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2019-2020 NBA Season Thread

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21468

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Toronto lacks the one absolute, playoff-proven alpha dog that is normally required to win a championship.  Siakam, despite the massive leap he took this year, is not there yet IMO.  The only real ensemble team to win a title with teamwork, tough defense, and grit in my lifetime is the 04 Pistons.  You need a super-duper star.  Bird, Magic, Isiah, Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan,  Shaq, Kobe, Garnett, Pierce, Wade,  Dirk, Lebron, Steph, Durant, Kwhai.  Those guys represent every nba championship since ‘84 except for the ‘04 Pistons.  You need one of those guys.

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Chad

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One team that is being overlooked is Portland. They've arguably played the toughest slate since the season rebooted and managed to go 4-2 losing by 4 to Boston and 5 to the Clippers while pulling off wins against Houston, Denver, Memphis and Philly. The Lakers have dropped 4 of their last 5 and could easily drop another vs Denver, if a hot Portland team wins out and faces the Lakers as the #8 seed could Portland possibly catch the Lakers sleepwalking and advance to the semis? It's 2020 and all kinds of crazy shit is going down, so why not?

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Brothahorn

Brothahorn 10085

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7 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

Toronto lacks the one absolute, playoff-proven alpha dog that is normally required to win a championship.  Siakam, despite the massive leap he took this year, is not there yet IMO.  The only real ensemble team to win a title with teamwork, tough defense, and grit in my lifetime is the 04 Pistons.  You need a super-duper star.  Bird, Magic, Isiah, Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan,  Shaq, Kobe, Garnett, Pierce, Wade,  Dirk, Lebron, Steph, Durant, Kwhai.  Those guys represent every nba championship since ‘84 except for the ‘04 Pistons.  You need one of those guys.

Can't believe I'm saying this but Lowery might be that guy. I thought he was just a knucklehead, but he impressed me this year. He's got the fight to dominate the Bucks backcourt in the playoffs. Toronto may not need a star to make it to the finals. Between Nurse and Lowery, they could pull it off.

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21468

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1 minute ago, Brothahorn said:

Can't believe I'm saying this but Lowery might be that guy. I thought he was just a knucklehead, but he impressed me this year. He's got the fight to dominate the Bucks backcourt in the playoffs. Toronto may not need a star to make it to the finals. Between Nurse and Lowery, they could pull it off.

Maybe.  It would be a really interesting turn for a late career guy.  I almost included the Celtics in the ensemble argument, because you could certainly argue that Pierce/KG couldn’t do it as the lead dog, but got it done as co-lead dogs.  You could make the argument about the Mavs as well, but there was a pretty clear cut hierarchy on that team.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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Nice game going on between the Lakers and Nuggets at halftime. Lakers and Nuggets played like it was a real game. I think we may see both teams limit the time of the starters in the 2nd half. MPJ had a great first half. So did AD. 

No offense to anyone, but LBJ isn't the MVP of the Lakers this season - AD is. But I suppose this might be his last real hurrah - which apparently means he should win the MVP. IMO - giannis or luka are more deserving. But they have many years left to fight for that honor, I suppose. 

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TommyGufano

TommyGufano 6021

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1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Nice game going on between the Lakers and Nuggets at halftime. Lakers and Nuggets played like it was a real game. I think we may see both teams limit the time of the starters in the 2nd half. MPJ had a great first half. So did AD. 

No offense to anyone, but LBJ isn't the MVP of the Lakers this season - AD is. But I suppose this might be his last real hurrah - which apparently means he should win the MVP. IMO - giannis or luka are more deserving. But they have many years left to fight for that honor, I suppose. 

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/816/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1785/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18971

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11 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

Yeah, Houston has talent and might be better than some of my list. I don't think Harden, Russ, and D'Antoni have the balls and toughness needed to win a championship. I also think the Lakers and Clippers are goofing off and will be much more ferocious in the playoffs. The Lakers can use the first round as an easy warm up series, and the Clippers will be healthy and ready and (fuck) Kawhi will turn into playoff Kawhi. I think they're the clear frontrunners at this point.

Toronto is good team, extraordinarily well-coached and disciplined and plays with heart and grit. They probably don't have the raw talent, but you never know. I actually don't think Milwaukee has a real chance. They are soft and oddly built for a playoff run. Giannis will get worn down in the every-other-night condensed format, as the Bucks ask so much of him every night. I have similar concerns about the Lakers and LeBron and the condensed format.

IMO the Clips are the clear favorite. The energy that Kawhi and Paul George and Lou Williams make the other team exert on both ends of the floor every other night is going to be Chinese water torture to their opponents. If anyone can take them more than 5 games or so, that other team is going to be beat to shit and exhausted by game 6.

Though I can see some universe where LAL plays LAC in the WCF and LAL somehow sneaks by the Clips in 7, but is so burnt out and exhausted that they lose to an Eastern team they shouldn't. Similar to what the 2008 Hornets did to the Spurs by wearing them out in 7 so much that the Spurs never competed in the next series against the Lakers. Or even like GSW last year, though that was more injury than exhaustion.

 

I'd probably handicap it something like:

Clips 2:1

Lakers 4:1

Raptors 6:1

Bucks 12:1

Field: 10:1

This is legitimately a terrible take. I would take all of the Bucks at 12-1 that you want to give me and fade the clips at 2-1 all day long. 
the Bucks are bored. They deserve to be the favorite and are better than everyone else in basketball as they’ve shown racking up, before the bubble, a historically great team by the numbers. This entire bubble thing was boredom for them. 
I’m a Rockets honk and no way would I have them anywhere near the top 4. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14468

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47 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Laker starters squeaked by the Nuggets' bench in the 4th quarter and needed a near buzzer beater. Lakerland should be worried. Let's get these playoffs started. 

Lakers have really bad guard play, because Bradley is out, and Rondo is injured. If Pope misses any time in the playoffs they are in a world of hurt.

Caruso, Cook, Waiters, and Green are their top guards. Portland and Houston if they stay at 4, are going to be tough teams for the Lakers to beat in 7 games.

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

No offense to anyone, but LBJ isn't the MVP of the Lakers this season - AD is. But I suppose this might be his last real hurrah - which apparently means he should win the MVP.

Yeah good luck with this debate, bro. LeBron is still the best player in the league according to some people.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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This is legitimately a terrible take. I would take all of the Bucks at 12-1 that you want to give me and fade the clips at 2-1 all day long. 
the Bucks are bored. They deserve to be the favorite and are better than everyone else in basketball as they’ve shown racking up, before the bubble, a historically great team by the numbers. This entire bubble thing was boredom for them. 
I’m a Rockets honk and no way would I have them anywhere near the top 4. 
It's not a terrible take at all, but I actually understand the game of basketball.
I'll take the Clips vs. the Bucks straight up if you want.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18971

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3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

It's not a terrible take at all, but I actually understand the game of basketball.
I'll take the Clips vs. the Bucks straight up if you want.

Vegas has the Bucks at +250 right now. You have then at 12-1. That’s really really really far off. 
clips might beat the Bucks if they played them- it’s certainly conceivable. But they wouldn’t be 6-1 favorites which is essentially what your odds have them. 
I should clarify- the analysis wasn’t bad- just the odds. Way too low for the Bucks. Way too high for the raptors. Field probably seems about right at 10-1 for the other 12 playoff teams. And 10-1 is pretty short odds for how the rest of the field after the top 4 would usually be. That demonstrates very wide open this year compared to typical years. 

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BradInATX

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21 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

Toronto lacks the one absolute, playoff-proven alpha dog that is normally required to win a championship.  Siakam, despite the massive leap he took this year, is not there yet IMO.  The only real ensemble team to win a title with teamwork, tough defense, and grit in my lifetime is the 04 Pistons.  You need a super-duper star.  Bird, Magic, Isiah, Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan,  Shaq, Kobe, Garnett, Pierce, Wade,  Dirk, Lebron, Steph, Durant, Kwhai.  Those guys represent every nba championship since ‘84 except for the ‘04 Pistons.  You need one of those guys.

Yeah, good points here. I've never been convinced that you have to have an MVP type player to win a title, but year after year it seems to go that way. The most recent Celtics and Mavs title teams didn't have an MVP level player. But they did have great veteran hall-of-famers just outside of their primes. I guess I wonder whether it's a leadership thing ("alpha dog") or just that an MVP candidate type player is a requirement to win a title. I tend to think it's the former. 

The Spurs were also sort of an anomaly because I don't know if Tim Duncan was ever really the "alpha dog". Incredible teammate, sure. But you could argue that he was really only the "heart and soul" of one championship team in 2003. In 1999 they had Robinson and a big group of veterans. By 2005 it was probably Manu, and in 2014 it was a combination of guys (although Kawhi was clearly the best player).

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BradInATX

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10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Vegas has the Bucks at +250 right now. You have then at 12-1. That’s really really really far off. 
clips might beat the Bucks if they played them- it’s certainly conceivable. But they wouldn’t be 6-1 favorites which is essentially what your odds have them. 
I should clarify- the analysis wasn’t bad- just the odds. Way too low for the Bucks. Way too high for the raptors. Field probably seems about right at 10-1 for the other 12 playoff teams. And 10-1 is pretty short odds for how the rest of the field after the top 4 would usually be. That demonstrates very wide open this year compared to typical years. 

 

I think you, and Vegas, are underestimating the stress that the every-other-day playoff series schedule is going to put on Giannis. They rely on him for so many hard minutes on both ends and they can't win without them. I think he's going to get worn down. Especially if they play the Clippers. He's going to have to work on offense against Leonard and George's stifling, active defense, then turn around and defend the post against some of the best slashers in basketball. 

Maybe the bubble will eliminate some travel fatigue, but they would wear him out. Not a knock on Giannis, he's incredible, more commentary that I don't think you can ask one player to carry so much weight on both ends, especially in this playoff format.

The Clips have the perfect team for a condensed format. They'll wear you down and they have almost an entire team full of young, incredibly well-conditioned guys that force the other team to expend energy on both ends. Their only risk is a Kawhi injury, but last I checked he's not trying to leave the Clippers, so he's unlikely to fake one this year.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18523

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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I think you, and Vegas, are underestimating the stress that the every-other-day playoff series schedule is going to put on Giannis. They rely on him for so many hard minutes on both ends and they can't win without them. I think he's going to get worn down. Especially if they play the Clippers. He's going to have to work on offense against Leonard and George's stifling, active defense, then turn around and defend the post against some of the best slashers in basketball. 

Maybe the bubble will eliminate some travel fatigue, but they would wear him out. Not a knock on Giannis, he's incredible, more commentary that I don't think you can ask one player to carry so much weight on both ends, especially in this playoff format.

The Clips have the perfect team for a condensed format. They'll wear you down and they have almost an entire team full of young, incredibly well-conditioned guys that force the other team to expend energy on both ends. Their only risk is a Kawhi injury, but last I checked he's not trying to leave the Clippers, so he's unlikely to fake one this year.

Milwaukee is one of, if not the, deepest team in the league. Giannis is only 25 years old, he's averaged just over 30 minutes per game this season (one of the lowest loads ever for an MVP) and he's had four months off. The Bucks are likely going to coast through the east. I would be shocked if they played more than one series that even went six games before the finals. I don't think fatigue is going to be a problem. The west is going to be a dogfight. Every series is going to be hotly contested. 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3236

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12 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

No offense to anyone, but LBJ isn't the MVP of the Lakers this season - AD is. But I suppose this might be his last real hurrah - which apparently means he should win the MVP. IMO - giannis or luka are more deserving. But they have many years left to fight for that honor, I suppose. 

statistically LBJ is more valuable, but i see your point.  AD is the hammer the lakers go to down the stretch.  

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21468

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15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

The Spurs were also sort of an anomaly because I don't know if Tim Duncan was ever really the "alpha dog". Incredible teammate, sure. But you could argue that he was really only the "heart and soul" of one championship team in 2003. In 1999 they had Robinson and a big group of veterans. By 2005 it was probably Manu, and in 2014 it was a combination of guys (although Kawhi was clearly the best player).

Pop.  Much like Belichick and Brady, you can’t really separate Pop and Duncan. Would they have had success without each other?  Most likely, but not as much as they had together. 

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BradInATX

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5 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Milwaukee is one of, if not the, deepest team in the league. Giannis is only 25 years old, he's averaged just over 30 minutes per game this season (one of the lowest loads ever for an MVP) and he's had four months off. The Bucks are likely going to coast through the east. I would be shocked if they played more than one series that even went six games before the finals. I don't think fatigue is going to be a problem. The west is going to be a dogfight. Every series is going to be hotly contested. 

He is getting low minutes for the same reason his supporting cast looks good. Because they're playing in the dogshit Eastern Conference. Playoffs are a different animal.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18971

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6 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Milwaukee is one of, if not the, deepest team in the league. Giannis is only 25 years old, he's averaged just over 30 minutes per game this season (one of the lowest loads ever for an MVP) and he's had four months off. The Bucks are likely going to coast through the east. I would be shocked if they played more than one series that even went six games before the finals. I don't think fatigue is going to be a problem. The west is going to be a dogfight. Every series is going to be hotly contested. 

Yep yep yep. 
I think you guys are both right about Milwaukee. They are very deep in quality players. They also don’t have anyone other than Giannis that you want as a tent pole for the team. Lakers, Clips, Rockets all have two guys that are all NBA types and we are used to teams that have 3 (or in Golden states case 4) recently winning it all. This Bucks team remind me of the 93-94 rockets with one mvp and a collective around him. I think the Bucks supporting cast was better, but I’d obviously take peak Hakeem. 

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aggie08

aggie08 21424

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1 minute ago, conVINCEd said:

Pop.  Much like Belichick and Brady, you can’t really separate Pop and Duncan. Would they have had success without each other?  Most likely, but not as much as they had together. 

Exactly. That "selfless, no nonsense, sacrifice individual accolades for team success"mantra that coaches like Belichick and Pop preach doesn't work unless your best player buys in.

TD was the unquestioned leader and heart and soul of San Antonio pretty much from the moment he was drafted with the example he set. Leadership doesn't have to be about "being the alpha" or all that "rah-rah" crap.

 

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18523

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8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

He is getting low minutes for the same reason his supporting cast looks good. Because they're playing in the dogshit Eastern Conference. Playoffs are a different animal.

You do realize they are still playing the dogshit Eastern Conference in the playoffs, right? You think the 32-39 Magic are going to wear them out in round 1? Or the 44-27 Heat or the  43-28 Pacers in round 2? They all suck. The Bucks will likely dispatch both teams in short series and then have rest. The Bucks are going to have one competitive series against either the Raptors or the Celtics and if they win that, they play in the finals. I would be more worried about them being rusty than being fatigued.

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TommyGufano

TommyGufano 6021

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11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

He is getting low minutes for the same reason his supporting cast looks good. Because they're playing in the dogshit Eastern Conference. Playoffs are a different animal.

He avgs 2 more minutes and scores 4.5 more pts per game against the west.

West is considerably deeper, but 1-6 (if Philly was healthy) in the east is pretty level with 1-6 in the east. It's not 2001 anymore

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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7 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Exactly. That "selfless, no nonsense, sacrifice individual accolades for team success"mantra that coaches like Belichick and Pop preach doesn't work unless your best player buys in.

TD was the unquestioned leader and heart and soul of San Antonio pretty much from the moment he was drafted with the example he set. Leadership doesn't have to be about "being the alpha" or all that "rah-rah" crap.

 

I don't agree with your take here. In 1999 it was Robinson (though we all knew who the better player was, already). In 2005 it was really a combination of guys, but Manu was the "heart", at least in the playoffs. I don't agree that there was always a clear alpha dog/leader on the Spurs. It was a group effort.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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3 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

You do realize they are still playing the dogshit Eastern Conference in the playoffs, right? You think the 32-39 Magic are going to wear them out in round 1? Or the 44-27 Heat or the  43-28 Pacers in round 2? They all suck. The Bucks will likely dispatch both teams in short series and then have rest. The Bucks are going to have one competitive series against either the Raptors or the Celtics and if they win that, they play in the finals. I would be more worried about them being rusty than being fatigued.

 

1 minute ago, TommyGufano said:

He avgs 2 more minutes and scores 4.5 more pts per game against the west.

West is considerably deeper, but 1-6 (if Philly was healthy) in the east is pretty level with 1-6 in the east. It's not 2001 anymore

 

 

Sure. But now imagine playing five, six, seven games in a row over a week and a half against the West.

I'm not saying the Bucks aren't going to win the East. They only face one real potential challenge in Toronto. But I don't expect them to be competitive in the Finals if they get there.

Good thing about this debate is that we're going to find out who was right pretty soon.

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21468

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2 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

You do realize they are still playing the dogshit Eastern Conference in the playoffs, right? You think the 32-39 Magic are going to wear them out in round 1? Or the 44-27 Heat or the  43-28 Pacers in round 2? They all suck. The Bucks will likely dispatch both teams in short series and then have rest. The Bucks are going to have one competitive series against either the Raptors or the Celtics and if they win that, they play in the finals. I would be more worried about them being rusty than being fatigued.

Small disagreement here.  The East isn’t dogshit because of the Heat or Pacers.  It’s dogshit because they have 6 teams who didn’t qualify for the bubble.  That is a lot of nights off for East teams during the course of an entire season.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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8 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Small disagreement here.  The East isn’t dogshit because of the Heat or Pacers.  It’s dogshit because they have 6 teams who didn’t qualify for the bubble.  That is a lot of nights off for East teams during the course of an entire season.

 

Yeah, this. I'm not shitting on anyone here because this conversation is amongst guys that I know are knowledgeable about the game. But we're talking two completely different things. Averaging 30 minutes when you can take entire halves of games off because you're playing a weak schedule on rest. 

I mean, at one point the Bucks played: Chicago, Atlanta, Portland, Detroit, Utah, Atlanta, Cleveland, Charlotte, NY Knicks, and Detroit over a three-week stretch. There are two games in there in which Giannis even had to show up and break a sweat.

You just can't compare that to playing: LA Clippers, LA Clippers, LA Clippers, LA Clippers, (maybe) LA Clippers every other night. I know I'm going against the grain with my thoughts on Milwaukee, but ignoring the difference between an Eastern Conference regular season schedule vs. a playoff series against a team like the Clippers is ridiculous.

 

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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3444

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13 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Laker starters squeaked by the Nuggets' bench in the 4th quarter and needed a near buzzer beater. Lakerland should be worried. Let's get these playoffs started. 

For my entire basketball fandom I can't help but love highly talented, offensive ensembled teams like Denver.  Typically to be successful with an ensemble squad it requires that the team be defensively focused,  but for once I'd love for a team like Denver to win it all.  Watching them hang last night with LA for basically the last half of the 4th qtr with damn near their C team on the court was immensely fun to see.    

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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They remind me of the 2015 or 2018 Cavs minus peak LeBron. Their roster is a fucking trainwreck and they will be in trouble on nights they don't get 60 from LeBron and AD. 

Which, they could get every night. They are still a Finals contender - but they arent exactly inspiring confidence right now. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Man, speaking of teams with unheralded players and just well coached hard-nosed basketball, I'm watching the FSSW replays of the Spurs/Pistons 2005 NBA Finals. Two incredibly tough and bad ass, nasty defense playing teams. I remember at the time a lot of people complaining that it was boring because there were low scoring games. I thought that was crazy talk. Two teams that respected and also beat the hell out of each other for seven games. I'm a bit biased though as a spurs fan.

Kid Rock in the stands sighting lmao

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TommyGufano

TommyGufano 6021

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36 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Unfortunately, as spectacular as it has been, Dame’s gonna wear himself out getting Portland into the playoffs, and run out of gas in the playoffs.  He’s had the volume cranked up to 11 for the last 2 weeks.

He'll have time to rest when Phoenix knocks Portland out. Phoenix may never lose again.

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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26 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

unheralded players

Idk. Timmy, Manu, Tony, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry on one side - Chauncey, Rip, Sheed, Big Ben on the other. That series had some names.

But yeah - a lot of hard nosed, team first players that didn't demand the spotlight. 

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