Trump's Trade War

[Royalfan5 2348]

So the partial release of the Farmer trade aid just added to the clusterfuck of a spring. With the wet weather planting is historically slow with more rain coming as we get past late planting dates for insurance. Under the old rules , a farmer would likely take his prevent plant insurance on some acres, which would help rebalance the supply/demand situation on it's own. The aid package excludes guys from getting paid on prevent plant acres, encouraging them to plant in bad conditions, and likely get a poor crop and damage the field to collect aid, instead of just taking the rain check. They also released no details on the payment structure other than it will based on a formula that is based on county averages, so everyone is flying blind as they figure out what they can and can't finish this year. The best I can say for the cluster fuck is they didn't tie things to soybean production this year.  

[crash_davis 23084]

when free government money is gifted to the poor, it's called welfare and frowned upon.  when it's gifted to farmers, it's called aid and happily chased.

hypocrisy and the republican party, never the two shall meet.

Edited May 23, 2019 by crash_davis

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

So the partial release of the Farmer trade aid just added to the clusterfuck of a spring. With the wet weather planting is historically slow with more rain coming as we get past late planting dates for insurance. Under the old rules , a farmer would likely take his prevent plant insurance on some acres, which would help rebalance the supply/demand situation on it's own. The aid package excludes guys from getting paid on prevent plant acres, encouraging them to plant in bad conditions, and likely get a poor crop and damage the field to collect aid, instead of just taking the rain check. They also released no details on the payment structure other than it will based on a formula that is based on county averages, so everyone is flying blind as they figure out what they can and can't finish this year. The best I can say for the cluster fuck is they didn't tie things to soybean production this year.  

this sounds all well informed and therefore elitist.  pass.  

[tx 3 putt 76372]

6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

when free government money is gifted to the poor, it's called welfare and frowned upon.  when it's gifted to patriot farmers, it's called aid and happily chased.

hypocrisy and the republican party, never the two shall meet.

 

you left out a word 

[kevwun 15647]

I don't think China is ready to fold yet, so they are going to do something really painful in retaliation for the hurt this is gonna put on Huawei.

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

 

[babysdaddy 2718]

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I don't think China is ready to fold yet, so they are going to do something really painful in retaliation for the hurt this is gonna put on Huawei.

yep.  Boeing/Apple/Microsoft/Google need to watch their ass

[Post Oak 20184]

46 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

 

I wonder how many of these farmers had problems with his racist rhetoric or authorizing children to be snatched from their mothers at the border or how he wants to do away with obamacare or any one of hundred of other despicable stunts he's shown?

 

My guess is not too many.  Welcome to wellfare fuckers.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

I wonder how many of these farmers had problems with his racist rhetoric or authorizing children to be snatched from their mothers at the border or how he wants to do away with obamacare or any one of hundred of other despicable stunts he's shown?

 

My guess is not too many.  Welcome to wellfare fuckers.  

they all agreed to wear cowboy hats indoors. they are fine with being a part of political theater.

[Bama Chick 28596]

The cowboy on our right looks like he’s ready to go full Brokeback for Ole Donny.

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

 

“Markets fall sharply because of his trade war” 🙄🙄🙄

There’s plenty of reasons to be against the Trade War. The effect on Us markets isn’t one of them. We’re less than a month from all time highs and Chinese markets have been rekt over the last year plus. It’s obvious who the market thinks it’s gonna hurt more from all this. 

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

The cowboy on our right looks like he’s ready to go full Brokeback for Ole Donny.

Maybe he is.  So what?

[GRHorn 105]

On 5/22/2019 at 4:12 PM, F250 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they started restricting direct market access to U.S. companies as retaliation. But even that will have a limited impact because they already engage in such protective practices compared to the U.S. Having liberal trade practices gives nations plenty of room to maneuver, our big trade deficit is our weapon. China's protectionist policies has them at a disadvantage.

There is irony at play here.

 

True. The fact is, as much as they’ve grown, they need us (and the rest of the World) more than the other way around. 

[Foosters 17732]

12 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

“Markets fall sharply because of his trade war” 🙄🙄🙄

There’s plenty of reasons to be against the Trade War. The effect on Us markets isn’t one of them. We’re less than a month from all time highs and Chinese markets have been rekt over the last year plus. It’s obvious who the market thinks it’s gonna hurt more from all this. 

Just so we're clear, is it your position that the trade wars do not have a negative effect on domestic markets?

[GRHorn 105]

42 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Just so we're clear, is it your position that the trade wars do not have a negative effect on domestic markets?

Have they yet?

[4th&Five 41461]

 

[tx 3 putt 76372]

that's a $831 tax

where do tariffs collected go ?

[tucker 238]

 

[happyfunball 481]

 

https://futurism.com/google-future-china-internet


The World of the Future Will Have Two Separate Internets, Former Google CEO Predicts
One for China, one for everyone else

[F250 28682]

2 hours ago, tucker said:

 

About 10 years ago I bypassed the Great Firewall of China by setting up an encrypted tunnel between an office in Shenzhenin and Singapore. Normal traffic was routing through Tokyo but the web proxy was sending internet traffic out to Singapore.

I eventually received a letter from the Chinese Ministry responsible for censorship with a big ass list of forbidden websites and an explanation that the current network setup was violating Chinese law. I ignored the letter. Got another one and then ran it by our legal team who said to make the changes. I went into techno babble mode and said it will take a lot of time to do.

Eventually I received a third letter and did the jerk off motion. Finally I receive a call from our Regional director for APAC who was visiting from Australia. Dude was freaking out. Talking about the Chinese authorities not letting him go home and threatening jail until I shut down the internet access. Poor guy was shitting bricks so I obliged.

I would go on to receive other letters regarding encryption and other shit over the years.

Dealing with China is a fucking beating. I hated those assholes.

It's like having dinner at someone's house who abuses his wife and kids and then trys to steal all your shit but gets insulted if you notice any of it.

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45494]

How have none of the candidates or Ds in Congress called him on his complete lack of knowledge about how tariffs work?  He keeps doubling down on it, over and over and over.  Doesn't anyone else see this?  

[retread 2951]

It's astonishing to watch. Cheeto making decisions that could adversely affect the American and global economies. No one bats an eye at his idiocy. smh.

[F250 28682]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

How have none of the candidates or Ds in Congress called him on his complete lack of knowledge about how tariffs work?  He keeps doubling down on it, over and over and over.  Doesn't anyone else see this?  

I would guess that the majority of the voting public lacks a basic understanding of international trade so a call out probably wouldn't resonate at all.

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45494]

Just now, F250 said:

I would guess that the majority of the voting public lacks a basic understanding of international trade so a call out probably wouldn't resonate at all.

 

 

Right, but if you call it out and explain how it really works, even the dumbest people could be somewhat informed.  It's not that complicated.  But they just let him continue to push the lie.

[F250 28682]

7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Right, but if you call it out and explain how it really works, even the dumbest people could be somewhat informed.  It's not that complicated.  But they just let him continue to push the lie.

It's easy enough to explain that a tarrif is a tax on Americans but once you go down the road of comparative advantage, Guns and Butter, trade surplus vs deficits, capital inflow and balance of payments, people start to tune out. I think that being pro-trade is counterintuitive to our basic tribal instincts and protectionism just makes sense if you are unaware of how international trade works. It's easy to accept the simple mindedness of protectionism.

It also just seems like a lot to fit into a soundbite, which is why I assume no one bothers to discuss it on TV.

 

 

[Terry Silver 219]

19 hours ago, Post Oak said:

I wonder how many of these farmers had problems with his racist rhetoric or authorizing children to be snatched from their mothers at the border or how he wants to do away with obamacare or any one of hundred of other despicable stunts he's shown?

 

My guess is not too many.  Welcome to wellfare fuckers.  

What racist rhetoric are you referring to?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

3 minutes ago, Terry Silver said:

What racist rhetoric are you referring to?

This is a good question from someone just asking good questions.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

This is a good question from someone just asking good questions.

Well, you know, if you have literally been under a rock or sleeping since 2015, it's very reasonable.

[Terry Silver 219]

Two replies and no answers to my question.  It must be a difficult question to answer.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Just now, Terry Silver said:

Two replies and no answers to my question.  It must be a difficult question to answer.

That’s what makes it such a good question. 

[Francisco 2.0 32333]

34 minutes ago, F250 said:

I would guess that the majority of the voting public lacks a basic understanding of international trade so a call out probably wouldn't resonate at all.

 

 

All it would take is for Wal-Mart to add a disclaimer on the receipt that costs have increased 10% or whatever due to government tariffs.  That would get the attention of the #MAGA class.

Sadly, that's the only way to get their attention.

 

[Terry Silver 219]

Keep thinking, sonny.  Maybe one day you will be able to answer that question.  And when that day comes, I hope you will share your answer with us here on surly.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

Maybe he's right.  Maybe the dotard has never said anything racist.  Maybe I'll rethink my life.  Thanks.  All it took was one question.

[Francisco 2.0 32333]

5 minutes ago, Terry Silver said:

Two replies and no answers to my question.  It must be a difficult question to answer.

[retread 2951]

Just. Asking. Questions.

Edited May 24, 2019 by retread

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

The answer to that question is “intentionally”

[tucker 238]

Wonder how true these stories coming out are

[Dbeasy 14968]

 

What is this tweet trying to say?

[Mojo Hand 4580]

1 minute ago, tucker said:

Wonder how true these stories coming out are

The argument is not that China is winning the trade war.   It is that nobody wins in a trade war, and that although China will suffer more in absolute terms, we will suffer the greater impact relative to the standard of living to which we have grown accustomed.   I don't care about "beating China"; what matters is whether our lives improve or decline. 

[tucker 238]

9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

What is this tweet trying to say?

China already blocks a lot of companies from operating in China. The US is only blocking 1 company 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

1 hour ago, Terry Silver said:

Two replies and no answers to my question.  It must be a difficult question to answer.

Oh, sheeeeit.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

30 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

The argument is not that China is winning the trade war.   It is that nobody wins in a trade war, and that although China will suffer more in absolute terms, we will suffer the greater impact relative to the standard of living to which we have grown accustomed.   I don't care about "beating China"; what matters is whether our lives improve or decline. 

also, "winning a trade war" basically means making the other guy blink.  and authoritarian states that don't have to answer to their population are 

 

[Asithappens 974]

So, the American Farmer (who used to be worth a shit), mostly voted for Trump knowing (or should have known) what Trump's views were on tariffs, are now getting a massive Gubmint welfare check.

This is what the American Farmer voted for. 

Fuck the American Farmer.

They suck at the gubmint teat harder than any other group.

[Royalfan5 2348]

On 5/23/2019 at 12:19 PM, Royalfan5 said:

So the partial release of the Farmer trade aid just added to the clusterfuck of a spring. With the wet weather planting is historically slow with more rain coming as we get past late planting dates for insurance. Under the old rules , a farmer would likely take his prevent plant insurance on some acres, which would help rebalance the supply/demand situation on it's own. The aid package excludes guys from getting paid on prevent plant acres, encouraging them to plant in bad conditions, and likely get a poor crop and damage the field to collect aid, instead of just taking the rain check. They also released no details on the payment structure other than it will based on a formula that is based on county averages, so everyone is flying blind as they figure out what they can and can't finish this year. The best I can say for the cluster fuck is they didn't tie things to soybean production this year.  

As a little bit of an update to this. It's rumored the USDA is going to bump up the prevent plant insurance levels from 55% to 75% to limit planting to game the program by buying off the farmers there too. They could probably just bump the prevent plant part and accomplish more of what they want to do cheaper than the program as configured now. 

[WhatTheBuck 28711]

3 hours ago, Terry Silver said:

What racist rhetoric are you referring to?

All of it. 

[atomheartbevo 89429]

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

How have none of the candidates or Ds in Congress called him on his complete lack of knowledge about how tariffs work?  He keeps doubling down on it, over and over and over.  Doesn't anyone else see this?  

Hasn't trickled down to Walmart yet.  When it fully kicks in, I won't be surprised to see the Dems go in dry on Trump.  Hard to do when it's fairly abstract for American consumers (the farmers and manufacturers are feeling it, but just wait until the public at large does).

[bernorange 8348]

So Chinese media made some waves a couple of weeks ago (May 13 - see page 29 of this thread) with a warning that China was considering dumping their holdings of US Treasuries.  The Chinese press are still sabre rattling over the dumping of US Treasuries:

Quote

As American pundits and polls dismiss the idea that China would dump its massive holdings of US Treasury debt as retaliation against US tariffs, a contrarian view is emerging in Beijing that the government may use the securities as a “weapon of last resort."
...
... with Beijing vowing to fight "to the end" and the U.S. preparing to place a 25-percent tariff on a further $300 billion of Chinese imports, China may have "no choice but to sell" its U.S. Treasury holdings, according to some analysts and reports widely distributed on China's social media.

This would devalue U.S. bonds, causing yields to rise, potentially sharply. If China converted the dollar proceeds from its sale back into yuan, it would strengthen the Chinese currency against the U.S. dollar, potentially significantly.

However, one line of thinking is that because the trade war could remove the U.S. as a viable market for Chinese exports, a strengthening yuan against the dollar -- which would make Chinese goods more expensive for American buyers -- may be seen as an acceptable outcome by Chinese policymakers.

"This will happen only when China has no other option. It is a weapon of last resort," said David Chin, the founder of Basis Point Consulting. "If China is not exporting to the U.S. any more, then they do not need to have a weak yuan and strong dollar to encourage Americans to buy." ...

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011551/could-china-dump-its-us-treasuries-fight-trade-war-contrarian

[tx 3 putt 76372]

Do it !!!!!!

[Horn Dog 9672]

Hey China-  I will buy your 1.2 trillion in US debt for $1000.  PM me if interested.

[F250 28682]

3 hours ago, bernorange said:

So Chinese media made some waves a couple of weeks ago (May 13 - see page 29 of this thread) with a warning that China was considering dumping their holdings of US Treasuries.  The Chinese press are still sabre rattling over the dumping of US Treasuries:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011551/could-china-dump-its-us-treasuries-fight-trade-war-contrarian

It's just empty sabre rattling. China isn't in a position to dump a significant amount of U.S. treasuries.