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2018 Rain Thread

Hollywood

By Hollywood
in Daily Texan

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South Austin
South Austin

I'd keep playing.  I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite a while.

RamjetFDO
RamjetFDO

Sorry ... just had to read it in this voice:  

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

That's called dusk

crash_davis

crash_davis 23114

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Another article from 2015 about Longhorn Dam.

http://www.kut.org/post/dam-holds-lady-bird-lake-so-when-will-it-get-essential-repairs

Aside from being inherently dangerous, the dam also leaks 4k acre-feet of water per year.

that's an under the table deal with the rice farmers.  one man's leak is another man's fortune.

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BTW

BTW 370

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Yep.  I'd be shocked if OH Ivie ever reaches the level required to release.  So no need to worry about rains in the Concho or Upper Colorado basins.  Just east of Eden-El Dorado-Rock Springs.

Hyodromet map illustrates the basins, for those not familiar:

https://hydromet.lcra.org/

OH Ivey now 21% full:

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Those of us who live in Midland could really use a full O.H. Ivey.  But I agree, I'm not sure it will ever be full.  I'd be damn nice though.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89750

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, UTEX_ME said:

Yeah I definitely think they were thinking more rain. Doesn't seem to be as bad (at least right now) as they predicted. However, they could be letting some water out (maybe 1 or 2 more flood gates) while we have some down time to get some capacity back. Can't have fast moving water in Lake Austin, oh the horror. 

 

2 hours ago, Horns99 said:

Anyone think formula 1 race this weekend has anything to do w/ LCRA not opening the other gates, so they don't flood 1st street & mess w/ DT on a big weekend?

Bastrop and Smithville are bankfull and Bastrop is around 3-4 feet from flooding.  They are already voluntarily evacuating some areas and closing some roads around Bastrop. From the interviews I saw last night, Bastrop officials are very worried   

LCRA said, I think yesterday, that they are trying to get the downstream areas in better shape.

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LonghornJones

LonghornJones 837

Posted
Posted

From DFW NWS rain event next week: 

While confidence is high in the chance of rainfall
Wednesday, what is still in question are the amounts. That`s
because rainfall amounts are contingent on whether a tropical
system will develop in the eastern Pacific Ocean and gets drawn
northward by the upper trough into Mexico. Should this occur it
would provide strong upper level dynamics for lift and result in a
swath of widespread heavy rainfall across Texas. We`ve seen both
the operational GFS and ECMWF flirt with this scenario on
occasional runs and we know from climatology that this is a
pattern setup that has produced many instances of 10+ inches of
rain. Again, we will not start advertising or anticipating this
until we get better consistency with the possible tropical system
(that hasn`t organized yet), but we`re watching this closely as
it`d be a worse case scenario after all of the rain we`ve already
seen.
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Paper_jam

Paper_jam 831

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

I'll just put this here:

https://www.lawnstarter.com/blog/texas/austin-tx/austin-dam-failure-flood-zones/

"Depending on the size of the breach, a wall of water will be blasted out at speeds in excess of 1,000 MPH and could still be traveling at 50 MPH by the time it reaches Austin. In the Teton Dam failure, initial wave velocity was 1,090 MPH (1,960 ft/s) and the wave was 120 ft tall. The St. Francis Dam failure was an instantaneous failure and released an initial wave of water at 2,018 MPH (2,960 ft/s). These velocities are the result of massive amounts of pressure being created by the weight of the water."

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hornian

hornian 5222

Posted
Posted

Was supposed to have people renting my lake house on AirBnB this weekend for the F1 race - they just contacted my property manager to cancel. Probably for the best - my house isn’t flooded but if it gets much higher the road to my house will be. And if it gets above 711 my place may get some water in it. Don’t know - it’s never happened before. 

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sorta blows my mind that all these waterfront houses aren’t raised on piers or anything. 

Guess that’s just my gulf coast background coming out 

 

hopefully they have flood insurance.  but I guess the bright side that anyone that close the water would surely purchase something so cheap - not like it’s a hidden danger as in other places 

Edited by Xian
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hornian

hornian 5222

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Xian said:

Sorta blows my mind that all these waterfront houses aren’t raised on piers or anything. 

Guess that’s just my gulf coast background coming out 

 

hopefully they have flood insurance.  but I guess the bright side that anyone that close the water would surely purchase something so cheap - not like it’s a hidden danger as in other places 

Can’t speak for everyone, but I have flood insurance. I got a report for FEMA this summer stating there has never been a flood claim on my property (I bought house in January), so I hope that streak continues!

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Hate

Hate 20126

Posted
Posted
Can’t speak for everyone, but I have flood insurance. I got a report for FEMA this summer stating there has never been a flood claim on my property (I bought house in January), so I hope that streak continues!


I have an uncle with a million plus house on Lighthouse Dr. They did not have flood insurance. Fortunately, they did not flood but they did lose 2 jet skis.
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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, LonghornJones said:

From DFW NWS rain event next week: 


While confidence is high in the chance of rainfall
Wednesday, what is still in question are the amounts. That`s
because rainfall amounts are contingent on whether a tropical
system will develop in the eastern Pacific Ocean and gets drawn
northward by the upper trough into Mexico. Should this occur it
would provide strong upper level dynamics for lift and result in a
swath of widespread heavy rainfall across Texas. We`ve seen both
the operational GFS and ECMWF flirt with this scenario on
occasional runs and we know from climatology that this is a
pattern setup that has produced many instances of 10+ inches of
rain. Again, we will not start advertising or anticipating this
until we get better consistency with the possible tropical system
(that hasn`t organized yet), but we`re watching this closely as
it`d be a worse case scenario after all of the rain we`ve already
seen.

Spencer touched upon this tonight.    His tone was measured in this case, especially when it comes to Spencer . But it was a bit scary nonetheless. 

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PvilleStang

PvilleStang 2917

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Xian said:

hopefully they have flood insurance.  but I guess the bright side that anyone that close the water would surely purchase something so cheap - not like it’s a hidden danger as in other places 

Dude, had flood insurance on a house that was in a creek 100 year flood plain (forced by mortgage lender) and that shit was anything but cheap.  We hit 2 100 year floods back to back, and the water was at least 5 vertical feet from getting in my house.  City redrew the maps, I fell out of the F.P., told FEMA insurance co. to go fuck themselves.

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hornian

hornian 5222

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, PvilleStang said:

Dude, had flood insurance on a house that was in a creek 100 year flood plain (forced by mortgage lender) and that shit was anything but cheap.  We hit 2 100 year floods back to back, and the water was at least 5 vertical feet from getting in my house.  City redrew the maps, I fell out of the F.P., told FEMA insurance co. to go fuck themselves.

Yeah, it’s not cheap if you’re in a flood plain, which technically I am because if it gets to spillway water is on my property. According the maps I’ve seen it looks like it would stay out of the house (just be in my yard) at 714’, but I hope to never find out. 

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