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Fire Shaka Smart

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Katfid54

Katfid54 9005

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52 minutes ago, Dirk X West said:

I haven't chosen not to believe it.  Chris Beard being interested in the UT job is entirely plausible, which is all anyone has to go on here, and how plausible is a matter of (ultimately meaningless) debate. 

What I'm saying is unsubstantiated reports posted by an anonymous person on a college sports message board don't prove a thing either way.  

 

He's not anonymous, dumbass. You could find out his identity in 45 seconds if you wanted to.

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Red Five
Red Five

That is tough to accomplish in four years, but I wouldn't put it past Shaka.

immamac
immamac
Camelback80
Camelback80

Shaka should definitely get at least one more year. Many of his recruits will finally be upperclassmen by then, and he'll have his best shot of any year he's been here. Fans need to realize 2 maj

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Katfid54

Katfid54 9005

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Dirk X West said:

Based on what you've said, knowing his name wouldn't increase his credibility, but besides that, why does this upset you so?  Is he your cousin?

Because you keep repeating the same worthless things that have already been disproved by several posters, just based on your own say-so.  But you're right.  I should just block you and move on.

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Dirk X West

Dirk X West 772

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11 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

Because you keep repeating the same worthless things that have already been disproved by several posters, just based on your own say-so.  But you're right.  I should just block you and move on.

I have no inside info; don't claim to.  I'm right there with 99.99% of the other folks on this board in that respect.

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19230

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So, uh, does anyone know if that Beard guy is any good at coaching basketball, or if he might be interested in coming to Austin?

ive seen some reports by a poster named disgruntledcaucasiandude, but he didn’t post his social security number or include an image of his thumbprint with his report, so I’m not inclined to believe him. 

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idigTexas

idigTexas 2330

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7 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

So, uh, does anyone know if that Beard guy is any good at coaching basketball, or if he might be interested in coming to Austin?

ive seen some reports by a poster named disgruntledcaucasiandude, but he didn’t post his social security number or include an image of his thumbprint with his report, so I’m not inclined to believe him. 

Your mom said "yes, yes, yes," but that may have been about something else.

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Katfid54

Katfid54 9005

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9 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

So, uh, does anyone know if that Beard guy is any good at coaching basketball, or if he might be interested in coming to Austin?

ive seen some reports by a poster named disgruntledcaucasiandude, but he didn’t post his social security number or include an image of his thumbprint with his report, so I’m not inclined to believe him. 

Seriously.  If he has real interest in Austin, I don't see how CDC doesn't try to move heaven and earth to go get him as soon as the season is over.  He's a hell of a coach, recruiter, and Texas alum.  If we don't move this offseason, who knows what true bluebloods come calling next offseason?  It's such a no brainer to me (although, yes, I realize I'm spending other people's money here), and it's totally consistent with CDC's hiring MO.

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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3 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

Seriously.  If he has real interest in Austin, I don't see how CDC doesn't try to move heaven and earth to go get him as soon as the season is over.  He's a hell of a coach, recruiter, and Texas alum.  If we don't move this offseason, who knows what true bluebloods come calling next offseason?  It's such a no brainer to me (although, yes, I realize I'm spending other people's money here), and it's totally consistent with CDC's hiring MO.

$20M isn't no-brainer money for basketball.

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Katfid54

Katfid54 9005

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Just now, Machinator said:

$20M isn't no-brainer money for basketball.

I mean, this has been discussed before, but the marginal $$$ are much less than $20mm. 

You've already spent $12mm on Shaka.  There's nothing you can do about that.  Whether you fire him now for $12mm or next year for $9mm or in 5 years when his deal fully runs out, you're spending $12mm on Shaka.  That's a sunk cost, and CDC will view it as such.

The marginal cost of hiring Beard is paying his buyout to Tech (whatever that is, although no one has indicated it's anything outrageous) and paying his new salary (another $4-5mm/year).  That's no-brainer money.

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Katfid54 said:

I mean, this has been discussed before, but the marginal $$$ are much less than $20mm. 

You've already spent $12mm on Shaka.  There's nothing you can do about that.  Whether you fire him now for $12mm or next year for $9mm or in 5 years when his deal fully runs out, you're spending $12mm on Shaka.  That's a sunk cost, and CDC will view it as such.

The marginal cost of hiring Beard is paying his buyout to Tech (whatever that is, although no one has indicated it's anything outrageous) and paying his new salary (another $4-5mm/year).  That's no-brainer money.

If it's no-brainer money, then CDC would have the deal done.

Or he would have engaged in the bidding war for Buzz.

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rickyspub

rickyspub 801

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12 minutes ago, Machinator said:

If it's no-brainer money, then CDC would have the deal done.

Or he would have engaged in the bidding war for Buzz.

You make this sound like it has already been written in stone. I haven't heard that Buzz is even leaving VT. I thought he was still playing for a national championship. Did your bot-level NSA access reveal the signed contract with aggy? Beard is going to cause a bidding war, though it may just be within the confines of Tech's admins. I am confident neither will be the coach at Texas in 2 years if they aren't our coach next season. I know I'll be pissed if we fire Shaka next season and replace him with another lottery ticket hire from a mid-major that played above seed once in the tournament.

 

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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5 minutes ago, rickyspub said:

You make this sound like it has already been written in stone. I haven't heard that Buzz is even leaving VT. I thought he was still playing for a national championship. Did your bot-level NSA access reveal the signed contract with aggy? Beard is going to cause a bidding war, though it may just be within the confines of Tech's admins. I am confident neither will be the coach at Texas in 2 years if they aren't our coach next season. I know I'll be pissed if we fire Shaka next season and replace him with another lottery ticket hire from a mid-major that played above seed once in the tournament.

 

Even VT boards have conceded that Buzz is gone unless he makes a miracle run to the Final Four.

Timing is everything with coaching changes. We had it on our side with football, perhaps not so much in basketball.

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rickyspub

rickyspub 801

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Just now, Machinator said:

Even VT boards have conceded that Buzz is gone unless he makes a miracle run to the Final Four.

Timing is everything with coaching changes. We had it on our side with football, perhaps not so much in basketball.

And the Tech people are adamant that Beard stays. What does that tell us? VT fans think their AD won't get into a bidding war and/or that Buzz wants out no matter what. Tech fans here think Beard wants to stay at Tech and Tech will pay to keep him. No different than most of here think Shaka stays because of the high buyout. But nothing has happened. Games are still being played (on the court and likely in backrooms with agents) and no public moves have been made regarding any of these coaches. For all we know the Buzz to aggy talk is just a misdirection for Buzz to Texas.

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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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10 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

So, uh, does anyone know if that Beard guy is any good at coaching basketball, or if he might be interested in coming to Austin?

ive seen some reports by a poster named disgruntledcaucasiandude, but he didn’t post his social security number or include an image of his thumbprint with his report, so I’m not inclined to believe him. 

Wait who did I send my social to then?

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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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The reasons why Beard would choose to leave Tech for Texas tend to center around intangibles like him being a Texas alum, which is reasonable to point out. However, the reasons why Beard would choose to stay at Tech also involve intangibles (he lived there for a dozen years as an assistant coach, ditched UNLV after 19 days and bought out his own deal to go to Tech) and tend to be more grounded in finances IMO. He's already being paid relatively close to Shaka-level money (they doubled his salary to $2.8mil/year and it escalates each season so the gap is closing), he's got a number of contract incentives to stay (he gets a $750k bonus if he's still the coach on Sep 1, 2020, as an example) plus Hocutt has openly stated he's willing to rework the deal this offseason to enhance things, so Tech is prepared to at least match what someone else will offer. Texas doesn't have a massive financial advantage in basketball like it does in football; it can't really money-whip a coach who is already making in the realm of $3m/year when Tech is up to offer something competitive. It's also worth noting that $4-5m/year would put Beard above all except a very few basketball coaches, and I haven't seen much from Texas indicating they're willing to crack the $4m/year mark for a basketball coach. Football, sure, but that's a much bigger revenue generator than basketball. Maybe a year from now the math makes more sense; the buyout for Beard will be a bit lower and the remaining guaranteed money for Shaka will be ~$3m less. I'm still skeptical though, as the regents are wholly uninterested in paying out that guarantee as a lump sum and CDC was unable to wrangle donors to foot the bill. If next season is a faceplant, maybe donors get grumpy enough to write a check.

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Machinator

Machinator 32103

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4 minutes ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

If next season is a faceplant, maybe donors get grumpy enough to write a check.

This is about hypothetically hiring Beard in 2020 and not firing Shaka, right? Surely having an underwhelming season in year 5 would be enough to axe him regardless of what's out there, especially with the new arena on the horzon.

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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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7 minutes ago, Machinator said:

This is about hypothetically hiring Beard in 2020 and not firing Shaka, right? Surely having an underwhelming season in year 5 would be enough to axe him regardless of what's out there, especially with the new arena on the horzon.

Sure, it's fair to say if Shaka has another season like this one he's probably sent packing.

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Dirk X West

Dirk X West 772

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14 minutes ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

The reasons why Beard would choose to leave Tech for Texas tend to center around intangibles like him being a Texas alum, which is reasonable to point out. However, the reasons why Beard would choose to stay at Tech also involve intangibles (he lived there for a dozen years as an assistant coach, ditched UNLV after 19 days and bought out his own deal to go to Tech) and tend to be more grounded in finances IMO. He's already being paid relatively close to Shaka-level money (they doubled his salary to $2.8mil/year and it escalates each season so the gap is closing), he's got a number of contract incentives to stay (he gets a $750k bonus if he's still the coach on Sep 1, 2020, as an example) plus Hocutt has openly stated he's willing to rework the deal this offseason to enhance things, so Tech is prepared to at least match what someone else will offer. Texas doesn't have a massive financial advantage in basketball like it does in football; it can't really money-whip a coach who is already making in the realm of $3m/year when Tech is up to offer something competitive. It's also worth noting that $4-5m/year would put Beard above all except a very few basketball coaches, and I haven't seen much from Texas indicating they're willing to crack the $4m/year mark for a basketball coach. Football, sure, but that's a much bigger revenue generator than basketball. Maybe a year from now the math makes more sense; the buyout for Beard will be a bit lower and the remaining guaranteed money for Shaka will be ~$3m less. I'm still skeptical though, as the regents are wholly uninterested in paying out that guarantee as a lump sum and CDC was unable to wrangle donors to foot the bill. If next season is a faceplant, maybe donors get grumpy enough to write a check.

This guy knows what he's talking about.

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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46 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

If 5-8 million is a deal breaker for a coach that would likely net us 40-50% more wins, then go ahead and just fold up the goddamn basketball program

 

 

Let us know when you are ready to cut that $5MM check boss.

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Lerka Lerka

Lerka Lerka 1097

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1 hour ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

The reasons why Beard would choose to leave Tech for Texas tend to center around intangibles like him being a Texas alum, which is reasonable to point out. However, the reasons why Beard would choose to stay at Tech also involve intangibles (he lived there for a dozen years as an assistant coach, ditched UNLV after 19 days and bought out his own deal to go to Tech) and tend to be more grounded in finances IMO. He's already being paid relatively close to Shaka-level money (they doubled his salary to $2.8mil/year and it escalates each season so the gap is closing), he's got a number of contract incentives to stay (he gets a $750k bonus if he's still the coach on Sep 1, 2020, as an example) plus Hocutt has openly stated he's willing to rework the deal this offseason to enhance things, so Tech is prepared to at least match what someone else will offer. Texas doesn't have a massive financial advantage in basketball like it does in football; it can't really money-whip a coach who is already making in the realm of $3m/year when Tech is up to offer something competitive. It's also worth noting that $4-5m/year would put Beard above all except a very few basketball coaches, and I haven't seen much from Texas indicating they're willing to crack the $4m/year mark for a basketball coach. Football, sure, but that's a much bigger revenue generator than basketball. Maybe a year from now the math makes more sense; the buyout for Beard will be a bit lower and the remaining guaranteed money for Shaka will be ~$3m less. I'm still skeptical though, as the regents are wholly uninterested in paying out that guarantee as a lump sum and CDC was unable to wrangle donors to foot the bill. If next season is a faceplant, maybe donors get grumpy enough to write a check.

This is a good post.  Only thing I have to add is have you ever been to fucking Lubbock?

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idigTexas

idigTexas 2330

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2 hours ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

The reasons why Beard would choose to leave Tech for Texas tend to center around intangibles like him being a Texas alum, which is reasonable to point out. However, the reasons why Beard would choose to stay at Tech also involve intangibles (he lived there for a dozen years as an assistant coach, ditched UNLV after 19 days and bought out his own deal to go to Tech) and tend to be more grounded in finances IMO. He's already being paid relatively close to Shaka-level money (they doubled his salary to $2.8mil/year and it escalates each season so the gap is closing), he's got a number of contract incentives to stay (he gets a $750k bonus if he's still the coach on Sep 1, 2020, as an example) plus Hocutt has openly stated he's willing to rework the deal this offseason to enhance things, so Tech is prepared to at least match what someone else will offer. Texas doesn't have a massive financial advantage in basketball like it does in football; it can't really money-whip a coach who is already making in the realm of $3m/year when Tech is up to offer something competitive. It's also worth noting that $4-5m/year would put Beard above all except a very few basketball coaches, and I haven't seen much from Texas indicating they're willing to crack the $4m/year mark for a basketball coach. Football, sure, but that's a much bigger revenue generator than basketball. Maybe a year from now the math makes more sense; the buyout for Beard will be a bit lower and the remaining guaranteed money for Shaka will be ~$3m less. I'm still skeptical though, as the regents are wholly uninterested in paying out that guarantee as a lump sum and CDC was unable to wrangle donors to foot the bill. If next season is a faceplant, maybe donors get grumpy enough to write a check.

That is a pretty big assumption.  If Tech is already planning to sweeten the pot to keep Beard, then the buyout may very well be even higher after next season.  CDC not being able to find donors to foot at least part of the expence appears to be a legitimate hindrance, but the wishful thinker in me wants to believe that if he can secure the right coach, the money to get it done will materialize.  We'll see. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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1 hour ago, idigTexas said:

That is a pretty big assumption.  If Tech is already planning to sweeten the pot to keep Beard, then the buyout may very well be even higher after next season.  CDC not being able to find donors to foot at least part of the expence appears to be a legitimate hindrance, but the wishful thinker in me wants to believe that if he can secure the right coach, the money to get it done will materialize.  We'll see. 

Maybe the best thing that could happen is Tech making it to the Final 4 so CDC can play to the ego of some of the big boys that would enjoy putting Tech back in their place.

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Caddox

Caddox 952

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CDC and at least a couple interested donors didn’t expect to miss the tourney. I know that for certain. I highly doubt that changes much and at that time I don’t think there was any real interest in paying another coach’s buyout to start fresh. 

My guess is CDC will check in with a few of our more basketball enthused donors just to take their temp but I’d be shocked if there’s enough financial support to make a move. CDC damn sure isn’t diverting dollars away from other projects to make it happen.

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pigmeat markham

pigmeat markham 135

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7 hours ago, Lerka Lerka said:

This is a good post.  Only thing I have to add is have you ever been to fucking Lubbock?

A fairly myopic view.  People's judgement criteria as to city preferences obviously vary considerably.  While Lubbock may not be your preference, there are those for which it is.

Even should Beard leave TT next week, I can assure you Lubbock will have nothing to do with it.  I know for a fact he genuinely likes living there.

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HookEm

HookEm 2509

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$3M a year in Lubbock goes a long ways.

Also he has a lot of history in West Texas. He coached at McMurry in Abilene (where he also went to grad school). He also coached two years at San Angelo state. That's not to mention the 11 years as an assistant at Tech. If he hated the panhandle he would have left a long time ago. Like me.

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pigmeat markham

pigmeat markham 135

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4 hours ago, HookEm said:

$3M a year in Lubbock goes a long ways.

Also he has a lot of history in West Texas. He coached at McMurry in Abilene (where he also went to grad school). He also coached two years at San Angelo state. That's not to mention the 11 years as an assistant at Tech. If he hated the panhandle he would have left a long time ago. Like me.

Don't forget about his 2 years at Abilene Christian either. 

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

If 5-8 million is a deal breaker for a coach that would likely net us 40-50% more wins, then go ahead and just fold up the goddamn basketball program

 

 

To be fair, UT fans don’t support the program like derka does. Cutting seating from 16,500 to ~10k take a lot of revenue generation off the table even if beard were to get UT to the final 4. With the smaller arena UT isn’t folding up shop but you are scaling it down quite a bit. Which if CDC sees each sport as its own profit and loss center (not sure if that’s his philosophy) then money whipping is very possibly off the table. Also, with how Hocutt has talked, beard’s buyout could be more than shaka’s. I’ve gone through the math and for what it might take to get bears UT basketball could put $40M-$50M of liabilities on the books in buyouts and contracts while also cutting revenue streams. There is a business side to this you know. 

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Js1

Js1 87179

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58 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

To be fair, UT fans don’t support the program like derka does. Cutting seating from 16,500 to ~10k take a lot of revenue generation off the table even if beard were to get UT to the final 4. With the smaller arena UT isn’t folding up shop but you are scaling it down quite a bit. Which if CDC sees each sport as its own profit and loss center (not sure if that’s his philosophy) then money whipping is very possibly off the table. Also, with how Hocutt has talked, beard’s buyout could be more than shaka’s. I’ve gone through the math and for what it might take to get bears UT basketball could put $40M-$50M of liabilities on the books in buyouts and contracts while also cutting revenue streams. There is a business side to this you know. 

We ain’t doing that. CDC ain’t dumb. 

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