Trump's Trade War

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

Manufacturing moves from China to Vietnam and other countries.  How exactly does that help 'Murica workers?

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

40 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

China considering dumping US treasuries

If you really want to see shit hit the fan...  This will result in a spike in interest rates then we're proper fucked.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If you really want to see shit hit the fan...  This will result in a spike in interest rates then we're proper fucked.

China won’t do it but they’re right to threaten to do it.  They know any strong move like that could have a devastating ripple effect throughout the global economy.   The thing that worries me is this economic war mutating into actions that involve military movements and provocations. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

They aren't going to dump all their treasuries, but they can flood the market with enough to get dotard to back down pretty fucking quick.  He being a spineless pussy and everything makes it pretty easy.

[bernorange 8,363]

 

[happyfunball 481]

Some quick one liners from this AM:
- US LNG hit wit 25% tariffs
- China may stop Boeing orders
- China may stop purchasing US ag products
- China considering dumping US treasuries
 

China has a shortage of USD already. Not likely to happen.

[happyfunball 481]

So you’re saying bitch ass big business is using the government to protect their long term business interest at the expense of the short term interest of the little guy consumers and farmers in the United States? 
How very, American. 
 

It is broader than big business interest. This is long term economic and national security that needs to be protected against China’s aggression. The belief that China will change over time with engagement was wrong.

Re effectiveness of tariffs: I never believed or argued Trump was intelligent or his approach effective. His approach has been terrible and yet to be seen if it will be effective. With that said, he is the first administration that has actually confronted the China threat instead of burying their heads in the sand.

[happyfunball 481]

Wsj had a good article that the trade talks had already fallen apart prior to Trump’s tweets. China won’t agree to the basics for a real change in the relationship.

[happyfunball 481]

We are likely to win when both countries get bloody.

[David Dennison 18,945]

1 hour ago, happyfunball said:

We are likely to win when both countries get bloody.
 

It's a cold war.

It's never getting hot.

[HenryJames 66,160]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14,600]

Tom Cotton is one of those that portrays himself as a thoughtful and independent conservative but if you read anything he ever writes or listen to anything he ever says, he's the epitome of a party hack that just repeats the talking points.

He wrote some piece for the WSJ not too long ago where he argued for a new foreign policy but as he talked through it, he justified every involvement by Republicans and criticized every involved by Democrats.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

(probably) interesting article from the Economist.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/04/27/why-you-should-never-start-a-trade-war-with-an-autocracy

I say probably, because it is paywalled, but here is the outline:

https://outline.com/Aeup2j

Never Start A Trade War with an Autocracy.

Upshot:  China's retaliatory tariffs are focused on Trump country.  61% of jobs hurt are in counties that voted for Trump.  Is it on purpose?  Yes. 

Economics put together 1000 random tariffs with real world examples.  Compare the fake ones with the real ones: 

- those from the EU hurt EU countries' economies less than 99% of the fake ones (i.e., EU's actual tariffs don't hurt their own economies more than a random one 99% of the time) and hurt Trump voters more than 87% of the random ones.   

- those from China hurt the Chinese economy more than 99% of the fake ones.  They hurt Trump country more than 99% of the fake ones.

The lesson:  if you don't have to answer to your own voters, you can really flex with your tariffs.   

Quote

The authors then compared real-world policies with these alternatives. First, they assessed the political impact of each plan, by measuring how closely its targeted areas matched Republican gains when Mr Trump was elected. Next, they estimated how much each policy would harm a retaliating bloc’s own economy, by counting the share of its imports of the chosen goods that come from America. The more a country relies on one supplier, the more switching to a less efficient source is likely to hurt.

The study found that the EU prioritised minimising such damage. Its tariffs deftly protected domestic consumers, causing less disruption than 99% of alternatives. The bloc targeted Trump voters as well—its tariffs matched the election of 2016 more closely than in 87% of simulations—but not at the cost of upsetting its own citizens.

In contrast, China focused on punishing Trump voters. Its tariffs tracked the election better than 99% of alternatives. They also disrupted China’s own economy more than in 99% of simulations. Even among plans including soyabeans—one of China’s main imports, grown mostly in Republican areas—China’s policy was just slightly more politically targeted than similar options, but far worse for its economy.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Tom Cotton is one of those that portrays himself as a thoughtful and independent conservative but if you read anything he ever writes or listen to anything he ever says, he's the epitome of a party hack that just repeats the talking points.

He wrote some piece for the WSJ not too long ago where he argued for a new foreign policy but as he talked through it, he justified every involvement by Republicans and criticized every involved by Democrats.

His behavior during the “shithole” gate fiasco when he sacrificed his integrity for loyalty to Trump was the big red flag on Tom Cotton, at least for me.  He should never serve in public office again after that. 

Edited May 13, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

It's funny that Trump tells the story about how China unexpectedly backed out with 95% agreed to as if it makes his actions look better.   That's called getting played in a negotiation, and it's exactly what keeps happening to Trump with North Korea.  China is sucking up the short-term pain and stringing Trump along to put him in a position where he is more desperate to cut any deal that he can pretend is an amazing one, and he somehow can't figure out what is happening. 

[TornACL 7,722]

1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

It's funny that Trump tells the story about how China unexpectedly backed out with 95% agreed to as if it makes his actions look better.   That's called getting played in a negotiation, and it's exactly what keeps happening to Trump with North Korea.  China is sucking up the short-term pain and stringing Trump along to put him in a position where he is more desperate to cut any deal that he can pretend is an amazing one, and he somehow can't figure out what is happening. 

The problem as always is DJT can't keep his mouth shut. 

Even if they were once at 95% agreed, once dipshit starts bragging to the media and spiking the ball in the end zone, he's given leverage back to the other side. Now he's invested politically and now they have greater leverage. 

It's really sometimes like this guy has never actually negotiated a deal in his life. He trips over his dick constantly, and his only effective tool is blackmail or extortion. 

[RomaVicta 29,968]

3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Tom Cotton is one of those that portrays himself as a thoughtful and independent conservative but if you read anything he ever writes or listen to anything he ever says, he's the epitome of a party hack that just repeats the talking points.

He wrote some piece for the WSJ not too long ago where he argued for a new foreign policy but as he talked through it, he justified every involvement by Republicans and criticized every involved by Democrats.

In other words, he's Susan Collins? Hell, they're all Susan Collins.

[Francisco 2.0 32,416]

8 minutes ago, TornACL said:

The problem as always is DJT can't keep his mouth shut. 

Even if they were once at 95% agreed, once dipshit starts bragging to the media and spiking the ball in the end zone, he's given leverage back to the other side. Now he's invested politically and now they have greater leverage. 

It's really sometimes like this guy has never actually negotiated a deal in his life. He trips over his dick constantly, and his only effective tool is blackmail or extortion. 

He never has.

Oh, he can claim to, but when your negotiations are "take it or leave it" to someone with less money and attorneys than you have, negotiations are easy.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,521]

5 hours ago, happyfunball said:

 

It is broader than big business interest. This is long term economic and national security that needs to be protected against China’s aggression. The belief that China will change over time with engagement was wrong.

Re effectiveness of tariffs: I never believed or argued Trump was intelligent or his approach effective. His approach has been terrible and yet to be seen if it will be effective. With that said, he is the first administration that has actually confronted the China threat instead of burying their heads in the sand.

 

This is my feeling as well. Past admins left China alone for too long and allowed them to have overly favorable trading terms and/or we didn't push them to adhere to agreements.  Now we have to face painful consequences.

With that being said, Trump will have no real idea how to negotiate this. Sure at some level he can negotiate business deals but this goes beyond his abilities to manage. He will want some 3 sentence trading agreement and a handshake.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Can we put a full embargo on Russia while we’re at this? 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Trump lost a billion dollars in the 80’s and 90’s, was the biggest loser of money in time during that period of time, bankrupted a football league, somehow bankrupted a casino, declared bankruptcy 7 total times, had any legitimate bank except very shady Deutsch bank and the Russian mob refuse to lend him money, for a very good reason.

He’s the anti Midas. Everything he ever touches turns to shit. Now he’s the president of the USA. Guess we’ll see what happens to the USA next. 

[Nivek 16,979]

Trump lost a billion dollars in the 80’s and 90’s, was the biggest loser of money in time during that period of time, bankrupted a football league, somehow bankrupted a casino, declared bankruptcy 7 total times, had any legitimate bank except very shady Deutsch bank and the Russian mob refuse to lend him money, for a very good reason.
He’s the anti Midas. Everything he ever touches turns to shit. Now he’s the president of the USA. Guess we’ll see what happens to the USA next. 

Have you not been watching?

[4th&Five 41,586]

Warren should start calling him brokeahontas. 

[David Dennison 18,945]

1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:

Warren should start calling him brokeahontas. 

That's funny.

[Hornius Emeritus 12,481]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Warren should start calling him brokeahontas. 

 

Oh, man ... nothing would get Trump's goat more than "brokehontas."  He might have an apoplectic fit if she kept using it over and over.

[babysdaddy 2,728]

Measurable and enforceable. Without those there will be no deal. How to do that while letting the Chinese leadership save face is the trick. Don’t know if it’s doable so we’ll end up in a standoff for who is under the most pressure. I’ve heard from people close to the negotiations that Xi is. Trump has to have a deal in place prior to year end in order for it to filter into gdp numbers by q2 and q3 print in 2020. In fact, he may be trying to fuck these current negotiations up in order to artificially load the numbers when a deal gets cut. Given the economy is his only path to reelection.

[tx 3 putt 77,336]

Xi is the ruler for life, how is he under pressure ?

on top of that, he can get rid of any vocal critics and controls the media

Edited May 14, 2019 by tx 3 putt

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

Xi is the ruler for life, how is he under pressure ?

4d chess brah

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Xi is the ruler for life, how is he under pressure ?

He knows people close to the negotiations. 

[Blotto 23,568]

Motherfucker, what I wouldnt give to sit in on a high stakes poker game with that fucking retard. He has one mode....pick a plan, and then push, bluff, push bluff, etc.....dude is icono level retarded and somehow gets to call the shots for 350 million people. Sad!

[TwiceHorn 31,529]

The only hope for this is that pros know what they're doing and can get the Cartoon President to stay on script long enough to get it done.

[tx 3 putt 77,336]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The only hope for this is that pros know what they're doing and can get the Cartoon President to stay on script long enough to get it done.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

The only hope for this is that pros know what they're doing and can get the Cartoon President to stay on script long enough to get it done.

I take it you haven’t read the Bob Woodward book?   Trump really thinks he can just print more money if his economic problems get bad enough.  

Trump is what I would be like as president, as an eight year old. 

[retread 2,951]

Are there any pros left in this administration?

[TwiceHorn 31,529]

6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I take it you haven’t read the Bob Woodward book?   Trump really thinks he can just print more money if his economic problems get bad enough.  

Trump is what I would be like as president, as an eight year old. 

Well, so has every other administration going back a quarter century.

He didn't come up with China as a problem on his own.  Someone told him it was a problem.  Maybe someone will tell him a solution.

[retread 2,951]

It would be fascinating and scary to follow him around for a week and watch his daily routine. China one minute, Iran the next, NK the next, Mueller and angry Ds the next.

[Mdhorn 5,984]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

He knows people close to the negotiations. 

the best people.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

The only hope for this is that pros know what they're doing and can get the Cartoon President to stay on script long enough to get it done.

Have you not been watching?

Edited May 14, 2019 by Fudge Nuggets

[F250 28,814]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Xi is the ruler for life, how is he under pressure ?

on top of that, he can get rid of any vocal critics and controls the media

He isn't the ruler for life, he just isn't limited to term limits. Technically he could remain in control for the rest of his life assuming he doesn't fuck up. The pressure is for him not to fuck up. Personally, I think the deliberalization of the Chinese market is a major fuck up that will eventually bite him in the ass.

[HenryJames 66,160]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,521]

His comments contradict himself and his strategy too much. He encourages Americans to start manufacturing companies as opposed to buying from China. Nothing wrong with that if he’s willing to keep the tariffs indefinitely. But he states that he hopes to make a deal with China to end all tariffs. No one would invest a dime in building out any manufacturing capacity in the US right now.  Too risky.

[tucker 238]

8 hours ago, retread said:

Are there any pros left in this administration?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Lighthizer

Quote

Politico describes Lightizer as "a decades-long skeptic of Beijing."[24] Lighthizer has accused the country of China of unfair trade practices,[28] and he believes that China needs to make substantive and structural changes to its trade policies, as opposed to only minor changes it has offered in the past.[29] He wrote: "The icon of modern conservatism, Ronald Reagan, imposed quotas on imported steel, protected Harley-Davidson from Japanese competition, restrained import of semiconductors and automobiles, and took myriad similar steps to keep American industry strong. How does allowing China to constantly rig trade in its favor advance the core conservative goal of making markets more efficient? Markets do not run better when manufacturing shifts to China largely because of the actions of its government."[28]

Lighthizer suggested that the U.S. should bring more cases against China for failure to comply with the regulations of the World Trade Organization. In testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in 2010, Lighthizer stated that "USTR (U.S. Trade Representative) should pursue WTO litigation with respect to all such examples of non-compliance. If necessary, Congress should give USTR additional resources to increase its ability."[30]

 

[babysdaddy 2,728]

Xi is the ruler for life, how is he under pressure ?
on top of that, he can get rid of any vocal critics and controls the media

Financial and economic pressure. And I didn’t say I know anyone. I said I heard, as in listened to someone give a speech, two weeks ago.

[HenryJames 66,160]

 

[WhatTheBuck 28,797]

12 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Warren should start calling him brokeahontas. 

Credit to Bill Maher for that one. 

[WhatTheBuck 28,797]

8 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Those poor forgotten corn farmers and their decades of government subsidies. 

[4th&Five 41,586]

4 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Credit to Bill Maher for that one. 

I think it was on Twitter before he said it. Pretty sure that’s where he gets most of his jokes. 

[atomheartbevo 89,778]

16 hours ago, TornACL said:

The problem as always is DJT can't keep his mouth shut. 

Even if they were once at 95% agreed, once dipshit starts bragging to the media and spiking the ball in the end zone, he's given leverage back to the other side. Now he's invested politically and now they have greater leverage. 

It's really sometimes like this guy has never actually negotiated a deal in his life. He trips over his dick constantly, and his only effective tool is blackmail or extortion. 

If I was a car salesman, Trump would be my ideal victim customer.  Same goes with being a real estate agent.  

[Homercles 10,206]

The problem as always is DJT can't keep his mouth shut. 
Even if they were once at 95% agreed, once dipshit starts bragging to the media and spiking the ball in the end zone, he's given leverage back to the other side. Now he's invested politically and now they have greater leverage. 
It's really sometimes like this guy has never actually negotiated a deal in his life. He trips over his dick constantly, and his only effective tool is blackmail or extortion. 

[atomheartbevo 89,778]

23 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

China won’t do it but they’re right to threaten to do it.  They know any strong move like that could have a devastating ripple effect throughout the global economy.   The thing that worries me is this economic war mutating into actions that involve military movements and provocations. 

The GOP is not dumb enough to get in a shooting match with China over economic issues.  China isn’t that dumb either.