The Retail Bloodbath

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,647]

75,000 stores could close by 2026.  Giant corporations like Payless etc... going out of business entirely.

https://moneysure.com/a/ch-a/retailers-closing-stores-in-2019/p-20


Most of these are bottom-of-the-food chain entry-level jobs that traditionally have hired the least employable segments of society .... teenagers, college students working their way through school etc...  What jobs will replace them?

  

[lemonlime 5,503]

Just now, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

75,000 stores could close by 2026.  Giant corporations like Payless etc... going out of business entirely.

https://moneysure.com/a/ch-a/retailers-closing-stores-in-2019/p-20


Most of these are bottom-of-the-food chain entry-level jobs that traditionally have hired the least employable segments of society .... teenagers, college students working their way through school etc...  What jobs will replace them?

  

Coal mining.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

imgur

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Seriously though. Pick and Pack. All the Amazon type businesses need "shopping cart" people.

[Asithappens 974]

8 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Coal mining.  

Yeah, I sho will miss my local retail coal mining store. 

Black-Lungs-R-Us, I'll miss ya.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,647]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Seriously though. Pick and Pack. All the Amazon type businesses need "shopping cart" people.

 

Robots are cheaper, more accurate, and don't take smoke breaks. 

[Asithappens 974]

Edited June 10, 2019 by Asithappens

[David Dennison 19,121]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Seriously though. Pick and Pack. All the Amazon type businesses need "shopping cart" people.

The labor force participation rate trendline is not moving in the right direction.

That is going to be a serious problem moving forward.

 

[Captainant 27,979]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The labor force participation rate trendline is not moving in the right direction.

That is going to be a serious problem moving forward.

Per-worker production and efficiency are at all-time highs, and yet pay is stagnant over the last several decades (as in within a percentage point or two of inflation, and not trending with wealth growth) leading to massive stratification of wealth and economic mobility. Ever hear of the gilded age? What happened next was SUPER fun right?

[Js1 85,765]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Per-worker production and efficiency are at all-time highs, and yet pay is stagnant over the last several decades (as in within a percentage point or two of inflation, and not trending with wealth growth) leading to massive stratification of wealth and economic mobility. Ever hear of the gilded age? What happened next was SUPER fun right?

After the Gilded Age was the Progressive Era. 

Taking down the corrupt politicians, confirmed.  Guillotine time.  Trust busting too. 

[alincoln 2,385]

Js1 going to get shot and killed by some billionaire's private army.

[David Dennison 19,121]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

After the Gilded Age was the Progressive Era. 

Taking down the corrupt politicians, confirmed.  Guillotine time.  Trust busting too. 

It's too bad WWI and the Roaring 20s got in the way. 

Then came the bad times.

[Michael Knight 13,049]

Universal wage

[Michael Knight 13,049]

11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Per-worker production and efficiency are at all-time highs, and yet pay is stagnant over the last several decades (as in within a percentage point or two of inflation, and not trending with wealth growth) leading to massive stratification of wealth and economic mobility. Ever hear of the gilded age? What happened next was SUPER fun right?

Because 90% of the wealth today isn't created from the output of labor but from the manipulation of existing wealth. 

[David Dennison 19,121]

Just now, Michael Knight said:

Universal wage

Sadly, we can't even get to universal health care. I'd hate to think what the fight over a universal wage would look like.

[Nivek 17,045]

Sadly, we can't even get to universal health care. I'd hate to think what the fight over a universal wage would look like.

Well one side seems to chide others on ObamaCare while being happy with the ACA changes to healthcare. The idiots just need to be marginalized again.

[Bookman 4,727]

We'll make Mexico pay for them.

[NeverMarryAStripper 22,030]

The labor force participation rate trendline is not moving in the right direction.
That is going to be a serious problem moving forward.
 

Just legalize all drugs and provide a government subsidy and they won’t care

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

17 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The same technology that makes their old minimum wage entry level jobs obsolete also allows college aged women to earn much more by simply setting up a webcam or using Instagram for prostitution ... so, they got that going for them, which is nice.

Besides, robots will be too expensive to risk losing in some jobs.

The world's oldest profession will probably be the world's last profession. That doesn't mean we should strive for that endgame. 

Robots won't be expensive. Different types will come down in price years after innovation just like everything else. In the military, expensive robots are already deemed more expendable than humans. Why would that be different in a job with lower risk?

[Guest Lobo]

Almost every one of the retail outlets on that list have two things in common:

-They make more money, even in today's climate, than the average bank in terms of per square foot revenue.

-When compared to the real estate locations of banks, their locations look like an underground prostate clinic in Sri Lanka.

We are watching the demise of real estate-heavy retail models slowly fold.  But think about this...bank staff are even more worthless than retail staff.  But the real kicker?  Banks aren't shoved up on the 17th floor downtown, they're on the first floor where the action is $65/foot.  They aren't in the middle of the strip center, they are on the encap where it's $35/foot.  They aren't behind the robust retail center, they're at the pad site.  They are always located in the best spot in the best commercial activity center.  And they're charging you for that premiere access in the way of lower interest to you and higher loan charges/fees/rates.  

Shitty retail at least has the decency to bury itself in low-cost, low-legacy leases in the middle of tall buildings, backs of strip centers, and hiding inside of grocery stores.  Banks still stick their chest out at prime locations thinking they're doing you a favor.  We need banks, not branches.  nevermind the G&A payroll waste of these places fully staffed with 12 people just hoping you'll come in and justify their existence.  They're still spending money on real estate locations.  And then they're spending like drunken sailors on technology and digitization in the hopes that customers for some weird reason feel they need both.  How long before Americans realize that over-saturating both platforms with a CapEx only results in the consumer getting fucked somehow?  Blockbuster kept doubling down on real estate presence and actually deployed as much as Netflix early on in digital services as Netflix.  And they were buried for their sins.  But a bank over-spends in both spaces with only half the results to show and they just arrogantly shout, "We are giving the consumer what they want...which is half of both at four times the price."  Big Banks didn't overtake CFI's because of better service or better locations...they overtook CFI's because smaller banks can't figure out what the fuck they are and while they contemplate it...they keep blowing more money on real estate because they've been moronically conditioned to think that more branches=more money.  Radio Shack felt the same way and I'm gonna go put a third bullet in the back of its head.  

[Aqua Buddha 14,656]

The retail companies going out of business were shitty companies.  Brick and mortar retail is far from over.  It's still the cheapest distribution model from a total landed cost perspective.

[Helobious 9,506]

6 hours ago, David Dennison said:

The labor force participation rate trendline is not moving in the right direction.

That is going to be a serious problem moving forward.

 

Something will be figured out, because money matters. The government can't operate if >50% of the population is unemployed. Just as importantly, the big companies won't be happy if no one has any money to buy their shit. 

[NowThis 931]

legalize pot nationally and prostitution too.

[Guest Lobo]

We need to separate out though, business/retail models and then also their real estate holdings.  Blockbuster and Sears and Radio Shack didn't die right away because of their refusal to offer customers what they wanted.  Those businesses, and hundreds like them died, because of their albatross real estate expenditures.  

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

3 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Am I really normally so depraved on here that you think that was a serious post and not gallows humor?

Maybe it's you. Maybe it's me. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8,350]

Dumb question amnesty, @lobo: How do we make money off the upcoming branch bank real estate apocalypse? I am not being sarcastic. 

[Guest Lobo]

It's not an apocalypse actually.  but  A rather well-known investment firm already has a dry powder fund to short publicly traded REIT's that are bank branch heavy.  You can get really tactical with it by tracking which banks are being merged/acquired, but the real key is which CFI's are getting digital-heavy and therefore most likely to be able to fold up their least productive branches.  Service providers to these CFI's can't stop broadcasting this information because they are quite proud of how well their digitizing branches, just gotta sift through the data and merry it up with the real estate data behind their myriad branches.  What if we could go back in time and short the REIT's that were Blockbuster-heavy or Bookstore-heavy?  This is obviously more nuanced with so many players in the space, but the data is easier to get than it was 15 years ago as well.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,551]

I had to buy some otc drug the other day.  Walgreens, cvs and Kroger had it for $28.  Amazon had it for $21 with a 1 day delivery.  I was cool waiting one day to save $7.  

I assume that the brick and mortar stores either can’t compete in price and they hope for ignorant shoppers.  

[Guest]

How many teens/ college students do you know who cannot find traditional part time/ school jobs?

 

Just keep listening to the news about how bad the world is and ignoring the real world results

 

Those brick and mortar stores are closing because their owners refused to change with the times.  There is still money in people's pockets and they are dying to spend it... consumerism ain’t going away, and even that Amazon order ain’t gonna pick itself.

[BrickHorn 18,326]

You know what else is facing five Goliaths? America. Al-Qaeda. Global warming. Sex predators. Mercury poisoning. So do we just give up?

[Parliament 14,377]

I had to buy some otc drug the other day.  Walgreens, cvs and Kroger had it for $28.  Amazon had it for $21 with a 1 day delivery.  I was cool waiting one day to save $7.  
I assume that the brick and mortar stores either can’t compete in price and they hope for ignorant shoppers.  

And there's a flip side. I went to Menards Sunday looking for steel pegboard. They didn't have it. I hate shopping so in the pickup, I bought it on Amazon. I have no idea if it was cheaper, more expensive or what.

Mighta paid somewhat more than brick and mortar. Don't care. Clicked the link and bought it.

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

You know what else is facing five Goliaths? America. Al-Qaeda. Global warming. Sex predators. Mercury poisoning. So do we just give up?

 Ever since Kmart and blockbuster closed, we have just been in dire straits...

Edited June 11, 2019 by slorch

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

12 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Just legalize all drugs and provide a government subsidy and they won’t care

Turns out opium is the opiate of the masses. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I had to buy some otc drug the other day.  Walgreens, cvs and Kroger had it for $28.  Amazon had it for $21 with a 1 day delivery.  I was cool waiting one day to save $7.  

I assume that the brick and mortar stores either can’t compete in price and they hope for ignorant shoppers.  

Amazon provides a unique problem for competing retailers, both online and brick and mortar.  It can and does run it's entire retail operation at a loss due to the success of AWS.  In 1Q 2018, Amazon had about 2 billion in profit. When removing AWS and Prime profits, it had a 2 billion dollar loss. No other retailer can do that. Not even Walmart. 

It should have antitrust breakup written all over it. It likely won't though. 

[NowThis 931]

i browse Amazon for the reviews and ratings but always purchase the new item (buy it now) on Ebay.  No need for a silly annual membership, you get extremely good & fast contact with the seller, delivery is super fast, and shipping is usually free.  It's almost always a better deal on Ebay for the same new item.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

16 minutes ago, NowThis said:

i browse Amazon for the reviews and ratings but always purchase the new item (buy it now) on Ebay.  No need for a silly annual membership, you get extremely good & fast contact with the seller, delivery is super fast, and shipping is usually free.  It's almost always a better deal on Ebay for the same new item.

Hardly anyone joins Prime just for free delivery. They join for all the other shit.  Prime video mostly.  Free delivery is pretty much just an add-on perk at this point, and it is another way that Amazon uses profit from an unrelated business segment to sell and deliver widgets to your door at a loss. 

eBay is even worse. It's closest competitor is Ali Express these days. It's littered with direct from China products. That being said, I rarely see it have cheaper prices than Amazon on things I look for. 

[NowThis 931]

3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Hardly anyone joins Prime just for free delivery. They join for all the other shit.  Prime video mostly.  Free delivery is pretty much just an add-on perk at this point, and it is another way that Amazon uses profit from an unrelated business segment to sell and deliver widgets to your door at a loss. 

eBay is even worse. It's closest competitor is Ali Express these days. It's littered with direct from China products. That being said, I rarely see it have cheaper prices than Amazon on things I look for. 

Amazon makes small items difficult due to min purchase for free shipping.  Ebay has new US / Euro goods too, has everything that a consumer could want.  Smart shoppers use Ebay.  I usually only buy less than $500 annually, so why pay for a membership.  Prime video? who cares? It's all shit anyway

Edited June 11, 2019 by NowThis

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

41 minutes ago, NowThis said:

Amazon makes small items difficult due to min purchase for free shipping.  Ebay has new US / Euro goods too, has everything that a consumer could want.  Smart shoppers use Ebay.  I usually only buy less than $500 annually, so why pay for a membership.  Prime video? who cares? It's all shit anyway

Prime video is actually pretty good. 

[tantric superman 4,668]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I had to buy some otc drug the other day.  Walgreens, cvs and Kroger had it for $28.  Amazon had it for $21 with a 1 day delivery.  I was cool waiting one day to save $7.  

I assume that the brick and mortar stores either can’t compete in price and they hope for ignorant shoppers.  

The corner Walgreens/CVS has replaced the StopNGo.  It's on the last light before my house.  About every other day, I get a text from the wife asking if I have time please pick up _____ at Walgreens.  If I am picking up a six pack of beer and "something sweet" its worth a few bucks to pick up the random OTC drug.

So to me it's less an issue of buying individual items cheaper than getting multiple items in one fell swoop -- the kind of items you don't really remember thinking about until you are at the store.

The 7-11 is across the street and I rarely go there. 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,276]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I had to buy some otc drug the other day.  Walgreens, cvs and Kroger had it for $28.  Amazon had it for $21 with a 1 day delivery.  I was cool waiting one day to save $7.  

I assume that the brick and mortar stores either can’t compete in price and they hope for ignorant shoppers.  

Enjoy your counterfeit Chinese drugs.

[thrillhammer 684]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 3:28 PM, Captainant said:

Per-worker production and efficiency are at all-time highs, and yet pay is stagnant over the last several decades (as in within a percentage point or two of inflation, and not trending with wealth growth) leading to massive stratification of wealth and economic mobility. Ever hear of the gilded age? What happened next was SUPER fun right?

I saw a stat the other day that I thought was telling of current society:  profits up 70%, cost of living up 8%, wages up 3%.

[happyfunball 481]

[WBT 20,751]

I'm not sure why Aldi is included in the dollar store grouping

[Guest]

On 6/11/2019 at 5:41 PM, thrillhammer said:

I saw a stat the other day that I thought was telling of current society:  profits up 70%, cost of living up 8%, wages up 3%.

Profits up 70%?

 

Link please.   What fucking industry?  LOlz.  Not an established one.

[UTDD 362]

On ‎6‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 12:41 PM, thrillhammer said:

I saw a stat the other day that I thought was telling of current society:  profits up 70%, cost of living up 8%, wages up 3%.

70%?  Overall?

[tucker 238]

Some of these closures are due to PE bad business practice 

 

[RDCanecutter 26,553]

Y'all are missing the point. People don't go shop big box stores for convenience or price. People shop  big box stores so they can walk in rhythm to an echoing rendition of Toto's Africa.

[thrillhammer 684]

On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 9:16 PM, slorch said:

Profits up 70%?

 

Link please.   What fucking industry?  LOlz.  Not an established one.

it was one particular industry, cant remember which one or what I was reading at the time.  with those kinds of margins, you'd think it would be energy or healthcare related.

[Brisketexan 105,586]

All I know is....we have at least one damned package, usually two, sometimes more, show up at my house EVERY DAMNED DAY.  Jesus my family buys a lotta shit.