Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Democracy doesn’t work in the Middle East well because religion gets in the way too much.  They’ll elect a Muslim cleric and boom, full blown theocratic authoritarianism. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[suddenly shaggy 929]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Democracy doesn’t work in the Middle East well because religion gets in the way too much.  They’ll elect a Muslim cleric and boom, full blown theocratic authoritarianism. 

Or we could chill the fuck out while the younger generations in Iran gain more influence and let them topple it from within, which is happening now and will stop cold if we go to war with them.  

[Anastasis 23469]

Self determination is only acceptable if the result is compatible with Western ideals.  Namely, cash money. 

[David Dennison 18853]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Self determination is only acceptable if the result is compatible with Western ideals.  Namely, cash money. 

No one is allowed to elect communists or socialists.

[elfenix 34230]

Or we could chill the fuck out while the younger generations in Iran gain more influence and let them topple it from within, which is happening now and will stop cold if we go to war with them.  

We'd have to refrain from overthrowing that government because we *think* it serves our right this minute concerns to do so.

[triplehorn 2664]

28 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

I'm genuinely curious to see what would happen to oil prices if a real war broke out with Iran. Obviously it would go up, but I'm ignorant to how much it would shoot up. Does our increased domestic production insulate WTI index from the OPEC basket? If so, to what extent? 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I gather just under 25% of the global crude oil produced per day ships through the Strait of Hormuz out to the rest of the world (18M of ~83M barrels per day).  Imagine almost a quarter of daily global oil supply getting shut off by Iran.  Now combine that with the ongoing impact of Trump tariffs on American businesses.  Iran wouldn't have to fire a single shot at a US person, ship, plane, or armor to economically bring us to our knees.  Provoking a military conflict with Iran is self immolation before a single US military is killed in action.

But look, with poll numbers what they are, and the existential threat to the entire Trump family that losing in 2020 represents, why the fuck not ?!  Someone here think that Trump will allow anyone to come out of this better than him, i.e. alive and not dying in jail broke ?  

[hpslugga 4058]

20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Democracy doesn’t work in the Middle East well because religion gets in the way too much.  They’ll elect a Muslim cleric and boom, full blown theocratic authoritarianism. 

Democracy doesn’t work there because we (and Europe) historically have not wanted it to and never have. When they dabbled in it, whether it was Mossadegh in Iran, Nasser in Egypt, Atatürk in Turkey, etc, it’s always been stiffly opposed by the West and the primary driver has always been economic conflicts of interests.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Democracy doesn’t work there because we (and Europe) historically have not wanted it to and never have. When they dabbled in it, whether it was Mossadegh in Iran, Nasser in Egypt, Atatürk in Turkey, etc, it’s always been stiffly opposed by the West and the primary driver has always been economic conflicts of interests.

This is true.  It’s more challenging to make long term goals and establish solid mutual strategic interests when the government keeps changing every few years. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Self determination is only acceptable if the result is compatible with Western ideals.  Namely, cash money. 

[Brisketexan 105094]

18 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Democracy doesn’t work there because we (and Europe) historically have not wanted it to and never have. When they dabbled in it, whether it was Mossadegh in Iran, Nasser in Egypt, Atatürk in Turkey, etc, it’s always been stiffly opposed by the West and the primary driver has always been economic conflicts of interests.

 

14 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is true.  It’s more challenging to make long term goals and establish solid mutual strategic interests when the government keeps changing every few years. 

 

3 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The most American value of all is our belief in the right of all people to determine their own future.  The right of self-determination is a sacred human right, and trumps all else.*

 

* This offer void if the exercise of that self determination puts a people on a path that does not serve our economic interests.  Any rebroadcast of this offer without the express written consent of Major League Baseball is strictly prohibited. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

This is the part where we admit we don’t live up to our values well. 

[Brisketexan 105094]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the part where we admit we don’t live up to our values well. 

It should be the part where we acknowledge that our "values" are a lie meant to conceal our venality.  We only support our values when they coincide with our venality.

[David Dennison 18853]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the part where we admit we don’t live up to our values well. 

Those values are the result of a public relations campaign dreamed up by corporations and the government in an effort to encourage Americans to spend money.

The American Dream was concocted in a board room.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It should be the part where we acknowledge that our "values" are a lie meant to conceal our venality.  We only support our values when they coincide with our venality.

It’s the old realism vs idealism paradox when it comes to foreign policy.  

We should be operating under idealism where our decision making is led by our values.  

But the temptation to realism and looking at the world as a chess board with economic and geopolitical interests is far too strong. 

[Anastasis 23469]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the part where we admit we don’t live up to our values well. 

This should be the part where we admit what our real values are. 

[WhatTheBuck 28776]

3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Someone upthread brilliantly dubbed it "Gulf of Trumpkin" 

I believe that was a tweet from Bill Kristol. 

[bad_teammate 13193]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Democracy doesn’t work in the Middle East well because religion gets in the way too much.  They’ll elect a Muslim cleric and boom, full blown theocratic authoritarianism. 

Hi Ben Shapiro welcome to our website it's so nice to have you

[Brisketexan 105094]

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

This should be the part where we admit what our real values are. 

Pescado already posted those.

31 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

[atomheartbevo 89644]

2 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

I'm genuinely curious to see what would happen to oil prices if a real war broke out with Iran. Obviously it would go up, but I'm ignorant to how much it would shoot up. Does our increased domestic production insulate WTI index from the OPEC basket? If so, to what extent? 

There was something like 550 commercial vehicles damaged or sunk during the Tanker Wars of the 80s. I would imagine that things would be much worse now, as in tankers sunk.  

[atomheartbevo 89644]

DP

Edited June 18, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[gmr548 16576]

8 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I've long believed that Trump would start a war in order to get re-elected, but I think Fozzz and Roma are right. A conflict with Iran will be poorly received by the vast majority of Americans. 

 

 

It will be well received by the 35-40 percent who worship Trump and everything he says and does, even when they are in direct contradiction of one another (usually). Since he lives for praise from this group, I would expect a shooting war.

[Lagunamadre 1975]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

There was something like 550 commercial vehicles damaged or sunk during the Tanker Wars of the 80s. I would imagine that things would be much worse now, as in tankers sunk.  

I don't doubt it. I'm just curious to see if we would be relatively protected because of domestic production. Without researching, I would imagine we are materially less reliant on foreign oil today than we were in the 1980's. Obviously unlike NG, it is a global commodity, but I'd be curious to read some predictions on how certain oil indices would be affected in relation to each other should there be a disruption in the strait. 

[bolverk 29659]

 

 

 

6 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Given a choice between having 1000 innocent Americans or 1000 innocent Swedes die. I'd choose the Swedes for death. I expect a Swede would choose the opposite.

Are we including dirt burglars, aggy, & roll tide among those Americans (Chitowndoc, Retread, Bamachick, and Bamachine notwithstanding)?

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

1 hour ago, Lagunamadre said:

I don't doubt it. I'm just curious to see if we would be relatively protected because of domestic production. Without researching, I would imagine we are materially less reliant on foreign oil today than we were in the 1980's. Obviously unlike NG, it is a global commodity, but I'd be curious to read some predictions on how certain oil indices would be affected in relation to each other should there be a disruption in the strait. 

Commander dipshit would tap the SPR and flood the market to keep prices down...which would work until they ran low and we still couldn't keep the strait open. Once that well runs dry, the 80's will seem like the good old days. 

[RomaVicta 29905]

39 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Are we including dirt burglars, aggy, & roll tide among those Americans (Chitowndoc, Retread, Bamachick, and Bamachine notwithstanding)?

Well, in that case, I'd have to go with Charlie.

[atomheartbevo 89644]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

It will be well received by the 35-40 percent who worship Trump and everything he says and does, even when they are in direct contradiction of one another (usually). Since he lives for praise from this group, I would expect a shooting war.

TexAgs and Free Republic are ready for war with Iran, and are coming up with all kinds of justifications.   There’s your representative of the 35-40% who worship Dear Leader.  

But that group also seems to include a high ratio of people with gas-guzzling vehicles, so how long they can tolerate gas going up several bucks, before they have to choose between skipping their thrice-weekly trips to the Piggly Wiggly for some smokes and Natty Light, and Momma’s insulin, remains to be seen. 

[atomheartbevo 89644]

1 hour ago, Lagunamadre said:

I don't doubt it. I'm just curious to see if we would be relatively protected because of domestic production. Without researching, I would imagine we are materially less reliant on foreign oil today than we were in the 1980's. Obviously unlike NG, it is a global commodity, but I'd be curious to read some predictions on how certain oil indices would be affected in relation to each other should there be a disruption in the strait. 

Like Pescado said, Trump would tap into our reserves once his new pollsters lose their shit (and their jobs) after seeing how unpopular a huge rise in gas prices would be, so the typical American will be fucked.  

And that’s in a vacuum.  Factor in Trump’s desire for a trade war with a couple of countries and some extra-high tariffs, and let’s see where that leaves us.   When Wall Street starts tanking, the Mercers won’t be the only rich folks dumping Trump.  The Dem candidate will be rolling in campaign and PAC money, with only a simple promise of ending the and trade fuckups.

Edited June 19, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89644]

Imagine how Trump would handle somebody like Cindy Sheehan.  W is a piece of shit because of Iraq, but at least he was willing to acknowledge she had a right to grieve.  

[Bruh Man 3160]

11 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

I'm genuinely curious to see what would happen to oil prices if a real war broke out with Iran. Obviously it would go up, but I'm ignorant to how much it would shoot up. Does our increased domestic production insulate WTI index from the OPEC basket? If so, to what extent? 

You have to understand that Iran has been planning for this conflict since 1979. They have sophisticated equipment and proxies all over the ME. The moment a bomb lands on Iranian soil, Iran will fire all of their ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure & activate their Shia proxies in those countries. That's 20+ million barrels per day lost. The global economy would tank & you're looking at $500/barrel. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

20 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

You have to understand that Iran has been planning for this conflict since 1979. They have sophisticated equipment and proxies all over the ME. The moment a bomb lands on Iranian soil, Iran will fire all of their ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure & activate their Shia proxies in those countries. That's 20+ million barrels per day lost. The global economy would tank & you're looking at $500/barrel. 

Bullshit.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

TexAgs and Free Republic are ready for war with Iran, and are coming up with all kinds of justifications.

I'm all for letting them head over and fight this war they are so in favor of.  Hopefully they all get killed.

[hpslugga 4058]

2 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

You have to understand that Iran has been planning for this conflict since 1979. They have sophisticated equipment and proxies all over the ME. The moment a bomb lands on Iranian soil, Iran will fire all of their ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure & activate their Shia proxies in those countries. That's 20+ million barrels per day lost. The global economy would tank & you're looking at $500/barrel. 

That’s an interesting dream

[CooterBrown 18005]

You have to understand that Iran has been planning for this conflict since 1979. They have sophisticated equipment and proxies all over the ME. The moment a bomb lands on Iranian soil, Iran will fire all of their ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure & activate their Shia proxies in those countries. That's 20+ million barrels per day lost. The global economy would tank & you're looking at $500/barrel. 

 

They’ll just fire everything they have at Israel. Better to be remembered as the nation that wiped out the Jews than just a flyover stop on ‘Merica’s War World Tour.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

 

They’ll just fire everything they have at Israel. Better to be remembered as the nation that wiped out the Jews than just a flyover stop on ‘Merica’s War World Tour.

WWIII begins

[Fozzz 152]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

 

They’ll just fire everything they have at Israel. Better to be remembered as the nation that wiped out the Jews than just a flyover stop on ‘Merica’s War World Tour.

Quite bigoted post.  No, they will attack Saudi Arabia.  

[Lagunamadre 1975]

5 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

You have to understand that Iran has been planning for this conflict since 1979. They have sophisticated equipment and proxies all over the ME. The moment a bomb lands on Iranian soil, Iran will fire all of their ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure & activate their Shia proxies in those countries. That's 20+ million barrels per day lost. The global economy would tank & you're looking at $500/barrel. 

I think that might be a bit of an overreach. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

5 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

You have to understand that Iran has been planning for this conflict since 1979. They have sophisticated equipment and proxies all over the ME. The moment a bomb lands on Iranian soil, Iran will fire all of their ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure & activate their Shia proxies in those countries. That's 20+ million barrels per day lost. The global economy would tank & you're looking at $500/barrel. 

[CooterBrown 18005]

3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Quite bigoted post.  No, they will attack Saudi Arabia.  

Should've led with "In their point of view..."

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

so do we think @Iconoclast Texan is in favor of bombing the shit out of Iran or nah?

[Captainant 27647]

6 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

so do we think @Iconoclast Texan is in favor of bombing the shit out of Iran or nah?

Well he's pretty self-hating, so he's probably in favor of bombing the shit of out Iran.

[RomaVicta 29905]

I wonder if the threat to the oil supply means that Trump could gather a coalition. Hard to believe any country of substance will follow his lead.

Maybe that means somebody else would lead a coalition if the shortage of oil became acute enough. I guess a coalition could work just to keep the straits open and not participate in attacks on Iran proper.

Maybe we'd have to go it alone. That's a tall order. Too bad Trump decided the Iraq agreement was terrible and pulled out to the cheers of his idiot followers.

This is all crazy.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

So Shia Iran is now closely allied with Sunni Al-Queda and simultaneously fighting against them in Syria.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

11 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I wonder if the threat to the oil supply means that Trump could gather a coalition. Hard to believe any country of substance will follow his lead.

Maybe that means somebody else would lead a coalition if the shortage of oil became acute enough. I guess a coalition could work just to keep the straits open and not participate in attacks on Iran proper.

Maybe we'd have to go it alone. That's a tall order. Too bad Trump decided the Iraq agreement was terrible and pulled out to the cheers of his idiot followers.

This is all crazy.

I see this as stealth saber rattling. I don't think we're invading Iran.  Trump doesn't seem like a hawk, he's more like a chicken hawk.

[triplehorn 2664]

9 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I wonder if the threat to the oil supply means that Trump could gather a coalition. Hard to believe any country of substance will follow his lead.

Maybe that means somebody else would lead a coalition if the shortage of oil became acute enough. I guess a coalition could work just to keep the straits open and not participate in attacks on Iran proper.

Maybe we'd have to go it alone. That's a tall order. Too bad Trump decided the Iraq agreement was terrible and pulled out to the cheers of his idiot followers.

This is all crazy.

After withdrawing from the global climate accord and joint monitoring of Iran's nuclear program, the rest of the western civilized world is moving on from Trump.  There will be no coalition.

 

[RomaVicta 29905]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

I see this as stealth saber rattling. I don't think we're invading Iran.  Trump doesn't seem like a hawk, he's more like a chicken hawk.

He's almost certainly trying to generate an emergency situation to get the $8 Billion arms sale around congress. Maybe that will be enough to stop the saber rattling.

These things, thought, sometimes take on a life of their own. Say, Iran decides that they can sway international opinion about themselves if they lure the US into attacking. Maybe they can get all sanctions lifted from other countries and make the US a genuine pariah. 

That's just an example of how we don't control all the motivations and the actions of others. What does Saudi want? Israel? Russia?

Thank goodness we've got a stable genius at the helm!

[triplehorn 2664]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I see this as stealth saber rattling. I don't think we're invading Iran.  Trump doesn't seem like a hawk, he's more like a chicken hawk.

Even if Trunp's conduct is intended to extort something in exchange for rational behavior, it's beyond dangerous and irresponsible.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, RomaVicta said:

He's almost certainly trying to generate an emergency situation to get the $8 Billion arms sale around congress. Maybe that will be enough to stop the saber rattling.

These things, thought, sometimes take on a life of their own. Say, Iran decides that they can sway international opinion about themselves if they lure the US into attacking. Maybe they can get all sanctions lifted from other countries and make the US a genuine pariah. 

That's just an example of how we don't control all the motivations and the actions of others. What does Saudi want? Israel? Russia?

Thank goodness we've got a stable genius at the helm!

Yeah that could be it as well.  I don't think Trump is a war guy, he's a business man, blood is a big expense. He ain't a genius, but he does know how to wheel and deal. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, triplehorn said:

Even if Trunp's conduct is intended to extort something in exchange for rational behavior, it's beyond dangerous and irresponsible.  

Not gonna get an argument from me.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

11 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I see this as stealth saber rattling. I don't think we're invading Iran.  Trump doesn't seem like a hawk, he's more like a chicken hawk.

Yeah I may just be a Chamberlain, but I can't imagine a real shooting war with Iran.

[Longhornfan1024 1707]

14 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah that could be it as well.  I don't think Trump is a war guy, he's a business man, blood is a big expense. He ain't a genius, but he does know how to wheel and deal. 

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!  That's the best joke I've seen all day.  Good one, Onboard.