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Trump's Trade War

F250

By F250
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Ted Lange
Ted Lange

Now let’s imagine a world where China decides to dump several hundreds of millions of dollars into a campaign to elect a democrat.  And that Democrat openly screams for Beijing’s support.  And uses in

Mojo Hand
Mojo Hand

Looks like Elkhart County went for Trump 64-32 over Hillary in 2016, so fuck 'em.  Enjoy the tariffs you voted for! 

Chooky
Chooky

Apparently China didn't heed the stark example of what happens to those in a battle of financial wit between Donald Trump and Dennis Rodman. Ask Clint Black or Gene Simmons what happens. Go ahead and

FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

Someone actually makes TVs here?  I had no idea.

Always assumed that Element TVs were made in China since they are so cheap. That sucks all around. A US manufacturer directly competing with Chinese manufacturers on entry level electronics for lower and middle class consumers. Seems like just the type of company that Trump would want to take credit for "bringing back."

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GhostOfTomJoad

GhostOfTomJoad 9508

Posted
Posted
Element is the Best Buy brand, right?

Yep. Basically a disposable TV assembled in America from cheap APAC parts. I bought a 32" one last year at Best Buy. Wanted something for the patio that I wasn't going to mount & could throw inside a deck cabinet when not in use. Hundred bucks. Laughed in the face of the cashier who tried to sell me the extended service plan.

 

Sucks to see they're being decimated by this trade war of Trump's making. 126 assembly jobs in S Carolina is nothing to sneeze at. But lib tears and all.

 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

How do you know that either the owners or the workers of Element were Trump supporters?

Probably a mix.   I expect we'd have heard more about this by now if, at minimum, the owners/management weren't Trump supporters.   They would have been out there vocally opposing the tariffs and warning they'd have to close.   I do feel bad for the Hillary voters who are getting screwed.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Probably a mix.   I expect we'd have heard more about this by now if, at minimum, the owners/management weren't Trump supporters.   They would have been out there vocally opposing the tariffs and warning they'd have to close.   I do feel bad for the Hillary voters who are getting screwed.

I feel like if they were Trump supporters, they'd be making up a bullshit line right now instead of saying the tariffs caused the shutdown. 

Much like the soybean farmers who kept slobbing Trumps knob as he dropped Cleveland steamers on them. 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I feel like if they were Trump supporters, they'd be making up a bullshit line right now instead of saying the tariffs caused the shutdown. 

Much like the soybean farmers who kept slobbing Trumps knob as he dropped Cleveland steamers on them. 

Yeah but they aren't closing; they are stopping operations for 3-6 months with plans to reopen when the tariffs go away.  That's the Trumpian line — that this is temporary pain that will pay off with no tariffs in a few months. 

FWIW, the owner Michael O'Shaughnessy is a massive R donor according to opensecrets, with several hundred thousand dollars in donations the last few years.  Hillary voter seems unlikely. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13725

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

They would be correct.  We're expecting a country that starved millions of people to bluff in a trade war?  

China will ultimately give trump something he can declare a win, all while China reaps more benefits.  We’ve already reached the point that trump will be the sole arbiter of what is and isn’t a victory.  

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Washpark

Washpark 176

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Posted

Trump may unintentionally drive change with China as countries are pushing back strongly against their policies.

Quote

BEIJING — China’s leaders have sought to project confidence in the face of President Trump’s tariffs and trade threats. But as it becomes clear that a protracted trade war with the United States may be unavoidable, there are growing signs of unease inside the Communist political establishment.

In recent days, officials from the Commerce Ministry, the police and other agencies have summoned exporters to ask about plans to lay off workers or shift supply chains to other countries.

With stocks slumping and the currency dropping 9 percent against the dollar since mid-April, censors have been deleting a torrent of criticism online, some of it directed at President Xi Jinping’s leadership.

State news outlets, by contrast, have sought to promote the official line, with the authorities restricting the use of the phrase “trade war.”

If the trade war escalates — and Mr. Trump has shown no sign of backing down — some worry that the public’s faith in the economy could be shaken, exposing the nation to much more serious problems than a drop in exports. New economic data on Tuesday showed slower growth in investment and consumer spending, and there are fears that the financial crisis in Turkey could spread.

China’s leaders have argued that they can outlast Mr. Trump in a trade standoff. Their authoritarian system can stifle dissent and quickly redirect resources, and they expect Washington to be gridlocked and come under pressure from voters feeling the pain of trade disruptions.

But the Communist Party is vulnerable in its own way. It needs growth to justify its monopoly on power and is obsessed with preventing social instability. Mr. Xi’s strongman grip may be hindering effective policymaking, as officials fail to pass on bad news, defer decisions to him and rigidly carry out his orders, for better or worse.

Beijing has already had to shift course once, edging away from threats to match American tariffs dollar for dollar. Confronting the possibility that the tariffs may remain for months or years and that Chinese access to the American market could tighten further, Mr. Xi does not appear to have settled on a strategy for limiting the damage or for persuading Mr. Trump to negotiate a deal.

Some inside the government have argued China should be more aggressive and put Mr. Trump on the defensive, while others have proposed concessions to address American complaints, said Chen Dingding, a professor of international relations at Jinan University in the southern city of Guangzhou.

He said the debate was “a healthy development” because it would “inform the public and make policymakers better.”

Others said it reflects indecision or political weakness on the part of Mr. Xi, who seemed unassailable in March when the Communist leadership abolished the presidential term limit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/asia/china-trade-war-trump-xi-jinping-.html

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F250

F250 29199

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Posted

In the past few days liberal organizations such as The US Chamber of Commerce, Heritage Foundation, NABE, and Cato Institute have continued to warn of the dangers that Trump's tariffs pose to the U.S. economy. Also a large number of businesses leaders will be speaking out during some public hearings about the tariffs. At this point does anyone still think Trump knows what the hell he is doing with regards to trade?

 

 

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, F250 said:

In the past few days liberal organizations such as The US Chamber of Commerce, Heritage Foundation, NABE, and Cato Institute have continued to warn of the dangers that Trump's Putin's tariffs pose to the U.S. economy. Also a large number of businesses leaders will be speaking out during some public hearings about the tariffs. At this point does anyone still think Trump Putin knows what the hell he is doing with regards to trade crippling the United States?

 

 

FIFY.  And yes.

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Bookman

Bookman 4758

Posted
Posted
On 8/15/2018 at 7:23 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China will ultimately give trump something he can declare a win, all while China reaps more benefits.  We’ve already reached the point that trump will be the sole arbiter of what is and isn’t a victory.  

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Taxpayers bailing out Trump and the farmers:  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/27/trump-farm-bailout-to-provide-6-billion-dollars-in-initial-relief.html

Looks like the trade war will come down to how much the US and Chinese govt is willing to spend.

 

It’s always been a pain game. Markets worldwide continue to predict that the US wins (or loses less). 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106876

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Taxpayers bailing out Trump and the farmers:  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/27/trump-farm-bailout-to-provide-6-billion-dollars-in-initial-relief.html

Looks like the trade war will come down to how much the US and Chinese govt is willing to spend.

 

Summary:

We shoot ourselves in the foot, with a taxpayer-supplied gun and bullet.

We then treat the gunshot wound....at taxpayer expense.

We proudly pin a marksman badge on our jacket, and declare victory (with a slight limp).

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106876

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

It’s always been a pain game. Markets worldwide continue to predict that the US wins (or loses less). 

We have a much lower pain threshold than China.  They saw 45 million people DIE in the Great Leap Forward.  Sure, their pain threshold isn't as high as it was then....but we're a country of people who are inconsolable if we lose high speed internet service for 15 minutes.  I'm betting on China.

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American Swindle

American Swindle 102

Posted
Posted
On 8/8/2018 at 8:14 AM, Mojo Hand said:

Trump voters getting fucked by Trump is my favorite part of his presidency.   Especially when they still support him despite getting fucked. 

You actually feel joy that American citizens are being hurt by tariffs? This right here is what's wrong with party politics. I would hope you were as rabid about Obama's tariffs on tires, but it wouldn't surprise me if you were not aware we spent 1.1 billion more on domestic tires due to those tariffs. 

The issue here is tariffs do not work and Trump and Obama were both regarded for implementing tariffs that hurt consumers.  

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, American Swindle said:

You actually feel joy that American citizens are being hurt by tariffs? This right here is what's wrong with party politics. I would hope you were as rabid about Obama's tariffs on tires, but it wouldn't surprise me if you were not aware we spent 1.1 billion more on domestic tires due to those tariffs. 

The issue here is tariffs do not work and Trump and Obama were both regarded for implementing tariffs that hurt consumers.  

I wouldn't say joy, but I'm glad that Trump voters are experiencing the consequences of the terrible policies they voted for.   I voted against those policies because I didn't want anyone to suffer from them, and I'll vote again in November to stall those policies.    But if we are going to have them, I want the people who inflicted them on the rest of us to feel the consequences as directly as possible.   It has nothing to do with their party; many don't even belong to a party.   It's about reaching selfish, ignorant, and often hateful voters.   Every Trump voter whose wife gets deported or loses his job from Trump tariffs learns a valuable lesson that will hopefully spare the rest of us next election.

Also, fuck 'em. 

Edited by Mojo Hand
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106876

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I wouldn't say joy, but I'm glad that Trump voters are experiencing the consequences of the terrible policies they voted for.   I voted against those policies because I didn't want anyone to suffer from them, and I'll vote again in November to stall those policies.    But if we are going to have them, I want the people who inflicted them on the rest of us to feel the consequences as directly as possible.   It has nothing to do with their party; many don't even belong to a party.   It's about reaching selfish, ignorant, and often hateful voters.   Every Trump voter whose wife gets deported or loses his job from Trump tariffs learns a valuable lesson that will hopefully spare the rest of us next election.

Also, fuck 'em. 

This.  Because of stupidity like this:

C377oqXVYAAmOVb.jpg

A good chunk of "we the people" need to learn some shit.  And it seems that the only way to learn certain lessons for certain folks is to actually touch the hot stove.  Am I happy that they just burned their hands?  Not particularly.  Am I happy that, by burning their hands, MAYBE they're learning that touching the hot stove is a stupid fucking thing to do?  Yep.

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I wouldn't say joy, but I'm glad that Trump voters are experiencing the consequences of the terrible policies they voted for.   I voted against those policies because I didn't want anyone to suffer from them, and I'll vote again in November to stall those policies.    But if we are going to have them, I want the people who inflicted them on the rest of us to feel the consequences as directly as possible.   It has nothing to do with their party; many don't even belong to a party.   It's about reaching selfish, ignorant, and often hateful voters.   Every Trump voter whose wife gets deported or loses his job from Trump tariffs learns a valuable lesson that will hopefully spare the rest of us next election.

Also, fuck 'em. 

I guess it’s similar to fast food workers demanding increased minimum wage and then they’re phased out for robots. I get no joy out of it though, because in neither case do I think they learn anything. They’ll blame somebody or something else. It’s easier. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106876

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mojo Hand said:

For most issues, it's hard for people to see cause and effect.   In your example, is it the wage or would technological advancement have resulted in the same consequence anyway?    It's up for debate.   That's why it's a good thing when cause and effect are so clearly connected — people can actually learn something.   If China and Europe cave to Trump's strength, I'll learn something, and it will be a good result for the US.   If they don't, Trump voters may actually be reachable.  Even though it's a bad short-term result for the US, there's a bright spot for long-term outlook.   The worst thing that could happen is that we suffer the full negative consequences of Trump's policies, but delayed just long enough so his voters can blame whoever is trying to clean up Trump's mess.   Then we get the worst of both worlds. 

Oh, and that's DEFINITELY where we should lay our bets.  Because stupid is our brand.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I guess it’s similar to fast food workers demanding increased minimum wage and then they’re phased out for robots. I get no joy out of it though, because in neither case do I think they learn anything. They’ll blame somebody or something else. It’s easier. 

For most issues, it's hard for people to see cause and effect.   In your example, is it the wage or would technological advancement have resulted in the same consequence anyway?    It's up for debate.   That's why it's a good thing when cause and effect are so clearly connected — people can actually learn something.   If China and Europe cave to Trump's strength, I'll learn something, and it will be a good result for the US.   If they don't, Trump voters may actually be reachable.  Even though it's a bad short-term result for the US, there's a bright spot for long-term outlook.   The worst thing that could happen is that we suffer the full negative consequences of Trump's policies, but delayed just long enough so his voters can blame whoever is trying to clean up Trump's mess.   Then we get the worst of both worlds. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46157

Posted
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1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

For everyone’s perusal. I haven’t read myself yet. Trying to get out the door at work.

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/august/modernizing-nafta-be-21st-century

 

No possible way dotus read this.  Had he noticed the last section, it would have been right out.

Quote

ENVIRONMENT

The United States and Mexico have agreed to the most advanced, most comprehensive, highest-standard chapter on the Environment of any trade agreement. Like the Labor chapter, the Environment chapter brings all environmental provisions into the core of agreement and makes them enforceable.

Key Achievement: Most Comprehensive Set of Enforceable Environmental Obligations

The Environment chapter includes the most comprehensive set of enforceable environmental obligations of any previous United States agreement, including obligations to combat trafficking in wildlife, timber, and fish; to strengthen law enforcement networks to stem such trafficking; and to address pressing environmental issues such as air quality and marine litter

Environment obligations include:

  • Prohibitions on some of the most harmful fisheries subsidies, such as those that benefit vessels or operators involved in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. 
  • New protections for marine species like whales and sea turtles, including a prohibition on shark-finning and commitment to work together to protect marine habitat. 
  • Obligations to enhance the effectiveness of customs inspections of shipments containing wild fauna and flora at ports of entry, and ensure strong enforcement to combat IUU fishing.
  • First-ever articles to improve air quality, prevent and reduce marine litter, support sustainable forest management, and ensure appropriate procedures for environmental impact assessments. 
  • Robust and modernized mechanisms for public participation and environmental cooperation.

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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44 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

No possible way dotus read this.  Had he noticed the last section, it would have been right out.

 

Wow. That's a good one. Can you do the labor supportive sections too?

I lean more toward that's he's aware of these and fine with them. Imposing regulations on our trading partners that we already cover, or are closer to covering currently, gives us a competitive advantage. Unless I'm reading it wrong, it seems pretty simple. It's analogous IMO to established companies embracing more regulation because they can handle it and their smaller competitors have more trouble bearing the cost.

From the fact sheet presented it seems like a good deal.  I'll be interested to hear what we gave up as well as any other criticisms.

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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Actually the more I think of it, the more I think the framework is a deal almost everyone would be ok with. This is with the caveats that we don’t know the enforcement mechanisms or the terms of the final signed deal.

The negative is an unknown increase in the cost of goods produced in Mexico that would be felt to some extent by consumers here. This is offset by American relative competitive advantage gained by imposing more stringent labor and environmental standards on our trading partners.

What part of that are Democrats upset with? 

Who is upset by that deal, besides strict free trade advocates? People upset that Trump is going to sign it? 

I’m interested to hear the beefs with it. There are people here who definitely know more about the past deals and how this compares than me, but seems like mostly positive.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19525

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Actually the more I think of it, the more I think the framework is a deal almost everyone would be ok with. This is with the caveats that we don’t know the enforcement mechanisms or the terms of the final signed deal.

The negative is an unknown increase in the cost of goods produced in Mexico that would be felt to some extent by consumers here. This is offset by American relative competitive advantage gained by imposing more stringent labor and environmental standards on our trading partners.

What part of that are Democrats upset with? 

Who is upset by that deal, besides strict free trade advocates? People upset that Trump is going to sign it? 

I’m interested to hear the beefs with it. There are people here who definitely know more about the past deals and how this compares than me, but seems like mostly positive.

Well, it's not going to pass, so it doesn't matter.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Actually the more I think of it, the more I think the framework is a deal almost everyone would be ok with. This is with the caveats that we don’t know the enforcement mechanisms or the terms of the final signed deal.

The negative is an unknown increase in the cost of goods produced in Mexico that would be felt to some extent by consumers here. This is offset by American relative competitive advantage gained by imposing more stringent labor and environmental standards on our trading partners.

What part of that are Democrats upset with? 

Who is upset by that deal, besides strict free trade advocates? People upset that Trump is going to sign it? 

I’m interested to hear the beefs with it. There are people here who definitely know more about the past deals and how this compares than me, but seems like mostly positive.

Of course you’re ok with the deal. You lick trumps boots and ass every chance you get, simply asking mr. trump which one he prefers today.

since you are supposedly so familiar with the deal, why don’t you inform us of the greatness of it, warts and all?

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Of course you’re ok with the deal. You lick trumps boots and ass every chance you get, simply asking mr. trump which one he prefers today.

since you are supposedly so familiar with the deal, why don’t you inform us of the greatness of it, warts and all?

I don’t lick Trump’s ass every chance I get. Do you see me comment on every single thread on a regular basis like so many posters here?  No you don’t.  If I don’t comment on something Trump says or does, don’t assume I’m for it. I may be for it, may be against it, not know enough about it, or not even care about it. These are all possibilities. Shocking, I know.

I just read the fact sheet presented above.  You’re welcome to read it yourself. Just found an angle in it that I found interesting. To my point, you seem to have no issue with it so far other than it must be bad because people that “lick Trump’s boots and ass” think it’s a good deal. I’m curious to hear what issues serious posters here have with it. 

I will say I have no idea how the IP section is different or better or whatever. I’m going to assume however that Mexico has had a loose adherence to IP law given their attention to other areas. 

27 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Well, it's not going to pass, so it doesn't matter.

Is that the word on the street?  What’s the reasoning against passing it? Are Dems against better environmental and labor protections enforced on our trading partners? That would be an unusual stance. They’re suddenly free trade absolutists over those things? Very interesting. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19525

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I don’t lick Trump’s ass every chance I get. Do you see me comment on every single thread on a regular basis like so many posters here?  No you don’t.  If I don’t comment on something Trump says or does, don’t assume I’m for it. I may be for it, may be against it, not know enough about it, or not even care about it. These are all possibilities. Shocking, I know.

I just read the fact sheet presented above.  You’re welcome to read it yourself. Just found an angle in it that I found interesting. To my point, you seem to have no issue with it so far other than it must be bad because people that “lick Trump’s boots and ass” think it’s a good deal. I’m curious to hear what issues serious posters here have with it. 

I will say I have no idea how the IP section is different or better or whatever. I’m going to assume however that Mexico has had a loose adherence to IP law given their attention to other areas. 

Is that the word on the street?  What’s the reasoning against passing it? Are Dems against better environmental and labor protections enforced on our trading partners? That would be an unusual stance. They’re suddenly free trade absolutists over those things? Very interesting. 

It's not the Democrats you have to worry about. I don't think this particular deal can get enough Republican votes, mainly because it's currently bilateral.

This is the beginning of a very long process. 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

It's not the Democrats you have to worry about. I don't think this particular deal can get enough Republican votes, mainly because it's currently bilateral.

This is the beginning of a very long process. 

It’ll be interesting to follow.  I just scanned twitter and found Cornyn, Thune, and Scalise tweet about it. Like I said, I’m not seeing the strong political argument against it. 

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