Trump's Trade War

[GRHorn 105]

 

[David Dennison 19525]

I'm not saying it's NAFTA, but it's NAFTA.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I'm not saying it's NAFTA, but it's NAFTA.

I like the deal. They should keep the NAFTA name. USMCA could be confused with the Marine Corps, and it doesnt flow. 

I guess it appeases Central America because they always complain that they are in North America too.  I never knew Trump to be so PC. 

[David Dennison 19525]

6 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I like the deal. They should keep the NAFTA name. USMCA could be confused with the Marine Corps, and it doesnt flow. 

I guess it appeases Central America because they always complain that they are in North America too.  I never knew Trump to be so PC. 

No one is going to call it by the rebrand.

It's NAFTA.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

No one is going to call it by the rebrand.

It's NAFTA.

I'll call it ussemkah

[swraith 348]

Based on the timeline, will the current Congress review the deal or will the next Congress review it ?

[F250 29199]

4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

I'm not saying it's NAFTA, but it's NAFTA.

Trump was against NAFTA before he was for it. So far this seems like a rebranding of NAFTA with a dash of TPP added into the mix.

Its almost like he realized a continuation of his trade war with Canada and Mexico was a bad idea and just needed a quick win so he went with the plans from the previous administration.

[Caracara 41]

As I understand it, China won't be able to use NAFTA anymore to avoid tariffs, and there's a provision about north americans making a nice minimum wage in the manufacturing of goods

 

[Js1 87175]

59 minutes ago, swraith said:

Based on the timeline, will the current Congress review the deal or will the next Congress review it ?

The House has already adjourned until midterms.  So either they'll bring it up in the lame duck or it won't get touched until 2019.

[David Dennison 19525]

42 minutes ago, F250 said:

Trump was against NAFTA before he was for it. So far this seems like a rebranding of NAFTA with a dash of TPP added into the mix.

Its almost like he realized a continuation of his trade war with Canada and Mexico was a bad idea and just needed a quick win so he went with the plans from the previous administration.

A lot of the of the stuff in NAFTA 2.0 was negotiated by the Obama administration during TPP talks. 

[0xdeadbeef 1699]

31 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

A lot of the of the stuff in NAFTA 2.0 was negotiated by the Obama administration during TPP talks. 

Maybe they should have kept TPP to be an actual trade agreement rather than a F-ing quagmire of a legal  framework. 

 

Edited October 1, 2018 by 0xdeadbeef

[David Dennison 19525]

2 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Maybe they should have kept TPP to be an actual trade agreement rather than a F-ing quagmire of a legal  framework. 

 

But then how would The Donald be able to re-brand and take credit?

[Lagunamadre 1975]

1 hour ago, Caracara said:

As I understand it, China won't be able to use NAFTA anymore to avoid tariffs, and there's a provision about north americans making a nice minimum wage in the manufacturing of goods

 

So American consumers are going to be left holding the bag as the price of goods will shoot up? Capitalism and price discovery be damned. 

[swraith 348]

A lot of the of the stuff in NAFTA 2.0 was negotiated by the Obama administration during TPP talks. 

Is that a prediction that Democrats will support this agreement ?

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

A lot of the of the stuff in NAFTA 2.0 was negotiated by the Obama administration during TPP talks. 

I was wondering what the spin would be for an undisputed Trump victory. Should have known. 

[David Dennison 19525]

3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I was wondering what the spin would be for an undisputed Trump victory. Should have known. 

It's not spin. Do a little reading. 

[0xdeadbeef 1699]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's not spin. Do a little reading. 

You spin me right 'round, baby
Right 'round like a record, baby

 

 

[F250 29199]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I was wondering what the spin would be for an undisputed Trump victory. Should have known. 

Serious question. Why did Trump spend so much time trashing NAFTA, TPP and Free Trade Agreements in general, only to turn around and produce what amounts to an FTA that is a minor adjustment of NAFTA with some TPP concessions?

 

 

[F250 29199]

From Congressman Amash who cannot be accused of being a liberal. His libertarianism might make him a RINO but definitely not a liberal.

 

[Zavala 1384]

Just give it a watch all the way though. Mind bottling.

 

[GRHorn 105]

21 hours ago, David Dennison said:

A lot of the of the stuff in NAFTA 2.0 was negotiated by the Obama administration during TPP talks. 

“A lot of the stuff”

15 hours ago, F250 said:

Serious question. Why did Trump spend so much time trashing NAFTA, TPP and Free Trade Agreements in general, only to turn around and produce what amounts to an FTA that is a minor adjustment of NAFTA with some TPP concessions?

 

 

He bashed them as bad deals that needed to be exited/renegotiated, on a country by country basis if needed. 

[David Dennison 19525]

9 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

“A lot of the stuff”

He bashed them as bad deals that needed to be exited/renegotiated, on a country by country basis if needed. 

Then why didn't he do that?

[F250 29199]

22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

“A lot of the stuff”

He bashed them as bad deals that needed to be exited/renegotiated, on a country by country basis if needed. 

And that accomplished what? We ended up in the same place without the good faith that is necessary in global trade. Trade goes against human tribal instincts, all parties need to trust their trading partners to overcome those instincts, burning good faith is damaging to trade in the long run.

 

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20911]

Ford preparing for mass layoffs, partly caused by trade tariffs:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-prepares-mass-layoffs-losing-002618564.html

[happyfunball 481]

Hahahha, suck it!

Quote

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is not planning to extend an up to $12 billion aid package for farmers into 2019, Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Monday, to mitigate farmer losses due to the imposition of tariffs on American exports.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-perdue/u-s-agriculture-chief-says-no-plan-to-extend-farm-aid-to-offset-tariffs-idUSKCN1N32JW

[Biff Tannen 46158]

Hope they all vote in the midterms.

[JohnnyRage 1617]

12 billion was half the fucking cost of "The Wall".

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

On October 30, 2018 at 10:49 PM, Biff Tannen said:

Hope they all vote in the midterms.

Many will still vote for Trump. They don't care if it costs them money. They got a tax cut and protection from the brown illegals. I mean, Hillary used a private email server. What else were they supposed to do?

[Message Board User 12405]

This was only predicted by anybody who had a couple brain cells to rub together.

 

[Asithappens 978]

I wonder how many of those farmers voted for Trump, and it's not like Trump hid the ball with his nationalistic trade policy. 

But hey, the farmers will get yet another gubmint handout, perhaps to the tune of $12 billion. 

Farmer welfare, gotta love it.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Asithappens

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

Can't let the corn farmers have all the fun. 

[Francisco 2.0 32586]

https://www.axios.com/china-lobster-soy-trade-war-8cd315a2-678a-4d0e-930a-03ca7b36ed16.html

 

Quote

Three weeks ahead of a meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping, Beijing is notching record exports and figuring out how to manage without American goods. 

Why it matters: Despite tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, Trump has appeared to fail to budge Xi on his determination to do whatever it takes to dominate the technologies of the future.

Quote

One of the trade war's most immediate U.S. victims is Maine lobster fishing, writes Bloomberg's Shawn Donnan. In line with Trump's tariffs, China slapped 25% levies on $128 million-a-year in U.S. lobster imports, and Maine's industry — cultivated over a decade and more — got hit.

China is simply buying its lobsters elsewhere — such as just over the border in Nova Scotia, Canada. 

The list goes on. Parag Khanna, author of the forthcoming, "The Future is Asian," tells Axios that China is finding ways to permanently substitute for American imports. 

Last summer, China slashed U.S. oil imports and started to buy more Russia and Saudi Arabia. 

It has all-but halted purchases of U.S. soybeans, buying them instead from Brazil and Argentina. Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia could emerge as another soybean supplier.

China very much wants to make and design its own high-end semiconductors as part of its aspirational Made in China 2025 program. For now, Khanna said a third of its high-tech imports come from U.S. companies. But it can begin to replace these from its Asian neighbors.

 

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

Give me low priced lobster and I'll do my part to pick up the slack. 

[retread 2951]

 

[atomheartbevo 90638]

Some of those Trumpkins will have to sell the family farm or boat, and they will still vote for Trump.   

Because her emails.  And caravans coming to take their jobs.  

[Biff Tannen 46158]

All part of the plan I presume.

[Nivek 17406]

Normally, I would smile at this. but in reality, it just means more welfare for farmers.  

[tchookem 3967]

Normally, I would smile at this. but in reality, it just means more welfare for corporate farmers.  

Fify

[happyfunball 481]

Looks like the deep state is ignoring Trumps progress with President Xi

[happyfunball 481]

 

[Brian Fantana 6862]

Knew there had to be something going on with that what with Trump's tweets.

[happyfunball 481]

[happyfunball 481]

Quote

The SEC and PCAOB jointly released a statement on the challenges they face with respect to access to China to regulate U.S. listed Chinese companies. There is nothing new in this statement, but it is noteworthy because of its existence and timing. 

For those have not been following the issue, the PCAOB is mandated by Sarbanes-Oxley to inspect accounting firms that audit U.S. listed companies, including foreign accounting firms. When the PCAOB attempted to come to China to inspect firms (mainly local affiliates of the Big Four) auditing U.S. listed companies China blocked them on the basis of national sovereignty. Attempts to find alternatives also foundered on arguments that the working papers might contain state secrets.  The PCAOB was also blocked from inspecting Hong Kong firms to the extent the work related to the mainland.

After the wave of frauds by U.S. listed Chinese companies in the past ten years, the SEC finally got fed up with the intransigence of the Big Four firms about producing their working papers and brought charges against the firms. The firms argued to a SEC administrative trial judge that they were caught between a rock and hard place, having to decide whether to break Chinese or American law, and the judge appropriately observed that if that were the case, it was only because the firms put themselves in that position when they decided to do U.S. audits for Chinese companies. The judge threw the book at the Big Four, and BDO. The firms appealed and settled with the SEC paying a $500,000 penalty each and promising not to sin again. 

The PCAOB has succeeded in agreeing on enforcement cooperation with Chinese regulators, but has been unable to reach agreement on inspections, arguably a more important issue for investors than enforcement. Inspection are used to make certain that audits of U.S. listed companies comply with U.S. auditing standards, which is especially important in a market like China, where accounting practices are often “flexible”.

The primary champion of getting PCAOB inspections in China was former PCAOB chairman James Doty, who together with the rest of the PCAOB board and much of its management was forced out in a purge after the Trump election. This is the first comment on the issue that I am aware of by Doty’s replacement, Republican loyalist William Duhke III.  

The remedy to China’s refusal to allow inspections has been what is referred to as the nuclear option. The PCAOB could deregister accounting firms that it cannot inspect. The consequence of that would be that most U.S. listed Chinese companies (and some multinational firms) would be unable to file audited financial statements with the SEC and without being granted an exception would be delisted from U.S. exchanges. This has been viewed as a step too far for the PCAOB, since it would likely hurt investors in the Chinese companies. Most of these investors are Americans, since it is difficult for Chinese to buy shares of companies listed in the U.S. because of currency restrictions.  The result of a mass delisting would likely be a surge of IPOs on the Hong Kong exchange. 

http://www.chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/pcaob-enlists-in-the-trade.html

[GRHorn 105]

Boy this thread fell way down the list.

A couple interesting links I’ve seen lately. 

“Cramer-Tech execs tell me they support Trump’s trade policy on China”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/14/cramer-tech-execs-tell-me-they-support-trumps-trade-policy-on-china.html

“China is losing the trade war in nearly every way”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/01/14/china-is-losing-the-trade-war-in-nearly-every-way/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

A couple things. 

1)The trade war with China is about more than just one company’s business.

2) It just took me scanning it to see that their sales have dropped 8 straight quarters.

Trade war is being used as convenient excuse and makes nice headline.

[Blotto 24011]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

A couple things. 

1)The trade war with China is about more than just one company’s business.

2) It just took me scanning it to see that their sales have dropped 8 straight quarters.

Trade war is being used as convenient excuse and makes nice headline.

So it's your contention that steel prices have not skyrocketed for US manufacturing companies in 2018? CAT, 3M and many others who have cited Trump's tariffs as reasons for falling profits are just lying? Trump could shit in your wife's mouth, tell you its chocolate, and you'd thank him for the kind gesture.

http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-double-digit-increases-in-us-steel-prices-to-the-highest-in-the-world-are-crippling-us-manufacturers/

[GRHorn 105]

12 hours ago, Blotto said:

So it's your contention that steel prices have not skyrocketed for US manufacturing companies in 2018? CAT, 3M and many others who have cited Trump's tariffs as reasons for falling profits are just lying? 

Are steel prices up? Yes 

Do CEOs routinely play up outside influences as reasons for poor performance? Yes 

As I said, this trade war is way bigger than one company. I do see this as a national security issue.

We should be addressing a country that steals valuable technology and IP from us on a regular basis way before we should be chasing terrorists in the Middle East imo. 

[Brisketexan 106876]

13 hours ago, GRHorn said:

A couple things. 

1)The trade war with China is about more than just one company’s business.

2) It just took me scanning it to see that their sales have dropped 8 straight quarters.

Trade war is being used as convenient excuse and makes nice headline.

What's really interesting is that it seems you didn't even read the entirety of the article you first posted.  Wait till you get to the part about China playing a long game, and being able to do so.  It's a HOOT.  Also, it's a concept that anyone dealing with China needs to fully grasp before they start playing stupid games.

[GRHorn 105]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What's really interesting is that it seems you didn't even read the entirety of the article you first posted.  Wait till you get to the part about China playing a long game, and being able to do so.  It's a HOOT.  Also, it's a concept that anyone dealing with China needs to fully grasp before they start playing stupid games.

Of course I did.

Yes, everyone knows Trump faces re-election before Xi and Xi has control over his media etc.  Thus he can take more pain. Thanks for that groundbreaking input.   But he’s also starting from a worse starting position. 

The question is how much pain is it going to inflict on both countries? 

The stock market is not everything, but is forward looking. Take a look at Chinese vs US equities. Who does it look like the trade war is hurting most?