Trump's Trade War

[Js1 85056]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The voters are damn sure not going to pretend they didn’t happen. 

And take jobs away from Trump supporters and they won’t be able to pay their bills with “but Obama” bucks. 

Trump supporters having to go on government assistance (NOT "welfare" bc welfare is only for minorities) is just the fault of Obama and Hillary's shadow presidency.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Your conclusion presumes rationality.

You presumption is incorrect.

Because "suck it, libs!"

Eventually the frog in the boiling pot of water realizes he’s in a boiling pot of water.  

And plenty of Trump voters were there because of Hillary.  They aren’t going to be too enthused to voted this November.  Assuming they could afford the gas money. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

Never underestimate a CEO to take advantage of public policy to take an unpopular action.   Instead of stating they are moving production to Thailand because they don't want to pay high cost American workers, throw the blame at a tariff.      "The CEO's hands are tied.  He wants to keep Americans working but he can't in this environment.  They will re-evaluate the tariff situation in the future to see if the jobs can come back."   I made up these quotes but it's what they always say.

Now the risk for them is that Trump is in the WH.  If he decides to publicly attack Harley Davidson for this "unpatriotic" act, they could experience pushback from their customers.    Previous Presidents would rarely attack a company for their actions.

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

Who knew trade could be so complicated?

[retread 2951]

Are we still winning?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Trump supporters having to go on government assistance (NOT "welfare" bc welfare is only for minorities) is just the fault of Obama and Hillary's shadow presidency.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Trump put together an aide package to help the hard-working Americans who have sacrificed their employment so that we can win a trade war against China and the rest of the world.  Perhaps replace 100% of their salary until their jobs return.   

[Js1 85056]

Carrier laughs at the notion they won't just say they're moving offshore, get some special exemptions, wait for the shit to blow over and then do it anyways.

[Js1 85056]

Just now, retread said:

Are we still winning?

TrAdE wArS aRe FuN aNd EaSy tO wIn

[woohorn 1131]

Nobody knew [trade] could be so complicated.

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Never underestimate a CEO to take advantage of public policy to take an unpopular action.   Instead of stating they are moving production to Thailand because they don't want to pay high cost American workers, throw the blame at a tariff.      "The CEO's hands are tied.  He wants to keep Americans working but he can't in this environment.  They will re-evaluate the tariff situation in the future to see if the jobs can come back."   I made up these quotes but it's what they always say.

Now the risk for them is that Trump is in the WH.  If he decides to publicly attack Harley Davidson for this "unpatriotic" act, they could experience pushback from their customers.    Previous Presidents would rarely attack a company for their actions.

 

 

Previous presidents understood macroeconomic.

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

In my amateur opinion, the trade war has not been priced into the market yet and you may be seeing the start of that today.  

In my expert opinion, I will tell you there is significant inflation coming down the pike in all categories over the next 12 months and the tariffs are only part of that.  Stagflation may be a real concern.

[The Royal We 3059]

Of all of Trump's BS, this self inflicted nonsense is the hardest policy decision for me to understand.  I don't see how Trumpkins square this one in their heads.  Especially the lower income folks who are going to get mangled by the increasing costs of so many products and low skilled jobs lost.  Does Trump even know what the ideal outcome is here?  What is the absolute best thing that can result from all of the pain?

[Texas73 420]

7 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Of all of Trump's BS, this self inflicted nonsense is the hardest policy decision for me to understand.  I don't see how Trumpkins square this one in their heads.  Especially the lower income folks who are going to get mangled by the increasing costs of so many products and low skilled jobs lost.  Does Trump even know what the ideal outcome is here?  What is the absolute best thing that can result from all of the pain?

fuck the libtards

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

8 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Of all of Trump's BS, this self inflicted nonsense is the hardest policy decision for me to understand.  I don't see how Trumpkins square this one in their heads.  Especially the lower income folks who are going to get mangled by the increasing costs of so many products and low skilled jobs lost.  Does Trump even know what the ideal outcome is here?  What is the absolute best thing that can result from all of the pain?

The Trump supporters don't care and probably don't realize the consequences.

They like the fact that Trump is sticking it to the globalists. 

[Chuckie Finster 22583]

12 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Of all of Trump's BS, this self inflicted nonsense is the hardest policy decision for me to understand.  I don't see how Trumpkins square this one in their heads.  Especially the lower income folks who are going to get mangled by the increasing costs of so many products and low skilled jobs lost.  Does Trump even know what the ideal outcome is here?  What is the absolute best thing that can result from all of the pain?

In late September/early October, as the effects of these tariffs are becoming clear and the midterms are nearing, Trump will say that the tariffs were the Democrats idea and the only way to fix them is to elect more Republicans to Congress.

And tens of millions of people in this country will believe him.

Facts no longer matter to a large portion of the population.  It's the fucking scariest thing I've witnessed in my years on this earth.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

To keep from starving, they'll be able to drink libtard betacuck tears.  That'll make it all better.  At least Hillary Clinton will never be president.....

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

In late September/early October, as the effects of these tariffs are becoming clear and the midterms are nearing, Trump will say that the tariffs were the Democrats idea and the only way to fix them is to elect more Republicans to Congress.

And tens of millions of people in this country will believe him.

He'll say "There's nothing I can do about that.  Congress needs to send me a bill to fix it.  Until then, my hands are tied."  

[The Royal We 3059]

Going broke and on the govt teat to own the libs, that about sums it up?

This shit is bad for everyone.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

In late September/early October, as the effects of these tariffs are becoming clear and the midterms are nearing, Trump will say that the tariffs were the Democrats idea and the only way to fix them is to elect more Republicans to Congress.

And tens of millions of people in this country will believe him.

Yeah, Trump cultists are justifying these tarriffs as temporary pain that will bring the rest of the world to its knees, after which Trump will lift them because everyone else will give in to his demands.  

Remember the old saying about how you can't fool all of the people all of the time?   People forget the part about how you can fool some of the people all of the time.   Those are the Trump cultists that form his 35% voting floor. 

Edited June 25, 2018 by Mojo Hand

[Tuco 5076]

57 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

In my amateur opinion, the trade war has not been priced into the market yet ...

Absolutely.  Beyond that, the market is driven by emotion.  You see posters on here talk about the stock increase since Trump was elected, rather than from when he took office, and certainly not from when any of his policies were enacted.  For this, they cite "confidence," which is really nothing other than an emotion. The fact is that many Trumpsters are not back-woods dimwits, but rather Wall Street dimwits.  Boomers have wealth, in the form of life savings.  And these people don't just vote with at the ballot box, but with their dollars.  They believe Trump when he says it will be easy to win a trade war, that tax cuts will pay for themselves, and that he will cut through regulations which are holding back our economic machine.  They invest in that vision as enthusiastically as any Enron or Bernie Madoff disciple. But, unlike a FoxNews debate, emotions will eventually get overruled by facts in the market.   

Edited June 25, 2018 by Tuco

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Absolutely.  Beyond that, the market is driven by emotion.  You see posters on here talk about the stock increase since Trump was elected, rather than from when he took office, and certainly not from when any of his policies were enacted.  For this, they cite "confidence," which is really nothing other than an emotion. The fact is that many Trumpsters are not back-woods dimwits, but rather Wall Street dimwits.  Boomers have wealth, in the form of life savings.  And these people don't just vote with at the ballot box, but with their dollars.  They believe Trump when he says it will be easy to win a trade war, that tax cuts will pay for themselves, and that he will cut through regulations which are holding back our economic machine.  They invest in that vision as enthusiastically as any Enron or Bernie Madoff disciple. But, unlike a FoxNews debate, emotions will eventually get overruled by facts in the market.   

Keep in mind at this point in the financial meltdown, we were told that subprimes were just a minor speed bump and the economy would keep on rolling.  I'm seeing the same things now but with the tariffs.

The underlying fundamentals of the economy are significantly better now than they were in 2006/2007 and we're have demographic tailwinds in that the millennials are coming to market for big ticket items at this point in their lives.  (That wasn't the case 10 years ago.)  We'll be fine in the long term but 12 months from now, a trade war could have a bigly negative impact.

Trump took an economy that has been doing well for almost 8 years and threw a bunch of money at it and started a trade war.  In the words of Crash Davis to Nuke LaLouche, "never fuck with a streak."

 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Who knew trade could be so complicated?

1 hour ago, woohorn said:

Nobody knew [trade] could be so complicated.

 

[yoladu 4065]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Eventually the frog in the boiling pot of water realizes he’s in a boiling pot of water.  

I thought the whole point of that story is that the frog never realizes and dies.

It never ends with frog wiseing up and jumping out. 

Edited June 25, 2018 by yoladu

[El Diablo 4232]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 In my expert opinion, I will tell you there is significant inflation coming down the pike in all categories over the next 12 months and the tariffs are only part of that.  Stagflation may be a real concern.

Not disagreeing with you but I've been hearing this for the last 25+ years and it still hasn't happened.

[Chuckie Finster 22583]

26 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Keep in mind at this point in the financial meltdown, we were told that subprimes were just a minor speed bump and the economy would keep on rolling.  I'm seeing the same things now but with the tariffs.

The underlying fundamentals of the economy are significantly better now than they were in 2006/2007 and we're have demographic tailwinds in that the millennials are coming to market for big ticket items at this point in their lives.  (That wasn't the case 10 years ago.)  We'll be fine in the long term but 12 months from now, a trade war could have a bigly negative impact.

 Trump took an economy that has been doing well for almost 8 years and threw a bunch of money at it and started a trade war.  In the words of Crash Davis to Nuke LaLouche, "never fuck with a streak."

  

"fuck with a streak" to own the libs #MAGA

[Chad Fuck 17503]

17 minutes ago, yoladu said:

I thought the whole point of that story is that the frog never realizes and dies.

It never ends with frog wiseing up and jumping out. 

Same with the frog and the scorpion.

Frogs have a lot of problems they never get wise to.

[Dar Adal 6]

Skip all the tariffs - just sent $10 bucks of every Iphone purchase to the rust belt and call it a day .... so much simpler  

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, yoladu said:

I thought the whole point of that story is that the frog never realizes and dies.

It never ends with frog wiseing up and jumping out. 

I thought he did but could do nothing about it.  Been a while since I read any of those.

Better analogy would be scorpion and frog.   Trump’s  followers are still the frogs in just about any of these.

 

[4th&Five 41457]

 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

So Harley is anti-Merica now?

[David Dennison 18606]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So Harley is anti-Merica now?

[Ghost of LL 15348]

Damn--Trump was right.  Trade wars are easy to win.  Just watch Europe do it--target the Speaker's home state and watch the US crumble.

[Brisketexan 104465]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Damn--Trump was right.  Trade wars are easy to win.  Just watch Europe do it--target the Speaker's home state and watch the US crumble.

Stock market, particularly tech stocks, took battle damage today.

With the trade artillery being lobbed back and forth, there are a LOT of stocks and industries that are going to be the equivalent of trying to sell a nice house in Bastogne in December of  '44.  Yeah....I'm gonna wait till the dust clears to see if those granite countertops and lovely, homey touches in the living room are still there before I put in an offer.

[scottsins 1953]

 

 

Umm...does he think he wins the issue because “ultimately HD will not be paying tariffs for selling in Mexico”?

 

No shit, fucking moron. Euros would pay the tariff on bikes sold there from the US, decreasing sales, etc. That’s HD’s problem with these trade actions. Straw man gonna straw man.

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

Stock market, particularly tech stocks, took battle damage today.
With the trade artillery being lobbed back and forth, there are a LOT of stocks and industries that are going to be the equivalent of trying to sell a nice house in Bastogne in December of  '44.  Yeah....I'm gonna wait till the dust clears to see if those granite countertops and lovely, homey touches in the living room are still there before I put in an offer.

This is more like The Great Big Siege of Bologna

[Bookman 4610]

On 6/24/2018 at 5:30 PM, XYZ said:

And yet it’s the USA the one with the half trillion dollar trade deficit year after year. Not Canada, not Europe, and most definitely not fucking China. These countries with a trade surplus against the USA, mainly China and Japan before it, have been using the extra dollars they end up with to buy US treasury bonds, keeping the game going. So see, it will be a shitshow if the USA attempts to balance its trade, but if nothing were done to balance trade, the outcome would inevitably also be a shitshow. I think I saw somewhere that 40% of shipping containers that arrive at US ports with shit from abroad, leave empty. Why is it so hard for people to understand that you can’t do that indefinitely?

Can't do what indefinitely? Buy a bunch of shit? What's wrong with trade deficits?

[Hornius Emeritus 12403]

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

Can't do what indefinitely? Buy a bunch of shit? What's wrong with trade deficits?

 

Nothing. In fact, historically they have been indicators of a healthy U.S. economy.

[Bookman 4610]

When I was at business school at UT in the 90s, I took some international economics classes. Free trade was all the rage back then. I also took NAFTA at UT Law School. So I hope that qualifies me as someone who's interested in the subject.

When Trump started attacking free trade, I truly was interested in discourse about the costs/benefits of free trade and free trade agreements. I'm still waiting on that. The only thing I've ever seen is Trump being pissed at trade deficits for some reason. If he's ever said why then I missed that. I suppose it's blaming those damn foreigners or something like that.

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 hours ago, Bookman said:

Can't do what indefinitely? Buy a bunch of shit? What's wrong with trade deficits?

He and trump have no idea. It just kinda sorta-sounds bad and for trump it’s an excuse to implement his plan and desire to eventually wreck the US economy.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

Can't do what indefinitely? Buy a bunch of shit? What's wrong with trade deficits?

Can't have cheap shit man. You should be posting more because it's murican to overpay for things. Lib tears out front should have told you.

On intellectual property he has a germ of an idea but of course it's lost in all his other idiotic rhetoric.

If he is a reflection of the US I'm going to say we're fucked.

[Francisco 2.0 32290]

57 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Can't have cheap shit man. You should be posting more because it's murican to overpay for things. Lib tears out front should have told you.

On intellectual property he has a germ of an idea but of course it's lost in all his other idiotic rhetoric.

If he is a reflection of the US I'm going to say we're fucked.

You must not get out much.

 

 

[Redneck Mutha 7923]

19 hours ago, The Royal We said:

Of all of Trump's BS, this self inflicted nonsense is the hardest policy decision for me to understand.  I don't see how Trumpkins square this one in their heads.  Especially the lower income folks who are going to get mangled by the increasing costs of so many products and low skilled jobs lost.  Does Trump even know what the ideal outcome is here?  What is the absolute best thing that can result from all of the pain?

1) US increases tariffs

2) Americans will generally pay 5-10% more for their products

3) Exporting countries will not retaliate, but will soon cave to the pressure of these tariffs, (heh)

4) US will drop the tariffs (heh)

5) US companies will pass along the savings of low/no tariffs to their US consumers and decrease the cost of products, rather using those savings to do stock buybacks, $1k bonuses to workers, and increase bonuses to executives (roflmmfao)

The HD example exemplifies what might be the biggest issue with all of this, companies will follow the money.  China could just say fuck you, we're going to partner with CAT, Ford, Conagra, Boeing, etc. to build plants in China or in nearby tariff-friendly nations and bypass all the US tariff bullshit.  It will cost us some money up front, but we'll come out way ahead in the end.  Plus, we'll have more control/leverage of the supply chains and scalability.  Shit, maybe we should have done this years ago, good thing the US forced our hand, it will help us in the long run.  

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

We've had trade deficits since 1980 and since we've heard how they're killing the country yet here we are, almost 40 years later and our economy is the envy of the world.

 

[4th&Five 41457]

He definitely knows what he’s doing.

 

Edited June 26, 2018 by 4th&Five

[Tuco 5076]

"...they will be taxed like never before!"

This is the new normal. 

 

(Edit: and the beginning of the end has been for a while.  They make overpriced mediocre bikes and has thrived mainly on name recognition from boomers.  I said months ago that a trade war could actually put them under. Trump is just trying to get ahead of that so he can take credit for them failing.)

Edited June 26, 2018 by Tuco

[936horn 910]

Can you imagine ANY past President threatening to "tax [a company] like never before!"

Fucking surreal

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Prediction:  Harley says they are no longer planning on moving.   Trump takes credit for ending problem he himself caused. In six months, Harley quietly moves anyway. 

[WhatTheBuck 28700]

None of Ivanka's products should be made in another country either. 

[6th Street 6340]

Pretty easy decision for HOG since they already have mfg ops in Thailand. Post tariffs, the incremental cost for a European Harley buyer would be roughly $2,200 which would obviously be demand destructive. Harley cutting its prices by that amount would slash its gross margins by nearly 33%

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

25 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Prediction:  Harley says they are no longer planning on moving.   Trump takes credit for ending problem he himself caused. In six months, Harley quietly moves anyway. 

This is one path.

im waiting to see Current owners setting their Harley’s on fire in protest of the company.