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Fire Shaka Smart

smokebomb

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Red Five
Red Five

That is tough to accomplish in four years, but I wouldn't put it past Shaka.

immamac
immamac
Camelback80
Camelback80

Shaka should definitely get at least one more year. Many of his recruits will finally be upperclassmen by then, and he'll have his best shot of any year he's been here. Fans need to realize 2 maj

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50000

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Machinator said:

https://twitter.com/_delconte/

Go wild.

Any examples where a reduced early buyout has been done in the past for college basketball coaches??

(Might be too much now, but if Shaka struggles again next Season maybe Texas can save $1-2 million with a lump sum payment and no restrictions for Shaka??)

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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4 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Any examples where a reduced early buyout has been done in the past for college basketball coaches??

(Might be too much now, but if Shaka struggles again next Season maybe Texas can save $1-2 million with a lump sum payment and no restrictions for Shaka??)

That would make more sense if Shaka didn't have a chance at finding a landing spot.

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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

By all indications, 8-10 would get a team in.  We just did it a year ago! As did OU. 

I don't think 8-10 will get [ b]this[/b] team in. That would mean losing five of our last seven regular season games, including what would be a pretty stinky home court loss to TCU (in order to finish 8-10, we have to lose to one of OSU, OU, or TCU, and TCU's the best of those three). Our non-conference is at best a push-- great wins over UNC and Purdue, millstoned by the losses to Providence, Radford and Georgia. 

I've been saying for weeks I thought we'd go 9-9 and get in. Then we beat Kansas, which put us a game ahead of that pace. Now we've lost to KSU, which puts us right back on it. So I still think we're getting in. But if we go 8-10 in conference, we need to win 2 in the Big 12 tournament.

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MotownHorn

MotownHorn 1900

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5 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Not sure why anyone thinks this team is making the tournament this year. 6-6 in conference, 6 conference games left, and only OSU should be considered a sure win. 3 road games, and Texas is 2-5 in true road games on the year, the other 2 home games are against teams that have already beat Texas, and are better teams with better coaching.

 

15-16, 7-11 isn't getting Texas into any tournament.

They're as likely to go 5-1 as 1-5 (both are highly unlikely).

I think they'll end up right at 9-9.

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chase25

chase25 2048

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Committee removed the last 10 games bullshit metric

Committee looks at:  league strength (Big 12 #1 RPI), NCSOS (#38), SOS (#3), Q1 wins (4)

8-10 will do it.

There is a difference between 19-14 (8-10) and 17-15 (8-10). Assuming Texas goes 3-3 and loses their first game in the Big 12 tournament which is what a poster above that initially sparked this debate said, it would probably be highly unlikely that Texas gets in. If Texas finishes the regular season 17-14, win a game in the Big 12 tournament and they are in, lose, and they are praying to the basketball gods.

OU finished the regular season last year 18-12. You can't just say "so and so finished 8-10 in conference last year and got in so we will this year as well".

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Js1

Js1 87179

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

It is no longer an expressly stated metric but I guarantee that your play down the stretch is factored in, the same way bad losses subjectively offset good wins.

Unless there's a bunch of bid stealers, we're making it at 8-10.

OU made it last year at 8-10 (18-14), finishing 3-7 down the stretch and losing in the Big 12 tourney in game 1.

They had the #88 NCSOS and #13 SOS.  Worse metrics than we have currently.

6 wins in Quadrant 1.

It's truly moot - if this team actually plays like it is capable, we finish 3-3, which is exactly what the models have for us (9-9) and we're in.  We might even finish 4-2, because we've been known to steal games we shouldn't win and we're completely in, not even on the bubble.  But we could easily finish 2-3 because we tend to blow games we should win.  This bipolar team can't figure itself out. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14956

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Unless there's a bunch of bid stealers, we're making it at 8-10.

OU made it last year at 8-10 (18-14), finishing 3-7 down the stretch and losing in the Big 12 tourney in game 1.

They had the #88 NCSOS and #13 SOS.  Worse metrics than we have currently.

6 wins in Quadrant 1.

 

the wildcard with OU was the Trae Young effect and overcame the NCSOS. we don't have that.  I would say we are in for sure with 8-10 and one tourney win. 8-10 and a bounce out we have to hope the Q1 wins and NCSOS get us the bid.

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chase25

chase25 2048

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2 minutes ago, Machinator said:

You're right, but the bubble is even weaker this year.

Yep, and we are all trying to predict the unpredictable, I just don't believe a 17-15 (8-10) Texas team gets in even in a year where mid-majors are down and the Big 12 is yet again a top 2 RPI conference. At some point you can't be rewarded for mediocrity and 17-15 is a pretty fair line to draw that decision at. If almost every conference tournament goes chalk and Texas slides in as an 11 seed so be it.

A fart will last longer in the NCAA tournament than we will so its really a mute point.

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

the wildcard with OU was the Trae Young effect and overcame the NCSOS. we don't have that.  I would say we are in for sure with 8-10 and one tourney win. 8-10 and a bounce out we have to hope the Q1 wins and NCSOS get us the bid.

OU wasn't even a First Four team. Trae Young or not, it's clear that the committee thought their resume was worthy.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nolacycling said:

Year 5. Show improvement. Huh?

The only reason he's still here is because we owe him so much money. He will be back next year because we owe him so much money. We owe him a lot of money.

Man I don’t know about y’all but I’m starting to think that hiring Stevie P instead of Oliver Luck was probably a mistake. 

Who in the fuck made that call anyway? If I recall I think it was some bullshit committee. Stevie P “blew them away” in his interview if im membering correctly. 

Yeah right. Those people need to be named and shamed. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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1 minute ago, TXSooner518 said:

Texas is definitely in with their collection of wins and SOS at 8-10 in the B12. I'll wager whatever anyone wants. 

You can't just compare teams by overall records and conference records. 

It happens every year. We've been mediocre for so long you'd think people would have figured it out by now.

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Js1

Js1 87179

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Posted
10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

hmm didn't know it would be a Q1.  good news.

TCU at home is also possibly Q1.  RPI #26

Texas is currently 4-7 in Q1 (counting last night)

We still have:

@ OU (#32)
ISU (#25)
@ Tech (#20)
TCU (#26)

2 wins in there gets us 6 Q1 wins.  Anything else is bonus. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TCU at home is also possibly Q1.  RPI #26

Texas is currently 4-7 in Q1 (counting last night)

We still have:

@ OU (#32)
ISU (#25)
@ Tech (#20)
TCU (#26)

2 wins in there gets us 6 Q1 wins.  Anything else is bonus. 

I know it's habit, but remember that the committee uses NET, not RPI.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

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chase25

chase25 2048

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9 minutes ago, Machinator said:

It happens every year. We've been mediocre for so long you'd think people would have figured it out by now.

The worst record Texas has ever made the tournament with as an at-large is 19-14 (another Shaka Smart special). So to say that you think people should just assume by now that it is a foregone conclusion that Texas would get in the tournament at 8-10, which would mean we finish the regular season 16-15, is absurd.

I agree that Texas basketball under Shaka Smart has perfected the art of pushing the limits of rewarding mediocrity but to say mediocre Texas teams consistently get in the tournament is false. Barnes two worst teams that got in the tournament were 19-12 and 20-13 post Big 12 tournament, that isn't mediocrity in my opinion.

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6205

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21 minutes ago, chase25 said:

The worst record Texas has ever made the tournament with as an at-large is 19-14 (another Shaka Smart special). So to say that you think people should just assume by now that it is a foregone conclusion that Texas would get in the tournament at 8-10, which would mean we finish the regular season 16-15, is absurd.

I agree that Texas basketball under Shaka Smart has perfected the art of pushing the limits of rewarding mediocrity but to say mediocre Texas teams consistently get in the tournament is false. Barnes two worst teams that got in the tournament were 19-12 and 20-13 post Big 12 tournament, that isn't mediocrity in my opinion.

You can't compare past years as to why or if a team gets in, we all realize shaka blows and I want him gone more than anyone but the bubble this year is the worse it's ever been. That's why people are saying if we go 3-3 down the stretch we are in. Yea we know if we go 1-5 our last 6 games we won't make it and anyone saying the obvious that we are probably making the tourney doesn't make us shaka fans we are just stating the obvious that some of you guys clearly can't read or do research. It's not our fault Texas has a strong rpi and SOS and yes I agree we look like shit but none of that changes the fact we probably make the tourney in a very very weak field of 68.

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Tired Horn

Tired Horn 836

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31 minutes ago, chase25 said:

The worst record Texas has ever made the tournament with as an at-large is 19-14 (another Shaka Smart special). So to say that you think people should just assume by now that it is a foregone conclusion that Texas would get in the tournament at 8-10, which would mean we finish the regular season 16-15, is absurd.

I agree that Texas basketball under Shaka Smart has perfected the art of pushing the limits of rewarding mediocrity but to say mediocre Texas teams consistently get in the tournament is false. Barnes two worst teams that got in the tournament were 19-12 and 20-13 post Big 12 tournament, that isn't mediocrity in my opinion.

I like to think that Shaka has found his ultimate artistic expression in a distillation of mediocrity so utterly pure that, in another year or two, fans will no longer even be able to remember that Texas has a men's basketball team. 

He's the Walter White of boring, pointless, "who could possibly care" basketball. 

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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

You can't compare past years as to why or if a team gets in, we all realize shaka blows and I want him gone more than anyone but the bubble this year is the worse it's ever been. That's why people are saying if we go 3-3 down the stretch we are in. Yea we know if we go 1-5 our last 6 games we won't make it and anyone saying the obvious that we are probably making the tourney doesn't make us shaka fans we are just stating the obvious that some of you guys clearly can't read or do research. It's not our fault Texas has a strong rpi and SOS and yes I agree we look like shit but none of that changes the fact we probably make the tourney in a very very weak field of 68.

Everyone here hates the product on the court as much as the next Lazy-Boy Coach sitting in their living room on this site.

But the fact of the matter is, the metrics for making the tournament (conference strength, NCSOS, SOS, Q1 wins) are in our favor if we go 3-3 down the stretch.  Anything less and it's dicey. 

The committee doesn't care how much we want Shaka gone.  They're going to put Texas with an 8-10 or 9-9 conference record in the tournament unless there's chaos in the conference tournaments and a bunch of bad teams steal bids in P5 and G5 leagues.  Think like, West Virginia or OK State winning the Big 12 tournament or WSU winning the Pac 12 tournament level chaos. 

Edited by Js1
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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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7 hours ago, juicytoot said:

$1000 says Barnes doesn't get past the first weekend.

This post is emblematic of how hilariously misinformed pretty much everyone is on this topic. Rick Barnes is not a coach whose been known to get bounced out in the early rounds with teams that should make deep runs- Bill Self is, Jay Wright is, Tony Bennett is...but nobody, not Texas fans, not your average CBB fan, nobody seems to realize that. 

Speaking of Tony Bennett, it's absurd that people talk the way they do about Rick Barnes and not about Bennett. Hell, that ridiculous 538 metric that MoTownHorn was quoting says that Bennett is a much better tourney coach than Barnes. ORLY? 

2007- 3 seed, lost to 6 seed Vandy

2008- 4 seed lost to 1 seed UNC by 21

2009- NIT one and done

2010- NA

2011- NA

2012- 10 seed lost to 7 seed Florida 71-45

2013- NIT quarterfinal 

2014- 1 seed lost to 4 seed Sparty

2015- 2 seed lost to 7 seed Sparty

2016- 1 seed lost to 10 seed Syracuse in EE

2017- 5 seed lost to 4 seed Florida 65-39

2018- no.1 overall seed lost to 16 seed UMBC 84-64

I mean it is not even close. Rick Barnes looks like Adolph Rupp compared to Tony Bennett, yet we have fans, and even "metrics" which all say otherwise. Mostly because of Bill Simmons. Well here's a life pro tip for you- if you ever want to win a bar bet with another college hoops fan, just quiz them on Rick Barnes' tournament record and then use google to prove them wrong when they insist that he's the worst tournament coach ever. 

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6205

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1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

This thread should splint into 3: a) Shaka sucks and should be fired, b) Will we make the tournament? c) foolishly engage Derka re: Rick Barnes

I think the point is we all want shaka fired and some people on here don't understand that saying we will make the tourney because of the facts doesn't make anyone a "shaka apologist". 

It's no one's fault on here that Texas has the data to keep them off the bubble because the bubble is the wrose it's ever been yet someone will come up 3 posts later because they don't fucking read saying "how can anyone think we are making the tourney wtf", when it is clearly 2-3 posts above them. Then you have Htown pulling his classic post after a close loss "Fuck we will lose every game left and go 16-17". 

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VinyVango

VinyVango 708

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at some point the bad losses gotta sink the good wins... I don't think we have a chance at the NCAA absent 18 wins.  I'm hoping for better, but fear we end up in the NIT and get spanked by some team like South Carolina, Oregon, Indiana or Florida after a competitive 1st half.  

I am particularly bothered by our recent tendency to aggressively double-team the opposing post and aggressively hedge screens without rotating to cover the 2nd man who is rolling in for the layup.  The line-up with Febres as the second big man is horrific on defense.   He was covering Wade man-to-man on numerous possessions in the 2nd half of our last game and it was not pretty.

The deferral to Roach to "make something happen" in the last 4 minutes of games has killed us all year.  He's been really good when conditioned to drive the paint, and there's no excuse for continually letting him pull the dribble for 20 seconds and jack up the James Harden step back long 3.  

When DO bricks several 1 foot shots, he needs to sit and Hamm (not Febres) needs to be his replacement for defense and rebounding.

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chase25

chase25 2048

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35 minutes ago, VinyVango said:

at some point the bad losses gotta sink the good wins... I don't think we have a chance at the NCAA absent 18 wins. 

What are you talking about, according to experts you should be used to .500 Texas basketball teams making the tournament, apparently it happens all the time in an alternative reality that we are not aware of.

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Red Five

Red Five 41736

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Posted
12 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

If we finish 8-10 in conference, lose the first game of the conference tournament, and make the NCAA tournament with a 16-16 record then the tournament should just contract back to 32.   Has a .500 team ever been given an at large berth before?  Didn’t we basically have that same record in Barnes’s worst year and we had to go to the CBI because the NIT wouldn’t even take that crap?

Edit -  Looked it up and, yes, that Barnes team finished the regular season 16-17, 7-11 in conference, and lost the first round CBI game to finish 16-18.   If Shaka can basically replicate the worst Barnes year that got Barnes fired and somehow make it into the NCAAs rendering it impossible for us to fire Shaka for another year, then the only explanation I have is that there must be some sort of voodoo curse at play here.

I did some research. This came from collegerpi.com

Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)
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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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48 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I did some research. This came from collegerpi.com

 

Arizona's post-tourney KenPom ranking: 23

Michigan State's post-tourney KenPom ranking: 45 

Texas' current KenPom ranking: 27

The acceptance of advanced metrics in the last few years has significantly changed how the committee picks teams; they all have access to Pomeroy now, as an example. Win/Loss record still matters, but there's a lot more data available to them than there was even a decade ago. That's why 8-10 conference records are more viable than they were previously, plus as others have stated the bubble is enormous this year. The PAC-12 normally sends 3-5 teams to the tourney and they might be a single-big league this year because they're garbage, that's 2-4 at-large spots available to teams who might otherwise end up the the NIT. There's a lot more room to get in as an at-large than in most years.

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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1 minute ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

Arizona's post-tourney KenPom ranking: 23

Michigan State's post-tourney KenPom ranking: 45 

Texas' current KenPom ranking: 27

The acceptance of advanced metrics in the last few years has significantly changed how the committee picks teams; they all have access to Pomeroy now, as an example. Win/Loss record still matters, but there's a lot more data available to them than there was even a decade ago. That's why 8-10 conference records are more viable than they were previously, plus as others have stated the bubble is enormous this year. The PAC-12 normally sends 3-5 teams to the tourney and they might be a single-big league this year because they're garbage, that's 2-4 at-large spots available to teams who might otherwise end up the the NIT. There's a lot more room to get in as an at-large than in most years.

The AAC is also not great this year (Wichita State is down, UCONN is still rebuilding). Some of this will open up spots from stellar teams in low-major conferences (Lipscomb, Wofford, Buffalo), but the vacuum in the upper middle class of college basketball conferences means that you'll see expanded opportunities for middling teams in the tough conferences (ACC, Big 12, B1G).

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ztejas

ztejas 44228

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Posted
13 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

If we finish 8-10 in conference, lose the first game of the conference tournament, and make the NCAA tournament with a 16-16 record then the tournament should just contract back to 32.

How amazing would 32 teams be with a BO3 final four series and a winner-take-all title game. 

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ztejas

ztejas 44228

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Posted
Just now, Machinator said:

The AAC is also not great this year (Wichita State is down, UCONN is still rebuilding). Some of this will open up spots from stellar teams in low-major conferences (Lipscomb, Wofford, Buffalo), but the vacuum in the upper middle class of college basketball conferences means that you'll see expanded opportunities for middling teams in the tough conferences (ACC, Big 12, B1G).

Yep. AAC sometimes sends 4 or 5 teams. I don't think we send more than 2 this season. Houston and Nati are probably the only locks. Everyone else kind of fucking sucks. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

The PAC-12 normally sends 3-5 teams to the tourney and they might be a single-big league this year because they're garbage, that's 2-4 at-large spots available to teams who might otherwise end up the the NIT. There's a lot more room to get in as an at-large than in most years.

Just now, Machinator said:

The AAC is also not great this year (Wichita State is down, UCONN is still rebuilding). Some of this will open up spots from stellar teams in low-major conferences (Lipscomb, Wofford, Buffalo), but the vacuum in the upper middle class of college basketball conferences means that you'll see expanded opportunities for middling teams in the tough conferences (ACC, Big 12, B1G).

The Big East isn't great either. 

Combined the Big East, Pac 12, and AAC got 12 bids last year. It's probably getting 6-9 bids this year at most. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

If we finish 8-10 in conference, lose the first game of the conference tournament, and make the NCAA tournament with a 16-16 record then the tournament should just contract back to 32.   Has a .500 team ever been given an at large berth before?  Didn’t we basically have that same record in Barnes’s worst year and we had to go to the CBI because the NIT wouldn’t even take that crap?

Edit -  Looked it up and, yes, that Barnes team finished the regular season 16-17, 7-11 in conference, and lost the first round CBI game to finish 16-18.   If Shaka can basically replicate the worst Barnes year that got Barnes fired and somehow make it into the NCAAs rendering it impossible for us to fire Shaka for another year, then the only explanation I have is that there must be some sort of voodoo curse at play here.

This year seems to be worse than most, but it does feel like every season this decade I have heard the phrase "the bubble is soft". I wouldn't mind contraction, but the almighty dollar says that will never happen.

Edited by Machinator
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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2455

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm almost positive Vandy got in at 17-14 one year.  It's also very rare that a team with a record like Texas' has so many good wins and so few bad losses. Also, as has been posted, the bubble is really weak this year. Leagues like the A-10 and even the Pac-12 are very likely to be single bid leagues. 

EDIT: Slightly off. Vandy got in the 2017 tourney with a 19-15 record, which is worse than 18-14 though. They were also a 9 seed, indicating they weren't even that close to the cut line.

Villanova in 1991 and UGA in 2001 got at-large bids at 16-14, K-State 1990 got in at 17-14.

Edited by TXSooner518
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