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Fire Shaka Smart

smokebomb

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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5 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Knowing how often you're woefully wrong and completely off base with your predictions I'm suddenly hopeful for our future. 

What is off about my comment?  Is the contract not what I stated it is?  Have we not seen coaches like him before?  He isn't even dancing with the girl that got him to UT in his havoc D.  What signal do you have that says he'll ever be successful?

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Red Five
Red Five

That is tough to accomplish in four years, but I wouldn't put it past Shaka.

immamac
immamac
Camelback80
Camelback80

Shaka should definitely get at least one more year. Many of his recruits will finally be upperclassmen by then, and he'll have his best shot of any year he's been here. Fans need to realize 2 maj

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

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1 hour ago, Jhawk said:

I just looked up Shaka's contract.  If he is fired after this season he is owed $12.9mm.  I don't even think UT boosters are up for that sum.  His contract is fully guaranteed through 2023.  I don't know that he is even touchable until after the 2021 season given his buyout and how little UT Basketball will mean as football starts to take its spot as a NY6+ program again.

 

I feel nauseous.  

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Js1

Js1 85085

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16 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

He may very well do enough to get fired this year.  Wins against UNC and Arkansas were nice, but this team isn’t as good as last year’s team.  The getting to 19/20 wins and the tournament scenario is plausible, but by no means guaranteed.  I personally think conference play is going to be rough.  I like Jaxson Hayes a lot, but he’s still raw.  Roach is good.  The rest of this team has a lot of issues, or at least they do within the confines of Shaka’s program.

Roach is also very inconsistent.

To follow up a 32-6-7 performance against UNC, he goes... 15-2-5 and 7-7-3 (AGAINST RADFORD). He had more turnovers than FGs.

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ClubWhatever

ClubWhatever 12086

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The conference seems to be a little worse this year.  WVU and Baylor have had a rocky start. TCU and Tech both look worse than they were last year.    He very well might be able to get to 9-9.    Add another 4 more non-con wins, and it puts him at 19.  That's probably going to get him another year, with CDC pointing to the recruiting class coming in.   Then, if we do about the same next year, it gets real interesting with the contract.  We don't want to recruit with a coach having 2 years left on his deal and who the AD doesn't want to extend.  Maybe you just eat one bad year in recruiting to get to a low single digit buy out.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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I can't agree with those who say that a season of ~19 wins, .500 in conference, and limping into the tourney buys Shaka some time. CDC strikes me as a very sharp guy, and I don't think he's the kind to say, "Well, we made the tourney again and the recruiting has been good, so he gets another year." I think he's the kind of guy who recognizes that Shaka has consistently rolled out poorly coached teams, and that some arbitrary level of accomplishment doesn't override that fact. $13 million is a lot of money,  but I think that CDC *has* to be aware of the bottom line- that Shaka's teams are poorly coached, regardless of win totals- and that he would make the move after this year if he had the right candidate lined up to replace him.

 

Fan excitement is at 0. We're trying to open up a new stadium and we want people to fill it and spend their money there, and with this fan base it's very simple- if we are a winning program the fans will come, if we aren't, then they won't. And that will cost us a hell of a lot more than $13 million. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32097

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Interesting comment from Eric Nahlin at IT, with the caveat that I'm not sure how plugged these guys are into the basketball program (except maybe Tim Preston):

Quote

CDC isn’t beholden to Shaka. I’ve heard he needs a good season, in the neighborhood of Sweet 16.

If he has an ‘Oklahoma State’ moment let me know and I’ll start asking around.

Tons of season left.

 

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RichUT

RichUT 1791

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I’m confident that the athletics department can’t and/or won’t foot the full bill for the buyout. If CDC wants to remove Shaka, he’ll have to put feelers out to big money to see how much they are willing to fork over to expedite Shaka’s exit. I’d be super interested to see how important basketball relevancy is to that crowd, as I’ve long operated under the assumption that the answer to that question is “not very”. If I’m right, he’ll stick around for at least another year. If I’ve misjudged it, we’ll be in the market for a new coach.

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Machinator

Machinator 32097

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Just now, RichUT said:

I’m confident that the athletics department can’t and/or won’t foot the full bill for the buyout. If CDC wants to remove Shaka, he’ll have to put feelers out to big money to see how much they are willing to fork over to expedite Shaka’s exit. I’d be super interested to see how important basketball relevancy is to that crowd, as I’ve long operated under the assumption that the answer to that question is “not very”. If I’m right, he’ll stick around for at least another year. If I’ve misjudged it, we’ll be in the market for a new coach.

I'm curious as to how improved performance in the other two men's revenue sports affects interest in the others. There's an argument to be made that if football and baseball are doing well, people are more willing to overlook the mediocrity in basketball, given that for many of our fans, it's merely a diversion between the end of college football season and spring ball. On the other hand, I wonder if renewed interest in those two sports drives up overall engagement with all sports teams. As this athletics department rises from the ashes, men's basketball is sticking out like a sore thumb with the potential for stagnancy.

We already cut the dead weight on the women's side (Connie Clark), but that was much easier because there was no firing to be done.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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Posted (edited)

I really believe it's the latter. Because whether or not we want to admit it, on some level every single one of us believes in the "We're Texas" mantra, and for good reason. "We are the Joneses", as DeLoss famously said. These aren't just catch phrases, these are things that all Texas fans deep down believe and know to be true. We don't run around shouting it from the rooftops, but at the end of the day there isn't a person alive who supports Texas athletics who doesn't believe that we should always have the best of everything in every sport, no excuses. We have the money, we have the facilities, we have the history, and therefore we have the expectation. Winning again in football and baseball is only going to remind people that our basketball program is one coaching hire away from being right back where it needs to be.

Edited by Goo Punch
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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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CDC gets paid to know the opportunity cost so he'll get to display his mastery of it soon.  Derka is right that .500 in league isn't going to cut it and CDC has to know that winning is the "bottom line" BUT there is also a lot firmer "bottom line" that CDC has to monitor and that is the one that is either red or black.

It is amazing to me how many times dumb luck and dumb administration line up with each other.  If shaka didn't get that extension then CDC could have moved on him last spring and gotten Chris Mack in the door.  UT is not a more prestigious program but it is definitely a big time program and you can definitely win it all at UT and UT doesn't have the mess that UL has.  Dumb luck that CDC walks into that contract and bad timing and dumk admin in that UT had an AD that signed that contract in the first place.  If CDC has a can't miss coach then the timing will be much faster.  But I don't think he spends $12.9mm to take a chance on Archie Miller or someone of his ilk.  He would likely only pull the trigger if he had someone like Alford (kidding), Bennett, Mack, Chris Holtman, or Chris Beard lined up.  Believe me when I say (as a KU football fan) that you don't want to make big payouts and then "risk it" on your second (or third) hire in a row.  You'll never fill a new stadium if you follow up a mediocre hire with another hire that looks good on paper but doesn't pan out.

Luckily, CDC is a good administrator and he'll get it cleaned up.  I don't think it will be this year unless UT is well in the black (assuming shaka doesn't perform).  What is the status on the arena?  Has fundraising begun?  Is the money committed?  If it hasn't really gotten going yet then you might be 2+ years away from occupancy.  That helps the buyout figures.  CDC could even quietly raise an extra $6-10mm for "resources" for men's basketball (i.e. firing shaka).

Edited by Jhawk
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closetojumping

closetojumping 62141

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Listen, I’m not here to inspire hope, so take this however you’d like, but if CDC wants to make a move, they’ll be able to do it after this season. There is a) a lot riding on the work going into the new arena and b) a fuck ton of legacy aspirations from both CDC and money built into CDC’s tenure as AD. Smart needs to produce or he’s out. 

Separately, the concept of self-reporting violations in order to short circuit paying a buyout, at Texas, is so comically absurd that I had to read it like 4 times to ensure I wasn’t missing some sort of joke. That’s wrong on 3-4 different levels. 

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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48 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Listen, I’m not here to inspire hope, so take this however you’d like, but if CDC wants to make a move, they’ll be able to do it after this season. There is a) a lot riding on the work going into the new arena and b) a fuck ton of legacy aspirations from both CDC and money built into CDC’s tenure as AD. Smart needs to produce or he’s out. 

Separately, the concept of self-reporting violations in order to short circuit paying a buyout, at Texas, is so comically absurd that I had to read it like 4 times to ensure I wasn’t missing some sort of joke. That’s wrong on 3-4 different levels. 

I said in a later post that it was “tongue in cheek” and then equated it to the pirate. I don’t know how it could be taken as anything other than a joke unless you think tech isn’t a joke of a school with how they handle their business. 

So yeah. You did miss some sort of joke. 

Edited by Jhawk
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Brian Fantana

Brian Fantana 6667

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23 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I said in a later post that it was “tongue in cheek” and then equated it to the pirate. I don’t know how it could be taken as anything other than a joke unless you think tech isn’t a joke of a school with how they handle their business. 

So yeah. You did miss some sort of joke. 

Eat shit

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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I'm someone who tries to acknowledge his mistakes and learn from them, so as not to repeat them. Well, I'm guilty of something that a great majority of us Texas fans have been guilty of, and I'm trying to learn from it. 

When we fired Mack and were looking at prospective replacements, pretty much all of us felt that Texas was "too big" or "too good" for a coach like Dabo Swinney; our basketball fans said the same thing about Jay Wright when Barnes was canned. Pretty much none of us wanted to even consider either of these guys, and as it turns out both are completely capable of reaching the highest heights of his respective sport. While I'm not convinced that the guy I'm about to name can win an actual NCAA championship at Texas, I've come to the conclusion that too many Texas fans, myself included, have written him off unfairly, without giving him a hard enough look. 

Im talking about Buzz Williams. He's from Texas; he's 46 years old; he was an instant success at Marquette and his program pretty much only got better, reaching the Sweet 16 and then the Elite 8, twice winning the Big East when it was a super competitive conference that was easily on par with the current Big XII. Now he's got Virginia Tech looking good, and the computers like them too: Va Tech is #10 according to KenPom, #7 in AdjO and #35 in AdjD. He's proven that he can win in a big league, he's still young, and he would absolutely leave Va Tech for Texas. We wouldn't even have to give him half of what we'd have to give our ideal candidates salary wise either.

Shaka's goose is cooked. He's had more than enough time to prove a competent coach and program leader and he has failed. There is no reason to keep him beyond this season; if one can accept this truth, then one must also accept that Shaka has to be replaced post haste. Buzz will be available and would be grateful for the opportunity. I'll be keeping my eye on Virginia Tech as the year goes on. If they continue to play at a high level then there's no reason not to look at Buzz Williams.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62141

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1 hour ago, Goo Punch said:

I'm someone who tries to acknowledge his mistakes and learn from them, so as not to repeat them. Well, I'm guilty of something that a great majority of us Texas fans have been guilty of, and I'm trying to learn from it. 

When we fired Mack and were looking at prospective replacements, pretty much all of us felt that Texas was "too big" or "too good" for a coach like Dabo Swinney; our basketball fans said the same thing about Jay Wright when Barnes was canned. Pretty much none of us wanted to even consider either of these guys, and as it turns out both are completely capable of reaching the highest heights of his respective sport. While I'm not convinced that the guy I'm about to name can win an actual NCAA championship at Texas, I've come to the conclusion that too many Texas fans, myself included, have written him off unfairly, without giving him a hard enough look. 

Im talking about Buzz Williams. He's from Texas; he's 46 years old; he was an instant success at Marquette and his program pretty much only got better, reaching the Sweet 16 and then the Elite 8, twice winning the Big East when it was a super competitive conference that was easily on par with the current Big XII. Now he's got Virginia Tech looking good, and the computers like them too: Va Tech is #10 according to KenPom, #7 in AdjO and #35 in AdjD. He's proven that he can win in a big league, he's still young, and he would absolutely leave Va Tech for Texas. We wouldn't even have to give him half of what we'd have to give our ideal candidates salary wise either.

Shaka's goose is cooked. He's had more than enough time to prove a competent coach and program leader and he has failed. There is no reason to keep him beyond this season; if one can accept this truth, then one must also accept that Shaka has to be replaced post haste. Buzz will be available and would be grateful for the opportunity. I'll be keeping my eye on Virginia Tech as the year goes on. If they continue to play at a high level then there's no reason not to look at Buzz Williams.

Maybe look closer to home in terms of candidates as well. We’ll see, but we’ve home grown some guys who can coach. It could be an interesting list if Smart doesn’t take it into the second weekend and show real growth. 

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immortal13

immortal13 4059

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1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Maybe look closer to home in terms of candidates as well. We’ll see, but we’ve home grown some guys who can coach. It could be an interesting list if Smart doesn’t take it into the second weekend and show real growth. 

We barely, and I mean barely, made the tourney last year with an nba lottery pick on the roster. I'm finding it harder and harder to convince myself that Texas will be found anywhere on the NCAA bracket this year.

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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8 hours ago, immortal13 said:

We barely, and I mean barely, made the tourney last year with an nba lottery pick on the roster. I'm finding it harder and harder to convince myself that Texas will be found anywhere on the NCAA bracket this year.

The fact that Texas has wasted Turner, Allen and Bamba en route to zero tournament wins blows my mind.

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3 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

I would assume with Chris Beard's recent extension his acquisition cost would be on the same order as the cost of Shaka's walking papers.

Texas fans acting like they can pull Beard away just because they want him is almost as satisfying as having a Tech hoops coach who other schools want.

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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6 minutes ago, slorch said:

For hoops coaches, maybe Texas needs to realize that...

This is funny - and I agree - but to expound on your point, "destination" jobs in college hoops are often the jobs that pay you the most. 

Texas isn't a destination if you want to be spoon-fed a contending program. They have one Final Four appearance in the past 80 years. It IS a destination if you want to collect 7 figures and live in Austin - and try and contend while you're at it. 

To add to the issue - college basketball recruiting is much more of a National game than a Regional one. You don't get DFW and Houston just because you're in Austin. Texas' best player ever was from DC. 

It's like coaching the now-defunct San Diego Chargers. You don't go there to win a Super Bowl. You go there because it's San Diego. 

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justhookit

justhookit 4174

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19 hours ago, RichUT said:

I’m confident that the athletics department can’t and/or won’t foot the full bill for the buyout. If CDC wants to remove Shaka, he’ll have to put feelers out to big money to see how much they are willing to fork over to expedite Shaka’s exit. I’d be super interested to see how important basketball relevancy is to that crowd, as I’ve long operated under the assumption that the answer to that question is “not very”. If I’m right, he’ll stick around for at least another year. If I’ve misjudged it, we’ll be in the market for a new coach.

I know the Dallas crowd has been extremely supportive of basketball. Baker Montgomery and that group which includes Mike Myers. In Austin Joe Arragona can get a lot done. San Antonio, at least the Alamo heights crowd  basically couldn’t give two fucks. I have no idea about Houston. But I don’t think money is an issue.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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Just now, Tired Horn said:

Sadly, Shaka seems to be reaching the point where the fans are giving up and descending into apathy. It's going to get ugly if he can't somehow prove us all wrong and this goes on for another couple years.

How many people attend the games typically ?  That's a pretty big hall to fill as it is now.

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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Pulling beard would be insanely difficult.  Especially after this season.  You're looking  at $12.9mm to shaka and then beard just signed an $19mm extension this year.  I can't imagine that there isn't a buyout in there that isn't at least 30% of his contract value.  Which would mean that for UT to look west and make a move you're going to spend around $18-$20mm just to get a coach.  That doesn't include that you are going to give him a pay bump from his $3mm salary.  It will have to be enough to make a jump so let's say you add another $1-$1.5mm in cost to what you are paying right now.  That's a massive number and frankly, exactly what aggie would do.  You'd have to give him a 10 year contract just to justify the acquisition cost and he'd effectively be a top 5 costing coach (salary plus buyouts amortized over 10 years).  That move isn't happening for UT.  I would jerk off onto a live cobra if that move happened this year.

Buzz Williams is a damn solid coach.  He'll win and be in the top half of the conference.  I'd love to see him at a bigger program like UT because he could be a guy that lands at Kansas in 5 years.  That being said, I'd also love to see what beard can do at a next level program because I would also have him at the top of my wish list if I could see his recruiting tick up at a better destination.

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Js1

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4 hours ago, justhookit said:

I know the Dallas crowd has been extremely supportive of basketball. Baker Montgomery and that group which includes Mike Myers. In Austin Joe Arragona can get a lot done. San Antonio, at least the Alamo heights crowd  basically couldn’t give two fucks. I have no idea about Houston. But I don’t think money is an issue.

The Houston big money guys did their big money thing to pay off Charlie and Tom's buyouts.

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6 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

We're Texas, son

Bet you $100 Specs giftcard or dinner for the same at Buck’s BBQ  that Chris Beard is not the basketball coach at Texas for the 2019-2020 season. 

 

Still feel froggy?  Let’s go...

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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3 minutes ago, slorch said:

Bet you $100 Specs giftcard or dinner for the same at Buck’s BBQ  that Chris Beard is not the basketball coach at Texas for the 2019-2020 season. 

 

Still feel froggy?  Let’s go...

I'm game if he wants to double down. But I'm hoping immortal was joking. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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If Texas is going to buyout Smart they need to temper expectations with a lesser-name hire - maybe on a 3 year deal. Someone in the $2MM-$2.5MM range that didn't just sign a 6 year, $20MM extension. 

Buzz Williams is under contract through 2023 and already making that amount. I don't know why either of their names are being floated around. 

At this point you might as well keep Shaka for the year, see what happens and then look at the market going into 2019-2020. Hiring someone out of left-field and letting him play with house-money could behoove Texas. It's not like UT has anything to lose at this point but money.  

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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4 minutes ago, Machinator said:

You say this as if Shaka was actually in danger of getting fired midseason.

I say that because if buying him out after this season is an option then I would have bought him out after last season.Also because there are probably people wanting him gone tomorrow (there are - I've seen the posts). UT isn't going to can him 15 games in - that would be ridiculous. He has enough meat left on his contract where there's still a chance he turns it around and buys another year with a SS run. 

I don't think this team is going to make that run, but the hole has been dug already. Better to wear out the storm as bad as it could get (like 9th in the big 12 no tournament bid bad).

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Hamttx

Hamttx 419

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On 12/3/2018 at 5:22 PM, Goo Punch said:

I really believe it's the latter. Because whether or not we want to admit it, on some level every single one of us believes in the "We're Texas" mantra, and for good reason. "We are the Joneses", as DeLoss famously said. These aren't just catch phrases, these are things that all Texas fans deep down believe and know to be true. We don't run around shouting it from the rooftops, but at the end of the day there isn't a person alive who supports Texas athletics who doesn't believe that we should always have the best of everything in every sport, no excuses. We have the money, we have the facilities, we have the history, and therefore we have the expectation. Winning again in football and baseball is only going to remind people that our basketball program is one coaching hire away from being right back where it needs to be.

But funny thing about “we’re Texas” and the money. For as much as money Texas has, and I’m sure it’s a shit load. And how far above everyone else we may feel about playing the role of the Jones’. How do you quantify return?

Universities believed to posses far fewer resources have gotten far more return. Looking at schools like UConn, Duke, Kentucky, all have managed to be far more successful all while being perceived as having far, far fewer resources then Texas.

Unfortunately this holds true in football as well. Though we do have a recent title in 05, the other three occurred in a far different era. 

Only baseball has managed to rise up and go title hunting at least once a decade. So where exactly does this perceived advantage of wealth come into play? When over the course of the last 45 years the results simply do not support that having more money then the other guys equals any more success then those that barely get by? 

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I did not neg immortal.  

I love good banter.  Not a fucking thing in the world wrong with it 

bet still stands.  No shenanigans. No technicalities like spelling his name wrong or some shit. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43262

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18 minutes ago, Hamttx said:

Unfortunately this holds true in football as well. Though we do have a recent title in 05, the other three occurred in a far different era.

Saying it holds true in football is recency bias. Texas football just went through one of its worst stretches ever. Akers was a game away in 3 different seasons from an MNC - '77, '81, '83. Conference titles in '90, '94, '95, '96. Ricky won a Heisman for Texas in '98. Mack was a game away from playing in the BCS title game twice before '05. We were arguably the best team in the country in '08 and '09 and as hard as we fell were still winning 7-9 games a season from '10-'13. 4 dogshit years later and Texas is back playing for conference championships and playing on New Year's.

Not trying to drift off topic but the basketball program really isn't comparable. Basketball is also much less about resources as you only need about 8 great players, a good coach and a small, highly invested fanbase to make a deep tourney run. It's really apples and oranges. The amount of schools that have historically great football and basketball programs you can count on one hand.

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immortal13

immortal13 4059

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1 hour ago, slorch said:

Bet you $100 Specs giftcard or dinner for the same at Buck’s BBQ  that Chris Beard is not the basketball coach at Texas for the 2019-2020 season. 

 

Still feel froggy?  Let’s go...

I meant in general, bro. I don't get into the whole coaching wish list nonsense, nor do I even know much of anything about coaches at other schools, or give a fuck. Besides I have no fucking clue what Specs is

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