ASF in China

[TexanInIowa 25]

ASF is wreaking havoc on the swine population in China. Some estimates are that it could kill nearly 50% of the entire Chinese herd of 440 million hogs. Additonally, the virus is pernicious and will last in the environment, for decades.  If China does indeed end up losing 200 million pigs, then they will face a shortage of protein of 10 million metric tons. They simply is not enough surplus available for purchase in the rest of the world to make up the shortage. As an example, the entire USA swine output is 76 million hogs, and we are number two in world production behind China. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-eliminating-african-swine-fever/

This is going to affect beef, egg and chicken prices worldwide as well. 

 

The Chinese have, or rather had, massive frozen reserves. However, those are expected to run out in the next few months. Question is, will the Chinese people be patient for a decade or even decades?

[Lhorn 4913]

Time to stock up on bacon lads 

[conVINCEd 21469]

There’s an opportunity here for Texas ranchers.

[RPM 26321]

Ship them feral hogs.

Profit.

[fattyflattie 4639]

7 minutes ago, RPM said:

Ship them feral hogs.

Profit.

I have a friend that does this.  The French love that shit.  

[RPM 26321]

Does he need a supplier?

[TexanInIowa 25]

15 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

There’s an opportunity here for Texas ranchers.

I was just getting used to more affordable beef prices, now this.

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Sounds like a good excuse to ship over a ton of aggies !

[fattyflattie 4639]

4 minutes ago, RPM said:

Does he need a supplier?

I don't know.  I know he somehow tricks ranchers into paying him to trap them, paying him to remove them (live - USDA stuff), and then people pay him for the meat.  He is heavily involved with the Jager  Pro group (was over all of southwestern dealers at one point) so he has a shitload of those fancy traps at his disposal.  It's a side deal for him between other construction stuff he provides. 

[RPM 26321]

I was being facetious. There's tons of them around here.

[fattyflattie 4639]

11 minutes ago, RPM said:

I was being facetious. There's tons of them around here.

Yeah I know, we shoot dozens off my folks place yearly.   Sell them all to China.

[Bigbend1812 12915]

Time to trade bacon bits for rare earth minerals.

[Parliament 14260]

We in agriculture have been watching this close. China's hog herd is something like 3x that of the US, and they've killed a third of it since August when ASF hit.

ASF is a viral disease WHICH IS NOT CONTAGIOUS TO HUMANS. (Wait until Facebook gets ahold of that.) It's extremely virulent though. It can be spread by tainted meat, feed, poop, and equipment. Chinese hog production is a combination of modern confinement and backyard production. Households in rural and semi-urban areas have a few hogs to eat their household scraps. It's the perfect way to spread the disease.

When the reality of all this hits, there's no way they can cover the shortfall with imports. There literally aren't enough refrigerated shipping containers to move enough frozen pork there. Let alone enough hog production off shore.


This a graphic video, depicting how sick pigs are killed:

https://www.kinderworld.org/videos/meat-industry/pigs-burned-alive-china/

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21907]

So does this mean a shortage of sweet and sour pork? If so I’m bummed.

[TexanInIowa 25]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

We in agriculture have been watching this close. China's hog herd is something like 3x that of the US, and they've killed a third of it since August when ASF hit.

ASF is a viral disease WHICH IS NOT CONTAGIOUS TO HUMANS. (Wait until Facebook gets ahold of that.) It's extremely virulent though. It can be spread by tainted meat, feed, poop, and equipment. Chinese hog production is a combination of modern confinement and backyard production. Households in rural and semi-urban areas have a few hogs to eat their household scraps. It's the perfect way to spread the disease.

When the reality of all this hits, there's no way they can cover the shortfall with imports. There literally aren't enough refrigerated shipping containers to move enough frozen pork there. Let alone enough hog production off shore.


This a graphic video, depicting how sick pigs are killed:
 

  Hide contents

https://www.kinderworld.org/videos/meat-industry/pigs-burned-alive-china/

 

You left out Ticks.  Plus, even if China has enough wherewithal to eradicate the disease in their country, they will keep getting re-infected from N. Korea, Vietnam and Burma where they do not have the public infrastructure or wealth to mount a successful eradication campaign. They have known about ASF for 100 years. Spain got it in the 1960s and it took them 35 years to eradicate it.  

[Fuck Tim Beck 3816]

So the Africans did this? 

[RollLeft 5045]

^African Jews i'm sure. 

Seems like quite an expense to rent that piece of equipment, then dig that hole, throw some chemical on them and then kill em with fire.  Surely a bolt stunner would be faster and more humane.  

[RollLeft 5045]

also...

 

[drt 638]

4 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

^African Jews i'm sure. 

Seems like quite an expense to rent that piece of equipment, then dig that hole, throw some chemical on them and then kill em with fire.  Surely a bolt stunner would be faster and more humane.  

Did not watch, but not sure that a bolt stunner kills viruses.  Fire does.  Sometimes.  

[Brisketexan 105139]

So, my idea for the National Strategic Bacon and Ribs Reserves doesn't seem so wacky now, does it?

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

with the tariffs, is China importing any US pork right now?

I saw something on TV about this (maybe VICE) and the Chinese were acting like it was pretty much already contained, lol.  Lots of road closures trying to stop the spread of the disease.  I think they said it had reached HK as well.

[Parliament 14260]

Did not watch, but not sure that a bolt stunner kills viruses.  Fire does.  Sometimes.  

Wouldn't be as fast, and would be rather messy. "Leaking" bodies leak germs.

with the tariffs, is China importing any US pork right now?
I saw something on TV about this (maybe VICE) and the Chinese were acting like it was pretty much already contained, lol.  Lots of road closures trying to stop the spread of the disease.  I think they said it had reached HK as well.

They're importing some, I believe. Because they have to. The international trade on frozen pork is rather small.

[Paco 1934]

So does this mean a shortage of sweet and sour pork? If so I’m bummed.

Just the sweet. There should be plenty of sour to go around.

[Steel Shank 9425]

Speaking of hogs, anybody ever bagged a fat Chinese chick?

Edited June 10, 2019 by Steel Shank

[markstanco 12577]

I killed a hog at my lease 3 weeks ago. Should have sold it to the Chinese instead of leaving it there to rot.

[Royalfan5 2354]

3 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

with the tariffs, is China importing any US pork right now?

I saw something on TV about this (maybe VICE) and the Chinese were acting like it was pretty much already contained, lol.  Lots of road closures trying to stop the spread of the disease.  I think they said it had reached HK as well.

They've been taking pork at a good clip the last few weeks. On the tariff front, Smithfield is owned by a Chinese state owned company, so it probably comes out in the wash. 

[atomheartbevo 89666]

Perfect timing for McDonald’s to start coming out with vegan burgers.

Maybe they are working on vegan versions of their sausage patties.  

Edited June 10, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[Parliament 14260]

They've been taking pork at a good clip the last few weeks. On the tariff front, Smithfield is owned by a Chinese state owned company, so it probably comes out in the wash. 

And they're importing corn into South Carolina to feed them.

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

They've been taking pork at a good clip the last few weeks. On the tariff front, Smithfield is owned by a Chinese state owned company, so it probably comes out in the wash. 

i saw that right the beginning of those tariffs, the exports approached zero.  And all of the specialty businesses like pre-export cold storage and shipping/staging places were dead in the water with nothing going out.  Plus, the pig farmers were used to selling things like snout/ears/feet to the Chinese and don't have that market domestically.

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

2 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

Speaking of hogs, anybody ever bagged a fat Chinese chick?

There are fat Chinese chicks?

[PRONG HORN 3146]

 

[Royalfan5 2354]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

They've been taking pork at a good clip the last few weeks. On the tariff front, Smithfield is owned by a Chinese state owned company, so it probably comes out in the wash. 

And they're importing corn into South Carolina to feed them.

They do that most years though, if Brazil second crop corn is at all close on price to US you can’t beat freight on floating north with ECB rail, and we’re good and fucked on floating corn down the rivers for while. 

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

9 hours ago, Parliament said:

We in agriculture have been watching this close. China's hog herd is something like 3x that of the US, and they've killed a third of it since August when ASF hit.

ASF is a viral disease WHICH IS NOT CONTAGIOUS TO HUMANS. (Wait until Facebook gets ahold of that.) It's extremely virulent though. It can be spread by tainted meat, feed, poop, and equipment. Chinese hog production is a combination of modern confinement and backyard production. Households in rural and semi-urban areas have a few hogs to eat their household scraps. It's the perfect way to spread the disease.

When the reality of all this hits, there's no way they can cover the shortfall with imports. There literally aren't enough refrigerated shipping containers to move enough frozen pork there. Let alone enough hog production off shore.


This a graphic video, depicting how sick pigs are killed:
 

  Reveal hidden contents

https://www.kinderworld.org/videos/meat-industry/pigs-burned-alive-china/

 

Dear god, can't they kill them THEN burn them?  Doesn't the military have some surplus rounds they could fire off to at least try to put them out of their misery?  And if you're going to burn them, maybe make sure there is enough fuel in the hole to ensure that the job is done.  Half the fuckers were still alive and kicking when the backhoe started filling in the pit.  Fucking Chinese, man.

[Royalfan5 2354]

Also, Smithfield really cranked up the protocols for custom farrowers on disease. You’re shower in, shower out, and change clothes building to building even if their connected. The Maschoffs have changed anything on custom finishers yet though.

[atomheartbevo 89666]

6 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

Dear god, can't they kill them THEN burn them?  Doesn't the military have some surplus rounds they could fire off to at least try to put them out of their misery? 

They are saving those rounds for Hong Kong.   

[Parliament 14260]

Also, Smithfield really cranked up the protocols for custom farrowers on disease. You’re shower in, shower out, and change clothes building to building even if their connected. The Maschoffs have changed anything on custom finishers yet though.

ASF in the US will be the unstoppable cannonball hitting the unmovable post. An incredibly virulent, fatal disease vs the best biosecurity we can do. And NOBODY knows who'll win that one.

[Parliament 14260]

Also, Smithfield really cranked up the protocols for custom farrowers on disease. You’re shower in, shower out, and change clothes building to building even if their connected. The Maschoffs have changed anything on custom finishers yet though.

ASF in the US will be the unstoppable cannonball hitting the unmovable post. An incredibly virulent, fatal disease vs the best biosecurity we can do. And NOBODY knows who'll win that one.

[Bevo 13577]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

Also, Smithfield really cranked up the protocols for custom farrowers on disease. You’re shower in, shower out, and change clothes building to building even if their connected. The Maschoffs have changed anything on custom finishers yet though.

ASF in the US will be the unstoppable cannonball hitting the unmovable post. An incredibly virulent, fatal disease vs the best biosecurity we can do. And NOBODY knows who'll win that one.

From what species did ASF originate?

[Brisketexan 105139]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

From what species did ASF originate?

[Bevo 13577]

Yikes!

 

I just saw that it was warthogs, bush pigs and ticks. It came to the world from South Africa through The Poti, Georgia. And most importantly for Briskethorn:

"Although the virus in wild boar and hogs does not manifest any signs of the disease, it remains highly contagious across all swine species and can survive in pigs for long periods of time post-slaughter – even in frozen carcasses. It is also important to note that curing and smoking pork products does not destroy the virus".

That is one BAMF virus.

[GringoSalado 1651]

18 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

I don't know.  I know he somehow tricks ranchers into paying him to trap them, paying him to remove them (live - USDA stuff), and then people pay him for the meat.  He is heavily involved with the Jager  Pro group (was over all of southwestern dealers at one point) so he has a shitload of those fancy traps at his disposal.  It's a side deal for him between other construction stuff he provides. 

We were selling them (live) direct to a processor in the dfw area that was processing and exporting them. Unfortunately I no longer have their contact info. and Google isn't refreshing my memory 

[Rockwell Torrey 1287]

15 hours ago, Parliament said:

We in agriculture have been watching this close. China's hog herd is something like 3x that of the US, and they've killed a third of it since August when ASF hit.

ASF is a viral disease WHICH IS NOT CONTAGIOUS TO HUMANS. (Wait until Facebook gets ahold of that.) It's extremely virulent though. It can be spread by tainted meat, feed, poop, and equipment. Chinese hog production is a combination of modern confinement and backyard production. Households in rural and semi-urban areas have a few hogs to eat their household scraps. It's the perfect way to spread the disease.

When the reality of all this hits, there's no way they can cover the shortfall with imports. There literally aren't enough refrigerated shipping containers to move enough frozen pork there. Let alone enough hog production off shore.


This a graphic video, depicting how sick pigs are killed:
 

  Hide contents

https://www.kinderworld.org/videos/meat-industry/pigs-burned-alive-china/

 

Pretty amazing video.  Imagine that is what a Justin Bieber concert sounds like when he walks on stage.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

So, a country with over 1,000,000,000 people, fairly modern armed forces, and nukes, may not be able to feed all of those people?  I'm not a naturally optimistic guy, and this news doesn't help me be one.

[ChickenSandwich 9836]

8 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So, a country with over 1,000,000,000 people, fairly modern armed forces, and nukes, may not be able to feed all of those people?  I'm not a naturally optimistic guy, and this news doesn't help me be one.

Different kind of climate change