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2018 Rain Thread

Hollywood

By Hollywood
in Daily Texan

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South Austin
South Austin

I'd keep playing.  I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite a while.

RamjetFDO
RamjetFDO

Sorry ... just had to read it in this voice:  

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

That's called dusk

irishtexan

irishtexan 11519

Posted
Posted

This last week has been quite enjoyable. Potential high below 90 today. Rain kicked out all that African dust that has been fucking with my sinuses for a week. Not a day over 95 projected in the next week. I'll fucking take it for the middle of July. Especially knowing that when this system moves out it's obviously never going to rain again. 

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F250

F250 28777

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Glorious wetness falling from the sky during stage 2 restrictions. In the 78070.

Yes, this weather is fantastic, very relaxing. There is a 95% chance I will be taking a nap on my couch in the next 30 minutes and then hit up the Antler for a late lunch.

 

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RamjetFDO

RamjetFDO 10575

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Posted
51 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Good chance of another round firing up later today due to diurnal heating.  No, not a scissoring technique, just means that sun heats afternoon air and it billows up into storms.

Sorry ... just had to read it in this voice:

 

FrankieWx_diurnalheating.jpg

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Modessit

Modessit 5603

Posted
Posted

It was absolutely pouring when I left my house 15 minutes ago. In the 24. Like a waterfall coming off the house. Street had 3-4" deep running towards the sewers and the ditches were getting full. People on 130 were pulling over or driving under 40mph.

Got up north of Parmer on 130 and everything's dry.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Holy fucking shit...Katy to 610 today around 11:30a/noon.  Didn't help my business partner driving was trying to kill us by texting and speeding.  I haven't seen some shit like that in years.  

What the fuck.  I don't know how people live like this and how I didn't stab him in the neck and take the wheel to save ourselves.  Wowza.  Seeing Kate Upton's tits in the elevator at his building helped take the edge off though. 

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

Posted
Posted (edited)

Phd- I seem to recall Jim Spencer saying something a while back about yearly rainfall and temperature only being updated every 20-30 years instead of being cumulative.

In other words, part of the reason it seems like every other day is a warmer than average high -these last few days not withstanding- is largely because they’re based off numbers which are two or three decades old.  

Is that really true?

Edited by Chet Steadman
Word play.
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hornian

hornian 5219

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chet Steadman said:

Phd- I seem to recall Jim Spencer saying something a while back about yearly rainfall and temperature only being updated every 20-30 years instead of being cumulative.

In other words, part of the reason it seems like every other day is a record high -these last few days not withstanding- is largely because they’re based off numbers which are two or three decades old.  

Is that really true?

That makes no sense. 

 

I culd potentially see the average being a running 30 year average, but a record is an all time record, not a generational record. 

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, hornian said:

That makes no sense. 

 

I culd potentially see the average being a running 30 year average, but a record is an all time record, not a generational record. 

Sorry- I meant “above average” high, not “record” high.  

You are correct, a running 30 year average.  

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Modessit

Modessit 5603

Posted
Posted
That makes no sense. 
 
I culd potentially see the average being a running 30 year average, but a record is an all time record, not a generational record. 
It's not even an "all-time" record. It's just "since we've been reliably keeping records". Who knows if 922 AD was hotter or not?
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, hornian said:

 

3 hours ago, Chet Steadman said:

Phd- I seem to recall Jim Spencer saying something a while back about yearly rainfall and temperature only being updated every 20-30 years instead of being cumulative.

In other words, part of the reason it seems like every other day is a warmer than average high -these last few days not withstanding- is largely because they’re based off numbers which are two or three decades old.  

Is that really true?

Short answer is no.

Not sure what Jimmy boy might have said, but yearly temperature and rainfall totals are cumulative in that they're compared to all years.

That said, the ways records have been kept have changed quite a bit since the first ones, which I think in Austin's case go back to the 1890s.  Furthermore, Bergstrom didn't start keeping daily NWS/NOAA records until the late 1940's I believe.  So in some ways when you hear "all time", it has a lot of asterisks. Some years' stuff has missing records, other years have really weird outputs, etc.

But I don't know what his 30-year comment might have been.

Edited by phdhorn
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HenryJames

HenryJames 66074

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Modessit said:
8 hours ago, hornian said:
That makes no sense. 
 
I culd potentially see the average being a running 30 year average, but a record is an all time record, not a generational record. 

Who knows if 922 AD was hotter or not?

Armybrat.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Modessit said:

I think he was talking about what is considered a "normal" temp for a particular time of year.

"Normal" temps are factored in cumulatively as well.  Most regular records go back as far as about 1856 in this country, lots of places not for 30-40 years later.  But once regular records have a trail, they compute daily avg. highs and lows etc. against the total database.  They don't refresh every 30 years or so.  They just add it to the pile and divide.

The only caveat to this is that NWS usually updates these daily highs and lows every 10 years officially, just to avoid - confusion(?) (not sure whose life would be fucked up by being off a degree on the average high for July 19) - but that's also a product of pre-tech times, when things were a little slower.  Even that trend is increasingly changing, although officially NWS is still there.. but they just updated their WEATHER BULLETINS IN ALL CAPS tradition of 70 years about 2 years ago, reflecting much faster dissemination of news worldwide (the caps thing was supposedly to reduce "confusion" internationally, but not sure exactly how).

But the calculations are now instant... I suspect that NWS will scrub the 10-year thing because now it's so effortless to just plug in the updates each new year as they happen.  So yeah, I guess technically they do a 10-year "revamp" but I suspect that's going to disappear pretty quickly in the future.  In any event, adding one year's worth of data (or even updating with 10 years' worth on the next "refresh") doesn't change the stats that much, maybe half a degree on average, and gets less and less different, as more years are added to the mix (well, duh, like batting averages shrink in their delta range the more AB"s a batter has through the season).

 

Edited by phdhorn
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

So the 10-day forecast looks fucking lovely , exactly like normal for the hottest part of the year, the turn from July to August.

FIFY

I can't really bitch too much about 100 degrees and not a drop of rain during the 3-4 weeks it's supposed to be 100 and not a drop of rain.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

FIFY

I can't really bitch too much about 100 degrees and not a drop of rain during the 3-4 weeks it's supposed to be 100 and not a drop of rain.

It’s supposed to be 109 here fri/sat/sun next week.   That’s fucking sometimes, but not always normal.   That shit sucks

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

... by not going to Alaska in mid-July?  Maybe so.

Average July rain is 1.79".  Most of that usually comes before July 20.
Average August rain is 2.04".  Most of that usually comes after August 15.

This is the time of year I expect it to be hot as shit and dry as shit.  

The next 3-5 weeks are affectionately called "Summer in Central Texas."
 

Edited by phdhorn
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
On 7/9/2018 at 7:22 AM, South Austin said:

It won't stop raining.

Glad you didn't jinx us.

this little bit of rain every afternoon has been a boon for my once thinning yard.

I swear the mower was just gliding gently above the grass without the wheels even touching the ground.

Usually by this time of the year, the yard is shot and we're just watering to keep it from spontaneously combusting.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

It is looking pretty damn bleak.  I’m safely assuming August is just going to be miserable.   But is this also one of those years where the 90+heat lasts until Halloween or will be there some reprieve by late September?

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