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2018 Rain Thread

Hollywood

By Hollywood
in Daily Texan

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HOOKEM4

HOOKEM4 5044

Posted
Posted
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-- Four floodgates remain open at Mansfield Dam as LCRA discharges water from the flood pool at Lake Travis. Without additional rain, LCRA expects floodgates to remain open through early November. Lake Travis is now falling about 2 feet a day.

Who knows. I thought after the last flood they stopped around 684 but I don't remember exactly. I do know it was higher than 681.

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South Austin
South Austin

I'd keep playing.  I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite a while.

RamjetFDO
RamjetFDO

Sorry ... just had to read it in this voice:  

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

That's called dusk

Orange&White

Orange&White 5539

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PvilleStang said:

I hope they start shutting the gates one by one and letting the water start to return to normal sooner than later.

That would be nice but they have to weigh the cost of getting the water back down to normal versus the impact of another two week stretch of water showing up to an already full chain of lakes. I don't know the 2 week/1 month probability for rain, but I assume that will factor heavily into the decision of when to start closing gates. I know that Buchanan is still technically over "full" because of the ongoing gate repairs, so I suspect they will want to drop at least another foot out of there at some point soon to make sure there is some capacity to collect any type of rain that could potentially fall in the coming weeks.

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PvilleStang

PvilleStang 2921

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Orange&White said:

10/20/2018 - 6:15 AM - Lake Travis level was 704.37

10/28//2018 - 9:30 PM - Lake Travis level was 694.38

That is 8.5 days, with four flood gates opened the entire time, and release of about 26k chicken fried steaks, to drop 10 feet.

If they continue at the same pace, it will be November 7th before we get back down to "full".

 Has anyone seen any indication of how far down they will take Buchanan and Travis before ceasing the releases?

 

Considering the amount of water needed to drop Travis a foot.  Using the data found at https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/travis/rating-curve/twdb/2008-07-01:

To drop the lake from 704 to 694, it took a release of 238,746 acre-feet.

  • On October 20th, LCRA was releasing 1833 acre-feet / hour from Starcke, adding to the Travis volume.  
  • On October 28th, it's finally settled out between 300-600 acre-feet / hour (much of it hydro-electric generation)

To drop the lake from 694 to 681, it will take 270,908 acre-feet.

 

Now, lets assume we're taking in 400 acre-feet per hour from upstream (Starcke), and with all 4 floodgates open, we're shedding about 2060 acre-feet per hour.  A safe guess on overall change in Lake Travis volume would be 1600 acre-feet per hour (accounting for creek inflows around the basin).  271K / 1.6K gives us around a week to get right at 681.  So hopefully sometime around Sunday, they'll shut all the gates down except the hydro plant, or if they start to shut them down one at a time, they could begin closing gates soon.

 

Edited by PvilleStang
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Orange&White

Orange&White 5539

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Lake Level Realignment Talk not going away.

I've always thought Lake Georgetown is a more cultural fit in the Highland Lakes chain, but all of that topography and gravity tend to make it a more natural fit in the Brazos river basin. Maybe the next time the tectonic plates shift, things will reconcile.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

I think if we show the 18+ male voters in this city photos of what the 18+ females are planning to wear when it's 75 and clear (Tuesday & Thursday) and what they are planning to wear when it's 80% thunderstorms and chilly (Wednesday), 100% voter turnout will insure my plan comes to fruition.  

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Hate

Hate 20146

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Posted

Much of SE Texas could be under the gun tomorrow night right on time for Trick or Treating.  It will suck if it rains and ruins Halloween for the second year in a row.  Hopefully the front comes in earlier/later than the forecasts suggest at the moment.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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The odds of a severe event in Austin are really scant.  It's possible but odds are higher E/SE of us.  
Timing of the rain is leaning towards 6-7 onward.  Trick/treat on the early side.  Although this is a quick front and rain should only last up to an hour, not an all night thing.  And again, it's not certain everyone will get rain.

With kiddos, be more aware of the front bringing in winds and a sort of cool down (about 10° within an hour).   That's going to be e'erbody.

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Hate

Hate 20146

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

The odds of a severe event in Austin are really scant.  It's possible but odds are higher E/SE of us.  
Timing of the rain is leaning towards 6-7 onward.  Trick/treat on the early side.  Although this is a quick front and rain should only last up to an hour, not an all night thing.  And again, it's not certain everyone will get rain.

With kiddos, be more aware of the front bringing in winds and a sort of cool down (about 10° within an hour).   That's going to be e'erbody.

Do you mean 6-7 in Austin?  Asking for the SE Texas folks who have kids waiting to Trick or Treat.

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utee94

utee94 15865

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

The odds of a severe event in Austin are really scant.  It's possible but odds are higher E/SE of us.  
Timing of the rain is leaning towards 6-7 onward.  Trick/treat on the early side.  Although this is a quick front and rain should only last up to an hour, not an all night thing.  And again, it's not certain everyone will get rain.

With kiddos, be more aware of the front bringing in winds and a sort of cool down (about 10° within an hour).   That's going to be e'erbody.

It doesn't really get dark until about 7, so if you could just push that guesstimate back to 8-9 or so, that would be great...

 

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hate said:

Do you mean 6-7 in Austin?  Asking for the SE Texas folks who have kids waiting to Trick or Treat.

Well, although I was talking about Austin, looks like Houston's rain might be longer/more severe.  Your forecasts call for rain to start about 1 p.m. and last through the front, which would push through about midnight or so.  Doesn't sound good but the prefront rain might not be constant.  

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

It doesn't really get dark until about 7, so if you could just push that guesstimate back to 8-9 or so, that would be great...

If I had that power, I'd do two chicks at once.

1 hour ago, hookemATL said:

What kind of winds are we talking?  Will the winds just be coming in with the front and then be a non factor thru the rest of week/weekend?

Nah, winds strong with the front but die down after that, and should be fine once the front is passed.  This isn't a brutal cold front and the gradients aren't that different, so no, not a real wind thing.  Mostly the wind will be bad in severe storms, which again aren't predicted to be much around here.  But yeah, when a front goes through, there will always be a breeze.  Just make sure you have shit covered in case Little Susie has a bag of candy that blows out of her hand or the angel wings fly off.  That kind of stuff.

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F250

F250 28823

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I was being very generous with the candy I was handing out, like I always am, and some little shit had the nerve to ask for more. YOU'LL GET NOTHING! AND YOU'LL LIKE IT!

Yeah, everyone was dropping large amounts of candy in my kid's bags. Once the rain stopped everyone hit the streets for a small window of trick or treating.

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