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Trump's Trade War

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

This is where I am at.. The blustering and bullying people into submission tactic is not going to work against China of all people. They would literally allow a million people starve to death to not cede any ground to the USA. This was not a well thought out plan that will backfire and cause a lot of political damage. 

The blustering is going to work out the same way it always appears to.  Blah blah blah tweet. Response.  Blah blah blah tweet. Response. Resolution that appears quite similar to the status quo. 

 

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Ted Lange
Ted Lange

Now let’s imagine a world where China decides to dump several hundreds of millions of dollars into a campaign to elect a democrat.  And that Democrat openly screams for Beijing’s support.  And uses in

Mojo Hand
Mojo Hand

Looks like Elkhart County went for Trump 64-32 over Hillary in 2016, so fuck 'em.  Enjoy the tariffs you voted for! 

Chooky
Chooky

Apparently China didn't heed the stark example of what happens to those in a battle of financial wit between Donald Trump and Dennis Rodman. Ask Clint Black or Gene Simmons what happens. Go ahead and

atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Jesus.  We're the United Stupid States of America, and we get EXACTLY the government we deserve.

We only have over 300 million people to choose from.

So of course we're gonna run the place like a banana republic with 10 million people.

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bernorange

bernorange 8346

Posted
Posted
Quote

...
China is of course a command economy with a state-controlled banking system. It can bathe the economy with stimulus and order lenders to refinance bad debts. It has adequate foreign reserve cover to bail out its foreign currency debtors. But it is also dangerously stretched, with an "augmented fiscal deficit" above 12 per cent of GDP.

It is grappling with the aftermath of an immense credit bubble that has pushed its debt-to-GDP ratio from 130 per cent to 270 per cent in 11 years, and it has reached credit saturation. Each yuan of new debt creates barely 0.3 yuan of extra GDP. The model is exhausted.
...

 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/investments/china-has-the-financial-arsenic-to-ruin-the-us-but-will-it-use-it-20180407-p4z89u.html

Quote

...
Chinese growth has been reported in recent years as 6.5–10% but is actually closer to 5% or lower once an adjustment is made for the waste. The Chinese landscape is littered with “ghost cities” that have resulted from China’s wasted investment and flawed development model.

This wasted infrastructure spending is the beginning of the debt disaster that is coming soon. China is on the horns of a dilemma with no good way out.

On the one hand, China has driven growth for the past eight years with excessive credit, wasted infrastructure investment and Ponzi schemes. The Chinese leadership knows this, but they had to keep the growth machine in high gear to create jobs for millions of migrants coming from the countryside to the city and to maintain jobs for the millions more already in the cities.

The Communist Chinese leadership knew that a day of reckoning would come. The two ways to get rid of debt are deflation (which results in write-offs, bankruptcies and unemployment) or inflation (which results in theft of purchasing power, similar to a tax increase).

Both alternatives are unacceptable to the Communists because they lack the political legitimacy to endure either unemployment or inflation. Either policy would cause social unrest and unleash revolutionary potential.

Instead of these unpalatable extremes, the Chinese leadership is trying to steer a middle course with gradual financial reform and gradual limits on shadow banking. I’ve previously predicted that this gradual policy would not work because the credit situation is so extreme that even modest reform would slow the economy too fast for comfort.

That’s exactly what has happened. China has already flip-flopped and is easing up on financial reform. That works in the short run but just makes the credit bubble worse in the long run. China may soon resort to a combination of a debt cleanup and a maxi-devaluation of their currency to export the resulting deflation to the rest of the world.

It is probably the best way to avoid the social unrest that terrifies China.

When that happens, possibly later this year in response to Trump’s trade war, the effects will not be confined to China. A shock yuan maxi-devaluation will be the shot heard round the world as it was in August and December 2015 (both times, U.S. stocks fell over 10% in a matter of weeks).
...

 

https://dailyreckoning.com/trade-matter-survival-china/

I guess one path to maintaining petrodollar supremacy would be a Chinese economic implosion.  Of course, that would affect everyone, not just China though.

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bernorange

bernorange 8346

Posted
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...

There is little doubt that a true trade war will reduce global growth. But many are wondering if we’re facing a trade war or just a series of head fakes by Donald Trump as he pursues the art of the deal?

For example, Trump imposed Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and then almost immediately carved out exemptions for Canada and Mexico pending progress on NAFTA. Then the president trumpeted a trade deal with South Korea that imposed quotas on steel imports but almost immediately said that deal was conditional upon South Korean help in dealing with North Korea.

Trump threatened over $50 billion of Section 301 penalties on China for theft of U.S. intellectual property, but within days China and the U.S. calmed market fears by announcing plans for bilateral trade negotiations.

So is it really a trade war, or just a set of negotiating tactics?

I believe the trade war scenario is more likely.

Yes, Trump offered relief to Canada and Mexico on the steel tariffs. But that was only so he could gain negotiating leverage on the NAFTA talks that are ongoing. If Canada and Mexico fail to give Trump the concessions he wants on NAFTA, those steel tariffs can bounce back to hit Canada and Mexico as they already hit China and Brazil.

Meanwhile, Trump will wait to see if China is willing to make concessions in the intellectual property area. If not, he can easily double or triple that $60 billion figure.

My take is that this trade war is not going away anytime soon. It will last for years, get much worse and be a major headwind for stock prices ...

But I admit that Trump has left enough wiggle room to indicate he could back off the trade wars if he can exact enough concessions from China and the NAFTA countries.

...

https://dailyreckoning.com/roller-coaster-nowhere/

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snacks said:

Somebody tell me I'm not crazy...  The United States is the protectionist state and China is the free trade state... in an election year.

 

 

Thats because you're going to vote for a pro-gun protectionist instead of someone who pays lip service to gun control (while doing nothing), but is pro free trade. Wulaw is going to vote for a protectionist who claims to be pro life.

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Slacks

Slacks 6791

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Thats because you're going to vote for a pro-gun protectionist instead of someone who pays lip service to gun control (while doing nothing), but is pro free trade. Wulaw is going to vote for a protectionist who claims to be pro life.

I'm going to vote for Dee.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26232

Posted
Posted
Thats because you're going to vote for a pro-gun protectionist instead of someone who pays lip service to gun control (while doing nothing), but is pro free trade. Wulaw is going to vote for a ______________* who claims to be pro life.

fify

 

 

*Except ‘asshole’**

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**anymore

 

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Horn Dog

Horn Dog 9644

Posted
Posted

Trump is a moron and his trade war is poorly thought out.   With that said, something needs to be done about China demanding our intellectual technology in order to do business with them.  That should absolutely not be allowed, and we should be willing to go to the mat to protect it.  If Trump somehow accidently addresses that issue I will have to give him props. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14446

Posted
Posted (edited)

Xi said Beijing will "significantly lower" tariffs on auto imports this year and ease restrictions on foreign ownership in the auto industry as soon as possible.

We will see if China follows through, but it appears that they are the 1st to blink, which makes sense, they would get destroyed in a trade war, though not as bad as the US consumer.

Edited by HtownHorn
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Hook1997

Hook1997 5269

Posted
Posted (edited)

The tariffs on raw goods like steel, rubber, etc should of been done a long time ago before it got to this point...   Would have saved a lot of GDP production and industry but we passed the point of no return a while back.

Edited by Hook1997
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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28700

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

The tariffs on raw goods like steel, rubber, etc should of been done a long time ago before it got to this point...   Would of saved a lot of gdp production and industry but we passed the point of no return a while back.

Of isn't a verb. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28700

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

The tariffs on raw goods like steel, rubber, etc should of been done a long time ago before it got to this point...   Would have saved a lot of GDP production and industry but we passed the point of no return a while back.

Nope, not fixed yet. 

You make the same mistake twice, it's not an accident. You don't know the language, professor. 

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5269

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Nope, not fixed yet. 

You make the same mistake twice, it's not an accident. You don't know the language, professor. 

Well good thing I’m not in English class right now.....    It’s a message board proper perfect writing not required.  You get the point of the post....

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted (edited)

Back on topic:

Big news, potentially, if they follow through, from China this morning:

Quote

Xi promises to ‘open’ up China’s markets — and cut tariffs on car imports

Published: Apr 10, 2018 3:19 a.m. ET

 

Boao, CHINA — Chinese President Xi Jinping promised foreign companies greater access to China’s financial and manufacturing sectors, pledging Beijing’s commitment to further economic liberalization amid rising trade tensions with the U.S.

In a speech that officials had billed as a major address, Xi said Tuesday that plans are under way to accelerate access to the insurance sector, expand the permitted business scope for foreign financial institutions and reduce tariffs on imported automobiles and ownership limits for foreign car companies.

...

An interesting series of words juxta-positioned against their bombastic reporting of how strong they would be not many days ago.

China playing the long game.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-xi-promises-to-open-chinas-markets-to-foreign-businesses-2018-04-09

 

edit:  ok maybe not what I remembered, still contrast, maybe not bombastic:

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1096987.shtml

 

From cnn:

Quote

...

Trump complained as recently as Monday about China's 25% tariff on foreign cars, pointing out that it's far higher than the 2.5% tariff the United States charges for imported cars. "Does that sound like free or fair trade," Trump tweeted. "No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE - going on for years!"

...

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/09/news/economy/china-xi-jinping-economy-trade/index.html

Edited by zork
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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9797

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, zork said:

Back on topic:

Big news, potentially, if they follow through, from China this morning:

An interesting series of words juxta-positioned against their bombastic reporting of how strong they would be not many days ago.

China playing the long game.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-xi-promises-to-open-chinas-markets-to-foreign-businesses-2018-04-09

 

edit:  ok maybe not what I remembered, still contrast, maybe not bombastic:

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1096987.shtml

 

From cnn:

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/09/news/economy/china-xi-jinping-economy-trade/index.html

So....most progress toward fair trade with China since Monica was. Passing out BJs in the Oval. American grew the Chinese GDP more than our own during Obama. 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10395

Posted
Posted

Those headlines are a bit overly-sensational. Isn't that basically the same thing Xi has been saying for the better part of a year? And well before Trump came up with this tariff idea? Not saying Trump's blustering didn't have an impact, but I guess we'll see what comes of it.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/4/2018 at 2:14 PM, Anastasis said:

No.  I think that there will be some blustering, some market reaction, some more blustering, more market reaction and then we sit down carve something out that lets Trump and China save face without meaningfully impacting the status quo. 

Oh hai.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-china-agree-abandon-trade-war-beijing-043915337.html

 

Beijing (AFP) - Washington and Beijing have agreed to abandon any trade war and back off from imposing tariffs on each other, Chinese state media reported Sunday.

The announcement came after high-level talks in the US capital and followed months of tensions over what President Donald Trump has blasted as an unfair commercial relationship between the two economic giants.

Vice-Premier Liu He, who led Chinese negotiators in Washington said: "The two sides reached a consensus, will not fight a trade war, and will stop increasing tariffs on each other," state-run news agency Xinhua reported Sunday.

Liu called the agreement a "necessity", but added: "At the same time it must be realised that unfreezing the ice cannot be done in a day, solving the structural problems of the economic and trade relations between the two countries will take time."

An earlier joint statement issued in Washington said Beijing would "significantly" increase its purchases of American goods, but offered few details.

Edited by Anastasis
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Newy25

Newy25 7638

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Washpark said:

Trump and team folded like a cheap lawn chair

No trade war and empty promises from China

Think you are dead wrong here. And so was I, for the record. Looks like standing up to China’s nonsense might have yielded some progress. 

Devil is always in the details. 

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Washpark

Washpark 176

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

Think you are dead wrong here. And so was I, for the record. Looks like standing up to China’s nonsense might have yielded some progress. 

Devil is always in the details. 

We’ll see. I’d bet lots of money that I turn out rights. 

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5813

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Newy25 said:

Think you are dead wrong here. And so was I, for the record. Looks like standing up to China’s nonsense might have yielded some progress. 

Devil is always in the details. 

There are no details. There is nothing. You just want to believe there are details. He did nothing. He is a whimp who can’t negotiate for shit. 

Edited by Dr. Teeth
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Newy25

Newy25 7638

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Dr. Teeth said:

There are no details. There is nothing. You just want to believe there are details. He did nothing. He is a whimp who can’t negotiate for shit. 

Ok Freud I dont want to believe anything. I am on the record here criticizing his strategy and tactics. 

But it looks like there is s good chance this might have worked to a degree. I’m willing to admit when I am wrong. 

Edited by Newy25
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Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Newy25 said:

Think you are dead wrong here. And so was I, for the record. Looks like standing up to China’s nonsense might have yielded some progress. 

Devil is always in the details. 

Trump backed off tariffs and he backed off ZTE. What he received in return is vague promises about China buying "more stuff." 

What the fuck are they going to buy when all the factories are in China? If Trump wants to seriously change the trade deficit he can pressure companies like Apple and a shitload of other companies who realized they would be immensely more profitable building their shit in China.

But the chances of that are slim. He was so pissed off about factories in other countries that he slapped US corporations already raking in record profits with a huge tax cut. Go get 'am killer.

Edited to add: don't get me wrong, I thought the tariffs were a huge mistake, and I'm glad we appear to backing off that approach. But Trump is fucking clueless and hasn't accomplished a damn thing. We are right back where we were 6 months ago.

Edited by Blotto
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Parliament

Parliament 14112

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

 

However, I see tons of posts on here about how China is supposedly the master strategists of the world, perfectly executing grand long game schemes at all times.  No, actually they have a rich history of screwing up and manage to do everything really shoddily even with 1 billion people at their disposal whom they can compel to do anything they want.   Stoicism shouldn’t be mistaken for wisdom or competence.

Yeah their One Child Policy is a great example.  Hey, let's load up on men who can't get laid!  That's not a social time bomb at all!

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31184

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

I expect the details are going to be pretty bad for the USA because we all know Trump only cares about appearances and getting an initial headline he can tout as winning, with no regard for real substance.

However, I see tons of posts on here about how China is supposedly the master strategists of the world, perfectly executing grand long game schemes at all times.  No, actually they have a rich history of screwing up and manage to do everything really shoddily even with 1 billion people at their disposal whom they can compel to do anything they want.   Stoicism shouldn’t be mistaken for wisdom or competence.

That is truly fantastic.  Great post.

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kevwun

kevwun 15595

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is the equivalent of accidentally lighting your house on fire and then managing to put it out before it burns to the ground.  Then bragging about how great of a firefighter you are.  Creating a problem and then managing to get back to the status quo of how things were before you made the mess is not an accomplishment.

Edited by kevwun
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wildcat09

wildcat09 29187

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The problem was the trade deficit. Which keeps growing by billions each year. You don’t like his method, but simply ignoring it was not the proper response. (See illegal immigration and ss# reform also). 

Its ok to take a look at the issue with out the Trump rage. 

What about the trade deficit is bad?

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18606

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Oh hai.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-china-agree-abandon-trade-war-beijing-043915337.html

 

Beijing (AFP) - Washington and Beijing have agreed to abandon any trade war and back off from imposing tariffs on each other, Chinese state media reported Sunday.

The announcement came after high-level talks in the US capital and followed months of tensions over what President Donald Trump has blasted as an unfair commercial relationship between the two economic giants.

Vice-Premier Liu He, who led Chinese negotiators in Washington said: "The two sides reached a consensus, will not fight a trade war, and will stop increasing tariffs on each other," state-run news agency Xinhua reported Sunday.

Liu called the agreement a "necessity", but added: "At the same time it must be realised that unfreezing the ice cannot be done in a day, solving the structural problems of the economic and trade relations between the two countries will take time."

An earlier joint statement issued in Washington said Beijing would "significantly" increase its purchases of American goods, but offered few details.

Our fearless president caved to preserve the status quo.

So much winning.

 

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9797

Posted
Posted (edited)

I don’t think China’s policy to steal intellectual property from American companies is not a good thing for our country. Forced partnerships creating a barrier for entry into the market that does not exist in the USA. 

thats just one

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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F250

F250 28659

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

I don’t think China’s policy to steal intellectual property from American companies is not a good thing for our country. Forced partnerships creating a barrier for entry into the market that does not exist in the USA. 

thats just one

And could you explain why trade deficits are bad?

 

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Washpark

Washpark 176

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

What did we get that we didn't have when Trump started with the tariffs? 

He brought China and North Korea to the table, and we all are too stupid to know that there will be a great reveal any moment just like a TV show!

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