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Fire Shaka Smart

smokebomb

By smokebomb
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Js1

Js1 86945

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Posted
1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

No we are not. If we lose to OU, beat OSU, and lose in the 1st round of the Big 12 tournament, Texas is going to the NIT again. Our OOC was terribad.

Yes.  What if we go 1-1 and win a game in the tournament? 

Tech: goes 0-2
WV/Texas/OU: 1-1

Texas is the #5 seed in the tournament despite a 3 way tie for 1st and plays #4 Tech

So is a loss to current NET 40, a win over current NET 68 and a win over current NET 23 in the Big 12 tournament enough? We would then have to face KU in the semifinals.  I don't know if NET works like RPI in that a loss to a highly ranked team (NET #1) helps you more than it hurts. 

 

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Red Five
Red Five

That is tough to accomplish in four years, but I wouldn't put it past Shaka.

immamac
immamac
Camelback80
Camelback80

Shaka should definitely get at least one more year. Many of his recruits will finally be upperclassmen by then, and he'll have his best shot of any year he's been here. Fans need to realize 2 maj

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

There has to be a lesson there, but I'm not sure what it is.  Mostly it seems to be "play a bunch of Q1 teams", which can be hard to control, given conference ties.  Q4 results are a wash.  Apparently our Q3 results didn't matter at all.  We played more Q2 teams and did statistically worse, but played fewer Q1 teams and did statistically better.

Ranking  Team  Overall/Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4/Non-D1

46 UMinn   13-15/5-12/2-2/1-1/5-0/0-0

59 UT  18-11/4-7/2-4/6-0/6-0/0-0 

 

I guess it's an argument that strength of schedule is key, perhaps (to some degree) regardless of results.  How 'bout we don't schedule such a crappy OOC schedule any more?

I’m pretty sure that Q3 and Q4 aren’t counted in tournament resume unless they are losses. It also serves as a SOS measure. The committee has shown that they would rather a 17 win team challenge itself than a 19 win team that played a 300+ SOS (Georgetown usually). When you’re on the bubble though you’ve got to win games that matter. So 2-2 against Q2 is always going to look better than 1-4. Especially if conference strength is similar. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14906

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1 minute ago, Jhawk said:

I’m pretty sure that Q3 and Q4 aren’t counted in tournament resume unless they are losses. It also serves as a SOS measure. The committee has shown that they would rather a 17 win team challenge itself than a 19 win team that played a 300+ SOS (Georgetown usually). When you’re on the bubble though you’ve got to win games that matter. So 2-2 against Q2 is always going to look better than 1-4. Especially if conference strength is similar. 

so our 4-7 looks better than their 5-12 and they have a Q3(bad) loss and there is a 5 win differential in wins overall(not a couple).  IMO we should be ahead of them...but 11 spots behind?

I think we are ranked fine but UM is much higher than they should be.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46979

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5 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I’m pretty sure that Q3 and Q4 aren’t counted in tournament resume unless they are losses. It also serves as a SOS measure. The committee has shown that they would rather a 17 win team challenge itself than a 19 win team that played a 300+ SOS (Georgetown usually). When you’re on the bubble though you’ve got to win games that matter. So 2-2 against Q2 is always going to look better than 1-4. Especially if conference strength is similar. 

Sure, but stack UMinn VS Texas a slightly different way:

UMinn +1 win against Q1

UMinn -5 losses against Q1

 

Just on %, one would expect UT to have one more win against Q1 if they had played the same # teams.  

The real answer, and it's why I should stop belaboring the point, is that there's not much difference between #46 and #59.  It's still odd to see the former at 13-15 and the latter at 18-11, when both are from strong P5 conferences.

 

 

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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Texas' 10 best wins based on KenPom rankings:

#14 WVU

#23 TTU

#25 Purdue (who is 15-14)

#61 Okie State

#82 Northern Colorado

#83 TCU

#83 TCU

#85 ISU

#99 K State

#99 K State 

 

Minnesota's 10 best wins:

#8 Ohio State

#8 Ohio State

#15 Michigan

#20 Penn State

#24 Wisconsin

#61 Okie State

#63 Clemson

#134 Northwestern

#134 Northwestern 

#156 FIU

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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I’m not trying to imply I know the answer. I also haven’t looked at their resume closely.

NET is based off quadrant wins, SOS, game locations, scoring margin (capped at 10 ppg), and then the net offensive and defensive efficiencies. Feels just showed that Minny is much better in the efficiency category. I haven’t looked at the rest of the resumes but the math had got to be somewhat reasonable I would assume. Keep in mind, minny isn’t making the tourney even if they are ranked better than teams who make it. At some point you have to win games. 

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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btw, Texas' three worst losses this season according to kenpom rankings are to #85 ISU, #59 Georgetown, and #46 Providence. Every other loss we've had has been to a team in the top 40, which means that we've really only been losing to good teams. HOWEVER, this also means that if our coach didn't revel in exclusively scheduling a bunch of pussy ass teams in the non conference then we'd likely have a few more impressive wins on our resume and would be in much better shape.  

Eight of our wins this season came against teams ranked:

141

157

187

194

202

214

259

340

replace those 8 teams with 8 teams ranked between 65-140 and and we probably go 5-3 or 6-2 and would at this point truly be one away from being in the tourney. god I fucking hate Shaka's pussy-ass scheduling so much, and this year it's boned us. 

but on the bright side, Kai Jones, Donovan Williams, Brock Cunningham, and Will Baker got a TON of valuable experience during that cake walk of a schedule, so it's all good!

#FuckShaka #FireShaka 

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dcar00

dcar00 14906

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48 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I’m not trying to imply I know the answer. I also haven’t looked at their resume closely.

NET is based off quadrant wins, SOS, game locations, scoring margin (capped at 10 ppg), and then the net offensive and defensive efficiencies. Feels just showed that Minny is much better in the efficiency category. I haven’t looked at the rest of the resumes but the math had got to be somewhat reasonable I would assume. Keep in mind, minny isn’t making the tourney even if they are ranked better than teams who make it. At some point you have to win games. 

agreed that UM isn't making the tourney.  I'm not upset about it at all it just seems like a big outlier.

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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Posted

I figured their SOS has to be off the charts and it is. #1 overall and 78 noncon. That’s the only way they are that high. Surprised they have the #1 overall with that noncon. This is according to kenpom. 

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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3462

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Posted
9 hours ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

He's done for the year, as is Febres. I believe Liddell is as well, but it's been awhile since I heard an update.

Interesting that we have multiple guys with pretty much the same back injury the fist year under a new strength coach. 

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Js1

Js1 86945

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1 hour ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Interesting that we have multiple guys with pretty much the same back injury the fist year under a new strength coach. 

I do get a fist vibe from her 

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toronto

toronto 13

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Posted

Time to give Shaka some credit. He always has the team peaking at the perfect time of the season. Only reason the team didn't win the national championship last year was because of a conspiracy to keep them out of the NCAA tourney.

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Js1

Js1 86945

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3 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

I don’t care how we get in, I just want to make it. Fuck the coaching search for now, we know he sucks

And possibly getting in over OU because we did that is fantastic. 

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orangecat92

orangecat92 306

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Posted

Shaka is gonna win at least one game in the tourney, and his agent is gonna come in sky high expecting four more years and a big pay raise.  Hopefully cdc is so ice cold that the agent gets upset and tells Shaka it’s time to move on.  Home attendance avg. is still going to be one of the worst years.  

Some teams will be interested.  Should be interesting.  

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Wade

Wade 464

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

Shaka is gonna win at least one game in the tourney, and his agent is gonna come in sky high expecting four more years and a big pay raise.  Hopefully cdc is so ice cold that the agent gets upset and tells Shaka it’s time to move on.  Home attendance avg. is still going to be one of the worst years.  

Some teams will be interested.  Should be interesting.  

This fantasy is stupid on so many levels.  Yet you keep posting it.

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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wade said:

This fantasy is stupid on so many levels.  Yet you keep posting it.

Yes, please let me know the next time CDC is "ice cold" with a coach that will cost him millions of dollars to fire. CDC wants to be collegial with everyone and he doesn't want to "waste" money (quotes meaning that's how he sees the expenditure). 

At this point, unless we lose to OSU and in our first B12 tourney game-- both of those things would have to happen-- we'll squeak in. Last four in, play-in game, whatever it ends up being, doesn't matter. We have pretty much clinched the bid by accomplishing the "best case" scenario from ten days ago-- we just swept WVU, Tech, and OU, two of those on the road, while not (so far) blowing any of the bunnies.

Smart will be back next season. 

Edited by SwanderedTalent
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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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...and Greg Brown will be playing somewhere else. once thought to be a Texas lock because of his relationship with Shaka, GBIII is now almost certain to be playing at Auburn, Memphis, Kentucky, or some other school not named Texas next year. the last two years took a lot of shine off of UT, and GBIII's dad (former Longhorn DB Greg Brown, who is running the show here), says that winning big in Greg's one year of college will be his top priority. Also, we aren't going to pay him as much as Auburn or Memphis will, so we're shit out of luck. 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

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CheesePie

CheesePie 238

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Posted (edited)

I really do hope we see a bigger and more engaged crowd at the drum Saturday for okie lite. Despite all of Shaka’s schadenfreude, the players have been playing their asses off and have finally produced the results we all expect. They deserve a nice showing form the fans.

Edited by CheesePie
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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

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2 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

...and Greg Brown will be playing somewhere else. once thought to be a Texas lock because of his relationship with Shaka, GBIII is now almost certain to be playing at Auburn, Memphis, Kentucky, or some other school not named Texas next year. the last two years took a lot of shine off of UT, and GBIII's dad (former Longhorn DB Greg Brown, who is running the show here), says that winning big in Greg's one year of college will be his top priority. Also, we aren't going to pay him as much as Auburn or Memphis will, so we're shit out of luck. 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

to be fair, that was always going to be a cash transaction, so I'm not heartbroken we didn't get into a bidding war with those three dirty ass programs

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Js1

Js1 86945

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12 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

Only if we have a weak AD.  Public perception shouldn't matter to a real leader.  He's shit his pants for five years.  

I hate this line - CDC is not "weak" if he keeps Shaka.  He's probably getting next to no pressure from BMDs if we make the tournament and the added result of reducing the buyout for another year.  He's only weak in the eyes of Texas message boards, I doubt he gives a rip. 

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orangecat92

orangecat92 306

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I hate this line - CDC is not "weak" if he keeps Shaka.  He's probably getting next to no pressure from BMDs if we make the tournament and the added result of reducing the buyout for another year.  He's only weak in the eyes of Texas message boards, I doubt he gives a rip. 

Is he weak if he gives a 3 or 4 year extension?

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Js1

Js1 86945

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Posted
Just now, orangecat92 said:

Is he weak if he gives a 3 or 4 year extension?

Shaka has a guaranteed contract already through 2022-2023.  Why the fuck would we give him an extension? 

CDC isn't fucking dumb and he's not Perrin.  You keep Shaka on his current contract and make him earn himself an extension next year or fire him then. 

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