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2018 Rain Thread

Hollywood

By Hollywood
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Dewey

Dewey 3286

Posted
Posted

Plenty of rain here in Galveston, Houston weather people said scattered thunderstorms with the bulk of rain north of Houston, so I figured I'd leave my windows open down here.... oops. Judging from the rain that entered the house from the west windows, I'd say it was well over an inch or two.

 

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South Austin
South Austin

I'd keep playing.  I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite a while.

RamjetFDO
RamjetFDO

Sorry ... just had to read it in this voice:  

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

That's called dusk

phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

 A good portion of this rain is gonna make it across Austin/TravCo.  Nothing spectacular but maybe 1/2 to an inch, even more in a few small locales.  Enjoy.


Oh, CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has said the next 2-3 weeks are going to unusual for us... wetter than average and cooler than average. 

Will post graphics later, when I'm not lazy.  They're usually pretty good with these predictions (note it doesn't mean the entire 2-3 weeks will be like that, just within that span we might have a few really rainy and cool days, bringing the 3 week average below normal).

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

We're slowly transitioning over to our late spring pattern.  This means the greatest window of severe weather, because daytime temps are going up.  Once they hit about 85° on average, enough heat builds up on the ground to trigger severe weather if a front or some other trigger moves through.  Of course some years I don't see shit, Stevie Wonder, because it's so dry etc.  But this year actually is about moderately wet.

Keeping an eye on next week about Wed. for maybe the first of these types of days.  Most of 'em wash out but as you know, usually our worst weather is from late April to early June (and Sept./Oct. the other bookend of this pattern).  We'll see.

As promised (or threatened), here's the CPC stuff on the next few weeks.  Looks good for rain, although it'll never rain again.

814temp.new.gif

814prcp.new.gif

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted (edited)

This has been the best spring I can remember.  It hasn't gotten hot yet and the nights have been wonderfully cool.  I'd like to keep this going for as long as possible please.

Edited by Hate
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Glad you asked that.  I think we're actually in for a big, noticeable  change in the stretch of the next 2-3 weeks... See the CPC graphs about 6 posts above.

This is going to be a little unusual for us but welcome.  Pattern is changing, southern branch of Jet Stream is going to bring storm after storm over us, or near enough.  This means definitely cloudier, cooler, and.. rainier.  How much?  Way too early to say, but you'll notice the change. Usually about now we start getting warmer/drier with increased severe potential, but mostly dry days as ground warms and hotter air rises to form storms.  We'll probably have some of that, but also more just a lineup of storms passing much closer over us now than in winter or early spring.  This will start about next Tuesday, and rain chances will be up every day for at least 2 weeks as a train of systems goes over us.  More on this when it ferrets out, but now the CPC prediction has supporting data... Jet Stream pattern change will bring storms across Texas/Southern U.S. one after the other in a definite rainy pattern.  How much rain is always a crapshoot, but certainly the best medium run chances since last fall.  It's mos def gonna change early next week.

Next weekend (after this) likely will dodge rain.  This weekend coming up, pretty much zero chance of rain.  Very nice weekend days coming up.


More to come.

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Looks like all-time U.S. record for 24-hour rainfall (currently held by good ol' Alvin, Texas (43 inches, as TS Claudette disintegrated over SE Texas in 1979) is going to be pretty much shattered, in a place where they get lots of rain anyway, north part of Kauai:

  


427 
SXHW70 PHFO 252332
RERHFO

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
132 PM HST WED APR 25 2018

...POSSIBLE NEW NATIONAL RECORD 24-HOUR RAINFALL FROM KAUAI...

PRELIMINARY DATA DOWNLOADED FROM A REMOTE RAIN GAGE IN NORTH KAUAI
INDICATE THAT RAINFALL DURING THE FLASH FLOOD EVENT ON APRIL
14-15, 2018 BROKE THE U.S. 24-HOUR RAINFALL RECORD. THE RAIN 
GAGE, LOCATED IN WAIPA ABOUT ONE MILE WEST OF HANALEI, RECORDED 
49.69 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 12:45
PM HST APRIL 15. THIS TOTAL, IF CERTIFIED, WILL BREAK THE CURRENT
U.S. 24-HOUR RECORD OF 43 INCHES AT ALVIN, TX ON JULY 25-26, 
1979, AND THE STATE OF HAWAII RECORD OF 38 INCHES AT KILAUEA 
(KAUAI) ON JANUARY 24-25, 1956.

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC EXTREMES COMMITTEE WILL BE CONVENED TO
REVIEW THE DATA AND GAGE SITE SPECIFICS. THE COMMITTEE WILL
DETERMINE DATA VALIDITY AND POTENTIALLY CERTIFY THE REPORT AS A
NEW NATIONAL RECORD. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME HOW LONG THE
CERTIFICATION PROCESS WILL TAKE.

THE RAIN GAGE IS OPERATED BY THE WAIPA FOUNDATION WHICH IS A NON-
PROFIT ORGANIZATION. DATA FROM THE GAGE ARE NOT TELEMETERED FOR
REAL-TIME DISPLAY AND ARE USED FOR WATERSHED MODELING AND
MONITORING STUDIES.

$$

KODAMA
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Shut up Lou Holtz

Shut up Lou Holtz 2029

Posted
Posted
On 4/27/2018 at 11:13 AM, phdhorn said:

Glad you asked that.  I think we're actually in for a big, noticeable  change in the stretch of the next 2-3 weeks... See the CPC graphs about 6 posts above.

This is going to be a little unusual for us but welcome.  Pattern is changing, southern branch of Jet Stream is going to bring storm after storm over us, or near enough.  This means definitely cloudier, cooler, and.. rainier.  How much?  Way too early to say, but you'll notice the change. Usually about now we start getting warmer/drier with increased severe potential, but mostly dry days as ground warms and hotter air rises to form storms.  We'll probably have some of that, but also more just a lineup of storms passing much closer over us now than in winter or early spring.  This will start about next Tuesday, and rain chances will be up every day for at least 2 weeks as a train of systems goes over us.  More on this when it ferrets out, but now the CPC prediction has supporting data... Jet Stream pattern change will bring storms across Texas/Southern U.S. one after the other in a definite rainy pattern.  How much rain is always a crapshoot, but certainly the best medium run chances since last fall.  It's mos def gonna change early next week.

Next weekend (after this) likely will dodge rain.  This weekend coming up, pretty much zero chance of rain.  Very nice weekend days coming up.


More to come.

 

Running a train and ferrets? Shits getting intense 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Mon-Tue-Wed:  partly cloudy to cloudy, warm, humid, chances of mostly afternoon-evening thunderstorms, probably not severe.  Basically not too much rain.
Thurs-Fri:  cold front approaches us and stalls to our north (summerlike behavior), bringing good chance for strong storms just south of wherever it stalls (unknown right now).  Front pushes through by early Saturday but storms linger through the evening, all moves out by Sunday which will be sunny and nice.

tl;dr:  probably you won't get rained on Mon-Wed, probably you will get rained on at least once or twice Thu-Sat.

Also note that the next few days if you're going west (Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, or especially Iraan, metroplex of the plains, dry line will produce nasty storms, maybe tornaders, so just watch out.  Dry line don't make it this far east by evening, fizzles out then backs up to move east again for another day, all in W. Texas.  Won't affect us until maybe Thurs.

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