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the alabama abortion attack

hayden_horn

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11362

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/15/us/alabama-abortion-facts-law-bill.html

fair warning, this is long. tl;dr, i think this battle may be won by republicans, but the victory will be pyrrhic. 

this is clearly the republican gambit to overturn roe v wade, and it has been festering for the past half decade or so in statehouses as they pass various copycat anti-abortion bills. now that they view that they have a conservative majority on the supreme court, they are pushing their chips in.

i'm not super interested in litigating the pro-life vs pro-choice aspects of this issue in this thread, though i know that will comprise some of the discussion here.

what i'm most interested in are the societal impact, the legal ramifications, and the political ramifications of this abortion endgame for republicans.

for societal impact, i think this could have an adverse impact on public funding for basic medical women''s services. you can view planned parenthood as an avenue to abortion, but they provide a shit ton of other services, and i do not think that can be denied. this will affect primarily lower class women and single women who do not have health insurance. if republicans cared about women but also cared about abortion, then why do they not focus some funding on these other medical functions?  so what happens to society if roe is pulled? do we have more babies? do we fund birth control education? republicans are all over the map on this front, even if i take many pro-life people in my life seriously on their stance. i've said for years: if we want to eliminate abortion we need to focus on eliminating unwanted pregnancies. and that means more education, and more focus on getting birth control in the right hands. but for republicans in general, i do not feel that the goal is reducing unwanted pregnancies. the goal is to stick it to the libs. more on that her in a bit.

for legal impact, i will elave it to yall more versed in the law than i am as to whether this alabama law can pass SC muster. i'm definitely interested in that.

for political impact, republicans really seem like they are hitching their wagon to the old white people crowd, and they don't care about losing an entire generation of voters. this is because, and i really believe this, the entire republican caucus, on both a state and a federal level, consists of old white men and women. they do not get he youth of today, and i think that if they succeed in this end around on roe, young people will wake up and vote in numbers not seen since the late 60s, which has some irony, because the roe decision was in 1973, and arguably a result of young political activism from 1966 on:

1024px-Voting_Trends_by_Race_and_Age.jpg

more recent evidence suggests that the 2018 midterms saw a massive spike in youth turnout - up to 31%:

https://civicyouth.org/young-people-dramatically-increase-their-turnout-31-percent-shape-2018-midterm-elections/

square that with a shifting voting demographic:

FT_16.05.13_eligibleMillennialVoters.png

i think it makes perfect sense that the republicans think this is possibly their last chance to get this done. i'm not sure if they are really after success, or if they are after the argument, but in many minds, the court is 5-4 weighted toward conservatives. for a long time, i thought that this was merely red meat for the base, and i still kind of think that. but now actual action is taking place, and i'm wondering how this politically affects the republicans. i thought trump would sink the republicans, but they are holding strong with him. i keep seeing the end of the republican party, and i think i'm right, even if i'm wrong on the timeline. take a look at this:

190515114248-20190514-alabama-senate-abo

old. white. dudes. that is the electorate that the republicans are courting, and that is the form that the representation takes. i still think politically, the republicans are whistling pass the graveyard. as a matter of act, by choosing this very moment to engage could spell a generational change in the balance of power, resulting in 20 years or so of far more progressive polices.

any thoughts?

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WhatTheBuck
WhatTheBuck

A 20-year-old in Alabama in 1969 didn't need a tv to see that. 

Bama Chick
Bama Chick

Someone asked one of the bill authors why they didn’t include a punishment for the destruction of embryos in labs if this is about saving all “babies”. He said since it’s not in a woman it doesn’t co

Pancho
Pancho

Fuck Alabama and those inbred fucksticks

hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11362

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3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

A lot of truth in your post, but one caveat - those old white dudes of today were 20 year olds in 1969.

People change and tend to go to the right as they get older.

i see your point, but i refute it. a lot of them were okies from muskogee, and i think that demographic is shrinking.  millenials are VERY different from boomers.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23464

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Counterproductive to addressing abortion in a meaningful way, and one more reason that the GOP will trend towards national irrelevance in future.  Will give sufficient cover and justification to court packing schemes post 2021, assuming Democrats can take back the Senate. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105087

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20 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

this is clearly the republican gambit to overturn roe v wade, and it has been festering for the past half decade or so in statehouses as they pass various copycat anti-abortion bills. now that they view that they have a conservative majority on the supreme court, they are pushing their chips in.

You are right about this.

But here's the problem with putting all your chips in when you think you have the cards: you can still lose if the other side's hand is better.

Yeah, "but Gorsuch, but Kavanaugh," I get it.  But really and truly, do we think that they are BOTH going to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade?  If not, that's a big problem -- you really only get one shot at trying to completely overturn a landmark case like that.  The Alabama law is an all-in attempt at doing that.  What it may well result in is a SCOTUS decision affirming that Roe v. Wade remains the law of the land.  Once that happens, they anti-abortion game in the courts is over.

No, there are no guarantees.  The conservative wing might say "fuck it, we've got 5 votes, let's reverse that bitch and be done with it."  But Roberts has shown no inclination to do so, and he has been on the court for several abortion cases when he could have dissented and stated his position in that respect.

"We're going to tee the question of abortion up for the SCOTUS!"  Okay.   Be careful what you wish for.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89632

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16 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

A lot of truth in your post, but one caveat - those old white dudes of today were 20 year olds in 1969.

People change and tend to go to the right as they get older.

A 20 year-old in 2019 had a black President for almost half his life, grew up in a society where minorities mostly dominated sports, and openly gay actors were in some of the most popular TV shows and movies.  And that 20 year-old has had instant access to porn on his phone since he got his first smartphone.  

Times have definitely changed.  

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11362

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Of course, a 20 year-old on 2019 has also witnessed the most popular show on TV openly featuring brother/sister incest and aunt/nephew incest

A 20 year-old in Alabama in 1969 could only dream about such a thing.   

also, think about a 20 year old woman in 1969 vs a 20 year old woman today.

 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28775

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Of course, a 20 year-old on 2019 has also witnessed the most popular show on TV openly featuring brother/sister incest and aunt/nephew incest

A 20 year-old in Alabama in 1969 could only dream about such a thing.   

A 20-year-old in Alabama in 1969 didn't need a tv to see that. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28775

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16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You are right about this.

But here's the problem with putting all your chips in when you think you have the cards: you can still lose if the other side's hand is better.

Yeah, "but Gorsuch, but Kavanaugh," I get it.  But really and truly, do we think that they are BOTH going to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade?  If not, that's a big problem -- you really only get one shot at trying to completely overturn a landmark case like that.  The Alabama law is an all-in attempt at doing that.  What it may well result in is a SCOTUS decision affirming that Roe v. Wade remains the law of the land.  Once that happens, they anti-abortion game in the courts is over.

No, there are no guarantees.  The conservative wing might say "fuck it, we've got 5 votes, let's reverse that bitch and be done with it."  But Roberts has shown no inclination to do so, and he has been on the court for several abortion cases when he could have dissented and stated his position in that respect.

"We're going to tee the question of abortion up for the SCOTUS!"  Okay.   Be careful what you wish for.

I have a hard time believing this case will even make it as far as the Supreme Court. When Pat Fucking Robertson speaks out against your abortion law, you have to consider that maybe you went too far. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28775

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1 minute ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I hope everyone of these assclowns' daughters get impregnated by a big black man.

Fuck them.

They should get raped and impregnated by MS-13. Then the rapists can pay their fathers their 50 shekels of silver and then marry the victims. As the bible commands. 

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TexasMan

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4 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I have a hard time believing this case will even make it as far as the Supreme Court. When Pat Fucking Robertson speaks out against your abortion law, you have to consider that maybe you went too far. 

Came here to post the same thing. This shit is so stupid and dangerous. 

 

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TexArcher

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A Quinnipiac poll from last year showed 63% agreed with the Roe v Wade decision and 31% disagreed.

Another poll by Kaiser Family Foundation showed 67% thought Roe should stand, while 29% thought it should be overturned.

And they're gonna repeal it anyway.

Representative democracy my ass.

 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29903

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I finally read about the Dred Scott case as part of reading the remarkable book, A Team of Rivals. Overturning Roe v. Wade will rank with that decision, in my non-lawyer opinion.

Quote

Dred Scott decision, formally Dred Scott v. John F.A. Sandford, legal case in which the U.S. Supreme Court on March 6, 1857, ruled (7–2) that a slave (Dred Scott) who had resided in a free state and territory (where slavery was prohibited) was not thereby entitled to his freedom; that African Americans were not and could never be citizens of the United States; 

Women are not equal citizens if the state can rule over the insides of their bodies. It's that simple to me. Wherever government power stops, it certainly can't go inside the skin.

I've also read over the years that Roe v Wade is a cowardly solution to the problem of a legislative branch too chicken to vote on the matter. This sort of fits my old model about the two parties. The Republicans are wicked and the Dems are weak.

The GOP was evil to turn this into a partisan issue to grab up the fundamentalists.

The Dems can't stop hiding behind a court case and pass the law. Make the case for the liberty of citizens including females. If you lose your seat, at least you did what you thought was right. Never happen

If I made predictions, I'd likely predict that women will rise up and destroy the GOP, but I'm regularly wrong about what the public wants or will do. Idiot world is hard to forecast. Even when things break your way, it's usually for an Idiot World reason rather than actual reason.

"We're saving babies!!!!" may win out over "What the fuck do you think you're doing telling me what to do?!?!?!"

I hope this is a contribution to the discussion.

 

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freyguy

freyguy 4265

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I understand how this can be scary, and in a bad TV movie it could come to fruition.  But I don't see it happening.  The Supreme Court will whip out its big Federal dick and tell Alabama to step in line with the rest of the states.  They can vote to change the color of the moon, but it won't mean shit. 

It's one thing for a state to want to regulate sales of commerce (state-specific gun, drug, weed & alcohol laws), but the Supreme Court will fuck them for attempting to make a state-specific change to a female U.S. citizen's current right on her body.  Especially when the other 49 have not given any intention of siding with.

This may actually get me to vote Democratic...sheesh.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29348

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This will probably get enjoined and SCOTUS will refuse to grant cert, and a lot of people will go “see all that fearmongering over the GOP packing the courts was wrong!” Then SCOTUS will grant cert for a case challenging Ohio’s law, or Georgia’s law, or some other states’s prohibition on abortion that doesn’t sentence women to 99 years in prison if they violate it, and they’ll find that requiring abortion before a woman even knows she’s pregnant is not an undue burden.

This law is the GOP’s opportunity to tell everyone “see we’re not literally the Christian taliban.” That doesn’t mean Roe is safe.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2097

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2 hours ago, hayden_horn said:

i see your point, but i refute it. a lot of them were okies from muskogee, and i think that demographic is shrinking.  millenials are VERY different from boomers.

As a millennial, if be very okay with getting rid of abortion except if mothers life is in danger. I don't see how if think if it's a life then even if MS13 raped you or if Baba fucked your daughter that it wouldn't be a life anymore. I wouldn't want any of those things to happen, but if the posters want it to happen i'd be okay to take care of those children.

You call the people want to limit abortions monsters that fine, but in the end I can sleep well at night that I wouldn't want people I think are humans killed.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18851

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4 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

As a millennial, if be very okay with getting rid of abortion except if mothers life is in danger. I don't see how if think if it's a life then even if MS13 raped you or if Baba fucked your daughter that it wouldn't be a life anymore. I wouldn't want any of those things to happen, but if the posters want it to happen i'd be okay to take care of those children.

You call the people want to limit abortions monsters that fine, but in the end I can sleep well at night that I wouldn't want people I think are humans killed.

So you're not down with in vitro fertilization?

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I am anti-abortion.

I don't believe in repealing Roe V Wade, unless we can legally agree that it is murder.  It'll never happen.

 

That being said, raise kids who don't have abortions.  That's where I'm at on the topic... and don't ask me to fund yours.

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Zepol87

Zepol87 9185

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I am anti-abortion.
I don't believe in repealing Roe V Wade, unless we can legally agree that it is murder.  It'll never happen.
 
That being said, raise kids who don't have abortions.  That's where I'm at on the topic... and don't ask me to fund yours.

Yea stop raising girls that get raped damnit
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18851

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1 minute ago, slorch said:

I am anti-abortion.

I don't believe in repealing Roe V Wade, unless we can legally agree that it is murder.  It'll never happen.

 

That being said, raise kids who don't have abortions.  That's where I'm at on the topic... and don't ask me to fund yours.

I wonder how many parents in this country thought they had raised daughters who wouldn't have abortions but, well, you know. I bet they went to church on the reg and everything.

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austingirl

austingirl 2191

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53 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

This thread is depressing:

 

 

 

46 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I really want this to be satire.  But it's not, is it?

Matt Walsh is, unfortunately, very real. I'd tell you to go read more of the stuff he's written but your head would explode.

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