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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

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Trey3216
Trey3216

It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

Loco
Loco

May god have mercy on your soles!

HeHateMe
HeHateMe

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

So TS Barry is a bust?

No bodies in trees?

Well, yes and no.

Yes in that the OMG END OF THE WORLD STORM CATEGORY 285 WINDS OF 9,000 MILES/SEC and all that shit is enough to make me throw my Zima at the TV.  Fucking sensationalist press fuckers.  This thing was never supposed to ramp up to 20X Katrina evil power, etc.  So fuck them.

On the other hand, in any other situation Barry would be a fart in the wind (pun intended).  But:  1) NOLA is a lay-back-and-take-the-rape so terribly situated and perpetuated (by historical politics which bend over backwards to keep the Mississippi flowing past it when it doesn't want to) that ANY breeze with drizzle can be catastrophic.  If this thing landed in Corpus or Tampa or whatever, yawn.  Windy rainy day, some minor flooding.  But in NOLA it's still possible to fuck up a lot of people, because NOLA gonna NOLA.  And 2) this one just happens to be moving up the Mississippi, exactly where it can be far worse since the Mississippi basin is currently heavily in flood due to all the spring rains.  If the rain corridor of 20"+moves up the river, it's going to really fuck up already flooded flatlands in MS, LA, AR, and TN.  Probably not tons of deaths but a lot of damage and flooded areas well into fall.

So it's a mild storm (yeah, even with the large rains, as they're very narrow in scope) that is still potentially bad due to present conditions where it is/is likely to be.  Go figure.

Edited by phdhorn
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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Good Lord, these idiot D squad reporters for the Weather Channel are killing me.  Trying to pack 71 adjectives into a sentence and continually getting tongue twisted.   

Talking about “because of how deep the water in the Mississippi right now with the Midwest flooding”.   Breh, we know the river is deep, but right now the river is referred to as high, not deep. 

It’s cold too.  

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Good Lord, these idiot D squad reporters for the Weather Channel are killing me.  Trying to pack 71 adjectives into a sentence and continually getting tongue twisted.   

Talking about “because of how deep the water in the Mississippi right now with the Midwest flooding”.   Breh, we know the river is deep, but right now the river is referred to as high, not deep. 

It’s cold too.  

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:


Boss just told me I need to be there Wednesday.

Asking for volunteers from work.  Haha.  My two partners are on vacation.  I ain’t going anywhere.

 

Fuck hurricanes.    If it had hit farther west and any of my h-town peeps were involved, I’d be asking to go.  I ain’t doing it for people at work who I don’t know.  You'll always get put on some shit detail and they'll be generally unappreciative.

Nope...

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Etexhorn13

Etexhorn13 3045

Posted
Posted (edited)

I have several friends and a brother in law that live in NO that have been saying pretty much all weekend this was a big nothing burger. Obviously some areas got some water but man, they (national news etc) talked about this sucker like it was going to Harvey all over N.O.

Edited by Etexhorn13
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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5537

Posted
Posted

Did Katrina Part II flood New Orleans and send humanity to Houston?

Nope. Media and NOAA generated nothing burger. What’s the story line about the boy who cried wolf again?

Once upon a time these weak hurricanes or strong tropical storms were just another excuse to go out and hit the surf if you were a big wave surfer and play in the rain. Now they require 24/7 news coverage, an immediate FEMA response and National Guard deployments.

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Dewey

Dewey 3286

Posted
Posted

Yeah and once upon a time there wasnt all this technology and all these forecasters. I hate the over the top analysis, but I also get that these storms are huge and hard to predict. On one hand it isnt good to say "no biggie for you, you might want to keep watering the yard"  and on the other hand, they need to not tell the entire gulf coast to pucker up. 

Good news for.me is that I got all my plywood cut and ready to board up when the next one hits.

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

There's no doubt that Katrina left a scar on the way we approach hurricanes.  I agree that storms are unpredictable and can be far worse than forecast (hello Harvey!) - or far tamer.  Katrina was a once-in-100 year alignment of most of the worst possible scenarios for a populated hit - including the veering to the NE when it did so (veering to the NW would have made a huge difference).

In the diarrhea of obsessive critique that followed, and somewhat bouyed by Sandy, now the press realizes that 1) hurricanes mean eyeballs, and 2) this means to go full bullshit overhype.  The problem is that the 1-2 storms out of 20 that justify it result in "boy cries wolf" of the other 18.  I never, ever, ever, watch Weather Channel, CNN, or any of the other shit prestorm, because it's nothing but an overhype.  It might, but most likely, won't happen that badly.  But it gets ridiculous.

I think there's another component to it which I will merely skim over because it's political.  I believe that a lot of this prehype is done to set up the politician for "failure".. you know, we warned you  but you did nothing.   Again, criticism generates interest (not mine) so the press has come to rely on an accusatory tone, which by and large is unrealistic at best and asinine on average.

Now, while this storm had every chance of getting bad (training rain, going over NOLA which is pretty much a guarantee of disaster, falling in the Mississippi basin which is already flooded, etc.) as it turns out, as pros predicted all along, it was a fairly weak storm.  As it turns out, the heavy rain patterns have been narrow and relatively small.  Which is exactly what a storm of this magnitude almost always does.  It's been comical watching, with every day's non-events, the press moving onto the next "probable disaster".  Today, in the wake of almost no real widespread problems, the threat is "snakes and other creatures".  Sure, but it's not like the Eighth Biblical Plague.  Nothing beyond normal.

Like I said, this storm had the potential to be worse than average, but quite simply it never materialized, and it turned out to be an almost textbook borderline Cat 1 hurricane.  And yes, some people lost belongings or there was damage, that's going to happen.  But it's almost that the press has tried their asses off to make this a disaster story when it simply isn't (at least on a massive scale).  And the danger in doing so is that yeah, it puts people to sleep for the one that could be terrible.  To me it's irresponsible and frankly amateurish when these dumbasses who have no background get on there and say shit to bait the pros they have on there, like "potentially we could see New Orleans flood so that like everyone will die.  Isn't this possible?  

As a rule, I would always stick FIRST to the pros (and even NHC tends to overhype a bit) rather than get my news about these things from dumbasses at Fox or CNN.  And of course yeah, today's tech age has shit coming at us 24/7 (GOD how I miss the days when this wasn't so regarding hurricanes).  For the most part, these are unpredictable events and some amount of widespread warning is in order.  But this insane attempt to hype shit up for viewer/readership is absolute bullshit.

 

tl;dr:  hurricanes can be bad, usually aren't terrible, media sucks shit through a straw.

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5537

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

There's no doubt that Katrina left a scar on the way we approach hurricanes.  I agree that storms are unpredictable and can be far worse than forecast (hello Harvey!) - or far tamer.  Katrina was a once-in-100 year alignment of most of the worst possible scenarios for a populated hit - including the veering to the NE when it did so (veering to the NW would have made a huge difference).

In the diarrhea of obsessive critique that followed, and somewhat bouyed by Sandy, now the press realizes that 1) hurricanes mean eyeballs, and 2) this means to go full bullshit overhype.  The problem is that the 1-2 storms out of 20 that justify it result in "boy cries wolf" of the other 18.  I never, ever, ever, watch Weather Channel, CNN, or any of the other shit prestorm, because it's nothing but an overhype.  It might, but most likely, won't happen that badly.  But it gets ridiculous.

I think there's another component to it which I will merely skim over because it's political.  I believe that a lot of this prehype is done to set up the politician for "failure".. you know, we warned you  but you did nothing.   Again, criticism generates interest (not mine) so the press has come to rely on an accusatory tone, which by and large is unrealistic at best and asinine on average.

Now, while this storm had every chance of getting bad (training rain, going over NOLA which is pretty much a guarantee of disaster, falling in the Mississippi basin which is already flooded, etc.) as it turns out, as pros predicted all along, it was a fairly weak storm.  As it turns out, the heavy rain patterns have been narrow and relatively small.  Which is exactly what a storm of this magnitude almost always does.  It's been comical watching, with every day's non-events, the press moving onto the next "probable disaster".  Today, in the wake of almost no real widespread problems, the threat is "snakes and other creatures".  Sure, but it's not like the Eighth Biblical Plague.  Nothing beyond normal.

Like I said, this storm had the potential to be worse than average, but quite simply it never materialized, and it turned out to be an almost textbook borderline Cat 1 hurricane.  And yes, some people lost belongings or there was damage, that's going to happen.  But it's almost that the press has tried their asses off to make this a disaster story when it simply isn't (at least on a massive scale).  And the danger in doing so is that yeah, it puts people to sleep for the one that could be terrible.  To me it's irresponsible and frankly amateurish when these dumbasses who have no background get on there and say shit to bait the pros they have on there, like "potentially we could see New Orleans flood so that like everyone will die.  Isn't this possible?  

As a rule, I would always stick FIRST to the pros (and even NHC tends to overhype a bit) rather than get my news about these things from dumbasses at Fox or CNN.  And of course yeah, today's tech age has shit coming at us 24/7 (GOD how I miss the days when this wasn't so regarding hurricanes).  For the most part, these are unpredictable events and some amount of widespread warning is in order.  But this insane attempt to hype shit up for viewer/readership is absolute bullshit.

 

tl;dr:  hurricanes can be bad, usually aren't terrible, media sucks shit through a straw.

This is exactly the reason.   And it started with Rita after Katrina hit the same season.   I mean good grief the whole coast from Sabine Pass to Brownsville was told to get out for that one and people died during the evacuation too.   And that is when I really started following  private meteorologist on their own websites and ones who post on message boards such as Storm2K because many were saying the only part of the Texas coast who had a real chance to be impacted was the Sabine Pass area.   Thus I stayed put while 100k plus Corpus Christi residents split town.     Same thing with Ike  that hit Galveston a couple of years later.  

On the flip side with Harvey a few years ago, many were spot on with the track and rapid intensification.  But the warnings about it possibly becoming the weather event with flooding rains was caught later in forecast projections.   

NOAA and NWS will overhype everything now for the simple reason the Feds caught a bunch of the blame for the Katrina mess in regards to the human suffering, etc.   Although those of us who have lived on the coast our whole lives know it's the Local and State who are in charge of getting people out flood prone zones and the areas which might get the worse wind damage.   The Feds/FEMA are supposed to come in AFTER the storm.   Thanks to Katrina and for better or worse,  FEMA now gets to play a bigger role in pre storm planning.    So if the NWS and NOAA can help the process along to keep people from becoming the next guy walking through flood waters with a plastic container full Heineken,   I get it.    But eventually if it hasn't already in some hurricane prone zones, people are going to think the Big Wolf Government  is just blowing a bunch of hot air and start taking these warnings as non sense.  

 

 

Edited by Nueces River Rat
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Armybrat

Armybrat 40822

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 7/15/2019 at 10:45 AM, phdhorn said:

In the diarrhea of obsessive critique that followed, and somewhat bouyed by Sandy, now the press realizes that 1) hurricanes mean eyeballs, and 2) this means to go full bullshit overhype. 

tl;dr:  hurricanes can be bad, usually aren't terrible, media sucks shit through a straw.

*suck

Edited by Armybrat
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Armybrat said:

*suck

Half right.

 

"Media"when referring to variety of communications mediums is a plural noun.

"Media" when referencing "mass media"(sometimes the "mass" is inferred and not present) is a collective noun and is treated as a singular.

I was using the second of these forms.

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5537

Posted
Posted
On 8/15/2019 at 9:04 AM, miguelito said:

If the models are predicting a Corpus landfall at this point, I think we can rule out Corpus as the landfall location.

Correct.   More like going to Louisiana or Tampico IF it even comes to this.     

These models predicting things like this so far out are kind of like the winter models predicting snow and ice for the majority of Texas in December and January.    Sometimes they have massive blizzards which would put the east coast storms to shame.  What happens two weeks later?   Temps in the 60's and 70's and a bunch of us bitching we can't use our fricken fireplace..    Once in a while they get it correct like the historic Christmas snow we got back in 2004.  

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Hate

Hate 20106

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

 

That yellow X could be what the models are looking at for the Corpus Christi threat. NHC says it's headed toward Florida and then the SE US. 

No, that "threat" is near the Yucatan and about to be in the Bay of Campeche.  It's still not even organized enough for the NHC to call it an invest and isn't forecast to do so.  The latest models have most of the rain in East Texas and West Louisiana, but some models are shifting a little further west. 

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Lat22

Lat22 4010

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

no impact on us, but interesting it is so far north. Anyone know what the water temps up there are? 

two_atl_0d0.png?210232

There was no reason to burn a name on this "storm".  The weather people are just trying to make their predictions more accurate.

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