2020 Longhorn Baseball

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At the end of every season I sit down and try to look forward to the next year.  I drop this year’s roster into a spreadsheet and then eliminate those players who are out of eligibility:

Matteo Bocchi
Masen Hibbeler
Brandon Ivey
Michael McCann
Tate Shaw

DJ Petrinsky is a Senior and would be out of eligibility, but will qualify for a medical redshirt because of his season ending shoulder surgery, if he wants to apply for one.  We have three incoming freshman catchers, but it would be nice to have a veteran catcher to show them around and he can also play 1B and hit.

Next I look critically at those players eligible for the MLB draft:

Blair Henley-3.54 ERA not hugely impressive, but he did have some really strong games.  Good body pitchers with similar stats and without significant injuries will usually sign.

Ryan Reynolds-superior defense, but he only hit .272 with 4 HR, so not sure how high he will go.  He was drafted in 25th Round out of HS.  He could be on the fence and would be a huge asset for Texas if he comes back for his senior year.

Austin Todd-good defense, but he only hit .256 with 3 HR.  He could go or stay, but he is not a huge difference maker one way or the other.

Duke Ellis-good defense and faster than Austin Todd.  He only hit .266 with only 1 HR, but he gets on base a lot and steals bases.  He could go or stay, but he is not a huge difference maker one way or the other.

David Hamilton-his preseason surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon significantly contributed to our terrible year.  David is a huge talent defensively, hits well with some power and stole 31 bases in 2018.  Much of David’s value depends on his quickness and some people can never restore their abilities in competitive sports or running after an Achilles tendon repair.  Since the full rehabilitation cycle for this injury is about a year, it will be challenging for a MLB team to determine David’s worth.  I mostly hear that he will be drafted high enough to sign and that will let the MLB team manage the rest of his recovery.  This could go either way with the high degrees of potential gain and uncertainty.

After all of this I only see two definite returning starting position players: Freshmen Eric Kennedy and Lance Ford.  That’s really scary considering our .500 record this year with many more veteran players.  Our recent recruiting classes were ranked as follows by Perfect Game: 

2015    18th
2016    35th
2017    97th
2018    7th
2019    25th

Unfortunately these recruiting class rankings tell much of the story, except in 2018 we have had significant recruiting failures year after year.  The 2015 and 2016 classes were exclusively Augie’s responsibility.  Much of 2017 recruiting class ranking was too, since much of the recruiting of those players was already pretty much done by the time Pierce was signed June 29, 2016.  The 2019 recruiting class rank won’t be final until after the July 15 signing day and until school starts.  Sometimes a player signs a LOI in November and doesn’t sign a pro contract, but ends up in a junior college because of grades or a desire to be draft eligible the next year instead of waiting until after his junior year.

The MLB draft is June 2-5 and the last day for drafted players with remaining eligibility to sign is July 15.  We will know much more then.  I remain very concerned about our 2020 team composition because of so much uncertainty in the draft and pro contract signing of this year’s players and recruits for next year.

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