The Supremes

JohnnyRage · February 11

On 2/8/2024 at 1:24 PM, bolverk said:

Wasn't Lincoln kept from being on the ballot in several southern states? If so, what was the legal basis for that?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but back then you did not vote for the president. You voted for a citizen that was running to be a member of that electoral college. That person would have pledged that he would vote for a specific candidate. This potential electorate would stump and also be advertised in the local newspapers as well as be on that paper's pre-printed out ballot slate that a voter could submit.

There were no potential electoral college candidates that were willing to pledge their vote to Lincoln because of the culture, lack of political machinery, no newspaper support, and the real threat of violence. So there were no options of electoral college candidates for Lincoln. The same thing happened in the North.

bolverk · February 11

52 minutes ago, JohnnyRage said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but back then you did not vote for the president. You voted for a citizen that was running to be a member of that electoral college. That person would have pledged that he would vote for a specific candidate. This potential electorate would stump and also be advertised in the local newspapers as well as be on that paper's pre-printed out ballot slate that a voter could submit.

There were no potential electoral college candidates that were willing to pledge their vote to Lincoln because of the culture, lack of political machinery, no newspaper support, and the real threat of violence. So there were no options of electoral college candidates for Lincoln. The same thing happened in the North.

Yeah, you're right. Looks like I succumbed to FAKE NEWS.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/01/08/false-claim-states-removed-lincoln-from-ballot-in-1860-fact-check/72121760007/

Dnaguy · February 11

12 hours ago, NWBuck said:

Speak for yourself. I was raised by the television, like any good American

Pato del Muerto · February 11

On 2/10/2024 at 9:59 AM, David Dennison said:

I'd like to think Gen X will be different, but whatever.

Remember all those communist hippies in the late 60s? Now they are 70-90 years old, and how does that bloc vote?

Neonmoon · February 11

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Remember all those communist hippies in the late 60s? Now they are 70-90 years old, and how does that bloc vote?

The hippie movement was big, but there was still a LOT more people that didn’t participate in it.

Surly Bevo · February 11

You get older you have more to lose you’re easier to scare. It’s a tale as old as time One party is and has been much better at hitting the bogeyman note.

Gatorubet · February 11

20 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Looking at those numbers, Millenials will prefer Republicans as they age, too. My guess is, so will Gen Z.

And so it goes.

That is always true regarding one’s personal economic fortunes. Trying to increase wealth and hold onto it to help those in your nuclear family and ease your retirement will always be prime motivators. That said, no way they are buying into the hate gays, hate drag queens, hate brown people, hate Black people, hate Muslim people - all buttons being pushed in the same manner that make the olds react now. I have serious doubts that younger generations will have the same need for Old Glory robot insurance. At least not for those issues.

I was the last Rockefeller Republican to become an independent because I wanted a strong economy to be the most important factor in our country’s continued success, as good jobs and a good economy floats all boats. It increases taxes, reduces debt and helps everyone. It increases personal satisfaction and tamps down the unrest and bad decision-making when people are hurting broke and scared. As a Rockefeller Republican, I was also liberal on social issues. The only thing the GQP runs on now are hot button shitty social issues like the ones I mentioned above. So long as the GQP keeps pushing those drag queen/waves of brown murdering rapists crossing the border social issues to the forefront, you will not see the same number of younger people turn into GQPs. They just won’t.

956 Worldwide · February 11

My take on old people and politics (which I feel myself as I get old) is that old people don’t really miss “the good old days.” They miss being young. All of a sudden the world doesn’t seem made for you and open for opportunities and also doesn’t seem so safe anymore (because you have the lived experience of things going wrong and being responsible for other people). And we olds confuse things and think that if we can make things stay the same way, or go back to how they were, then we will feel the same way we did when we were young.

And I don’t think we should take away the olds’ right to vote, because they are affected by the government in place. Young people are also capable of making bad choices based on their impulses and emotions. In a democracy we balance rashness and progress with conservatism and prudence, until assholes come along and steer us towards radicalism.

Nivek · February 11

The economy performs better under democratic leadership than republican. Facts have a liberal bias. And society progresses one funeral at a time.

gmr548 · February 12

On 2/10/2024 at 4:01 PM, longhornmatt said:

Y’all can try to project your own feelings onto the rest of Gen X all you want, but it’s not because they’re so objective and above it all that they disapprove of Democrats but plan to vote D anyway. Gen X is solidly Republican according to virtually every poll. And markedly more Republican as they’ve gotten older, just like Boomers (and actually more R leaning than Boomers in 2022 midterms).

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/poll-gen-x-gen-z-take-different-political-paths-rcna66264

Your generation is MAGA. Deal with it. It doesn’t reflect on you individually.

Yep. Gen X has consistently been the most pro-GOP generation over the past 8 years. It makes sense. The first Gen X'ers came of age as Carter's presidency was falling apart, most of them came of age under the Reagan Revolution. That was followed up by the 90's, a pretty conservative decade politically despite having a Democrat in the White House for most of the decade.

The Democratic platform has moved to the left since then, no doubt about it. Of course, while Democrats have moved the the left, Republicans have gone even further right; so far they've fallen off the rails and into fascism entirely. But Gen X didn't come up with fascism as the boogeyman, it was communism and socialism.

I don't think Gen X has gotten more conservative. I think they have always been conservative and the low effort "SoCiAlIsM!1!1" cries from the GOP that we clown on Boomers and Silents for falling for also probably work on Gen X because the environment in which they came of age.

gmr548 · February 12

To @David Dennison's point on Millennials, I disagree. I think that bloc saw the margin thin between 2012 and 2022 because a lot more 26-41 year olds participate than do 18-30 year olds, and Trump in particular has activated a previously non-engaged segment of the electorate for the GOP. 2022 vs 2012 generic ballot also isn't the best apples to apples comparison given the presidential vs midterm and party-in-power dynamics.

Long term, Millennials came of age as GWB's popularity tanked post-Iraq and Katrina, and the economy followed; saw Obama get elected and lead the recovery only for the GOP to completely meltdown, and have watched the MAGA movement grow as they enter their prime earning and family-rearing years. The Republican brand is probably going to be toxic to Millennials in aggregate as long as it remotely resembles what it does today.

wildcat09 · February 12

20 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

My take on old people and politics (which I feel myself as I get old) is that old people don’t really miss “the good old days.” They miss being young.

This is what it boils down to, every time. Tens of millions of people remember when they felt safer and happier than they do now and don't realize that that's because they're remembering when they were literally children.

Brisketexan · February 12

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

The Democratic platform has moved to the left since then, no doubt about it. Of course, while Democrats have moved the the left, Republicans have gone even further right; so far they've fallen off the rails and into fascism entirely. But Gen X didn't come up with fascism as the boogeyman, it was communism and socialism.

Here's what I don't get: our generation was taught -- fucking CORRECTLY -- that Russia was a bad actor. Not just because of communism, but because of totalitarian authoritarian bullshit. My generation grew up thinking that any country where you'd hear the term "papers, please" was a shithole, and not a freedom loving democracy shining city on a hill like the US is.

Now? We fucking LOVE Russia and its dictatorial leader. We fucking LOVE authoritarianism. We fucking LONG for more "papers please" laws and encounters right here in the US. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK?

Horn Under a Bad Sign · February 12

On 2/10/2024 at 5:30 PM, HenryJames said:

You should lose the right to vote when you reach a certain age. No more votes from people who have already lived their lives and only want to prevent younger people from living theirs.

I would support a lessening of the impact of your vote. For every five years after 65, you lose 15 percent. So, when you reach 85 your vote is worth only 40% as much as that of a 20-year-old.

BehoId, The Underminer! · February 12

"Senator Thurmond, with your vote no, the measure passes unanimously."

956 Worldwide · February 12

17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Here's what I don't get: our generation was taught -- fucking CORRECTLY -- that Russia was a bad actor. Not just because of communism, but because of totalitarian authoritarian bullshit. My generation grew up thinking that any country where you'd hear the term "papers, please" was a shithole, and not a freedom loving democracy shining city on a hill like the US is.

Now? We fucking LOVE Russia and its dictatorial leader. We fucking LOVE authoritarianism. We fucking LONG for more "papers please" laws and encounters right here in the US. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK?

Another hot take I have is that patriotism is good and that it’s OK to have a bias, balanced with critical thinking, of supporting the United States.

Yes, there is a lot of nuance and we can fuck that up. But for general purposes, people should be skeptical of taking the side of an adversary.

Brisketexan · February 12

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Another hot take I have is that patriotism is good and that it’s OK to have a bias, balanced with critical thinking, of supporting the United States.

Yes, there is a lot of nuance and we can fuck that up. But for general purposes, people should be skeptical of taking the side of an adversary.

This. A lot of this. Blind "patriotism" is folly....as is blind devotion to "if the US does it, it's bad."

Fudge Nuggets · February 13

10 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Now? We fucking LOVE Russia and its dictatorial leader. We fucking LOVE authoritarianism. We fucking LONG for more "papers please" laws and encounters right here in the US. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK?

No 'we' don't. The stupids do, but not me and most people in this thread.

Gatorubet · February 13

On 2/10/2024 at 6:51 PM, David Dennison said:

Hoo boy, Gen Z would cry real tears if they were exposed the jokes our fathers told when we were children.

It wasn’t until I moved from Iowa to Florida in third grade that I learned there was an alternate name for Brazil nuts.

Bozo_Casanova · February 13

Color me extremely skeptical of the whole takeaway that Gen X is disproportionately conservative, let alone Trumpy.
Not going to walk through it here because I haven’t actually done the homework yet but I’m beginning to develop a hypothesis that the alleged Republican lean of Gen X in polling is a sort of optical illusion due to the small size of the generation relative to the cohorts on either side and the distribution of the cohort across both locations and birth years. When I look at the cross tabs in these polls, it begins to appear that they oversampled for white, rural, southern non college graduates who skew towards the pre-1973 years, even when they don’t do that and subsequently normalize and weight the responses. In other words, it’s not that the pollsters are bad, it’s that the data are really noisy.
I also see no evidence that GenX is particularly pro-Trump, in the same way that it’s consistently never been pro-anything.

Edited February 13 by Bozo_Casanova

Brisketexan · February 13

Color me extremely skeptical of the whole takeaway that Gen X is disproportionately conservative, let alone Trumpy.
Not going to walk through it here because I haven’t actually done the homework yet but I’m beginning to develop a hypothesis that the alleged Republican lean of Gen X in polling is a sort of optical illusion due to the small size of the generation relative to the cohorts on either side and the distribution of the cohort across both locations and birth years. When I look at the cross tabs in these polls, it begins to appear that they oversampled for white, rural, southern non college graduates who skew towards the pre-1973 years, even when they don’t do that and subsequently normalize and weight the responses. In other words, it’s not that the pollsters are bad, it’s that the data are really noisy.
I also see no evidence that GenX is particularly pro-Trump, in the same way that it’s consistently never been pro-anything.

Whatever.

YGIFS · February 13

Your generation always says that, dammit!!!

Yeah, like Bozo said...I don't have the data. But we are the first generation to have a plurality of either college grads or 'some college.' We were either babies, or came of age, in an America where it was always post-Jim Crow, post-Roe/Wade, post-Women's Liberation Movement, post-draft, post-founding of NATO, post a buncha shit. We great up knowing and embracing an incredibly flawed nation. But one that had been probably the best version for everyone. Not great, but better. And now we've got our own kids coming of age and we're in positions of authority and influence and political sway. We're the ones supposed to be tilting this shit for the better. Not Boomers or Z or Millennials, it's us. Yeah, I think we're the smallest generation in numbers but our turnout rates and influence and status certainly out-kick all that coverage.

Every generation thinks they're special and unique. But I have lived from Cronkite and printed newspapers to MSNBC and Fox. I watched the Berlin Wall come down and a U.S. President calling for Russia to invade NATO allies. I went from knowing friends who had abortions because of rape to using trucks to illegally transport women to New Mexico to receive proper health care. I grew up watching Presidents who absolutely loved this country and served in the protection of it to watching a court and nominee front-runner try to kneecap it. I listened to my veteran grandfather talk about battling the evils of Fascism in WWII to watching all three of our branches cheer on the ushering in the same thing here. I saw gays being taunted to attending a legal gay wedding to watching them be marginalized all over again. We are not special but we have lived to see everything turned on its head. And we're in a station in life where we can do something about it. Our generation is Cartaphilus. Condemned to watch everything we knew build and destroyed, over and over and over again. With no ability to stop it

I feel like there's an encore to "Sympathy for the Devil' in here somewhere. I shouted out, who killed the Kennedy's? When after all, it was you and me. Pleased to meet you...

Bozo_Casanova · February 13

Looks like Philip Bump was ahead of me on this on and did the homework, complete with charts and graphs: No, Gen X is not the Trumpiest Generation

He even speaks to what I said about optical illusions:

Quote

In the latter case, part of the explanation for Gen X’s Trump support is the number of members of each generation surveyed. The margin of error for baby boomers — which depends in large part on the sample size — is 5.8 percent. For Gen X, it’s 8.2 percent. It’s unlikely, but those margins mean that 48 percent of boomers and Gen X could support either Trump or Biden.

…

As I was researching my book, I spoke with a number of political observers and demographers about the interplay of generations. One observed that the relatively small size of Gen X relative to the baby boom meant that it was often simply moving along in the shadow of the boom, drafting on it.

More at the link. Well done analysis.

I’ll add one thought of my own- in the current round of polling, the most commonly cited “evidence” is Gen X disapproval of Biden, in a vacuum, without context. It seems like a massive stretch to infer under the circumstances that generic disapproval of Biden will translate to actual votes for Trump. Maybe it will, but when since 1994 has Gen X approved of anything?

Edited February 13 by Bozo_Casanova

HenryJames · February 13

Elections over polling.

jimmyjazz · February 13

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’ll add one thought of my own- in the current round of polling, the most commonly cited “evidence” is Gen X disapproval of Biden, in a vacuum, without context. It seems like a massive stretch to infer under the circumstances that generic disapproval of Biden will translate to actual votes for Trump. Maybe it will, but when since 1994 has Gen X approved of anything?

I'm not sure if this fits the narrative, but in speaking with my daughter, it's clear that her and many of her friends are disappointed in Biden. They are far from supporting Trump, though. They'd probably be more of the Warren/Sanders ilk if those options were available.

bolverk · February 13

51 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Looks like Philip Bump was ahead of me on this on and did the homework, complete with charts and graphs: No, Gen X is not the Trumpiest Generation

He even speaks to what I said about optical illusions:

More at the link. Well done analysis.

I’ll add one thought of my own- in the current round of polling, the most commonly cited “evidence” is Gen X disapproval of Biden, in a vacuum, without context. It seems like a massive stretch to infer under the circumstances that generic disapproval of Biden will translate to actual votes for Trump. Maybe it will, but when since 1994 has Gen X approved of anything?

This is pretty old, but because it actually shows a trend line instead of two static points in time, it's one of the better portrayals and explainers of voting patterns among generations I've seen. It also makes intuitive sense. The theory is that the politics of the era in which you came of age is what has the most lasting effect on your long-term ideology.

Slide the bar to the year of your birth. Then look at the 18-22 year portion of the line. Look down at the year and who was president and think about what was happening in the world then. Notice that shortly after that window, the line settles into a fairly stable pattern in most cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/08/upshot/how-the-year-you-were-born-influences-your-politics.html?smid=pl-share

Here are the results for those born in the same year as me, 1971. In 2012, I was 41, and according to this data, there would've been a 55% chance I would vote GOP. To be honest, looking at the white peers I grew up with, I could buy that.

Two caveats: I grew up in a small West Texas town so that skews things well to the right. But I haven't associated with the vast majority of those people since, and almost everyone I have in my adulthood ranges from super liberal to just left of center. Still, if I keep in mind the views of FB posters from my entire lifespan, it seems about right (at least for 2012).

I would really like to see this type of longitudinal analysis regenerated to include the "Trump effect" on wypipo.

Since "share a free article" wasn't an option (probably because it's so damn old), below in the spoiler are the results at 10-year increments for the data they had.

Spoiler

hayden_horn · February 14

9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not sure if this fits the narrative, but in speaking with my daughter, it's clear that her and many of her friends are disappointed in Biden. They are far from supporting Trump, though. They'd probably be more of the Warren/Sanders ilk if those options were available.

then thank god they aren't

Horn Dog · February 14

10 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not sure if this fits the narrative, but in speaking with my daughter, it's clear that her and many of her friends are disappointed in Biden. They are far from supporting Trump, though. They'd probably be more of the Warren/Sanders ilk if those options were available.

You need to sit your daughter and her friends down and explain to them that a good president isn’t like going to a Taylor Swift concert where you get all excited and amped up and ready to scream your head off for 4yrs. Its more like getting a good airplane pilot. They announce their presence at the beginning of the flight, let you know the intended designation and what its going to take to get there. Then you sit back and relax. If there is a storm in between they steer around it. If there is a instrument error or some unexpected event, they use their training and experience to deal with it, without you even realizing there was an issue. Your trip is not chaotic and “exciting”. It is relatively boring, predictable, and in the end you arrive safely at your destination ready to implement your personal plans. That is basically what Biden has done. The need for excitement and entertainment from our politicians is gonna kill us all.

Edited February 14 by Horn Dog

jimmyjazz · February 14

Thanks for the parenting lesson. My daughter is a 21 YO junior at UT and she thinks for herself. She is idealistic and naive like most kids her age. At least she is concerned. She says she'll vote for Biden but she doesn't like it. My concern is that a lot of kids stay away from the polls, because they don't understand the practical concerns.

elfenix · February 14

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Thanks for the parenting lesson. My daughter is a 21 YO junior at UT and she thinks for herself. She is idealistic and naive like most kids her age. At least she is concerned. She says she'll vote for Biden but she doesn't like it. My concern is that a lot of kids stay away from the polls, because they don't understand the practical concerns.

📸?

Biff Tannen · February 14

11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not sure if this fits the narrative, but in speaking with my daughter, it's clear that her and many of her friends are disappointed in Biden. They are far from supporting Trump, though. They'd probably be more of the Warren/Sanders ilk if those options were available.

That’s fine and quite understandable. Do you think they make the connection that if they don’t vote for him in 2024, they very well may not get the chance to vote for someone of the Warren/Sanders ilk in 2028?

Edited February 14 by Biff Tannen
Well you addressed this down thread

HenryJames · February 14

17 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Elections over polling.

texasdago · February 14

22 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Elections over polling.

Aqua Buddha · February 14

Gen X is now old enough know that medical problems can be completely random and we'd rather them not ruin our lives financially even if we survive.

So yeah, Team Obamacare here.

GenXer · February 14

I turned type 1 diabetic at 17. Healthcare and its costs have always been a top issue for me. Republicans showed they didn’t give a shit about healthcare in the 90’s.

Until obamacare I couldn’t buy health insurance on the open market because no health insurance company would sell to the high risk customers.

Brisketexan · February 14

7 minutes ago, GenXer said:

I turned type 1 diabetic at 17. Healthcare and its costs have always been a top issue for me. Republicans showed they didn’t give a shit about healthcare in the 90’s.

Until obamacare I couldn’t buy health insurance on the open market because no health insurance company would sell to the high risk customers.

Have you looked into pulling your malfunctioning pancreas up by the bootstraps? Lazy bastard.

SimonBolivar · February 14

13 minutes ago, GenXer said:

I turned type 1 diabetic at 17.

That's a thing? One more thing to worry about now

GenXer · February 14

3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That's a thing? One more thing to worry about now

Used to be called juvenile diabetes. It can hit kids at a very young age. I felt my first low blood sugar episode in the eighth grade and had no idea what was going on. Pancreas shut down some time during spring of my senior year in high school.

Telltale symptoms are unquenchable thirst and constant urination.

Aqua Buddha · February 14

1 hour ago, GenXer said:

I turned type 1 diabetic at 17. Healthcare and its costs have always been a top issue for me. Republicans showed they didn’t give a shit about healthcare in the 90’s.

Until obamacare I couldn’t buy health insurance on the open market because no health insurance company would sell to the high risk customers.

User name is very relevant here. Well done.

Just stop being poor and stop being sick. Problem solved.

Pato del Muerto · February 14

It’s 2024 and gen x still cant get a fair shot at potus even though we are the correct age range. Obama was close, then half the country freaked out and we went backwards.

that total number disparity between boomers and x is probably still at play there, even with the mortality of boomers.

Edited February 14 by Pato del Muerto

safe sex · February 14

You can also become a type 1 diabetic in adulthood. It's pretty rare in my experience, but can def happen out of nowhere

Js1 · February 14

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s 2024 and gen x still cant get a fair shot at potus even though we are the correct age range. Obama was close, then half the country freaked out and we went backwards.

2028 has a lot of potential Gen X Dems or borderline Gen X (on both ends):

Whitmer (1971)
Shapiro (1973)
Wes Moore (1978)
Harris (1964) - just on the edge being too old for Gen X
Buttigieg (1982) - just on the edge of being too young for Gen X
Newsom (1967)
Pritzker (1965) - just on the edge of being too old for Gen X
Booker (1969)
Warnock (1969)

RPM · February 19

John Oliver just offered Clarence Thomas $1 Million a year and a $2 Million motor coach if he retires in the next 30 days.

Edited February 19 by RPM

Hugo Stiglitz · February 19

The billionaires will double his offer to stay.

Biff Tannen · February 19

On 2/14/2024 at 11:03 AM, Js1 said:

Buttigieg (1982) - just on the edge of being too young for Gen X

Dude, I admire the chutzpah, but us 1982ers are in no way Gen X. Trust me, I would love to be able to claim Nirvana and Alice In Chains as my generation, but I was just basking in their glow at age 11.

BehoId, The Underminer! · February 19

it was super into DMB at the time and i look back and totally cringe. i'd take britney over that any day now.

YGIFS · February 19

No shame in it. I tune into his sat. radio channel in the truck every now and again and just shake my head. They are brilliant musicians, but good lord that music has aged about as well as malaria. Then I remembered the two girls I dated (one in undergrad, one in law school) absolutely loved him in the mid-to-late 90s. And then I forgive myself because the sex after his live shows was peak. I guess young folks still do that these days, I just don't know the bands. But I honestly wonder if people left like a symphony in the 1700s and the dude was just there to court his object of affection and they went home and took off their 9 layers of clothing and got it on.

Back to the SCOTUS...here's a boner killer for y'all. Ginni Thomas says/posts the weirdest shit I think any justice's spouse has ever done. And then she goes home and rimjobs Clarence Thomas. What kind of life is that? Yeah, I paid good money for DMB tickets to get laid. But it was an honest venture.

Fudge Nuggets · February 19

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it was super into DMB at the time and i look back and totally cringe. i'd take britney over that any day now.

I've never listened to a DMB song to the finish. I've developed some serious cat-like reflexes in changing stations whenever one does come on the radio.

Red Five · February 19

9 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

At least you have Linkin Park, Avril Lavigne and Nickelback.

Seriously, though, when I think back to the very late 90s and early 2000s, I think the boybands and Britney Spears might have actually been the good music from that time.

I listen to the 80s station on XM all the time. The 90s station is basically unlistenable IMO.

Surly Bevo · February 19

Just now, Red Five said:

I listen to the 80s station on XM all the time. The 90s station is basically unlistenable IMO.

Gotta go with Lithium on Sirius/XM for 90s music....

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