

Blotto 24011

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Machinator said:

My understanding is that the strength of the storm isn't necessarily the issue as is the fact that the Mississippi is already at a dangerously high level, meaning that any halfway significant rain event will do real damage.

Correct. The already elevated levels of the mississippi, a slow moving rain system, combined with a moderate storm surge could result in some nasty flooding in NO. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16691

Posted
Posted
My gut tells me this might be one of those events that gets overhyped too much (as most storms are now thanks to the media frenzy)  and unfortunately the NWS/NOAA is adding fuel to fire.  Keep it up NOAA because stuff like this makes you become like the boy who cried wolf and when the next big real one hits, people will ignore.  
This thing hasn't even formed as a depression and if you read the press and the advisories,   one would think the second coming of Katrina was hitting the Cajun coast.   Good fricken grief it will probably be a strong tropical storm and maybe a minimal hurricane.   Once upon a time along the coast we just used to treat those things  (as in depressions,  tropical storms and very minimal hurricanes) as a minor inconvenience, much like a typical severe weather event caused by a cold front or some other weather disturbance.   Now the National Guard, FEMA and all the other emergency agencies are placed on standby.  

The strength of the storm isn't the issue. The flooding is. Not unlike Harvey for Houston. It Is a slow moving storm projected to drop a lot of rain. The Mississippi is only few feet from topping levees now, before a major rain event. Forecasts have consistently shown enough rain to cause the river to spill over the levees. Not to mention, as the storm moves north, the rain will continue to drain into the Mississippi, prolonging the issue long after it's left the area.

They can't say exactly where but portions of southern of Louisiana are likely going to face disastrous flooding. They should absolutely be warning people in the area and preparing a respobse.

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