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Trump's Trade War

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90,642

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, 936horn said:

Can you imagine ANY past President threatening to "tax [a company] like never before!"

Fucking surreal

I didn’t expect to have a President who thought it would be a good idea to separate little kids from their parents and put them in shitty prisons in the desert.  

He is peak aggy.   Really surprised they haven’t offered him an honorary degree.

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Ted Lange
Ted Lange

Now let’s imagine a world where China decides to dump several hundreds of millions of dollars into a campaign to elect a democrat.  And that Democrat openly screams for Beijing’s support.  And uses in

Mojo Hand
Mojo Hand

Looks like Elkhart County went for Trump 64-32 over Hillary in 2016, so fuck 'em.  Enjoy the tariffs you voted for! 

Chooky
Chooky

Apparently China didn't heed the stark example of what happens to those in a battle of financial wit between Donald Trump and Dennis Rodman. Ask Clint Black or Gene Simmons what happens. Go ahead and

Js1

Js1 87,179

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Prediction:  Harley says they are no longer planning on moving.   Trump takes credit for ending problem he himself caused. In six months, Harley quietly moves anyway. 

Said this yesterday. The Carrier special. They'll get handed some special exemption or tax break to get back the $2,200 per motorcycle and in 6 months, move anyways.

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retread

retread 2,951

Posted
Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Said this yesterday. The Carrier special. They'll get handed some special exemption or tax break to get back the $2,200 per motorcycle and in 6 months, move anyways.

What's more fun than conning a con man?

Everyone knows his word means nothing.

Edited by retread
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

Posted
Posted

A more ominous sign, evidence that Trump is sapping American economic and diplomatic strength, comes from the announcement that China and the E.U. will form a working group to revamp “global trade rules to address technology policy, subsidies and other emerging irritants and preserve support for international trade amid U.S. threats of import controls,” The Post reports. For 70 years or so, the United States wrote the rules of the road for international trade, including protection of intellectual property. Now we sit on the sidelines, with the prospect that other powers will construct rules that disfavor the United States. By any definition, this is “losing.”

In his abjectly ignorant effort to remake America according to his 1950s economic vision, Trump is costing Americans jobs, potentially shrinking our economy and making the United States less respected in the world. As with his border disaster, the economic damage will be entirely Trump-inflicted. He cannot blame his protectionist debacle on the media, his predecessor or Congress.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/06/26/only-trump-could-be-surprised-that-trade-wars-hurt-the-united-states/

 

So much winning.

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Cacti

Cacti 191

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

For 70 years or so, the United States wrote the rules of the road for international trade, including protection of intellectual property.

Trump is...making the United States less respected in the world. So much winning.

 

We may have written the rules for protection of intellectual property but China has flagrantly violated those rules, with little or repercussions. They don't respect us, and never have.

 

Quote

A 2016 U.S. Trade Representative’s report highlighted serious problems, especially concerning the theft of trade secrets. "Offenders in many cases continue to operate with impunity," the report said.

 

As far as “Trump…making the United States less respected in the world” (with respect to the E.U.), just wait until Putin inevitably growls at his bordering, western neighbors. I suspect the E.U. will, at that time, once again feign respect for us. And bigly.

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Foosters

Foosters 18,278

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Cacti said:

 

We may have written the rules for protection of intellectual property but China has flagrantly violated those rules, with little or repercussions. They don't respect us, and never have.

 

 

As far as “Trump…making the United States less respected in the world” (with respect to the E.U.), just wait until Putin inevitably growls at his bordering, western neighbors. I suspect the E.U. will, at that time, once again feign respect for us. And bigly.

Hilarious. Trump's campaign:

"I will rebuild America's economic power and reestablish us on the global stage."

"Foreign countries are mocking us and think we're weak. I will fix this.

 

Reality:

"Well, China was cheating so we just decided to quit."

"Well yeah, we're now far less respected than ever, but just wait until Russia starts trying to fuck with Europe. Then they'll like us."   

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Cacti

Cacti 191

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Foosters said:

"Well yeah, we're now far less respected than ever, but just wait until Russia starts trying to fuck with Europe. Then they'll like us."   

No, they still won’t like us but since they are in no position to defend themselves from Russia, they will pretend to like us. Much like the basement-dwelling, college grad who doesn’t like his parents but can’t, or won’t, get out from under their protective umbrella.

In any event, I think you’re overestimating our pre-Trump era respect. The Reputation Institutes Country Reptrak 2015 Survey, which ranks countries by how respected they are, placed the U.S. outside the top twenty. And in The Reputation Institute’s 2016 “World’s Most Reputable Countries” survey, the U.S. finished 28th, in between Poland and Argentina.

Granted, our standing is now lower but don’t pretend we were an admired nation during the previous administration.

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Foosters

Foosters 18,278

Posted
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15 hours ago, Cacti said:

No, they still won’t like us but since they are in no position to defend themselves from Russia, they will pretend to like us. Much like the basement-dwelling, college grad who doesn’t like his parents but can’t, or won’t, get out from under their protective umbrella.

In any event, I think you’re overestimating our pre-Trump era respect. The Reputation Institutes Country Reptrak 2015 Survey, which ranks countries by how respected they are, placed the U.S. outside the top twenty. And in The Reputation Institute’s 2016 “World’s Most Reputable Countries” survey, the U.S. finished 28th, in between Poland and Argentina.

Granted, our standing is now lower but don’t pretend we were an admired nation during the previous administration.

That's a lot of words to say "yeah, you're right."

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,729

Posted
Posted (edited)

I give those Harley employees credit for willing to take it on the chin for the benefit of the US.  The coal and steel workers, that they are indirectly helping, didn't feel that way.  Those workers don't care about the negative consequences for helping keep their jobs.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/26/news/companies/steel-tariffs-job-losses/index.html?iid=SF_LN

Quote

About 21,000 US companies have filed for tariff exclusions. In a June 20 Senate hearing, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Mid-Continent had filed a request for an exclusion only two days earlier.

I don't understand the point of exclusions from paying the tariffs.  Say I run a company that uses foreign steel and because of my well-run business, I can survive paying the tariff and as a patriotic American, I will take the reduced profit.  My fellow American competitor is poorly run, and they may be granted an exclusion to continue to buy foreign steel sans tariff to say afloat.   I guess I need to take the unneeded exclusion to protect my own company.  

Why wouldn't every company fight for this exclusion?

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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MAROON

MAROON 446

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I give those Harley employees credit for willing to take it on the chin for the benefit of the US.  The coal and steel workers, that they are indirectly helping, didn't feel that way.  Those workers don't care about the negative consequences for helping keep their jobs.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/26/news/companies/steel-tariffs-job-losses/index.html?iid=SF_LN

I don't understand the point of exclusions from paying the tariffs.  Say I run a company that uses foreign steel and because of my well-run business, I can survive paying the tariff and as a patriotic American, I will take the reduced profit.  My fellow American competitor is poorly run, and they may be granted an exclusion to continue to buy foreign steel sans tariff to say afloat.   I guess I need to take the unneeded exclusion to protect my own company.  

Why wouldn't every company fight for this exclusion?

how about if the steel required for your product was only made by a foreign mill (no US option for purchase)?  Would you not then fight for exclusion?

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Tuco

Tuco 5,093

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't understand the point of exclusions from paying the tariffs.  Say I run a company that uses foreign steel and because of my well-run business, I can survive paying the tariff and as a patriotic American, I will take the reduced profit.  My fellow American competitor is poorly run, and they may be granted an exclusion to continue to buy foreign steel sans tariff to say afloat.   I guess I need to take the unneeded exclusion to protect my own company.  

Why wouldn't every company fight for this exclusion?

 

 

10 minutes ago, F250 said:

I wonder what kind of kick backs are happening with these exclusions?

 

My guess is the exclusions are based on lack of American equivalents.  I know the tire company was saying that they could not source the required steel wire domestically.  Theoretically, you could tell them to suck it up and after a 6-24 months a domestic source would pop up to fill that need.  But that's a hell of a hit waiting for that new source. 

But the kickback thing is absolutely relevant.  Trade policy is awesome for rent seeking.  You will have some companies paying you (either bribes, or campaign contributions) to institute tariffs to protect their industries, some companies paying you to protect their supply chain, and other companies paying you to avoid anything that would generate retaliation from some of their prime markets.  It's so specific with dramatic consequences for the winners and losers that a bidding war for the politicians' affections are inevitable. You can have two companies doing pretty much the same thing, but one company gets supply from China and the other from Vietnam. The president has the power to elevate one and fuck the other over. There is no standardized bid or grant process.  There is no general regulation which applies to all companies.  It is arbitrary and powerful, and therefore so, so ripe for corruption.   

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F250

F250 29,200

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11 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 

 

My guess is the exclusions are based on lack of American equivalents.  I know the tire company was saying that they could not source the required steel wire domestically.  Theoretically, you could tell them to suck it up and after a 6-24 months a domestic source would pop up to fill that need.  But that's a hell of a hit waiting for that new source. 

But the kickback thing is absolutely relevant.  Trade policy is awesome for rent seeking.  You will have some companies paying you (either bribes, or campaign contributions) to institute tariffs to protect their industries, some companies paying you to protect their supply chain, and other companies paying you to avoid anything that would generate retaliation from some of their prime markets.  It's so specific with dramatic consequences for the winners and losers that a bidding war for the politicians' affections are inevitable. You can have two companies doing pretty much the same thing, but one company gets supply from China and the other from Vietnam. The president has the power to elevate one and fuck the other over. There is no standardized bid or grant process.  There is no general regulation which applies to all companies.  It is arbitrary and powerful, and therefore so, so ripe for corruption.   

You fucking nailed it! So much truth here regarding rent seeking. 

The thing that just boggles my mind is so many supporters of Trump are quick to defend capitalism in certain areas but then go silent when Trump is interfering with the free-market in such an invasive manner.

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,729

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38 minutes ago, MAROON said:

how about if the steel required for your product was only made by a foreign mill (no US option for purchase)?  Would you not then fight for exclusion?

The point of the Trump tariffs are to incentivize the foreign companies to open up their trade for American exporters and/or grow American industries.  If you offer exemptions or exclusions, you're limiting the benefits.  You get the worst of both worlds.

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F250

F250 29,200

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"Trump's willingness to push and pull levers like eminent domain, taxation, trade policy, and the bully pulpit to bend private companies to his will shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's paid attention to his rhetoric and behavior both as a private businessman and a politician.

But that high-profile Republicans and self-professed champions of the free market such as Walker and Ryan tacitly and explicitly endorse cronyist policies on such a grand scale is yet another sign that the GOP is abandoning even the pretense of being the party of free trade and more fully embracing an increasingly incoherent ideology of corporatist populism."

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,729

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Instituting a 10% tariff seems like playing too nice.  Is it a form of "proportional response" or a shot across the bow?  If I was retaliating, I would bring forward a 100% tariff.  Shut it down.    Of course the downside is that you will most likely kill a few domestic companies with a slash and burn strategy.

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F250

F250 29,200

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55 minutes ago, Grandioso said:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Gov-Greg-Abbott-calls-on-Trump-to-reconsider-13035775.php

This really calls into question how committed our governor is to owning the libs.

Fuck Abbott, he should have been denouncing Trump's anti-trade rhetoric a long time ago. Our economy has thrived off the trade agreements Trump has been trashing. As the Governor of Texas he should be one of the most vocal critics of Trump's protectionist policy. Fuck him in his lame ass.

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,729

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16 minutes ago, F250 said:

Fuck Abbott, he should have been denouncing Trump's anti-trade rhetoric a long time ago. Our economy has thrived off the trade agreements Trump has been trashing. As the Governor of Texas he should be one of the most vocal critics of Trump's protectionist policy. Fuck him in his lame ass.

 

I guess Abbott was in the camp of "I don't think Trump literally means what he says", until Trump literally means what he says.

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Superhero

Superhero 9,022

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 6/7/2018 at 4:20 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Was listening to a podcast the other day about the Prisoner's Dilemma. Doing simulations using different strategies, the best strategy was what they called tit-for-tat. I.e. you treat me well, I treat you well. You fuck me, I fuck you back.

The Euros and Chinese are doing what Trump is doing to them. The only way to end the madness is for one side to change course. And you know it's not gonna be the dotard.

This business will get out of control.jpg

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F250

F250 29,200

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s largest business lobbying group and customarily a close ally of President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, is launching a campaign on Monday to oppose Trump’s trade tariff policies.

The new campaign, detailed first to Reuters, will provide an analysis of the financial hit each U.S. state stands take from potential retaliation to Trump’s tariffs. It argues that Trump is risking a global trade war that will hit the wallets of U.S. consumers.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-chamber-exclusive/exclusive-largest-u-s-business-group-attacks-trump-on-tariffs-idUSKBN1JS0VL

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106,889

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26 minutes ago, kevwun said:

That one is gonna sting because it gives lots of congress critters cover to come out against it.

Counterpoint: The US Chamber of Commerce is just a tool of the deepstate elite, they ARE the swamp, and therefore they are trying to keep Trump from MAGA!

The base will not be moved.  And if the base isn't moved, the brave souls in Congress will not be moved.

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plimon

plimon 190

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28 minutes ago, kevwun said:

That one is gonna sting because it gives lots of congress critters cover to come out against it.

The fact that they did the analysis on a state by state basis shows me they are trying to make a link with electoral vote tallies. Should be interesting to see how their data correlates.

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Js1

Js1 87,179

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16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: The US Chamber of Commerce is just a tool of the deepstate elite, they ARE the swamp, and therefore they are trying to keep Trump from MAGA!

The base will not be moved.  And if the base isn't moved, the brave souls in Congress will not be moved.

Bigly wrong, bro.

The base will not be moved.

Congress will though. Because the CoC + Koch brothers coming out against the tariffs = campaign contributions drying up.  Gotta suckle at the Koch teat for midterms.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106,889

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bigly wrong, bro.

The base will not be moved.

Congress will though. Because the CoC + Koch brothers coming out against the tariffs = campaign contributions drying up.  Gotta suckle at the Koch teat for midterms.

That's usually sound reasoning.  My hypothesis is that things have changed.  Trumpism didn't win because of expensive advertising.  It was -- for better or for worse (and clearly, WORSE) -- a grassroots movement.

Campaign cash and spending won't sway the cult that is the base.  They are laser-focused on Trumpism, and following it over the nearest cliff.  Facts and logic won't sway them.  BUT if a Congressman DARES come out against Trump, the King will declare the Congressman an apostate, and the faithful will punish him.

That's my hypothesis. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5,093

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bigly wrong, bro.

The base will not be moved.

Congress will though. Because the CoC + Koch brothers coming out against the tariffs = campaign contributions drying up.  Gotta suckle at the Koch teat for midterms.

From the article:

Quote

The Chamber also is expected to spend millions of dollars on the midterm elections this year in an effort to help elect like-minded candidates who back free trade, immigration and reduced taxes. It has already backed candidates in Republican primaries, who share those goals.

Campaign contributions aren't drying up.  Republicans continue to operate under the delusion they can oppose Trump while supporting the cowards who enable him.

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