2018 Rain Thread

[phdhorn 6224]

I'm back in the ATX and am now looking at our weather, not D.C.'s.  

Little low moving north out of Mexico just south of Brownsville will put some rain on us, but most in E. Texas as we're on the west side of the low which = less widespread rain.

However, today will be soupy with almost certainly periods of light, brief rain scattered on/around us.  Hit/miss kind of thing.

Not washout day but more soggy and shit, irritating if you're golfing or some outdoor stuff.

Quick look at Friday for McCartney (and whoever else is playing, don't care, McCartney, period, end of story, amen, stop presses, close and lock thread) is good.  Sunny with slight chance of afternoon showers.

As to Sat and Sunday, not sure yet.

OU looking ok but iffy.  Sunny on Friday but thundershowers moving in, good chance (<50%) but more towards later afternoon, 11 a.m. game might skirt the wet..  I'll of course update.

[Anastasis 23329]

Would be a damn shame if a couple soccer Games got canceled And I had to stay home in the rain and watch football

[Okie State 3747]

Would be a damn shame if a couple soccer Games got canceled And I had to stay home in the rain and watch football

This happened for us. I was not upset.

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Some artillery practice at Camp Mabry. 

[South Austin 51976]

On ‎9‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:20 AM, phdhorn said:

Quick look at Friday for McCartney (and whoever else is playing, don't care, McCartney, period, end of story, amen, stop presses, close and lock thread) is good.  Sunny with slight chance of afternoon showers.

Really hoping the weather cooperates with ACL this weekend.  We're all counting on you, phdhorn.

[Hate 20095]

[phdhorn 6224]

Austin Outdoor Festival Thingy That They Have E'rr Year At This Time

Friday - gorgeous.  I'm going to ACL.  If you get in my way to see McCartney I will eat you and shit the turds that were your body into Lady Bird Lake.
Saturday - decent.  Rain chances low.
Sunday - ruh-roh (more later on that).

[Moby Ric 2058]

Just put new wiper blades on the truck.  Expect a drought.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11776]

Wow, I just checked the data from the weather station near my place out off West Fitzhugh near Hamilton Pool.  Almost 15" of rain in September.  Didn't realize it accumulated that much.

[South Austin 51976]

24 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Austin Outdoor Festival Thingy That They Have E'rr Year At This Time

Friday - gorgeous.  I'm going to ACL.  If you get in my way to see McCartney I will eat you and shit the turds that were your body into Lady Bird Lake.
Saturday - decent.  Rain chances low.
Sunday - ruh-roh (more later on that).

I'd be okay with that.  I mean, except for the part about you eating me and shitting me into Lady Bird Town Lake.

[Trey3216 15321]

On 9/29/2018 at 10:20 AM, phdhorn said:

I'm back in the ATX and am now looking at our weather, not D.C.'s.  

Little low moving north out of Mexico just south of Brownsville will put some rain on us, but most in E. Texas as we're on the west side of the low which = less widespread rain.

However, today will be soupy with almost certainly periods of light, brief rain scattered on/around us.  Hit/miss kind of thing.

Not washout day but more soggy and shit, irritating if you're golfing or some outdoor stuff.

Quick look at Friday for McCartney (and whoever else is playing, don't care, McCartney, period, end of story, amen, stop presses, close and lock thread) is good.  Sunny with slight chance of afternoon showers.

As to Sat and Sunday, not sure yet.

OU looking ok but iffy.  Sunny on Friday but thundershowers moving in, good chance (<50%) but more towards later afternoon, 11 a.m. game might skirt the wet..  I'll of course update.

It's not about if you skirt the wet, it's about if you wet the skirt

[utee94 15733]

Also, it should be Waterloo City Limits Festival.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Is McCartney still married to Eileen?  Might want to stake out IHOP for an autograph.

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Raining in Central Austin.  Yet another little rain that wasn’t expected, but welcome. 

[The University 851]

...and boom goes the dynamite

[Pancho 44183]

Delete ban user

Edited October 5, 2018 by Pancho Negro

[phdhorn 6224]

Last call weather for ACL/OU:

ACL:  Basically it's simple:  Chances of rain go up each day with it more likely than not by Sunday afternoon, so most of ACL will be dry.  That said,  very good chance of Gulf showers moving up from the coast both today and Saturday.  You know how that goes:  hit or miss, mostly miss.  But you (I) might get soaked by a shower later this afternoon.

By Sunday, a trough bringing in more rain will move from 4 corners into Texas.  Rain chances go up to > 50% by late afternoon.  Peak will be Tuesday when front moves by and temps drop to low 80's for highs.  Anyway every day has some chance of rain, more as you go later in weekend.  Nothing should be violent or all-day.  

OU:
Sucks.

Cloudy and muggy, high about 88° but about 80° at kickoff.  There have been worse weather days (last year it got up to like 94°).  Rain will move in, mostly in afternoon showers and storms, but almost definitely very late in the game or after. Weather shouldn't affect watching/playing.  Most of da shit after all the drunks clear out of Cotton Bowl and throw up somewhere behind the Midway tents.  Don't worry about weather.  Take a poncho?  Eh, maybe, I wouldn't.

Enjoy.

Edited October 5, 2018 by phdhorn

[llanoflash 151]

llano river running over 100000cfs at junction. travis might catch a little water.

[RamjetFDO 10554]

Drip be drippin'

Dogs be freakin'

[Orange&White 5516]

1 hour ago, llanoflash said:

llano river running over 100000cfs at junction. travis might catch a little water.

Damn! Currently showing as 56k cfs in Junction but only 166 cfs in Mason. 

[llanoflash 151]

Just now, Orange&White said:

Damn! Currently showing as 56k cfs in Junction but only 166 cfs in Mason. 

yeah.. it was over 100k at about 9am or so when i first looked. should be getting to mason pretty quick.

[Orange&White 5516]

7 minutes ago, llanoflash said:

yeah.. it was over 100k at about 9am or so when i first looked. should be getting to mason pretty quick.

Username definitely checks out.

[Brisketexan 104227]

Just saw some footage of the Guadalupe near Hunt.  It's up like a mofo, a good bit out of its banks.  That upstream rain gave it the bidness.

[HiggyBaby 2505]

Meanwhile in the metroplex

[Hate 20095]

llano river running over 100000cfs at junction. travis might catch a little water.

I can confirm that it dumped all night and all morning near Junction. We almost couldn’t get out of the ranch this morning.

[CleverNickname 1286]

That video of the flood wave at Hwy 87 is crazy. 

[phdhorn 6224]

Tuesday is gonna be possibly the first rough fall weather day.  Good chance of severe storms coming in a line.  I'll post tomorrow if it looks inetivinabl... er inetivab... er, likely.

[Guest Lobo]

You mean, like the first day with heavy rain and wind after the Autumnal Equinox or something specific to Fall is going to happen to Central Texas?  I mean, I'm a hint worried about the talk of hail and tornado activity and possible flash flooding.  But the fact it won't get below 70 degrees all day tomorrow doesn't really scream Fall to me.  That said, I've always read your forecasts with intense respect, so I'll hang up and listen.  

Also, da fuh with Saturday?  Heat index at Baylor kickoff at/over 90 degrees?  Da fuH?  

[troph 24499]

llano river running over 100000cfs at junction. travis might catch a little water.

Rainfall totals over even two weeks aren’t that impressive out there. A few five inch spots over two weeks but only a few more 2-3 inches spots out west at the fork. Closer in very little. How’d this happen?

[NorthLoop 14053]

44 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

That video of the flood wave at Hwy 87 is crazy. 

Nice link 

[CleverNickname 1286]

picky picky 

 

 

[llanoflash 151]

 

nice video. lots of bullshit getting washed out of there.

Edited October 9, 2018 by llanoflash
for reasons.

[Trey3216 15321]

Damn, my folks up in Haskell County are getting walloped.   After they went from Sept 1 ‘17 to Sept 1 ‘18 with 2 inches of rain combined, they’ve been getting smashed.   

[Orange&White 5516]

LCRA opened Starcke at about 6:00 am. Lake Travis has been climbing about an inch every 15 minutes since then. Currently at about 660'. 

 

With what we've had so far, I'd guess that would put LT up another 3-4 feet. And there is more rain scheduled to come down in that area, so we COULD see 668-670 by next weekend.

[Wally Pryor 5236]

10 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

That video of the flood wave at Hwy 87 is crazy. 

Almost as crazy at this:

 

So far, there are no confirmed deaths. Crews saved 19 people through boat and helicopter rescues and around 40 others with life jackets and throw ropes. The Texas Game Wardens is using a drone and using the information it receives from it to plan for other rescue efforts. The drone helps see debris so the game wardens can safely navigate the waters.

One woman survived after being swept down the river for more than 20 miles while clinging to a piece of debris. It's a story capturing the attention of many local residents.

"She's in her mid-50s, got out with no real injuries, she's bruised, she's scratched, but walked out on her own, on her own merit and has quite the story to tell," Rachel Kellner, a Texas game warden, said.

"I don't know how she made it, with the current and logs floating around the river," said Randle.
Though the river was lowering early Monday evening in the Junction area, first responders say it's still unsafe.

Holy shit. 

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/us-politics/texas/woman-rides-llano-river-for-20-miles-clinging-to-piece-of-debris/1508560411

[troph 24499]

LCRA opened Starcke at about 6:00 am. Lake Travis has been climbing about an inch every 15 minutes since then. Currently at about 660'. 
 
With what we've had so far, I'd guess that would put LT up another 3-4 feet. And there is more rain scheduled to come down in that area, so we COULD see 668-670 by next weekend.

I was about to complain of the rain in the boat fanatic thread bc this is prime surfing weather usually but if we get to 670 before even the winter rainy season let alone the spring season I won’t say a word. Should make for a full lake going into the summer instead of teetering on historic drought levels by end of next season.

[phdhorn 6224]

Update:

The cold front is running now in a line towards the NE from just west of Del Rio, up through San Angelo now, and into Abilene.  It's a relatively fast mover.  However there is a bunch of rain associated with the front, and flash flooding is possible, especially in the areas yesterday that got soaked.  Right now there is (mostly, read on) no severe weather with the front, although a tornado did form around Rocksprings (NE of Del Rio) for a bit.  That's what I was talking about yesterday - by and large the front won't be severe, but certainly could fire up with the increased heating of the day, no doubt about that.

The front will pass through the Hill Country (Blanco, Llano counties, etc.) about 11 a.m.-noon, and then into the Austin area by late afternoon.  This is of course when daytime heating will be the highest and the most likely severe weather  window to form.  Most of it will be high winds, some hail here/there, and a small chance for a tornado.  It won't be widespread all up/down the front, but locally it could get severe - right now the worst of it looks to be SW of us, but that could change.  NWS hasn't issued any severe watches yet, but there's a severe thunderstorm just NE of Uvalde right now, and I expect with the heat of the day, that'll change into a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and possibly a Tornado Watch for our area.

There will be a lot of rain with this front (there already is) but again it'll move fairly quickly, so widespread flooding not likely, but certainly local flash flooding could happen.  There is a TON of low-level moisture just waiting to kick off storms around/above us, and the trigger is coming now through west central Texas.

Whatever hits us should be out of the area by dinnertime more or less, then 3 very nice days.

However, the rain from Sergio (Pacific tropical system) is going to funnel up to us as Sergio moves inland NE into Mexico Thursday.  Sometimes that means a lot of rain for us,k sometimes not so much. Most models right now are keeping rain chances low for the weekend, but I expect those to change.  I think there's a good chance the weekend will get rainy from Sergio. More on that in a day or two.

For today, watchyerasses from lunch → dinnertime.  Could be bumpy.  The line is certainly looking potent right now west of us.

More later if conditions get snippy.

Edited October 9, 2018 by phdhorn

[phdhorn 6224]

10 hours ago, Lobo said:

You mean, like the first day with heavy rain and wind after the Autumnal Equinox or something specific to Fall is going to happen to Central Texas?  I mean, I'm a hint worried about the talk of hail and tornado activity and possible flash flooding.  But the fact it won't get below 70 degrees all day tomorrow doesn't really scream Fall to me.  That said, I've always read your forecasts with intense respect, so I'll hang up and listen.  

Also, da fuh with Saturday?  Heat index at Baylor kickoff at/over 90 degrees?  Da fuH?  

By "rough fall weather day" I mean that there are 2 times per year where severe weather is most likely - early to mid spring (March-April) and mid to late fall (Oct-Nov). The fall period is generally shorter in duration.  What happens is that these are the 2 times per year that real cold fronts bulldoze under warm air masses, kick up the air, and build severe weather.  This is the first time this year that a cold front strong enough to trigger this type of thing (also because the warm air is really warm) since the contrasts are so great.  So this is the first "rough weather day" potentially.  This lasts into maybe mid November or later (depending on the climate for that year).  Nothing at all unusual, even expected.  Like I said, there are lesser of these in the fall than the spring, but we're within that severe weather window for the fall now. 

I don't expect this front to be terrible, but certainly it'll kick up some nasty isolated storms in a few places.  Certainly a lot of rain for a good deal of it.  Wait for it after lunch time in ATX.

[Anastasis 23329]

26 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

LCRA opened Starcke at about 6:00 am. Lake Travis has been climbing about an inch every 15 minutes since then. Currently at about 660'. 

 

With what we've had so far, I'd guess that would put LT up another 3-4 feet. And there is more rain scheduled to come down in that area, so we COULD see 668-670 by next weekend.

 

 

Somebody gonna have to update their projections.

https://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/highland-lakes-overview/Documents/laketravisprojections.pdf

 

[Trey3216 15321]

On 9/11/2018 at 9:17 AM, phdhorn said:

Just leave me a tip, fuckers.  Just a tip.

Got a tornado warning for Crawford/McGregor area right now.  Radar indicated from a nice hook echo 

[Hate 20095]

This is from a friend’s ranch in between Rocksprings and Barksdale. This is a tributary to the Nueces and is generally a very slow moving and crystal clear river.

[HenryJames 65849]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

This is from a friend’s ranch in between Rocksprings and Barksdale. This is a tributary to the Nueces and is generally a very slow moving and crystal clear river.

Looks like Mother Earth ate at Taco Bell.

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

This latest rain event should officially end any talk of drought or dry conditions in North Central Texas. I know some people are trying to keep the flame alight that the weather is drier and hotter this year. Puts that thought on hold for awhile.

Really excited that this system camped out between Lubbock and Abilene for a couple days and drenched the area.

[CleverNickname 1286]

that llano flash flood video made me go down a youtube binge on "flash flood desert" - trust me, an hour well spent. 

[Orange&White 5516]

https://txpub.usgs.gov/dss/gwis/0.0/services/plot?range_selector=true&amp;date_window=15&amp;controls=full_screen,full_range,y_fixscale,y_logscale,y_show0,x_grid,y_grid&amp;y_fixscale=true&amp;color=steelblue&amp;period=p7d&amp;title=08151500 Llano Rv at Llano%2C TX&amp;site=08151500&amp;pcode=00060&amp;label=Streamflow&amp;ylabel=Streamflow%2C cubic feet per second

[Anastasis 23329]

2 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Currently at about 660'. 

661.02

[clapclapclap 9000]

Thundertruck! is patrolling.

[Chet Steadman 940]

3 hours ago, troph said:

I was about to complain of the rain in the boat fanatic thread bc this is prime surfing weather usually but if we get to 670 before even the winter rainy season let alone the spring season I won’t say a word. Should make for a full lake going into the summer instead of teetering on historic drought levels by end of next season.

This is the reason the folks at LCRA are usually pretty even-keeled about lake levels.  While everyone else seemingly proclaims “the lake will never be full again!” they know it just takes 1-2 freak rainstorms 100 miles away to completely change lake levels for the next 6-12 months.  

LT can go from 645’ to 670’ in a couple days.  

[Orange&White 5516]

1 minute ago, Chet Steadman said:

This is the reason the folks at LCRA are usually pretty even-keeled about lake levels.  While everyone else seemingly proclaims “the lake will never be full again!” they know it just takes 1-2 freak rainstorms 100 miles away to completely change lake levels for the next 6-12 months.  

LT can go from 645’ to 670’ in a couple days.  

Exactly. Droughts end with floods.

[phdhorn 6224]

Update 11:50

Line is pretty much filling in, which is good.  Cuts down on isloated spinning storms which can cause tornadoes.  So far no watches/warnings, again this is good.

Line should hit Travis by about 12:45 or so, Austin by about 1-1:15.  Some hard rain, wind, but at this point (stressing that for now) nothing to worry about.

Keeping posted later..